文章概括：这篇文章批评了富裕国家的财政政策，认为其过于鲁莽和不负责任。文章指出，高通胀和低失业应该需要更加严格的预算控制，而不是进一步放宽政府支出。作者对富裕国家政府的赤字和债务的增长表示关切，并指出高利率可能导致金融不稳定和对政府预算的负面影响。然而，政界人士未能采取有效的措施来改变这种局面，他们对于财政纪律的努力并不够。文章指出，人口老龄化、净零碳排放和国防开支的需求对国家来说是重要的，但政府要满足这些需求，就需要考虑提高税收或接受最终导致通货膨胀的后果。总体而言，文章呼吁政府在财政政策上更加谨慎和负责任。

Leaders | Recklessly red

社论 | 鲁莽的左翼政策

Fiscal policy in the rich world is mind-bogglingly reckless

富裕世界的财政政策令人难以置信地鲁莽

High inflation and low unemployment require tighter budgets not looser ones

高通胀和低失业率需要紧缩预算，而不是放松

image: AP

图像：AP

Jun 14th 2023

2023年6月14日

The dire state of rich-world governments’ budgets would make even the luxury-loving Madame Bovary wince. America has avoided a debt-ceiling disaster, but in the year to May the federal government’s revenue fell short of its spending by $2.1trn, or 8.1% of GDP. In the European Union politicians are finding that rising interest rates mean the debts financing much of the bloc’s €800bn ($865bn) in post-pandemic recovery spending threaten to drain the common budget. Japan’s government recently omitted from its economic-policy framework a timetable for balancing its primary budget, which excludes interest payments but is still in the red by more than 6% of GDP. And on June 13th Britain’s cost of borrowing for two years rose above the levels reached after its calamitous “mini-budget” in September.

富裕国家政府预算的可怕状态，甚至让嗜好奢侈的包法利夫人也会皱起眉头。美国避免了债务上限的灾难，但在截至5月的一年里，联邦政府的税收与支出相比相差2.1万亿美元，占国内生产总值的8.1%。在欧盟，政界人士发现不断上升的利率意味着资助欧盟8000亿欧元（8650亿美元）的后疫情恢复支出的债务有可能耗尽公共预算。日本政府最近在其经济政策框架中省略了平衡主要预算的时间表，该预算不包括利息支付，但仍有超过国内生产总值6%的赤字。而在6月13日，英国的借款成本为两年期以上，超过了其在9月份灾难性的“迷你预算政策”之后的水平。

Global fiscal policy does not only look reckless—it is also unsuited to today’s economic circumstances. High inflation and low unemployment mean the world needs tight policy, not loose. On June 14th the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while it waited for more signals about the health of the economy. But with underlying inflation above 5%, few believe it will stand pat for long. As we published this leader, the European Central Bank was poised to raise interest rates again. The Bank of England will almost certainly follow on June 22nd; with nominal pay rising at an annual rate of 6.5%, Britain is uniquely exposed to the threat of a wage-price spiral.

全球财政政策不仅看起来鲁莽，而且也不适合当前的经济环境。高通胀和低失业意味着世界需要紧缩的政策，而不是放松的政策。在我们发表这篇社论文章的同时，美联储在等待更多关于经济健康状况的信号时保持利率稳定。但由于潜在通胀率超过5%，很少有人相信它会长期保持不变。正如我们在这篇社论文章发表之时，欧洲央行正准备再次提高利率。英格兰银行几乎可以肯定会在6月22日跟进；由于名义工资以每年6.5%的速度上涨，英国独特地面临着工资-物价螺旋上升的威胁。

Politicians’ failure to get the memo is astonishing. America’s deficit has previously exceeded 6% only in periods of turmoil: during the second world war, after the global financial crisis and, most recently, following covid-19 lockdowns. Today no such disaster makes vast emergency spending necessary. Even the energy crisis in Europe that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in abeyance. The main effect of all this lavish borrowing has been to stimulate economies, forcing interest rates higher than they would otherwise need to go.

政界人士对此置若罔闻的行为令人震惊。美国的赤字以前只在动荡时期超过6%：包括二战期间、全球金融危机结束后以及最近的新冠疫情结束后。今天，并没有任何灾难使庞大的紧急支出变得必要。即使是由俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引起的欧洲能源危机也已经暂时解除。这种奢侈借贷的主要影响是刺激经济，迫使利率上升到原本不必要的水平。

Higher interest rates make financial instability more likely. They also affect government budgets. For every one-percentage-point rise in rates, the British government’s debt-service costs rise by 0.5% of GDP within a year. One reason America faces a revenue shortfall is that the Fed’s profits, which flow into the Treasury’s coffers, have turned to losses as the central bank has had to pay more interest on the money it created to buy bonds during the stimulus years. These feedback effects matter. Monetary policy controls inflation only if budgets are prudent, which becomes less likely as interest bills mount.

更高的利率会增加金融不稳定性。它们也会影响政府预算。利率每上升一个百分点，英国政府的债务服务成本在一年内就会增加国内生产总值的0.5%。美国面临税收不足的一个原因是美联储的利润流入财政部的资金已经转为亏损，因为在刺激年份期间，央行不得不支付更多的利息来购买债券。这些反馈效应是重要的。只有在预算审慎的情况下，货币政策才能控制通胀，而随着利息支出的增加，这种可能性变得越来越小。

Yet politicians’ efforts to change course have been paltry. Even after the “Fiscal Responsibility Act”, which lifted America’s debt ceiling and trimmed spending, net public debt is forecast to rise from 98% of GDP today to 115% by 2033. The British government, having planned to tighten its belt last year, now reportedly hopes to cut taxes. The euro zone looks solid enough as a whole but many of its member states are fragile. At the interest rates now priced in—and they could yet rise further—bringing down Italy’s already huge debt-to-GDP ratio at the glacial pace of one point per year over several decades probably requires surpluses before interest payments of 2.4% of GDP.

然而，政界人士改变事情走向的努力微不足道。即使在解除了美国债务上限并削减支出的“财政责任法案”之后，净公共债务预计从今天的国内生产总值98%上升到2033年的115%。据报道，英国政府原本计划在去年收紧腰带，现在却希望减税。整个欧元区整体看起来足够稳定，但其许多成员国却很脆弱。考虑到目前的利率以及进一步上升的可能性，逐渐降低意大利的巨额债务与GDP比率需要每年仅减少一个百分点，并持续数十年。这可能要求产生相当于国内生产总值2.4%的盈余，用于支付利息之前的支出。

All the while, pension and health-care systems face the strain of an ageing population; reaching net-zero carbon emissions requires public investments; and defence spending needs to rise to counter the threat posed by autocracies. These demands on the state are not unworthy. But if governments want to satisfy them, they will need to raise taxes to do so—or accept the eventual inflationary consequences. 

与此同时，养老金和医疗保健系统面临着人口老龄化带来的压力；实现净零碳排放需要公共投资；而国防开支也需要增加以应对专制国家带来的威胁。这些对国家的需求并非毫无价值。但如果政府希望满足这些需求，它们将需要通过提高税收来实现，否则就必须接受最终的通货膨胀后果。