经济学顶刊The Quarterly Journal of Economics （季刊）2023年第1期

The Quarterly Journal of Economics （季刊）2023年第1期

Volume 138, Issue 1, February 2023ARTICLES

 

 

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1.When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering? 

何时调整聚类的标准误差?

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W Imbens, Jeffrey M Wooldridge

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac038

Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways but not others, for example, by state but not by gender, and in observational studies but not in completely randomized experiments? (ii) Is the clustered variance estimator valid if we observe a large fraction of the clusters in the population? (iii) In what settings does the choice of whether and how to cluster make a difference? We address these and other questions using a novel framework for clustered inference on average treatment effects. In addition to the common sampling component, the new framework incorporates a design component that accounts for the variability induced on the estimator by the treatment assignment mechanism. We show that, when the number of clusters in the sample is a nonnegligible fraction of the number of clusters in the population, conventional clustered standard errors can be severely inflated, and propose new variance estimators that correct for this bias.

聚类标准误差是由地理等因素定义的聚类，在经济学和许多其他学科的实证研究中广泛存在。在形式上，聚类标准误差调整了由数据生成过程中使用不可观测的聚类级组件对结果变量进行抽样所引起的相关性。然而，聚类的标准计量经济学框架留下了一些重要的问题没有得到回答:(i)为什么我们会以某些方式调整聚类的标准误差，而不是其他方式，例如，按州而不是按性别调整，在观察性研究中而不是在完全随机的实验中调整?(ii)如果我们观察到总体中很大一部分的聚类，聚类方差估计是否有效?(iii)在什么环境下，是否聚类和如何聚类的选择会产生影响?我们解决这些和其他问题使用一个新的框架聚类推断平均治疗效果。除了常见的抽样成分外，新框架还纳入了一个设计成分，该成分考虑了处理分配机制对估计器产生的可变性。我们表明，当样本中的聚类数量是总体中聚类数量的不可忽略的一部分时，传统的聚类标准误差可能会严重膨胀，并提出新的方差估计，以纠正这一偏差。

 

 

 

2.The Evolution of Access to Public Accommodations in the United States

美国公共设施的演变

Lisa D Cook, Maggie E C Jones, Trevon D Logan, David Rosé

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac035

The economic analysis of racial discrimination in public accommodations is remarkably limited. To study this issue, we construct a national data set of nondiscriminatory establishments from the Negro Motorist Green Books, a travel guide published from 1936 to 1966 to aid Black Americans in finding nondiscriminatory retail and service establishments. We document patterns in the geographic spread and evolution of Green Book establishments, as well as the correlates of Green Book presence. We find that economic and social measures, as well as state laws relating to racial discrimination and antidiscrimination, were correlated with the provision of nondiscriminatory services. We then use the Green Book data to test whether market conditions and white consumer discrimination led businesses to bar Black customers prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. We use plausibly exogenous variation from white World War II casualties and Black migration patterns to isolate the effect of a change in the racial composition of consumers on the growth of nondiscriminatory businesses. We find that the share of nondiscriminatory establishments grew faster in locations with larger increases in the share of the Black population, but the magnitudes were small. These results highlight the importance of federal legislation in ending racial discrimination in public accommodations.

关于公共设施中种族歧视的经济分析非常有限。为了研究这一问题，我们从1936年至1966年出版的旅行指南《黑人司机绿皮书》(Negro Motorist Green Books)中构建了一个关于非歧视机构的全国数据集，该数据集帮助美国黑人寻找非歧视的零售和服务机构。我们记录了绿皮书机构的地理传播和演变模式，以及绿皮书存在的相关性。我们发现，经济和社会措施，以及与种族歧视和反歧视有关的州法律，与提供非歧视性服务相关。然后，我们使用《绿皮书》的数据来测试在1964年《民权法案》(Civil Rights Act of 1964)之前，市场状况和白人消费者歧视是否导致企业禁止黑人客户。我们利用白人二战伤亡人数和黑人移民模式的看似合理的外生变异，来隔离消费者种族构成变化对非歧视企业增长的影响。我们发现，在黑人人口比例增长较大的地点，非歧视机构的比例增长较快，但幅度较小。这些结果突出了联邦立法在结束公共设施中的种族歧视方面的重要性。

