替代倾向 / Surrogation

「释义」

替代倾向是在商业实践中发现的一种心理现象。

在绩效评估中，替代倾向是“管理者倾向于忽略绩效指标所代表的战略结构，并将其视为感兴趣的结构”。即用指标替代战略的心理倾向。

日常替代倾向的例子是负责提高客户满意度的经理，认为客户满意度调查分数实际上就是客户满意度。

「应用场景」

当然，我们都知道指标本身在某种程度上存在缺陷。在商业中，我们通常会期望指标能将一些无形的深层目标具象化，但几乎总是事与愿违。绩效管理系统中全是不能完美替代期望结果的指标。

Of course, we all know that metrics are inherently imperfect at some level. In business the intent behind metrics is usually to capture some underlying intangible goal—and they almost always fail to do this as well as we would like. Your performance management system is full of metrics that are flawed proxies for what you care about.

如果指标和战略不一致，替代倾向的危害性会更大，而且不一致的地方越多，潜在的危害就越大。假如公司用非常精确的质量标准（如滚珠轴承直径必须为10毫米，正负误差0.0001毫米），评判生产经理是否达成“制作高质量产品”的战略目标，替代倾向可能还不是问题。但若评判是否成功完成目标的指标是客户退货的次数，生产经理就可能自创一些方法，避免退货。举例来说，他们可能直接与客户的采购部门联系，提出由自己来处理所有产品问题，这样退货就会被记录成返工。经理还可能想要赌一把，放低可接受（甚至安全）的质量标准。他们知道，质量降低会增加退货的可能性，但也可能压根不会遭到退货。此外，如果单一标准在更广泛范围内得到应用，比如对负责同一复杂产品，但不同元件制造的多名经理都使用单一评估标准，那么替代倾向会有更大影响，造成更大伤害。

Surrogation is especially harmful when the metric and the strategy are poorly aligned. The greater the mismatch, the larger the potential damage. When a production manager’s success at achieving the strategic objective “make high-quality products” is measured by using very precise quality standards (such as “ball bearings must be 10 millimeters in diameter, plus or minus 0.0001 millimeters”), surrogation might not be a problem. However, if success at the objective is measured by the number of customer returns, the production manager might find creative ways to avoid returns. For example, he or she might connect directly with the purchasing departments of clientele, offering to personally handle any product concerns so that returns are registered as rework rather than returns. Or the manager might be willing to gamble a bit, pushing beyond acceptable (or even safe) quality standards, knowing that while the lower quality will increase the likelihood of a return, it may not actually trigger one. Furthermore, when a single metric is used more widely—for example, to gauge the performance of multiple managers overseeing various components of a complex product—surrogation can have a far bigger impact and do much greater harm.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2019年9月刊《别让指标毁了你的公司》

迈克尔·哈里斯（Michael Harris）  比尔·泰勒（Bill Tayler）丨文

马冰仑 丨编辑