A social turn--Hard work and black swans

To explain wealth and poverty, the ideas of the earliest economists are being revisited and improved

THE EMERGENCE of the discipline of economics in the 18th century was the result of people trying to explain something that had never happened before. At the time a handful of countries were becoming fabulously rich, while others remained dirt-poor. In 1500 the world’s richest country was twice as well-off as the poorest one; by 1750 the ratio was five to one. It is no coincidence that the most famous book in economics, published in 1776, inquired into “the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”.

black swan：黑天鹅事件，非常难以预测，且不寻常的事件，通常会引起市场连锁负面反应甚至颠覆。比如去年至今的新冠肺炎大流行

Fabulously  adv. /ˈfæbjələsli/ 极其；非常• fabulously wealthy/rich 极为富有

dirt-poor：adj. 非常穷困的；极贫困的

In order to explain such a divergence between rich and poor countries, the early economists were obsessed with culture, a catch-all term encompassing a society’s beliefs, preferences and values. Adam smith, the author of “The Wealth of Nations”, explored the ways in which culture helped or hindered capitalism. He argued that certain norms were required in order for market economies to thrive—most importantly, that people would be self-interested, but that they would satisfy their self-interest by adapting to the needs of others. Karl Marx, a few decades later, worried that a culture of “oriental despotism” prevented the emergence of capitalism in Asia.

divergence  /daɪˈvɜːdʒəns/  分歧; 差异 • There's a substantial divergence of opinion within the party. 党内意见严重分歧。

be obsessed with 对···着迷

catch-all 全方位的，无所不包的，catch-all term 在这里指经济学家用文化解释差异的原因，是个意义宽泛的术语。

encompass  v. /ɪnˈkʌmpəs/  1.包含，包括，涉及（大量事物）•The job encompasses a wide range of responsibilities. 这项工作涉及的职责范围很广。2.包围；围绕；围住 •The fog soon encompassed the whole valley. 大雾很快笼罩了整个山谷。

hinder  v. /ˈhɪndə(r)/  ~ sb/sth (from sth/from doing sth) 阻碍；妨碍；阻挡 • a political situation that hinders economic growth 妨碍经济发展的政治局面

norm  n. /nɔːm/  

1. 常态；正常行为•a departure from the norm 一反常态

2. norms [ pl. ] 规范；行为标准 •social/cultural norms 社会╱文化规范

3. 标准；定额；定量 •detailed education norms for children of particular ages 针对具体年龄儿童的详细教育标准

Despotism  n. /ˈdespətɪzəm/  专制统治；独裁制；暴政

The speculations of smith, Marx and others were often vague. Max Weber’s “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of capitalism”, published in 1905, made them concrete. Weber argued that Protestants, in particular Calvinists, drove the emergence of capitalism due to a strong work ethic.

Protestant  n. /ˈprɒtɪstənt/   新教教徒（16世纪脱离罗马天主教）Protestant Ethic：新教伦理，强调勤奋工作，崇尚节俭与时间

Calvinist /ˈkælvɪnɪst/  加尔文派

In the middle of the 20th century such cultural explanations began to fall out of favour. The rapid rise of Japan’s economy in the 1950S, and later of the Asian “tigers”, quashed the Marxist-Weberian notion that Western culture alone was conducive to industrialisation. At the same time the increasing availability of data with which to do statistical analysis meant that economists’ attention went elsewhere. Why bother with hard-to-measure matters such as morals, when it is possible to plug hard data such as capital accumulation, wages or employment into a regression model? In 1970 Robert Solow, a Nobel prize-winner, quipped that attempts to explain economic growth with reference to culture ended up “in a blaze of amateur sociology”.

fall out of：放弃，抛弃，从··掉下来

quash  v. /kwɒʃ/  1. 宣布（法庭的裁决）无效；撤销（判决） •His conviction was later quashed by the Court of Appeal. 后来，上诉法院撤销了对他的有罪判决。 2.制止；阻止；平息•The rumours were quickly quashed. 流言很快被制止了。

