每天一篇经济学人 | House-price horror show 房价...
Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.
在过去的十年里，拥有一栋房子意味着容易赚钱。价格稳定地上涨了多年，然后在大流行期间奇怪地飙升。然而今天，如果你的财富被套牢在房屋上，那你就该感到紧张了。九个发达经济体的房价正在下跌。到目前为止，美国的下跌幅度还很小，但在最疯狂的市场，房价下跌幅度已经非常大了。在热衷于公寓的加拿大，房价比2月份下降了9%。随着通货膨胀和经济衰退在世界范围内蔓延，调整很可能进一步加剧，甚至房地产经纪人也对此感到悲观。尽管这不会像2007-2009年那样引爆全球银行，但它会加剧衰退，让一群人的财务陷入困境，并引发一场政治风暴。
The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit 6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002. The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a 30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.
紧缩的原因是利率飙升: 在美国，30年期抵押贷款利率已经达到6.92%，是一年前水平的两倍多，是2002年4月以来的最高水平，潜在的买家一直在观望，惊恐万分。降息、刺激资金和对更多郊区空间的追逐，助长了这场疫情带来的迷你泡沫。现在，这一趋势正在逆转。举个例子，一年前一个人每月可以支付1800美元的30年期抵押贷款。那时他们可以借42万美元。如今，这笔款项仅够偿还28万美元的贷款: 减少了33%。从斯德哥尔摩到悉尼，借款人的购买力正在崩溃。这使得新买家更难买得起房子，从而抑制了需求，并可能减少现有房主的财务，如果他们不走运，可能会被迫出售。
The good news is that falling house prices will not cause an epic financial bust in America as they did 15 years ago. The country has fewer risky loans and better-capitalised banks which have not binged on dodgy subprime securities. Uncle Sam now underwrites or securitises two-thirds of new mortgages. The big losers will be taxpayers. Through state insurance schemes they bear the risk of defaults. As rates rise they are exposed to losses via the Federal Reserve, which owns one-quarter of mortgage-backed securities.
好消息是，下跌的房价不会像15年前那样在美国造成一场史诗般的金融崩溃。这个国家的风险贷款较少，资本状况较好的银行没有大量购买不良次级抵押贷款证券。山姆大叔现在承保或证券化了三分之二的新抵押贷款。最大的输家将是纳税人。通过国家保险计划，他们承担了违约的风险。随着利率的上升，他们将通过美联储遭受损失，美联储拥有四分之一的抵押贷款支持证券。
Some other places, such as South Korea and the Nordic countries, have seen scarier accelerations in borrowing, with household debt of around 100% of gdp. They could face destabilising losses at their banks or shadow financial firms: Sweden’s central-bank boss has likened this to “sitting on top of a volcano”. But the world’s worst housing-related financial crisis will still be confined to X, whose problems—vast speculative excess, mortgage strikes, people who have pre-paid for flats which have not been built—are, mercifully, contained within its borders.
其他一些地方，如韩国和北欧国家，则出现了更可怕的借贷加速，家庭债务已达到GDP的100%左右。他们可能面临银行或影子金融公司的不稳定损失: 瑞典央行行长将这比作“坐在火山口上”。但是，世界上最严重的与房地产相关的金融危机仍然局限在X，其问题在于大量的投机过度，抵押贷款罢工，购房者预付了尚未建成的公寓，不过这些问题被控制在其境内。
Even without a synchronised global banking crash, though, the housing downturn will be grim. First, because gummed-up property markets are a drag on the jobs market. As rates rise and prices gradually adjust, the uncertainty makes people hesitant about moving. Sales of existing homes in America dropped by 20% in August year on year, and Zillow, a housing firm, reports 13% fewer new listings than the seasonal norm. In Canada sales volumes could drop by 40% this year. When people cannot move, it saps labour markets of dynamism, a big worry when companies are trying to adapt to worker shortages and the energy crisis. And when prices do plunge, homeowners can find their homes are worth less than their mortgages, making it even harder to up sticks—a problem that afflicted many economies after the global financial crisis.
然而，即使没有全球银行业同步崩溃，住房市场的低迷也将是严峻的。首先，糟糕的房地产市场拖累了就业市场。随着利率上升和价格逐步调整，这种不确定性让人们对搬家犹豫不决。8月份美国成屋销量同比下降了20%，房地产公司Zillow的报告显示，新挂牌的房屋数量比季节性常态减少了13%。在加拿大，今年的销售量可能会下降40%。当人们无法移动时，劳动力市场的活力就会被削弱，当企业试图适应工人短缺和能源危机时，这是一个很大的担忧。当房价真的暴跌时，房主会发现他们的房子的价值低于他们的抵押贷款，这使得他们更难迁居别处，这是一个在全球金融危机后困扰许多经济体的问题。
Lower house prices also hurt growth in a second way: they make already-gloomy consumers even more miserable. Worldwide, homes are worth about $250trn (for comparison, stockmarkets are worth only $90trn), and account for half of all wealth. As that edifice of capital crumbles, consumers are likely to cut back on spending. Though a cooler economy is what central banks intend to bring about by raising interest rates, collapsing confidence can take on a momentum of its own.