 

 

 

3.Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record

增加对有犯罪记录的工人的需求

Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, Mitchell Hoffman

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac029

We experimentally test several approaches to increasing the demand for workers with a criminal record on a nationwide staffing platform by addressing potential downside risk and productivity concerns. The staffing platform asked hiring managers to make a series of hypothetical hiring decisions that affected whether workers with a criminal record could accept their jobs in the future. We find that 39% of businesses in our sample are willing to work with individuals with a criminal record at baseline, which rises to over 50% when businesses are offered crime and safety insurance, a single performance review, or a limited background check covering just the past year. Wage subsidies can achieve similar increases but at a substantially higher cost. Based on our findings, the staffing platform relaxed the criminal background check requirement and offered crime and safety insurance to interested businesses.

我们实验测试了几种方法，通过解决潜在的下行风险和生产力问题，增加对全国人员配置平台上有犯罪记录的工人的需求。该人员配置平台要求招聘经理做出一系列假设的招聘决定，这些决定会影响有犯罪记录的工人未来是否能接受他们的工作。我们发现，在我们的样本中，39%的企业愿意在基线上与有犯罪记录的个人合作，当企业获得犯罪和安全保险、一次绩效审查或仅覆盖过去一年的有限背景调查时，这一比例上升到50%以上。工资补贴可以实现类似的增长，但成本要高得多。根据我们的发现，人员配置平台放松了犯罪背景检查要求，并向感兴趣的企业提供犯罪和安全保险。

 

 

 

4.Improving Workplace Climate in Large Corporations: A Clustered Randomized Intervention

改善大公司的工作环境:一项聚类的随机干预

Sule Alan, Gozde Corekcioglu, Matthias Sutter

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac034

We evaluate the impact of a training program aimed at improving the relational atmosphere in the workplace. The program encourages prosocial behavior and the use of professional language, focusing primarily on leaders’ behavior and leader-subordinate interactions. We implement this program using a clustered randomized design involving over 3,000 headquarters employees of 20 large corporations in Turkey. We evaluate the program with respect to employee separation, pro- and antisocial behavior, the prevalence of support networks, and perceived workplace climate. We find that treated firms have a lower likelihood of employee separation at the leadership level, fewer employees lacking professional and personal help, and denser, less segregated support networks. We also find that employees in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, and report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial environment. The program’s success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. Treated subordinates report higher professionalism and empathy in their leaders and are more likely to consider their leaders as professional support providers.

我们评估旨在改善工作场所关系氛围的培训项目的影响。该项目鼓励亲社会行为和专业语言的使用，主要集中在领导的行为和领导-下属的互动。我们采用了随机聚类设计，涉及土耳其20家大公司的3000多名总部员工。我们从员工离职、亲社会和反社会行为、支持网络的流行程度和感知的工作环境等方面评估该项目。我们发现，接受治疗的公司在领导层层面的员工离职可能性更低，缺乏专业和个人帮助的员工更少，支持网络更密集，隔离程度更低。我们还发现，在有特殊待遇的公司中，员工从事有毒竞争的倾向较低，相互之间表现出更高的互惠性，并报告更高的工作满意度和更大学的环境。该项目在改善领导-下属关系方面的成功，可能是解释这些结果的机制。被对待的下属报告说，他们的领导具有更高的专业性和同理心，更有可能将领导视为专业的支持提供者。

 

 

 

5.Asset Specificity of Nonfinancial Firms

非金融企业的资产专用性

Amir Kermani, Yueran Ma

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac030

We develop a new data set to study asset specificity among nonfinancial firms. Our data cover the liquidation values of each category of assets on firms’ balance sheets and provides information across major industries. First, we find that nonfinancial firms have high asset specificity. For example, the liquidation value of fixed assets is 35% of the net book value in the average industry. Second, we analyze the determinants of asset specificity and document that assets’ physical attributes (e.g., mobility, durability, and customization) play a crucial role. Third, we investigate several implications. Consistent with theories of investment irreversibility, high asset specificity is associated with less disinvestment and stronger effects of uncertainty on investment activities. We also find that the increasing prevalence of intangible assets has not significantly reduced firms’ liquidation values.