Marxist-Weberian：韦伯式的（社会经济学理论）

Notion  n. /ˈnəʊʃn/  ~ (that...)~ (of sth) 观念；信念；理解 • a political system based on the notions of equality and liberty 建立在自由平等观念基础上的政治体系

conducive  adj. /kənˈdjuːsɪv/  ~ to sth  使容易（或有可能）发生的• Chairs in rows are not as conducive to discussion as chairs arranged in a circle. 椅子成排摆放不如成圈摆放便于讨论。

hard data：硬数据，相对于软数据而言，是可以衡量的资料，如高度等

Quip /kwɪp/  n 俏皮话；妙语；v讲俏皮话；讥讽；嘲弄；打趣

capital accumulation：资本积累 regression model：回归模型

 Amateur n  /ˈæmətə(r); ˈæmətʃə(r)/ n. 业余爱好者；生手，外行；adj. 业余爱好的；业余的；外行的；不熟练的

译文

To explain wealth and poverty, the ideas of the earliest economists are being revisited and improved

为解释富有与贫穷，早期经济学家的观点被重新吸收并发展

THE EMERGENCE of the discipline of economics in the 18th century was the result of people trying to explain something that had never happened before. At the time a handful of countries were becoming fabulously rich, while others remained dirt-poor. In 1500 the world’s richest country was twice as well-off as the poorest one; by 1750 the ratio was five to one. It is no coincidence that the most famous book in economics, published in 1776, inquired into “the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”.

经济学诞生于18世纪人们为解释生活中从未出现的情况。在当时，少数国家变得极其富有，而其他则是穷穿地心。在1500年，最富有的国家财富是最穷的两倍；到1750年，是五倍。1776年，经济学最负盛名的书籍出版并不是巧合，它的研究领域是“国家财富的本质与成因”

In order to explain such a divergence between rich and poor countries, the early economists were obsessed with culture, a catch-all term encompassing a society’s beliefs, preferences and values. Adam smith, the author of “The Wealth of Nations”, explored the ways in which culture helped or hindered capitalism. He argued that certain norms were required in order for market economies to thrive—most importantly, that people would be self-interested, but that they would satisfy their self-interest by adapting to the needs of others. Karl Marx, a few decades later, worried that a culture of “oriental despotism” prevented the emergence of capitalism in Asia.

为解释国与国之间的贫富差异，早期经济学家痴迷于文化，一个包罗万象式的术语，常常包含着社会信仰、偏好及价值。亚当·斯密，《财富论》作者，说明怎样的文化可以帮助或是阻碍资本主义发展。他认为特定的规范需要制定出来用于市场经济的兴盛--最重要的是，人类利己，但是人们会通过利他来实现利己。几十年之后的卡尔·马克思担心亚洲的独裁统治阻碍了资本主义的出现。

The speculations of smith, Marx and others were often vague. Max Weber’s “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of capitalism”, published in 1905, made them concrete. Weber argued that Protestants, in particular Calvinists, drove the emergence of capitalism due to a strong work ethic.

亚当·斯密、马克思以及其他经济学家的推测还是比较模糊。马克思·韦伯1905年出版的“新教伦理与资本主义精神”变得更加具体。韦伯认为新教徒，尤其是加尔文派驱动资本主义的出现，因为他们具有强烈的职业道德。

In the middle of the 20th century such cultural explanations began to fall out of favour. The rapid rise of Japan’s economy in the 1950S, and later of the Asian “tigers”, quashed the Marxist-Weberian notion that Western culture alone was conducive to industrialisation. At the same time the increasing availability of data with which to do statistical analysis meant that economists’ attention went elsewhere. Why bother with hard-to-measure matters such as morals, when it is possible to plug hard data such as capital accumulation, wages or employment into a regression model? In 1970 Robert Solow, a Nobel prize-winner, quipped that attempts to explain economic growth with reference to culture ended up “in a blaze of amateur sociology”.

20世纪中期这种文化解释逐渐被抛弃。50年代日本经济的快速崛起，之后亚洲四小龙，粉碎了马克思韦伯的概念--只有西方文化有益于工业化。与此同时，可供统计分析的数据增加表明经济学家的关注焦点转移了方向。为什么困扰于难以量化研究的例如道德这样的变量，难道将诸如资本积累、工资及雇工之类的硬数据放入回归模型不香吗？1970年，罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow），一位诺贝尔奖获得者，调侃道试图用文化解释经济增长结束在民科社会学的兴盛中。