《经济学人》双语：如何应对厄尔尼诺现象？

原文标题：
Fair warning
El Niño has started. Preparations must too
It will bring chaotic weather to much of the world
合理警告
厄尔尼诺现象已经开始，必须做好准备工作
它将给世界大部分地区带来混乱的天气

[Paragraph 1]
CALIFORNIA RARELY sees the types of hurricanes and storms that routinely pummel Florida, Louisiana and Texas.
加州很少像佛州、路易斯安那和德克萨斯州那样经常遭受飓风和风暴袭击。

But on August 20th tropical storm Hilary slammed into it from the south. Unprecedented amounts of rain pelted downtown Los Angeles and flooded the state’s arid valleys.
但8月20日，热带风暴“希拉里”从南部袭击了加州。史无前例的降雨量砸在了洛杉矶市中心，并淹没了加州干旱的山谷地区。

Without missing a beat, forecasts then shifted from drenching to baking, as a heat dome fastened itself over much of the southern United States all the way up to the Great Lakes.
紧接着，天气预报从暴雨转变为酷热，因为一个热带高压圈覆盖了南部美国，且一直延伸到五大湖地区。

[Paragraph 2]
Barely a day has gone by this summer without news of some extreme weather somewhere in the world.
今年夏天，世界上几乎没有一天不发生极端天气。

Although weather is always breaking records, that raises fears of what it will be like when the climate warms further.
尽管天气总在刷新纪录，但这引发了人们对气候进一步变暖时会出现什么样子的担忧。

To add to the alarm, America’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate pattern that shows up every two to seven years and raises global temperatures.
为了加大警惕，美国国家海洋和大气管理局宣布厄尔尼诺现象的到来，这种气候模式每2-7年出现一次，会导致全球气温上升。

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As a consequence, there is a good chance that this will be the hottest year on record; and that 2024 will be hotter still, with temperatures approaching 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
因此，今年很有可能成为有记录以来最热的一年；2024 年将会更加炎热，气温将比工业化前水平高出近 1.4°C。

Some tropical regions will suffer damaging floods, and others will suffer droughts, with worrying consequences for food supplies and the spread of disease.
一些热带地区将遭受毁灭性的洪水，而其他地区将饱受干旱之苦，这将给粮食供应和疾病传播带来严重后果。

As with climate change itself, the time to prepare for the coming upheaval of El Niño is now.
与应对气候变化本身一样，现在应该为即将到来的厄尔尼诺现象做好充分准备。

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On current forecasts, this El Niño is likely to be a strong one.
根据目前的预测，这轮厄尔尼诺现象可能会很严重。

The last such cycle was in 2014-16, and was ruinous in the countries it hit hardest.
上一轮厄尔尼诺现象发生在2014-2016年，给受灾最严重的国家造成了严重破坏。

Droughts led South African food production to fall to a 20-year low and ignited one of Indonesia’s worst-ever spates of wildfires.
干旱导致南非粮食产量降至 20 年来的最低水平，并引发了印度尼西亚有史以来最严重的一次野火肆虐。

At the same time warmer and wetter weather fuelled disease across South America, including the worst outbreak of infections from the Zika virus in 65 years.
与此同时，湿热的气候导致南美洲疾病蔓延，其中包括 65 年来最严重的寨卡病毒感染疫情。

[Paragraph 5]
One reason the effects of this El Niño are likely to be severe is that they will be felt on top of more global warming.
这轮厄尔尼诺现象的影响很可能会非常严重，原因之一是它将叠加在全球变暖的背景下。

Although it is only just getting going—El Niños are named after the baby Jesus because they tend to peak around Christmas—it has already contributed to the closure of the world’s largest fishery, as anchovies have fled the coastal waters of Peru.
虽然厄尔尼诺现象才刚刚开始——厄尔尼诺现象以圣婴耶稣的名字命名，因为厄尔尼诺现象往往在圣诞节前后达到高峰——但它已经导致了世界上最大的渔业的关闭，因为秘鲁沿海水域的凤尾鱼已经逃离。

It has also rocked the global rice market, as India has pre-emptively banned most exports of its crop.
由于印度已经预先禁止了大部分大米的出口，这也震动了全球大米市场。

[Paragraph 6]
Humanitarian agencies have warned about the threats to food security and sanitation and from outbreaks of disease including malaria, dengue and cholera in large parts of Africa and South America.
人道主义机构已经警告称，非洲和南美地区的大部分地区粮食安全、卫生以及疟疾、登革热和霍乱等疾病爆发方面面临威胁。

South-East Asia is likely to see excessively hot and dry weather. Widespread fires in Indonesia could affect air quality across Asia.
东南亚可能会遭受异常炎热和干旱的天气。印度尼西亚的大规模火灾可能会影响整个亚洲的空气质量。