我们开发了一个新的数据集来研究非金融公司的资产专用性。我们的数据涵盖了企业资产负债表上每一类资产的清算价值，并提供了主要行业的信息。首先，我们发现非金融企业具有较高的资产专用性。例如，行业平均固定资产的清算价值为账面净值的35%。其次，我们分析了资产专用性的决定因素，并证明资产的物理属性(如移动性、持久性和定制性)发挥了至关重要的作用。第三，我们调查了几个含义。与投资不可逆性理论一致，高资产专用性与较少的撤资相关，不确定性对投资活动的影响更强。我们还发现，无形资产的日益普及并没有显著降低企业的清算价值。

 

 

6.Memory and Probability

记忆与概率

Pedro Bordalo, John J Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Y Kwon, Andrei Shleifer

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac031

In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. We model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. We show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued versus neglect of noncued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, conjunction and disjunction fallacies, and over- versus underreaction to information in different situations. The model yields several new predictions, for which we find strong experimental support.

在许多经济决策中，人们通过回忆经验来估计概率，比如风险发生的可能性，或者求职者将成为一个富有成效的员工的可能性。我们基于选择性回忆的两个既定规律:相似性和干扰，来模拟这一过程。我们表明，假设的相似性结构和描述它的方式(而不仅仅是它的客观概率)塑造了对经验的回忆，从而形成了概率评估。该模型解释并协调了各种经验发现，例如，当有线索时对不太可能发生的事件的高估，而对无线索事件的忽视，可用性启发式，代表性启发式，连接和分离谬误，以及在不同情况下对信息的过度反应和不足反应。该模型产生了几个新的预测，我们找到了强有力的实验支持。

 

 

 

7.Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

经济代理人是不完美的问题解决者

Cosmin Ilut, Rosen Valchev

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac027

We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.

我们开发了一个新的有限理性模型的不完美推理，作为自动(系统1)和分析(系统2)思维之间的交互。在此过程中，我们使用一个关于未知最优政策函数的心理信息获取的结构性、约束的最优经济框架，正式确立了认知心理学的经验共识。一个关键的结果是，当面对世界上通常(不寻常)的状态时，代理人的推理更少(更多)，产生了依赖于状态和历史的行为。我们的应用是一个标准的不完全市场模型，没有先验的行为偏差。行动和信念的遍历分布以内生学习陷阱为特征，在这种情况下，局部稳定的状态动态会生成熟悉的状态空间区域，在该区域内，行为似乎遵循基于记忆的启发式。这导致了具有许多经验上令人满意的特性的内生行为偏差:即使对不受约束的代理人来说，边际消费倾向也很高，勉强糊口的地位也更频繁和持久，财富不平等也比标准模型中更严重。

 

 

 

8.The Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool in Boston

波士顿普及学前教育的长期影响

Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Parag A Pathak, Christopher R Walters

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac036

We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as SAT test taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, SAT-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. Our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non–test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.

我们使用录取彩票来估计波士顿大规模公立幼儿园对上大学、大学准备、标准化考试分数和行为结果的影响。学前教育入学率提高了大学出勤率、SAT考试出勤率和高中毕业率。学前教育还减少了包括青少年监禁在内的高中纪律措施，但对州成绩测试分数没有明显影响。对分组的分析表明，男孩对大学入学、sat考试和纪律结果的影响比女孩大。我们的发现说明了大规模现代公立学前教育的可能性，并强调了在评估教育项目的有效性时，衡量长期和非考试分数结果的重要性。

 

 

 

9.Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing

煽动性的政治运动和警务中的种族偏见

Pauline Grosjean, Federico Masera, Hasin Yousaf

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac037

Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015–2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.

