How to Evaluate a Potential Employer in a Downturn

马洛·莱昂斯（Marlo Lyons） |  文 

Stacey* had a stable job as an executive recruiter at an executive search firm, but she really wanted to work in-house at a technology company. When she accepted an offer with her dream company, she took some time to hire her replacement to leave her firm in a good place. Days before her start date in her dream role, her offer was rescinded, leaving her stunned. “I felt confident and had numerous conversations about runway, where my role fit in, what would happen if hiring slowed down, and candid conversations about where they were in the market if the market shifted,” she told me.

高管猎头斯泰西（Stacey）之前的工作非常稳定，但一直非常想去科技公司。她接受了理想公司的入职邀约，花了不少时间找好接替自己工作的人，确保离职后公司基本不受影响。就在她即将入职理想工作之前几天，邀约被撤销了，她惊讶得目瞪口呆。“我很自信，针对离职、如何发挥岗位职能、如果招聘延缓会怎样，以及如果市场波动该公司市场地位变化等问题坦诚交谈过多次。”她告诉我。

When the offer was rescinded, she learned there was no severance compensation, she didn't qualify for unemployment because she had resigned from her previous company, and there was no student loan deferment option. “I'm lucky. I have savings and a great network.” But she recognizes that this isn't just happening to her.

入职邀约撤销时她才得知没有遣散费，也不能算失业，因为她已经从之前的公司辞职，也没有助学贷款延期的选项。“幸运的是我有存款，还有强大的人脉。”但她意识到自己并非唯一有此遭遇的人。

With rising interest rates, high inflation, political issues, and war all contributing to a roller coaster global economic outlook, it's hard to know whether to stay in a stable job — no matter how unhappy you are — or make a move when it's unclear how changing economic conditions could affect your employment. While you can't eliminate the risks entirely, here are some ways to lower them when making a move.

随着利率上升、高通胀、政治问题和战争阴影，全球经济前景仿佛坐上过山车，不管工作得开不开心，很难知道当下更应该保住稳定饭碗，还是在经济动荡对工作的影响并不明朗之际就采取行动。虽然做不到完全消除风险，但采取具体行动时还是有些方法能降低风险。

Research the company.

调查公司

Public companies are required by law to disclose their financial performance, so there is a plethora of information about them. You can review earning reports such as 10-Q and 10-K reports in SEC's EDGAR system to understand the company's profitability, financial standing, and the overall business performance. If you want even more data, join earnings calls, where financial analysts ask questions about the reports. Many companies provide access to the recorded calls on their websites.

法律要求上市公司披露财务业绩，因此有大量公开信息。可以在美国证券交易委员会的EDGAR系统中查看利润表，如10-Q和10-K报告，以了解公司的盈利能力、财务状况和整体业绩。如果想了解更多数据，可以听财报会议，会上财务分析师会针对报告提出问题。很多公司在网站上提供会议记录。

It's harder to find information on private companies and startups, which are not required to disclose their financial performance. Understanding how the company is funded — whether it's by friends and family or a reputable venture capital firm like Andreessen Horowitz, Kleiner Perkins, or Bessemer Venture Partners — will help you assess risk. When VC firms or other successful companies invest, they'll usually do everything in their power to protect their investments. Also, research the CEO and their track record at other companies. And if you really want to show your investigative prowess, research the local courts for civil lawsuits, which can tell you if the company has ever been delinquent in paying suppliers, has any tax liens, or has filed for bankruptcy in the past.