[Paragraph 7]
Frightening as these dangers are, it is possible to prepare for some of them before they strike.
尽管这些危险令人恐惧，但我们可以在其中一些危险发生之前做好准备。

Seasonal forecasts are much more reliable than they were in 2014-16.
与 2014-16 年相比，本轮季节性预测要可靠得多。

These can help steer funds in order to improve water infrastructure pre-emptively, for example, or to reinforce buildings in regions likely to be hit by storms—rather than after disaster has struck.
这些预测可以帮助合理分配资金，例如及时改善水利基础设施，或者加固那些可能受到风暴袭击的地区的建筑物，而不是等到灾害发生后才采取行动。

By wisely building resilience before an El Niño, you can minimise the damage and hence the spending on emergency help and repairs.
在厄尔尼诺现象来临之前，提高抗灾能力是明智之举，这样可以最大限度地减少损失，从而减少用于紧急救援和维修的开支。

[Paragraph 8]
Some aid agencies are indeed using better forecasts to start planning ahead.
一些援助机构确实正在利用更好的预测来提前进行规划。

The World Health Organisation has begun working with the World Meteorological Organisation so that it can successfully predict where best to allocate medical supplies and personnel.
例如，世界卫生组织已开始与世界气象组织合作，以便能够成功预测最佳医疗物资和人员分配的地点。

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This is just a tiny fraction of the aid that is needed.
这只是所需援助的冰山一角。

Only 1% of disaster funding raised through UN appeals between 2014 and 2017 was allocated in advance, despite one in five events being highly predictable.
在2014年至2017年间，通过联合国呼吁筹集的赈灾资金中，尽管1/5的事件高度可预测，但仅有1%的资金可提前分配。

Natural disasters were estimated to have affected 185m people worldwide last year, but fewer than 4m were helped through anticipatory measures.
据估计，去年全球有 1.85 亿人受灾，但只有不到400万灾民通过预防措施得到了帮助。

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The trouble is that many of the countries which will bear the brunt of the effects of El Niño are still reeling from previous disasters.
问题在于，许多即将首当其冲受到厄尔尼诺现象影响的国家，仍在从之前的灾难后遗症中苦苦挣扎。

Some of those are linked to past episodes of extreme droughts and floods, others to the lingering effects of covid-19 and the spike in food prices caused by the war in Ukraine.
其中一些与过去的特大干旱和洪水有关，另一些则与新冠疫情的持续影响以及乌克兰战争导致的粮食价格上涨有关。

It is a reminder of the difficulties of dealing with climate change: stresses come thick and fast without giving governments and societies enough time to recover.
这提醒我们应对气候变化的困难：问题层出不穷，而政府和社会没有足够的时间来恢复。

Yet that only strengthens the case for helping countries that cannot afford to pay for their own preparations.
然而，这只是增加了“需要帮助那些无力承担自身准备费用的国家”的理由。

Whoever foots the bill, it is a false economy to skimp on spending today when there is a known chance of disaster tomorrow.
不管由谁承担费用，在已知明天可能发生灾害的情况下，今天节省开支是一种错误的经济行为。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量825左右）
原文出自：2023年8月26日《The Economist》Leaders版块

精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路

本文翻译整理: Irene

本文编辑校对: Irene
仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络）
厄尔尼诺El Niño一词来源于西班牙语，原意为“圣婴”。19世纪初，在南美洲的厄瓜多尔、秘鲁等西班牙语系的国家，渔民们发现，每隔几年，从10月至第二年的3月便会出现一股沿海岸南移的暖流，使表层海水温度明显升高。南美洲的太平洋东岸本来盛行的是秘鲁寒流，随着寒流移动的鱼群使秘鲁渔场成为世界三大渔场之一，但这股暖流一出现，性喜冷水的鱼类就会大量死亡，使渔民们遭受灭顶之灾。由于这种现象最严重时往往在圣诞节前后，于是遭受天灾而又无可奈何的渔民将其称为上帝之子－－圣婴。

【重点句子】（3个）
Some tropical regions will suffer damaging floods, and others will suffer droughts, with worrying consequences for food supplies and the spread of disease.
一些热带地区将遭受毁灭性的洪水，而其他地区将饱受干旱之苦，这将给粮食供应和疾病传播带来严重后果。

Frightening as these dangers are, it is possible to prepare for some of them before they strike.
尽管这些危险令人恐惧，但我们可以在其中一些危险发生之前做好准备。

It is a reminder of the difficulties of dealing with climate change: stresses come thick and fast without giving governments and societies enough time to recover.
这提醒我们应对气候变化的困难：问题层出不穷，而政府和社会没有足够的时间来恢复。