American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023年第2期
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023年第2期
Vol. 15 No. 4 April 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
基于收益的借贷约束与宏观经济波动
Thomas Drechsel
Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their access to debt. This paper studies macroeconomic implications of earnings-based borrowing constraints. In a macro model, firms with earnings-based constraints borrow more in response to positive investment shocks, whereas firms with collateral constraints borrow less. Empirically, aggregate and firm-level credit responds to identified investment shocks according to the predictions with earnings-based constraints. Moreover, with sticky prices, earnings-based constraints imply that supply shocks are quantitatively more important. This is validated in an estimated version of the model, highlighting the importance of carefully modeling credit constraints to understand policy trade-offs.
微观经济学证据揭示了企业当前收益与获得债务之间的直接联系。本文研究了基于收益的借贷约束对宏观经济的影响。在宏观模型中，受盈利约束的公司在应对正面投资冲击时借款更多，而受抵押品约束的公司借款较少。从经验上看，根据基于收益约束的预测，总信贷和企业信贷对确定的投资冲击做出反应。此外，由于价格具有粘性，基于收益的约束意味着供应冲击在数量上更为重要。这在模型的估计版本中得到了验证，强调了仔细建模信贷限制以理解政策权衡的重要性。
Collective Moral Hazard and the Interbank Market
集体道德风险与银行间市场
Levent Altinoglu and Joseph E. Stiglitz
The concentration of risk within the financial system leads to systemic instability. We propose a theory to explain the structure of the financial system and show how it alters the risk-taking incentives of financial institutions when the government optimally intervenes during crises. By issuing interbank claims, risky institutions endogenously become large and interconnected. This concentrated structure enables institutions to share the risk of systemic crises in a privately optimal way but leads to excessive risk taking even by peripheral institutions. Interconnectedness and excessive risk taking reinforce one another. Macroprudential regulation that limits the interconnectedness of risky institutions improves welfare.
风险在金融体系内的集中会导致系统性的不稳定。我们提出了一个理论来解释金融系统的结构，并展示了当政府在危机期间进行最优干预时，它如何改变金融机构的冒险动机。通过发行银行间债权，高风险机构内生地变得庞大并相互关联。这种集中的结构使机构能够以私人最优的方式分担系统性危机的风险，但导致即使是外围机构也会过度冒险。相互联系和过度冒险相互加强。限制高风险机构相互关联性的宏观审慎监管改善了福利。
Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
截面不确定性与商业周期:来自40年期权数据的证据
Ian Dew-Becker and Stefano Giglio
This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional uncertainty varied little between 1980 and 1995 and subsequently had three distinct peaks—during the tech boom, the financial crisis, and the coronavirus epidemic. Cross-sectional uncertainty has had a mixed relationship with overall economic activity, and aggregate uncertainty is much more powerful for forecasting aggregate growth. The data and moments can be used to calibrate and test structural models of the effects of uncertainty shocks. In international data, we find similar dynamics and a strong common factor in cross-sectional uncertainty.
本文提出了一种新颖而独特的横截面不确定性测量方法，由单个公司的股票期权构建而成。在1980年至1995年间，截面不确定性变化不大，随后出现了三个不同的峰值——科技繁荣时期、金融危机时期和冠状病毒流行时期。截面不确定性与整体经济活动的关系好坏参半，总体不确定性在预测总体增长方面要强大得多。这些数据和矩可以用来标定和测试不确定性冲击效应的结构模型。在国际数据中，我们发现了类似的动态变化和横截面不确定性的一个强大的共同因素。
Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks
自残的贸易政策?保护主义和生产网络
Alessandro Barattieri and Matteo Cacciatore
Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns.
利用临时贸易壁垒(ttb)的月度数据，我们估计了保护主义通过垂直生产联系对就业的动态影响。首先，利用高频数据和TTB程序细节，我们确定了外生于经济基本面的贸易政策冲击。然后，我们使用投入产出表来构建影响下游生产者的保护主义措施。最后，我们使用确定的贸易政策冲击来估计面板本地预测。保护主义对受保护产业的有利影响很小且微不足道。对下游产业的影响是负面的、相当大的和显著的。在就业下降之前，中间投入和最终产品价格上涨，股市回报率下降。
The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices
消费者支出对汽油价格变化的反应
Michael Gelman, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman and Steven Tadelis
This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across consumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identification. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individuals. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects.
