每天一篇经济学人 | American politics 美国政治（202...

They are the questions hanging over America and, thus, the West. Will the man who tried to overturn the results of the presidential election in 2020, threatened to disband the world’s most powerful military alliance and played footsie with Vladimir Putin, decide that he wants to run again? If so, can he be stopped? It may seem premature to ask. But the first primary of 2024 is closer in time than the last general election, 94 weeks ago. And, despite his poor record in office and his unconscionable behaviour after America’s voters kicked him out, Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party has strengthened.

【1】play footsie with sb 与某人碰脚调情

【2】unconscionable 不合理的；过分的

这些问题一直困扰着美国，因此也困扰着西方。这个曾试图推翻2020年总统大选结果、威胁要解散世界上最强大的军事联盟、还曾与弗拉基米尔•普京“暧昧”的人，会决定再次参选吗？如果他决定参选，他能被阻止吗？现在提出这个问题似乎为时过早。但距离2024年的第一次初选，比94周前的上一次大选时间更近。而且，尽管唐纳德·特朗普执政期间的糟糕政绩，以及在美国选民把他赶下台后，他又表现出不合理行为，但他对共和党的控制却加强了。

The thumping defeat of Liz Cheney in her Wyoming primary this week matters, because it robs Congress of a brave, principled conservative, and because it fits a pattern. Not all the candidates endorsed by Mr Trump have won their primaries. But most of them have done so. Perhaps a greater sign of his influence is that many of the losing candidates sought his endorsement, too. These contests have not been over different flavours of conservatism, but over which contender is the most maga. Of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach the president for what he did on January 6th 2021, eight are either retiring or have been retired by primary voters. At the same time, the party’s nominees for key positions in some states’ administration of elections are people who support Mr Trump’s dangerous claim that the vote in 2020 was stolen.

利兹·切尼本周在怀俄明州初选中的惨败至关重要，因为它让国会失去了一位勇敢、有原则的保守派，也因为它符合一种模式。并非所有得到特朗普支持的候选人都赢得了初选。但他们中的大多数人已经赢得。也许他的影响力的一个更大的标志是，许多落选的候选人也寻求他的支持。这些竞争并不是关于不同风格的保守主义，而是看哪一个竞争者最有影响力。因特朗普在2021年1月6日的所作所为，众议院的10名共和党人投票弹劾总统，现在，有8人要么退休，要么已经在初选选民的“帮助”下“被迫”退休。与此同时，共和党在一些州的选举管理中提名关键职位的人，是支持特朗普有关2020年选票被盗的危险言论的人。

Early polling on whom Republican voters want as their champion in 2024 suggests that about 50% of them say Mr Trump. In a system where a candidate can knock out most rivals with a solid 30% of support in the early states, it is a formidable starting position. A few months ago Republican voters, tiring of Mr Trump, looked as if they might switch to Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, or anyone else offering maga without the drama. Today Mr DeSantis would be more likely to conclude that his best shot at the White House is as Mr Trump’s running-mate.

【1】knock out 淘汰

【2】running-mate 竞选伙伴

关于共和党选民希望谁成为2024年总统的早期民调显示，约50%的人回答说特朗普。在一个候选人可以在早期各州以30%的支持率击败大多数竞争对手的体系中，这是一个强大的起点。几个月前，厌倦了特朗普的共和党选民似乎可能会转而支持佛罗里达州州长罗恩•德桑蒂斯，或任何一个不带戏剧性的有影响力的人。如今，德桑蒂斯更有可能得出这样的结论：他入主白宫的最佳机会是成为特朗普的竞选伙伴。

A lot could change between now and the first Republican primary, but unless Mr Trump either decides he does not want to run, or something prevents him from doing so, it looks as if he would win the Republican nomination. That leads to the second question: could he be stopped?

从现在到第一次共和党初选之间，很多事情可能会发生变化，但除非特朗普决定他不想参选，或者有什么事情阻止他参选，否则他似乎会赢得共和党提名。这就引出了第二个问题：他能被阻止(参加竞选)吗?

One obstacle is the law. The most recent of the many investigations Mr Trump faces was revealed when the fbi came knocking at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. A lot remains unknown. The unsealed warrant says that the Department of Justice sought classified documents that Mr Trump took from the White House. Once his investigation is complete, the attorney-general, Merrick Garland, may decide that the documents are safe and his work is done. Whether a prosecution follows may depend on how sensitive the documents were.

其中一个绊脚石是法律。在特朗普面临的众多调查中，最近的一次是在本月早些时候FBI“搜查”海湖庄园时披露的。还有很多事情尚不清楚。这份公开的搜查令称，司法部寻找了特朗普从白宫拿走的机密文件。一旦调查完成，司法部长梅里克·加兰德可能会认定这些文件是安全的，他的工作也完成了。之后是否会被起诉，可能取决于这些文件的敏感程度。

Many Republicans, including Mr DeSantis, have rallied behind Mr Trump. The most vocal are calling for the impeachment of Mr Garland and demanding the defunding of the fbi—a double standard considering that they wanted Hillary Clinton to be locked up for her use of a private email server. However, Democrats should remember that the precedent cuts both ways: in 2016 the Justice Department declined to prosecute Mrs Clinton.