较低的房价还会以第二种方式损害经济增长:使本已沮丧的消费者更加痛苦。在全球范围内，房屋价值约为250万亿美元(相比之下，股票市场价值仅为90万亿美元)，占所有财富的一半。随着资本大厦的倒塌，消费者很可能会削减支出。尽管央行希望通过提高利率来实现经济降温，但信心崩溃本身也可能带来动力。
A further problem is concentrated pain borne by a minority of homeowners. By far the most exposed are those who have not locked in interest rates and face soaring mortgage bills. Relatively few are in America, where subsidised 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are the norm. But four in five Swedish loans have a fixed period of two years or less, and half of all New Zealand’s fixed-rate mortgages have been or are due for refinancing this year.
另一个问题是，少数房主承受了集中的痛苦。到目前为止，受影响最大的是那些没有锁定利率、面临飙升抵押贷款账单的人。在美国，这种情况相对较少，因为在美国，有补贴的30年期固定利率抵押贷款是一种常态。但五分之四的瑞典贷款的固定期限是两年或更短，而新西兰的固定利率抵押贷款中有一半已经或即将在今年进行再融资。
When combined with a cost-of-living squeeze, that points to a growing number of households in financial distress. In Australia perhaps a fifth of all mortgage debt is owed by households who will see their spare cashflow fall by 20% or more if interest rates rise as expected. In Britain 2m households could see their mortgage absorb another 10% of their income, according to one estimate. Those who cannot afford the payments may have to dump their houses on the market instead.
再加上生活成本的紧缩，这意味着越来越多的家庭陷入财务困境。在澳大利亚，可能有五分之一的抵押贷款是由家庭所欠，如果利率如预期上升，他们的闲置现金流将减少20%甚至更多。根据一项估计，在英国，200万家庭可能会看到他们的抵押贷款再吸收其10%的收入。那些无力偿还贷款的人可能不得不将自己的房子抛售到市场上。
That is where the political dimension comes in. Housing markets are already a battleground. Thickets of red tape make it too hard to build new homes in big cities, leading to shortages. A generation of young people in the rich world feel they have been unfairly excluded from home ownership. Although lower house prices will reduce the deposit needed to obtain a mortgage, it is first-time buyers who depend most on debt financing, which is now expensive. And a whole new class of financially vulnerable homeowners are about to join the ranks of the discontented.
这就是政治因素发挥作用的地方。房地产市场已经是一个战场。繁琐的繁文缛节使得在大城市建造新房变得非常困难，从而导致住房短缺。发达国家的一代年轻人感到他们被不公平地排除在拥有住房之外。尽管较低的房价将降低获得抵押贷款所需的押金，但首次购房者最依赖债务融资，目前债务融资成本很高。一个全新的经济脆弱的房主阶层即将加入不满的行列。
Dangerous propertiesHaving bailed out the economy repeatedly in the past 15 years, most Western governments will be tempted to come to the rescue yet again. In America fears of a housing calamity have led some to urge the Fed to slow its vital rate rises. Spain is reported to be considering limiting rising mortgage payments, and Hungary has already done so. Expect more countries to follow.
在过去的15年里，大多数西方国家的政府已经多次对经济进行了纾困，现在他们可能会再次出手救助。在美国，对房地产灾难的担忧已经促使一些人敦促美联储放慢其至关重要的加息速度。据报道，西班牙正在考虑限制不断上涨的抵押贷款支付，匈牙利也已经这样做了。预计会有更多国家效仿。
That could see governments’ debts rise still further and encourage the idea that home ownership is a one-way bet backed by the state. And it would also do little to solve the underlying problems that bedevil the rich world’s housing markets, many of which are due to ill-guided and excessive government intervention, from mortgage subsidies and distortive taxes to excessively onerous planning rules. As an era of low interest rates comes to an end, a home-price crunch is coming—and there is no guarantee of a better housing market at the end of it all.
这可能会导致政府债务进一步上升，并助长房屋所有权是由政府支持的单向押注的想法。而且，这也无助于解决困扰发达国家房地产市场的根本问题，其中许多问题都是由于引导不当和过度的政府干预，从抵押贷款补贴、扭曲的税收到过于繁重的规划规定。随着低利率时代的结束，房价危机也即将到来，而且没有人能保证在这一切结束时，房地产市场可以好转。
