2015–2018年AER中国相关论文汇总
The American Economic Review 由美国经济学会(American Economic Association)于1911年创立，被誉为美国最重要、影响最大的经济理论期刊。本期，我们推送2015年至2018年AER上发表的与中国相关的论文摘要。
文章目录
Killer Cities: Past and Present
The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China
Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012
Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China
China’s Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
Hayek, Local Information, and Commanding Heights: Decentralizing State-Owned Enterprises in China
WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms
Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States
The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
Media Bias in China
1. Killer Cities: Past and Present
Hanlon, W. W., & Tian, Y. (2015). Killer cities: Past and present. American Economic Review, 105(5), 570-575.
Abstract: The industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live. How much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years? To help answer this question, we compare mortality patterns in 19th century England to those in Chinese urban areas in 2000. We document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period. Unlike historical English cities, large cities in China have lower mortality than less populated areas. However, we also provide evidence that in China a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains.
中文摘要: 19世纪时，工业城市是极其不健康的居住地之选。在过去的150年间，大城市在减轻这些健康负面影响方面取得了多少进展？为了回答这个问题，我们比较了19世纪英国和2000年中国城市地区的死亡率模式。研究表明，这一时期许多城市在改善人们健康方面取得了实质性进展。与历史上的英国城市不同，中国大城市的死亡率比人口较少的地区还要低。然而，我们提供的证据也表明，中国的工业污染和死亡率之间仍然存在实质性的关系。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151071
2. The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China
Li, H., Shi, X., & Wu, B. (2015). The retirement consumption puzzle in China. American Economic Review, 105(5), 437-441.
Abstract: Using data from China’s Urban Household Survey and exploiting China’s mandatory retirement policy, we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures. Retirement reduces total non-durable expenditures by 20 percent. Among the categories of non-durable expenditures, retirement reduces work-related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on entertainment expenditures. After excluding these three components, retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non-durable expenditures. It suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if a life-cycle model with home production is considered.
中文摘要: 本文使用中国城市居民调查数据，利用中国强制退休政策带来的外生变异，采用断点回归的方法来估计退休对家庭支出的影响。退休使得非耐用品总支出减少20%。在非耐用支出类别中，退休减少了与工作相关的支出和在家里的食品消费支出，但对娱乐支出的影响不显著。排除这三个组成部分后，退休对其余非耐用品支出没有影响。这表明，如果考虑有家庭生产的生命周期模型，退休消费之谜可能不是一个谜。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151007
3. Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012
Ebenstein, A., Fan, M., Greenstone, M., He, G., Yin, P., & Zhou, M. (2015). Growth, pollution, and life expectancy: China from 1991–2012. American Economic Review, 105(5), 226-231.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between income, pollution, and mortality in China from 1991-2012. Using first-difference models, we document a robust positive association between city-level GDP and life expectancy. We also find a negative association between city-level particulate air pollution exposure and life expectancy that is driven by elevated cardiorespiratory mortality rates. The results suggest that while China’s unprecedented economic growth over the last two decades is associated with health improvements, pollution has served as a countervailing force.
中文摘要: 本文研究了1991至2012年中国收入、污染与死亡率之间的关系。使用一阶差分模型，我们发现城市GDP与预期寿命之间存在稳健的正向关系。我们还发现，城市一级的空气颗粒物污染暴露与预期寿命之间存在负相关关系，这种关系是由心肺疾病死亡率的上升所驱动的。结果表明，虽然中国在过去20年里前所未有的经济增长与健康状况的改善有关，但空气污染起到了一定的抵消作用。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20151094
4. Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China
Kee, H. L., & Tang, H. (2016). Domestic value added in exports: Theory and firm evidence from China. American Economic Review, 106(6), 1402-1436.
Abstract: China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China’s rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China’s domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in the period 2000-2007. Such substitution was induced by the country’s trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices.
中文摘要: 大多数国家出口产品的国内增加值在不断减少，而中国是一个特例。本文利用企业和海关交易层面的数据研究了中国出口产品中不断上升的国内增加值成分。研究方法包含了企业异质性，因此减少了聚合偏差。研究发现，在2000年至2007年期间，由于个体加工出口商用国产原材料替代进口原材料，中国出口产品中的国产成分从65%增加到70%。该替代现象背后的原因在于中国的贸易和投资自由化，这种自由化不仅深化了中国在全球价值链中的参与，而且使得国内原材料价格变得低廉。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131687
5. China’s Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
Brunnermeier, M. K., Sockin, M., & Xiong, W. (2017). China's gradualistic economic approach and financial markets. American Economic Review, 107(5), 608-613.
Abstract: China’s gradualistic approach allowed the government to learn how the economy reacts to small policy changes, and to adjust its reforms before implementing them in full. With fully developed financial markets, however, private actors may front-run future policy changes, making it impossible to implement policies gradually. With financial markets, the government faces a time-inconsistency problem. The government would like to commit to a gradualistic approach, but after it observes the economy’s quick reaction, it has no incentive to implement its policies in small steps.
中文摘要: 中国的渐进式方法使政府得以了解经济体对细微政策变动的反应，并能在全面实施改革之前对政策进行调整。然而，随着金融市场的充分发展，个人行动者可能会走在未来政策变化之前，从而使得政策无法逐步实施。就金融市场而言，政府面临着时间不一致的问题。政府希望能承诺采取循序渐进的方法，但在观察到经济的快速反应后，政府没有动力再小步地实施其政策。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171035
6. Hayek, Local Information, and Commanding Heights: Decentralizing State-Owned Enterprises in China
Huang, Z., Li, L., Ma, G., & Xu, L. C. (2017). Hayek, local information, and commanding heights: Decentralizing state-owned enterprises in China. American Economic Review, 107(8), 2455-2478.