包括德桑蒂斯在内的许多共和党人已经团结起来支持特朗普。呼声最高的是要求弹劾加兰德，并要求撤资联邦调查局——考虑到他们想让希拉里•克林顿因使用私人电子邮件服务器而被关押，这是双标。然而，民主党人应该记住，先例有利有弊：2016年，司法部拒绝起诉希拉里。

Three other investigations—into whether Mr Trump lied on his tax returns, whether he broke the law on January 6th, and whether he took part in a criminal conspiracy to overturn the election in Fulton County, Georgia, in November 2020—are equally uncertain. Like anyone else, Mr Trump deserves the presumption of innocence. And his opponents should be wary of repeating old mistakes: at each turn they have hoped that something, anything (the Mueller investigation, the first impeachment trial, the second impeachment trial) would take him out of the picture. And yet here he is.

其他三项调查，即特朗普是否在纳税申报单上撒谎，他是否在1月6日违反了法律，以及他是否参与了推翻2020年11月佐治亚州富尔顿县选举的犯罪阴谋，同样不确定。和其他人一样，特朗普理应得到无罪推定。他的对手应该警惕重蹈覆辙：他们每一次都希望有什么事情、任何事情(通俄门调查、第一次弹劾审判、第二次弹劾审判)会把他排除在外。但他还是来了。

In fact, these legal troubles increase the incentive for Mr Trump to run. Out of politics, he is just a private citizen facing some prosecutions. For as long as he is a potential president, he is the head of a movement that won 74m votes last time round. At that point Mr Garland and others running the investigations would face an unenviable choice: either put a presidential candidate on trial or choose not to uphold the rule of law. Being on trial and even being convicted could fuel Mr Trump’s return. A revenge tour, in which he campaigned on retribution for his persecution by the legal system, would play to Mr Trump’s worst instincts and further exhaust America’s institutions.

事实上，这些法律纠纷增加了特朗普竞选的动机。在政治之外，他只是一个面临一些指控的普通公民。只要他还是一个潜在的总统，他就是上一轮赢得7400万选票的竞选活动的领袖。到那时，加兰德和其他负责调查的人将面临一个艰难的选择：要么审判一位总统候选人，要么选择不维护法治。接受审判甚至被定罪都可能推动特朗普回归。特朗普的复仇之旅将激发特朗普最坏的本能，并进一步耗尽美国的制度。他在竞选中主张对自己受到法律体系迫害进行报复。

In another era, the influence of corporate America might have helped sideline Mr Trump. Yet the political clout of big companies is waning, as the Republican Party becomes a movement of working-class whites and an increasing number of conservative Hispanics. That movement protests against not just foreign entanglements, illegal immigration and cuts to Medicare and Social Security, but also trade and left-wing identity politics advanced by the global, managerial elite. Many Republicans think the party has for too long put the interests of the s&p 500 ahead of American workers. Little wonder that big companies now regard the prospect of a Republican triumph in November with trepidation. What remains of the Republican establishment acts like a government in exile, muttering about Mr Trump’s takeover, but lacking the means to reverse it.

【1】trepidation 惊悸；不安

在另一个时代，美国企业的影响力可能有助于把特朗普边缘化。然而，大公司的政治影响力正在减弱，因为共和党变成了一个由白人工人阶级和越来越多的拉美裔保守派组成的运动。这场运动不仅抗议与外国的纠纷、非法移民、削减老年医保制度以及社会保障，还抗议由全球管理精英推动的贸易和左翼身份政治。许多共和党人认为，共和党把标普500指数的利益置于美国工人的利益之上的时间太长了。难怪大公司现在对共和党在11月的胜利前景感到不安。剩下的共和党建制派就像一个流亡政府，咕哝着特朗普的接管，但缺乏扭转局面的手段。

More crosses than ticksIf neither his party nor the law will stop Mr Trump, what can? Poetic justice recommends a do-or-die run for the Oval Office by Ms Cheney, in a bid to siphon off Republican voters who cannot bear to put a cross next to the name of a Democrat. If enough of them switched in red states in a close race, it could deny Mr Trump victory in the electoral college.

【1】 siphon off 抽走

如果他的政党和法律都不能阻止特朗普，还有什么能阻挡他呢？报应建议切尼女士参加一场生死攸关的竞选，以吸引那些无法忍受在民主党人的名字旁边划十字的共和党选民。如果他们中有足够多的人在势均力敌的竞选中转而支持红色州，这可能会让特朗普在选举人团选举中无法获胜。

Better would be to depend on the good sense of the American people. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections. In the four years of his presidency he lost his party both houses of Congress as well as the White House. Many voters understand that he is dangerous and undemocratic and most do not want him back in office. The reason Mr Trump campaigns so hard against the trustworthiness of the ballot box is that he knows the ballot box can defeat him.

【1】trustworthiness 值得信任；可靠

更好的办法是依靠美国人民的良好判断力。人们很容易忘记特朗普输掉了选举。在他四年的总统任期中，他失去了他的政党，国会两院和白宫。许多选民明白，他是危险的、不民主的，大多数人不希望他再次上台。特朗普之所以极力反对投票箱的可信度，是因为他知道投票箱可以击败他。