TED 演讲 | 一条活鲸鱼值多少钱？为什么经济体系该保护大自然？
I'm a financial economist.
我是一名金融经济学家。
And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.
我听到科学家们为鲸鱼的遭遇叹息。
And I wanted to help.
我想帮忙。
I didn't know how to help.
但我不知道该怎么帮忙。
And I thought, wait a minute.
然后我想，等一下。
Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.
也许我可以把你们的信息传达给世界。
Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us in a language that we can all understand.
也许我可以把这些工作的价值和鲸鱼的贡献翻译成我们都能理解的语言。
Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.
不幸的是，这是金钱的语言。
So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.
所以我带领着团队打算评估鲸鱼行为的价值，但是只评估那么一方面，因为鲸鱼会做很多很多事。
But I just wanted to value one thing, which is what is the value of their carbon sequestration service to us?
但是我只想评估一件事，即鲸鱼的固碳行为对我们来说值多少钱？
Now how would you do something like that?
怎么评估呢？
After all, the whale is a living system.
鲸鱼毕竟是一个活物。
The whale captures carbon on her body, and she gives birth to baby whales who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.
鲸鱼把碳存在她的身体里，然后生了小鲸鱼，小鲸鱼长大了也会用身体捕获碳。
And they give birth to whales and so forth, and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.
然后不断繁衍生息，还会间接地通过滋养浮游生物的这一过程固碳。
So how would you do something like this?
那么怎么估值呢？
Well, to do that, I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.
要估值的话，我得发挥我的长项，也就是估价。
I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.
我看了看说，等一下。
This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.
它们就像是会分红的股票。
Except those dividends are live dividends.
但是分红是动态的。
They give birth to more dividends.
它们还会越滚越多。
So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime and keep track of all these dividends into the future,
如果我追踪一条鲸鱼的一生，记录下所有分红，直至终点，
and then multiply that by the price of carbon, and discount that all the way to the present, I can figure out what is the present value,
再乘以碳的价格，再将所有未来的分红折现至当下，就可以得出目前的价值，
discounted present value, of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.
一条鲸鱼一生创造的价值折现到现在的价值。
Would you like to know how much?
你们想知道是多少吗？
Would you like to know how much?
你想知道是多少吗？
Audience: Yes!
观众：想！
RC: At least three million dollars.
拉尔夫·沙米：至少三百万美元。
At least.
还只是“至少”。
Because I'm leaving so much out of this.
因为我舍去了很多。
But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.
但是我只是想分享我在那艘船上听到的好消息。
I didn't know what to do.
我不知道该做些什么。
I was trying to help them out.
我只是想帮帮它们。
But there's more good news.
但还有更多的好消息。
Would you like to hear it?
你想听听吗？
Audience: Yes!
观众：想！
RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa, in the Congo Basin, they do the same thing.
沙米：它们在陆地上的远亲，非洲刚果盆地森林里的大象，也在做同样的事。
Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop, they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests between seven and 14 percent.
事实证明，它们通过走路、进食、排泄的方式，使树木中、森林里的碳捕获量增加了7%至14%。
Just imagine, just by frolicking around, they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.
想象一下，它们只是在四处玩耍，就能帮我们从大气中捕获二氧化碳，解决这个问题。
So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.
所以我在想，也许我们也能为它们的行为估个价。
Right? Same thing.
对吧？一个道理。
But again, use the same model of valuation.
我们再次使用同样的估值模型。
You follow the same methodology, and you discount all of that to the present.
使用同样的方法，折现得出此时此刻的价值。
And you ask yourself, what is the value of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?
问问自己，一头大象的固碳行为值多少钱？
Would you like to know how much?
你们想知道值多少吗？
Audience: Yes!
观众：想！
RC: Here we go.
沙米：那我就告诉你们。
2.6 million dollars.
260万美元。
Would you like to hear some more good news?
还想听点别的好消息吗？
Audience: Yes!
观众：想！
RC: Aside from forests -- because we are land people, we just think of forests -- go a little bit into the water.
沙米：除了森林——由于我们生活在陆地上，我们只会想到森林——我们再拓展一下，到水里去。
Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands,
海草、盐沼红树林、海藻森林、泥炭地、
wetlands -- these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide beyond your imagination,
湿地——它们都是以超出想象的水平吸收二氧化碳的生物系统，
and they keep it forever in their roots as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.
它们把碳永久地封存在根系中，只要你去关爱它们，不去干涉它们。
So ... If you think these numbers are big,
所以……如果你觉得数额不菲，
wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.
那你得听听我接下来要说的话。
In seagrass alone, seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.
单看海草，仅仅是海草的固碳效果。
How much do you think is the value of the global -- If you look at globally the seagrass and you value their carbon sequestration service,
你觉得全球的——放眼全球的海草，评估一下它们固碳的价值，
how much you think it's worth?
你觉得它们的贡献值多少钱？
You ready?
准备好了吗？
2.3 trillion dollars.
2.3万亿美元。
That's the size of the German stock market.
相当于德国股市的规模。
Now. What does this tell us?
那么，这意味着什么呢？
This tells us that a living and thriving nature is not only valuable intrinsically, it's also financially valuable to us.
这意味着生机勃勃的大自然不仅对它自身价值连城，对我们来说也价值连城。
Question is, what do you do with this?
问题是，你该做些什么呢？
So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.