Abstract: Hayek (1945) argues that local information is key to understanding the efficiency of alternative economic systems and whether production should be centralized or decentralized. The Chinese experience of decentralizing SOEs confirms this insight: when the distance to the government is farther, the SOE is more likely to be decentralized, and this distance-decentralization link is more pronounced with higher communication costs and greater firm-performance heterogeneity. However, when the Chinese central government oversees SOEs in strategic industries, the distance-decentralization link is muted. We also consider alternative agency-cost-based explanations, and do not find much support.
中文摘要: 哈耶克（1945）认为，地方信息是理解经济体制效率以及决定生产是否应该下放的关键。中国国有企业的分权经验很好地支持了这一观点：国有企业到政府的距离越远，该国企下放分权的可能性越大，而且这种距离-分权的联系在沟通成本较高和企业绩效异质性较大的情况下更为明显。然而，当中央政府直接监管战略性行业的国有企业时，距离与权力下放之间的联系就不那么明显了。我们还考虑了其他基于代理成本的解释，但没有找到足够证据支撑。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150592
7. WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms
Brandt, L., Van Biesebroeck, J., Wang, L., & Zhang, Y. (2017). WTO accession and performance of Chinese manufacturing firms. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2784-2820.
Abstract: We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the average effect of tariff reductions on both. Several novel findings emerge. First, cuts in output tariffs reduce markups, but raise productivity. Second, pro-competitive effects are most important among incumbents, while efficiency gains dominate for new entrants. Third, cuts in input tariffs raise both markups and productivity. We highlight mechanisms that explain these findings in the Chinese context.
中文摘要: 我们研究了中国贸易自由化如何影响制造业企业加价和生产率。由于营业收入通常被用来衡量企业产出，我们无法同时识别企业的市场势力溢价和生产率，但详细的价格平减指数可以被用来估计关税下降对二者的平均效应。本文有一些新发现。首先，出口关税下降会降低企业的市场势力溢价，但同时提高生产率。其次，对现有企业来说，促进竞争的效应最为重要；而对新进入的企业来说，提升效率则占主导地位。第三，进口关税下降同时提高了市场势力溢价和生产率。我们强调了在中国背景下解释这些发现的机制。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20121266
8. Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States
Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2731-2783.
Abstract: We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China’s export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000-2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers’ income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it.
中文摘要: 本文在一般均衡框架下，研究了政策不确定性如何影响企业进入出口市场的投资，进而影响贸易、价格和实际收入。我们估计并量化了2001年中国加入世贸组织后，贸易政策对中国向美国出口的影响。我们发现，中国加入世贸组织后，美国发动贸易战的威胁减小了，这可以解释中国在2000年至2005年期间出口增长的三分之一。减小政策不确定性降低了美国消费者购买商品的价格，并且增加了美国消费者的实际收入，相当于关税永久性下降13个百分点。这些发现提供了政策不确定性对经济活动产生巨大影响的证据，也证明了协议对减少不确定性的重要性。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20141419
9. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
Chen, K., Ren, J., & Zha, T. (2018). The nexus of monetary policy and shadow banking in China. American Economic Review, 108(12), 3891-3936.
Abstract: We study how monetary policy in China influences banks’ shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009–2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the expected decline of traditional bank loans and hampering the effectiveness of monetary policy on total bank credit. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings.
中文摘要: 我们研究了中国货币政策对银行的影子银行业务的影响。我们开发并估计了内生转换的货币政策规则，该规则基于制度事实，根据泰勒（1993）的精神是可处理的。利用这一政策规则和两个新构建的微观银行数据集，我们得到以下经验证据。2009–2015年期间，紧缩货币政策导致影子银行贷款迅速增长，这抵消了传统银行贷款的预期下降，削弱了货币政策对调节银行信贷总量的有效性。我们对该实证发现提出了理论解释。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20170133
10. Media Bias in China
Qin, B., Strömberg, D., & Wu, Y. (2018). Media bias in China. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2442-76.
Abstract: This paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government-owned newspapers in China from 1981 to 2011. We measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content (propaganda) relative to commercial content. We first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits (reduced competition) affected media bias by increasing product specialization, with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content. Second, lower-level governments produce less-biased content and launch commercial newspapers earlier, eroding higher-level governments’ political goals. Third, bottom-up competition intensifies the politico-economic tradeoff, leading to product proliferation and less audience exposure to propaganda.
中文摘要: 本文研究了1981年至2011年间，市场竞争如何影响国有报刊的政治偏向性。我们以政府喉舌内容（政治宣传）相对于商业内容的报道量来衡量这种媒体偏向。首先，我们发现一项迫使报纸退出市场的改革（减少市场竞争）通过增强产品专业化从而影响了媒体偏向：一些报纸更加专注于政治宣传，而另一些则专注于商业内容。其次，下级政府管控的报纸政治偏向性更小，并且更早地推出商业报刊，从而侵蚀了上级政府的政治目标。第三，自下而上的竞争加剧了报纸在政治-经济之间的权衡取舍，并且导致产品不断涌现，观众暴露于政治宣传的机会也相应减少。
链接: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20170947
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来源：环境与发展经济学
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