Scorched earth

焦土策略

No one is likely to win the oil-price war

没有人可能赢得这场油价战争

Saudi Arabia, Russia and America will all suffer

沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和美国都将遭殃

Mar 14th 2020 |

SAUDI ARABIA and Russia are used to fighting their enemies via proxies. But the oil-price war that has broken out between them is head-on and has swiftly escalated. It started when Russia refused to slash production during a meeting with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna on March 6th. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, hit back with discounts to buyers and a promise to pump more crude. Shortly thereafter it said it would provide customers with 12.3m barrels a day (b/d) in April, about 25% more than it supplied last month—and a level it has never before attained. Russia said it could raise output, too, adding up to 500,000 b/d to its 11.2m b/d. The price of Brent crude plunged by 24%, to $34 a barrel, on March 9th—its steepest one-day drop in nearly 30 years.

沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯习惯于通过第三方与敌人作战。但他们之间爆发的油价战争正迎头而上，并迅速升级。3月6日，在维也纳举行的石油输出国组织会议上，俄罗斯拒绝减产。欧佩克事实上的领导者沙特阿拉伯以对买家的折扣和增加原油产量的承诺予以回击。此后不久，该公司表示，将在4月份每日向客户提供1230万桶原油，比上月增加约25%——这是该公司从未达到过的水平。俄罗斯表示，他也可能提高日产量，在目前每日1120万桶的基础上再增加50万桶。3月9日，布伦特原油价格暴跌24%，至每桶34美元，这是近30年来最大的单日跌幅。

词汇

Proxy/代理；代理人

Escalate/逐步增强；逐步升高

OPEC/石油输出国组织，简称“欧佩克”。

de facto/（法）事实上的

Amid turmoil in global markets unleashed by the plummeting oil price, and panic about its impact on the global economy, Saudi Arabia upped the ante again on March 11th, ordering Saudi Aramco, its state-owned oil giant, to raise national production capacity by a further 1m b/d. Is the kingdom merely strengthening its bargaining position to force Russia back to the table? Or is it waging a fierce price war to crowd out rivals that will instead ensure what analysts at Bernstein, an investment firm, call “mutually assured destruction”? The answer may determine how long the disruption will last.

在油价暴跌引发的全球市场动荡和对其对全球经济影响的恐慌中，沙特阿拉伯于3月11日再次加大赌注，命令其国有石油巨头“沙特阿美石油公司”将其国家生产能力再提高100万桶/天。难道沙特只是在加强自己的谈判地位，迫使俄罗斯回到谈判桌前吗?还是说，他正在发动一场激烈的价格战，以排挤那些将确保被伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)投资公司的分析师们称为“相互确保毁灭”的竞争对手?答案可能决定这次扰乱将持续多久。

词汇

Amid/在其中

Turmoil/混乱，骚动

Ante/赌注

The fallout caps a seismic decade for oilmen. Power has shifted between Saudi Arabia, Russia and America (see chart). In 2014 Saudi Arabia sought to check America’s ascendant shale industry by flooding the market with oil. The result was cataclysmic for all producers. Two years later OPEC restored its grip on output by forging an alliance with Russia and others.

对石油商来说，这场地震似的余波为他们十年的辉煌划上了句号。权力已经在沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和美国之间转移(见图表)。2014年，沙特阿拉伯试图通过向市场大量供应石油，来遏制美国日益崛起的页岩油行业。结果对所有生产者来说都是灾难性的。两年后，欧佩克通过与俄罗斯和其他国家结盟，恢复了对产量的控制。

词汇

Seismic/地震的；因地震而引起的

Oilmen/石油商；石油工人

Cataclysmic/灾难性的；极不成功的；大变动的

In recent years, though, Russia has flouted the terms of its deals with OPEC. Its oil companies, led by Rosneft, have chafed at market share lost to American frackers. As troubling for Russia, America has become less shy about leaning on foreigners. In December it announced sanctions to delay Nord Stream 2, a Russian gas pipeline to Europe. In February America imposed sanctions to punish Rosneft for its dealings with Venezuela.

但近年来，俄罗斯一直无视与欧佩克的协议条款。以俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)为首的俄罗斯石油公司对市场份额输给美国水力压裂公司感到不满。作为俄罗斯的麻烦，美国已经不再那么羞于依赖外国人了。去年12月，他宣布对俄罗斯实施制裁，以推迟俄罗斯通往欧洲的天然气管道北溪二号(Nord Stream 2)的建设。2月，美国对俄罗斯石油公司实施制裁，以惩罚其与委内瑞拉的交易。

词汇

Russia’s partnership with OPEC has won it new influence in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia has borne most of the burden of production cuts. The Saudis are getting tired of the role of swing producer. That position has become all the more invidious since January, when the outbreak of covid-19 in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, put downward pressure on prices.