这篇论文估计了总体消费者支出对汽油价格变化的反应。它利用2014年汽油价格大幅下跌对消费者的不同影响来进行识别。这种估计策略是使用针对大量个体的全面、高频、事务级数据实现的。平均估计边际消费倾向(MPC)的不可预见的，永久性的收入冲击约为1。这一估计考虑了汽油需求的弹性以及对价格变化的潜在缓慢调整。高MPC意味着汽油价格的变化具有较大的综合效应。
State-Dependent Attention and Pricing Decisions
状态依赖注意与定价决策
Javier Turen
This paper studies price-setting decisions under rational inattention. Prices are set by tracking an unobserved target whose distribution is also unknown. Information acquisition is dynamic and fully flexible since, given information acquired previously, price setters choose the amount of information they collect as well as how they want to learn about both the outcome and its distribution. We show that by allowing for imperfect information to be the unique source of rigidity, the model can reconcile stylized facts in the microeconomic evidence on price setting while simultaneously being consistent with empirical results on state-dependent attention.
本文研究了理性忽视条件下的价格制定决策。价格是通过跟踪一个未被观察到的目标来确定的，这个目标的分布也是未知的。信息获取是动态和完全灵活的，因为给定先前获得的信息，价格制定者可以选择他们收集的信息量，以及他们希望如何了解结果及其分布。我们表明，通过允许不完全信息作为刚性的唯一来源，该模型可以协调价格设定微观经济证据中的程式化事实，同时与国家依赖注意力的经验结果一致。
Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks
资本再配置摩擦与贸易冲击
Andrea Lanteri, Pamela Medina and Eugene Tan
What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufacturing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity loss and larger dispersion in marginal products, due to investment inaction and exit of some productive firms. Empirical evidence on the effects of trade shocks on capital reallocation supports the model mechanism.
进口竞争冲击对资本重新配置和总生产率的短期影响是什么?为了解决这个问题，我们建立了一个包含异质企业和资本再配置摩擦的定量模型。我们用秘鲁制造业企业投资动态和中国和秘鲁之间贸易流动的微观数据来约束模型。由于企业缩小规模和退出过程中存在较大的摩擦，进口竞争冲击会导致投资不作为和部分生产性企业退出，从而导致暂时性的总生产率损失和边际产品的较大离散。贸易冲击对资本再配置影响的经验证据支持了模型机制。
The State-Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies
雇佣补贴的国家依赖有效性
Sebastian Graves
The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new finding can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job creation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in recessions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms are near their firing thresholds. Policies that target the job destruction margin, such as employment protection subsidies, are particularly effective at such times.
就业创造对冲击的响应是顺周期的，而就业破坏的响应是逆周期的。这一新发现可以用一个异质企业模型来解释，在这个模型中，雇佣成本导致了不稳定的就业调整。该模型预测，旨在通过鼓励创造就业机会来刺激就业的政策，如雇佣补贴，在经济衰退中效果明显较差:在衰退时期，很少有公司接近他们的招聘门槛，而许多公司接近他们的解雇门槛。针对就业破坏边际的政策，如就业保护补贴，在这种时候尤其有效
Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations
通货膨胀预期的全面调查
Gwangmin Kim and Carola Binder
When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibility that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these "learning-through-survey" effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants generally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat participants may be more informed about or attentive to inflation. This has important implications: for example, inflation expectations of new participants are more influenced by oil prices, and estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are lower for new participants.
当调查依赖于重复参与者时，这就增加了调查参与可能影响未来反应的可能性，也许是通过促进调查浪潮之间的信息获取。我们的研究表明，这种“通过调查学习”的效应对家庭通胀预期影响很大。重复调查的参与者通常有较低的通胀预期和不确定性，特别是如果他们最初的不确定性很高。因此，重复参与者可能更了解或更关注通货膨胀。这具有重要的含义:例如，新参与者的通胀预期受油价的影响更大，对新参与者的跨期替代弹性的估计更低。
Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions
利用剩余限制的SVARs衡量欧元区的货币政策
Harald Badinger and Stefan Schiman
This study measures the effects of monetary policy in the euro area using a small number of sign and magnitude restrictions on the residuals of a structural vector autoregression. We derive the dates and directions of these shocks from high-frequency financial market data around official European Central Bank policy announcements. Based on an in-depth narrative analysis and a comparison of the results with those of a standard high-frequency approach, we argue that our approach is purged from central bank information effects. Despite our rather agnostic identification strategy, we find clear and conclusive effects of monetary policy shocks on a wide range of macroeconomic variables.