有关私人公司和初创公司的信息比较难找，因为此类公司无需披露财务业绩。了解公司的资金来源有助于评估风险，可以通过朋友和家人，也可以通过安德烈森·霍洛维茨（Andreessen Horowitz）、凯鹏华盈（Kleiner Perkins）或柏尚投资（Bessemer Venture Partners）等知名风险投资公司。风投公司或其他成功公司投资时，通常会竭力保护自己的投资。此外，研究首席执行官以及在其他公司的从业业绩。如果确实想展示调查能力，还可以研究当地法庭的民事诉讼，以便了解到目标公司是否曾拖欠供应商货款，有没有税收留置权，或者过去是否申请过破产。

Finally, whether the company is public or private, check websites like Crunchbase and Intellizence for layoff-reporting data. Reviewing LinkedIn for the average tenure of the employees at the company may also help you understand how it's growing and whether employees stay long term.

最后，无论公司上市与否，都要查看Crunchbase和Intellizence等网站的裁员报告数据。在领英（LinkedIn）查看员工在公司的平均任期，也有助于了解其发展情况以及员工是否长期留任。

Understand the industry.

了解行业

Do you work in an industry that's recession proof, or one that's particularly vulnerable? For example, when interest rates increase, home sales decrease, so realtors and mortgage companies are particularly vulnerable. Long Island-based lender Sprout Mortgage abruptly closed this month, laying off more than 300 workers. In June, Redfin announced an 8% staff cut, and Compass announced a 10% cut.

你工作的行业是经济不景气，还是特别脆弱？举个例子，利率走高时房屋销售下降，因此房地产经纪人和抵押贷款公司尤其脆弱。本月总部位于长岛的抵押贷款公司Sprout Mortgage突然倒闭，解雇了300多名员工。6月，Redfin宣布裁员8%，Compass宣布裁员10%。

Looking at other companies in an industry may help you forecast how market changes impact the industry. For example, One Trust, a security software company, laid off 950 employees — 25% of its workforce — as part of a reorganization even though the company had record quarters and increased customer demand. While it may seem like there was no way to predict this, reviewing competitors like Lacework, which cut its workforce by 20% a month earlier, may have been a predictor of other companies' future in the same industry.

观察行业中其他公司可能有助于预测市场变化对行业的影响。例如，虽然安全软件公司One Trust季度业绩创下纪录，客户需求增加，然而重组期间解雇了950名员工（占员工总数25%）。虽然看起来似乎很难预测，但可以回头看Lacework之类竞争对手，一个月前该公司裁员了20%，可能用来预测同行业其他公司的未来趋势。

Understanding the industry requires reading press on the company you're interviewing for, its competitors, and the industry itself. What differentiates one company's product from another? How is the customer base growing? What is the company's brand awareness in the overall industry? Of course, also read Glassdoor and Blind reviews, but keep in mind that many people post after they leave a company, so the information may be skewed.

如果想了解行业，需要阅读有关面试公司、竞争对手和行业的新闻。一家公司的产品与另一家公司区别在哪？客户群如何增长？公司在行业内品牌知名度如何？当然也可以阅读Glassdoor和Blind评论，但请记住，很多人是离开公司后才发表评论，因此信息可能会有偏差。

Ask strategic questions during the interview process.

面试过程中提出战略性问题

Stacey was reassured multiple times that the new company wouldn’t be slowing down hiring. She now recognizes that as a red flag because the recruiter dismissed the question instead of having deeper insight into the company's talent acquisition plans. “That rings alarm bells, because every company should be adjusting what they're doing right now.” She wishes she had pressed a bit harder and asked more specific questions. Here are other questions to consider:

新公司曾多次向斯泰西保证，不会放缓招聘速度。如今她才认识到这是危险信号，因为这说明招聘人员显然在敷衍，并未深入了解公司的人才招聘计划。“这敲响了警钟，因为现在每家公司都应有所调整。”她希望当初自己进一步施压，提些更具体的问题。以下是其他需要考虑的问题：

To the hiring manager:

询问招聘经理：

→How is the company adjusting its hiring approach to market fluctuations?

→公司如何根据市场波动调整招聘策略？

→Are there any concerns about hiring freezes or hiring slowdowns in the future?

→是否担心未来的招聘冻结或放缓？

→How far out does the company model its strategic plan?