俄罗斯与欧佩克的合作为其在中东赢得了新的影响力，而沙特阿拉伯承担了减产的大部分负担。沙特人已经厌倦了摇摆不定的生产者角色。自今年1月以来，这种立场变得更加令人反感。当时，全球最大的石油进口国中国爆发了covid-19，给油价带来了下行压力。

The Saudi decision to open the spigots is nevertheless extremely rash. With the coronavirus raging, global appetite for oil may decline in 2020 for only the third time in more than 30 years. Increasing supply at a time of falling demand may send the price of Brent crude below $30 in the second quarter, estimates Citi, a bank.

尽管如此，沙特开放石油供应的决定还是极其草率。随着冠状病毒的肆虐，全球对石油的需求可能在2020年出现30多年来的第三次下降。花旗银行估计，在需求下降的时候增加供应可能会使布伦特原油（一种原油）价格在第二季度跌破30美元。

词汇

Spigot/龙头；栓

The pain may be most acute for smaller, unstable countries dependent on oil revenue, such as Nigeria. Iraq’s government is already teetering—a collapsing oil price may topple it. The movement of forward contracts on Gulf currencies pegged to the dollar, such as Oman’s rial, suggest incipient concerns about the ability to sustain the pegs if dollar revenues from oil remain depressed for a long time.

对于依赖石油收入的不稳定小国来说，这种痛苦可能最为严重，比如尼日利亚。伊拉克政府已经摇摇欲坠——油价暴跌可能会使其垮台。与美元挂钩的海湾国家货币(如阿曼的里亚尔)远期合约的变动表明，如果来自石油的美元收入长期处于低迷状态，人们对维持这种挂钩的能力产生了初步的担忧。

词汇

Topple/推翻；颠覆

Incipient/初期的；初始的

America, too, will be hit hard. Cheap oil used to be a boon to America’s economy. That is no longer the case. In a viral outbreak, savings on petrol are unlikely to translate into more spending on other things, especially ones that involve crowds. Even if it did, any boost to the economy from consumers would be outweighed by damage to shale states such as Texas and North Dakota. Breakeven prices—those oil producers need to turn a profit—in America’s shale basins range from $23 to $75 a barrel, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve. Production cuts and lay-offs are likely.

美国也将受到沉重打击。廉价的石油曾经是美国经济的福音。现在情况已经不同了。在病毒爆发的情况下，节省汽油不太可能转化为在其他方面的更多支出，尤其是涉及人群的方面。即便如此，消费者对经济的任何提振，都将被德克萨斯州和北达科他州等页岩州受到的损害所抵消。盈亏平衡价格——根据达拉斯联邦储备银行的数据，这些石油生产商需要将美国页岩盆地的利润从每桶23美元提高到75美元。这有可能带来减产和裁员。

词汇

Making matters worse, shale firms were suffering even before the latest sell-off, as investors questioned their capacity for sustained profits. Capital markets have all but closed to the industry. It will not collapse; many shale firms are hedged against falling prices this year. Those on their knees may well be taken over by bigger competitors. Analysts say larger rivals such as ExxonMobil have the balance-sheets to cope with cheap oil.

更糟糕的是，由于投资者质疑页岩气公司持续盈利的能力，页岩气公司甚至在最近的抛售之前就已经遭受了损失。资本市场几乎已对该行业关闭。它不会倒塌;许多页岩油公司都在为今年油价下跌做对冲。那些资质一般的公司很可能被规模更大的竞争对手收购。分析师表示，埃克森美孚等规模较大的竞争对手的资产负债表足以应对油价下跌。

词汇

shale industry/页岩（气）

Russia may fail in its attempt to kill off America’s shale industry. Moreover, weak oil prices will hurt its economy. But unlike Saudi Arabia, whose currency is pegged to the dollar, the rouble floats. When oil prices fall, the currency does, too, lowering production costs. On March 10th Russia’s finance ministry said that the country had enough foreign-currency reserves to withstand a decade of prices hovering between $25 and $30. It seems in no hurry to go back to negotiations with OPEC.

俄罗斯扼杀美国页岩气产业的努力可能会失败。此外，疲软的石油价格将损害其经济。但与沙特不同的是，该国的货币与美元挂钩，而卢布是浮动的。当油价下跌时，货币也会降低生产成本。3月10日，俄罗斯财政部表示，该国有足够的外汇储备来承受油价在25到30美元之间徘徊的十年。他似乎并不急于回到与欧佩克的谈判。

With some of the world’s cheapest oil, Saudi Arabia may be able to pile more pressure on the Russians. Aramco has more than 50 years of reserves, and costs per barrel of less than $9, according to Rystad Energy, a data firm, compared with $15 for Russia. Still, Saudi Arabia may struggle to maintain production—even 12.3m b/d will require tapping its vast inventories.

Moreover, the kingdom’s budget requires an oil price of more than $80, estimates the IMF. Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckons that if it increases output and oil prices recover, its finances will weather temporary pain. But if the virus persists and demand keeps plunging, the damage may be more lasting. It is a price war that no one looks likely to win. 

此外，据国际货币基金组织估计，沙特的预算需要油价超过80美元。高盛银行认为，如果他增加产量，油价回升，他的财政状况将经受暂时的痛苦。但是，如果疫情持续下去，需求持续下降，损害可能会更持久。这是一场似乎没有人会赢的价格战。