本研究对结构向量自回归残差采用少量符号和幅度限制来衡量欧元区货币政策的影响。我们从欧洲央行(ecb)官方政策宣布前后的高频金融市场数据中得出了这些冲击的日期和方向。基于深入的叙事分析以及与标准高频方法的结果比较，我们认为我们的方法消除了中央银行信息的影响。尽管我们的识别策略相当不可知论，但我们发现，货币政策冲击对广泛的宏观经济变量有明确和决定性的影响。
The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity
Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen and David Powell
Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010.
人口老龄化预计将减缓美国经济增长。我们使用各州人口老龄化的预定成分的变化来估计1980-2010年老龄化对人均GDP增长的影响。我们发现，60岁以上人口比例每增加10%，人均GDP就会下降5.5%。三分之一的减少源于就业增长放缓;三分之二是因为劳动生产率增长放缓。劳动报酬和工资也随之下降。我们的估计表明，在1980-2010年期间，人口老龄化使人均GDP增长率每年降低0.3个百分点。
Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
泡沫、崩溃与经济增长:理论与证据
Tomohiro Hirano and Konstantin Kucheryavyy, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
We propose a model to study the role of industry-level external economies of scale in open economies. If the elasticity governing the strength of external economies is below the inverse of the trade elasticity in each industry, then specialization under frictionless trade is consistent with comparative advantage, the model is tractable even with trade frictions, and all countries gain from trade. External economies lower gains from trade except if the country specializes in industries with high scale economies, and they amplify the gains from further trade liberalization except if it leads to specialization in industries with low scale economies.
我们提出了一个模型来研究产业层面的外部规模经济在开放经济中的作用。如果支配外部经济实力的弹性低于每个行业的贸易弹性的倒数，那么无摩擦贸易下的专业化与比较优势是一致的，即使存在贸易摩擦，模型也是可处理的，所有国家都从贸易中获益。外部经济会降低从贸易中获得的收益，除非该国专门从事高规模经济的行业;如果进一步的贸易自由化导致低规模经济的行业专业化，外部经济则会放大从贸易中获得的收益。
Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China
中国城乡迁移、结构转型与住房市场
Aaron Hedlund, Ping Wang
This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the endogenous price response. Land supply expansion ameliorates this negative feedback. Overall, housing markets powerfully shape the path of economic development.
本文通过动态空间平衡模型的视角，研究了城市化、结构转型和2000年后中国房地产繁荣之间的相互关系，该模型以移民和抵押贷款丰富的住房市场结构为特征。城市化和结构转型成为中国房价飙升的主要驱动力，而与此同时，房价上涨阻碍了这些经济转型的力量。促进城市化的政策可能会被内生价格反应所抵消。土地供应扩张改善了这种负反馈。总体而言，房地产市场有力地塑造了经济发展的道路。
Land Misallocation and Productivity
土地错配与生产力
Diego Restuccia and Marco Bonomo, René Garcia, Rodolfo Rigato
We propose a model that reconciles microeconomic evidence of frequent and large price changes with sizable monetary non-neutrality. Firms incur separate lump-sum costs to change prices and to gather and process some information about marginal costs. Additional relevant information is continuously available and can be factored into pricing decisions at no cost. We estimate the model by Simulated Method of Moments, using price-setting statistics for the US economy. The model with free idiosyncratic and costly aggregate information fits well both targeted and untargeted microeconomic moments and generates almost three times as much monetary non-neutrality as the Calvo model.
我们提出了一个模型，该模型调和了频繁而巨大的价格变化的微观经济证据与相当大的货币非中立性。为了改变价格和收集和处理一些关于边际成本的信息，公司会产生单独的一次性成本。额外的相关信息是持续可用的，可以免费考虑到定价决策。我们利用美国经济的价格统计数据，通过模拟矩量法对模型进行估计。该模型具有免费的特殊信息和昂贵的聚合信息，能够很好地适应有目标和无目标的微观经济时刻，产生的货币非中立性几乎是卡尔沃模型的三倍。