→公司如何制定战略规划？

→If the company is a startup, when will the company be seeking its next round of financing? What happens if economic shifts make it hard to obtain funding or delays it? It's important to understand whether the company can maintain its workforce if funding falls through.

→如果公司是初创企业，何时进入下一轮募资？如果经济变化导致募资困难或延迟，会如何应对？重点了解，如果资金不足，公司能否维持员工队伍？

→What is the vision for the company? If they can't answer that, there's a chance the strategy is not strong or hasn't reached lower levels of the company.

→公司的愿景是什么？如果没法回答，说明战略可能不够强大，或者公司基层员工并未知晓。

→How many employees did the company have four years ago, three years ago, two years ago, last year, and now? Is there consistent and stable growth?

→四年前、三年前、两年前、去年和现在，公司员工人数分别是多少？是否持续稳定增长？

→How many people were hired last year compared to 2020 when Covid-19 hit?

→去年公司招聘了多少人，与2020年新冠疫情暴发时相比增加还是减少？

To other interviewers:

询问其他面试官：

→Did the company have layoffs when Covid-19 shut down the country? The answer could show a trend when there's an interruption in business.

→新冠疫情导致全国封锁时，公司有没有裁员？从答案能看出业务中断时的趋势。

→Have supply chain issues impacted the business? If yes, how has the company overcome them?

→供应链问题有没有影响到业务？如果是，公司如何克服问题？

→How long has the current department leader been in place? If it's been a short time, is the department bracing for a reorganization (which could mean layoffs)?

→现任部门领导任职多久？如果时间很短，部门是否准备重组（这可能意味着裁员）？

→Did employees receive market raises the past two years?

→过去两年，员工是否根据市场情况加薪？

→Were bonuses paid out at the company?

→公司发不发奖金？

If your questions haven't been answered, ask if it's possible to follow up with someone who can answer them for you, which will give you more peace of mind.

如果问题没得到回答，问问可否找到能回答的人，这样能让人更放心。

Talk to your network.

跟朋友谈谈：

If you know a current or former employee or have a contact who can put you in touch with someone at the company, ask for a meet and greet. The best way to learn about a company is to talk to people who aren't on the interview panel who can provide you with their real experiences. If you talk to a former employee, their information may be skewed depending on how and why they departed the company. But the more information you can gather, the less risk you'll have when you make the move.

如果你认识该公司现任或前任员工，或者有朋友能帮你跟公司某个人搭上线，务必请他安排见面聊一聊。了解一家公司最佳的方式是跟不参加面试的人交谈，他们可以为你提供真实经历。如果跟前员工交谈，得到的信息可能根据他们离开公司的方式和原因而有所偏差。不过收集的信息越多，采取行动的风险就越小。

. . .

When Stacey's offer was rescinded, her former employer asked her if she wanted to stay on, but she still had the same goal to work in a tech company, so she declined. “I'm not a recruiter who knows a bazillion recruiters out there,” she said, but she realized people were willing to help. Even the manager who rescinded the offer made some introductions. After talking with numerous companies and evaluating each company's stability thoroughly, she accepted a new offer in a tech company and started immediately.

斯泰西的入职邀约撤销时，前公司问她是否愿意留下，但她初心未改还是想去科技公司工作，所以拒绝了。她说，“我并不认识无数招聘人员，”但她发现大家都愿意帮忙。就连撤销入职邀请的经理也介绍了一些机会。跟多家公司交谈并深入评估每家公司的稳定性后，最终她接受了一家科技公司的邀请，立刻投身工作。

*Editor’s note: Real name changed for privacy.

编者按：为保护隐私，相关人士姓名已做更改。

马洛·莱昂斯（Marlo Lyons） |  文 

Marlo Lyons is a certified career coach and strategist, HR executive, and the author of Wanted – A New Career: The Definitive Playbook for Transitioning to a New Career or Finding Your Dream Job.