Noise pollution—Humans are imperfect, inconsistent decision-makers

In their new book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein offer strategies for improvement 。

Not only do individuals differ with their peers, they often fail to agree with themselves. Wine experts tasting the same samples for a second time scored fewer than one in five identically. Four lout of five fingerprint examiners altered their original identification decision when presented with contextual information that should not have been a factor in matching prints. In one medical study, assessing angiograms, physicians disagreed with their earlier judgments more than half the time.

Lout  n. /laʊt/举止粗野的男人（或男孩）

angiogram 英 /ˈændʒɪəʊˌɡræm/ n. [特医] 血管造影片

Noise is sometimes good. When different investors size up a trade or book reviewers reach different assessments, the diversity of opinion is beneficial. But more commonly it creates problems. In law noise means unfairness. In business it can be costly.

size up  v. 打量；估计……的大小；判断；（使）符合要求或规格；评估

book reviewer：书评家

Yet it can be reduced. The authors' remedies include a "noise audit" to measure the degree of disagreement on the same cases, to quantify the variation that is usually invisible. They also call for better "decision hygiene" such as designating an observer for group decisions, to prevent common biases and noisy judgments. For example, they can ensure that participants in a team reach independent assessments before coming together as a group to aggregate their decisions.

remedy    /ˈremədi/  1. 处理方法；改进措施；补偿 •There is no simple remedy for unemployment. 失业问题没有简单的解决办法。2.疗法；治疗；药品 •a herbal remedy 草药 3.(律) ~ (against sth) （通过法律程序的）解决方法，救济 •Holding copyright provides the only legal remedy against unauthorized copying. 持有版权是制止盗版的唯一法律手段。

Another solution is to dispense with people altogether. Statistical models, pre-determined rules and algorithms in many cases are more accurate than human judgment. The authors welcome artificial intelligence to make many decisions in society, but acknowledge that people are predisposed to resisting their answers, for lack of the personal, emotional quality in decision-making-even if it leads to inferior, or at least variable decisions.

dispense with：无需，免除；省掉

Predispose  v. /ˌpriːdɪˈspəʊz/  1. ~ sb to sth/to do sth  使倾向于；使受…的影响 •He believes that some people are predisposed to criminal behaviour. 他认为有些人容易犯罪。2.~ sb to sth 使易于患（某种病） ；容易诱发 •Stress can predispose people to heart attacks. 紧张容易使人心脏病发作。

The trio speaks with credibility. Mr Kahneman is a Nobel laureate whose ideas on bias in human reasoning have reshaped economics and society ; Mr Sunstein is a polymath scholar at Harvar and occasional government official putting his ideas into policy ;Mr Sibony is a former McKinsey partner who teaches decision science at a French business school.Yet despite the book's title, the authors struggled to extract the signal from the noise, so to speak, needing som 400 pages to make their case. A tighter argument would have enhanced the idea they present.

laureate  n. /ˈlɒriət/ 荣誉获得者；获奖者 •a Nobel laureate 诺贝尔奖获得者

human reasoning [人类] 人的推理法 

译文

Not only do individuals differ with their peers, they often fail to agree with themselves. Wine experts tasting the same samples for a second time scored fewer than one in five identically. Four lout of five fingerprint examiners altered their original identification decision when presented with contextual information that should not have been a factor in matching prints. In one medical study, assessing angiograms, physicians disagreed with their earlier judgments more than half the time.

不仅个人与他人存在差异，自己个人判断也存在偏差。葡萄酒专家第二次品尝同样的样品时，评分一样的几乎不足五分之一。当提供的背景信息是匹配指纹的无关因素时，5个指纹鉴定师中有4个蠢蛋改变了原来的鉴定决定。在一项评估血管造影的医学研究中，医生有超过一半的时间不同意他们之前的判断。

Noise is sometimes good. When different investors size up a trade or book reviewers reach different assessments, the diversity of opinion is beneficial. But more commonly it creates problems. In law noise means unfairness. In business it can be costly.

噪音有时候是有益处的。当不同的投资者评估交易或者书评家得出不同的评价时，多样性的意见是有好处的。但更多的时候是产生问题。在法律范畴内，噪音意味着不公平；在商业领域，噪音可能会是高成本的。

Yet it can be reduced. The authors' remedies include a "noise audit" to measure the degree of disagreement on the same cases, to quantify the variation that is usually invisible. They also call for better "decision hygiene" such as designating an observer for group decisions, to prevent common biases and noisy judgments. For example, they can ensure that participants in a team reach independent assessments before coming together as a group to aggregate their decisions.

但噪音是可以减少的。作者的补救措施包括“噪音审计”，用来衡量同一案件中分歧的程度，以量化通常看不见的差异。他们还呼吁更好的“决策卫生”，比如为群体决策指定一名观察员，以防止共同的偏见和嘈杂的判断。例如，他们可以确保团队中的参与者在作为一个整体做决策之前达成独立的评估。

Another solution is to dispense with people altogether. Statistical models, pre-determined rules and algorithms in many cases are more accurate than human judgment. The authors welcome artificial intelligence to make many decisions in society, but acknowledge that people are predisposed to resisting their answers, for lack of the personal, emotional quality in decision-making-even if it leads to inferior, or at least variable decisions.

另一个解决办法是完全不用人。统计模型、预先确定的规则和算法在很多情况下比人类的判断更准确。作者拥抱人工智能在社会上做出许多决定，但也承认，人们倾向于抵制他们的答案。因为人工智能在做决定时缺乏个人的、情感的质量——即使它导致劣质，或者至少是可变的决定。

The trio speaks with credibility. Mr Kahneman is a Nobel laureate whose ideas on bias in human reasoning have reshaped economics and society ; Mr Sunstein is a polymath scholar at Harvar and occasional government official putting his ideas into policy ;Mr Sibony is a former McKinsey partner who teaches decision science at a French business school.Yet despite the book's title, the authors struggled to extract the signal from the noise, so to speak, needing som 400 pages to make their case. A tighter argument would have enhanced the idea they present.

这三人的讲话具有说服力。Kahneman教授是一位诺贝尔奖得主，他关于人类推理中的偏见的观点重塑了经济学和社会；Sunstein先生是哈佛大学博学多才的学者，偶尔也会成为政府官员，将自己的想法付诸实践；Sibony曾是麦肯锡的合伙人，现在在法国的一所商学院教授决策科学。然而，尽管书名如此，作者们还是努力从噪音中提取出信号，也就是说，他们需要400页的篇幅来证明自己的观点。一个更严密的论证会加强他们所提出的观点的可信度。