科学为我们展现了地球之美。
We can value it in dollars and cents.
我们可以用金钱来衡量。
Question is, what are you going to do with it?
问题是，然后你该干什么呢？
Well, guess what?
你猜怎么着？
We can build a whole economy around a living and thriving nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.
我们可以围绕这生机勃勃的大自然建立一个完整的经济体系，不是向自然索取，而是帮助自然焕发生机。
And that economy --
而这种经济——
Thank you.
谢谢。
That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.
这个经济体系将为我们，为地球万物，无论大小，带来可持续的共同繁荣。
It does not have to be I win, you lose.
这不必是一场零和博弈。
It is a win-win.
这是一个双赢的局面。
I'm going to show you how.
我来告诉你们怎么做。
From there we can build -- In order to build that economy, we need three things.
我们可以建设一个……要建立这个经济体系，需要三样东西。
We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.
我们需要科学，也就是计算，严谨的计算工作。
What is it that you have?
你有什么？
How much of it do you have?
你有多少？
Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say, "What is the value of what you have?"
然后第二步就是像我这样的金融经济学家过来说道：“你持有的东西值多少钱？”
The reason we value it is just to basically translate it into the language that policymakers can understand so they can make decisions.
我们之所以要估价，只是为了把它翻译成政策制定者可以理解的语言，然后他们才能做出决定。
That's all.
就这样。
It's a translation.
只是“翻译”而已。
But then the third pillar is very important, which is the legal framing.
第三个关键部分也非常重要，即法律体系。
The legal framing is very important because we need to protect the rights of nature, a living and thriving nature.
法律体系非常重要，因为我们需要保护大自然的权利，我们生机勃勃的大自然。
Three things.
三件事。
Once you do these three things, you can create markets around nature.
一旦你做到了这三件事，你就可以创造许多围绕大自然的市场。
When I say markets around nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.
我指的“围绕大自然的市场”，不是向自然界索取，而是帮助大自然焕发新生。
And I'm going to show you how.
我要告诉你如何做到这点。
I'm going to show you how.
我要告诉你怎么做到这点。
Gabon has 57,000 elephants.
加蓬有57000头大象。
If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.
如果不加以干涉，可以繁衍至195000头大象。
Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.
加蓬可以出售大象的碳补偿价值。
Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees -- they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.
想象一下，这些大象会从树中吸收碳，加蓬就可以出售这个过程的价值。
To whom?
卖给谁呢？
To us because we're all enamored with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
卖给我们，因为我们都执着于达成零碳、负碳排放、碳中和。
And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.
我们的钱能让大象得以世世代代繁衍生息。
OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?
怎么样？那加蓬能赚多少钱呢？
One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely, not be tied to anything, just by leaving them alone.
加蓬每年能赚到10亿美元，需要做的只是让大象自由活动，不对大象加以任何限制，不作任何干涉。
Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop, just being, having babies, doing whatever they do, they help carbon sequestration in the forests.
而这些大象只要进食、排泄、生活、繁殖、为所欲为，就能完成森林里的固碳过程。
A forest without animals is dead.
没有动物的森林是死气沉沉的。
It's not about flora.
森林不只是植物。
It's about flora and fauna.
森林是植物与动物。
It's about nature itself.
它是大自然自身。
That's what the message is.
这就是我要传达的信息。
Who would buy these carbon offsets?
谁会购买这些碳补偿价值呢？
All these companies and countries that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
所有承诺达成零碳、负碳排放、碳中和的公司、国家都会购买。
They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.
它们会购买这些碳补偿价值，或者说碳信用。
The money would flow in from these ecosystem services -- be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh --
资金会流入这些生态系统运作的过程，给予鲸鱼、大象、红树林、海草、盐沼——
and the money goes in by contract,
由合同规范资金的流入，
using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity -- very important -- and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.
利用区块链技术永久地照顾大自然，这点非常重要，也能永久地照顾大自然的“管理员”。
And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.
大自然的管理员是当地的土著人。
They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.
他们才是真正进行保护工作的人，不是你，也不是我。
Once we do that -- Notice what it is.
我们一旦这么做了——看看效果吧。
It's a win for nature.
这是大自然的胜利。
It's a win for the economy.
这对经济来说是一场胜利。
The government will make money because the government is going to get all that revenue.
政府能赚到钱，因为这些收入都归了政府。
It will change its fiscal stance.
这会改变财政态势。
It will diversify its economy.
它将让经济更加多元。
It will grow in a sustainable way.
它将更可持续地增长。
It's a win for the environment.
这对环境来说是一场胜利。
It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.
这对所有饱受我们折磨的生物有利。
It's a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.
对于我们这个美丽的地球来说，这是一场胜利。
As Carl Sagan once said, "The only Earth we'll ever know.
正如卡尔·萨根曾经说过的：“我们唯一的地球，
The only home we'll ever know."
也是我们唯一的家园。”
It's a win for us.
这对我们来说是一场胜利。
We are taking this work in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.
我们把这项在非洲进行的工作带去了利比里亚、喀麦隆、肯尼亚、南非。
We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.
我们把这项工作带去了美洲、智利、阿根廷。
We're doing it in the US and in the UK.
我们也在美国、英国进行这项工作。
Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.
想象一下，一切始于我想看到蓝鲸的那个愿望。
Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision of how we ought to live for tomorrow.
我未曾想到这会孕育出对未来生存方式的畅想。