政治集会能影响执法人员对少数种族的行为吗?利用3500万个交通站点的数据，我们显示，在特朗普2015-2016年竞选期间的一次集会后，被拦下的司机是黑人的概率增加了5.74%。对黑人司机来说，这种影响是直接的，在集会后持续60天，司机行为的变化并不能证明这一点。在那些估计种族偏见在基线上较高的执法人员中，在当今种族仇恨指标得分较高的地区，在吉姆·克劳(Jim Crow)时代经历了更多种族暴力的地区，以及在前蓄奴县，这种影响要大得多。在特朗普的演讲中，无论是明示还是含蓄地提到种族问题，都加剧了种族偏见较高的官员在特朗普集会上的影响。

 

 

 

10.New Deal, New Patriots: How 1930s Government Spending Boosted Patriotism During World War II

新政，新爱国者:20世纪30年代政府支出如何在二战期间促进爱国主义

Bruno Caprettini, Hans-Joachim Voth

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac028

We demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public-good provision. After 1933, the New Deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the U.S. federal government’s role. Those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during World War II: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more, and, as soldiers, won more medals. This pattern was new—World War I volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. We match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level. Using geographical variation, we exploit two instruments to suggest that the effect is causal: droughts and congressional committee representation predict more New Deal agricultural support, as well as bond buying, volunteering, and medals.

我们展示了爱国主义和提供公共产品之间的重要互补性。1933年之后，“新政”使美国联邦政府的作用得到了前所未有的扩大。那些从社会支出中受益的人在二战期间明显更爱国:他们购买了更多的战争债券，更多的志愿服务，作为士兵，他们赢得了更多的奖牌。这种模式是新的——第一次世界大战的志愿活动并没有表现出同样的爱国主义地理位置。我们将兵役记录与1940年的人口普查相匹配，以表明这种模式在个人层面上是成立的。利用地理差异，我们利用了两种工具来表明这种影响是因果关系:干旱和国会委员会代表预测了更多的新政农业支持，以及债券购买、志愿服务和奖章。

 

 

 

11.Top Wealth in America: New Estimates Under Heterogeneous Returns

美国顶级财富:异质性回报下的新估计

Matthew Smith, Owen Zidar, Eric Zwick

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac033

This article uses administrative tax data to estimate top wealth in the United States. We assemble new data that link people to their sources of capital income and develop new methods to estimate the degree of return heterogeneity within asset classes. Disaggregated fixed-income data reveal that rich individuals earn much more of their interest income in higher-yielding forms and have much greater exposure to credit risk. Consequently, in recent years, the interest rate on fixed income at the top is approximately 3.5 times higher than the average. We value the population of U.S. firms using firm-level characteristics and apportion this wealth using firm-owner links. We combine this new data on fixed income and pass-through business returns with refined estimates of C-corporation equity, housing, and pension wealth to deliver new capitalized wealth estimates that build upon the methods of Saez and Zucman (2016a). From 1989 to 2016, the top 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% wealth shares increased by 6.6, 4.6, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, to 33.7%, 15.7%, and 7.1%. Overall, although we estimate a large degree of return heterogeneity, accounting for this heterogeneity does not change the fundamental story for top wealth shares and their growth—wealth inequality is high and has risen substantially over recent decades.

本文使用行政税收数据来估计美国的顶级财富。我们收集了新的数据，将人们与其资本收入来源联系起来，并开发了新的方法来估计资产类别内部的回报异质性程度。分类的固定收入数据显示，富人以更高收益的形式赚取更多的利息收入，并面临更大的信贷风险。因此，近年来，顶层固定收入的利率约为平均利率的3.5倍。我们利用公司层面的特征来评估美国公司的数量，并利用公司与所有者的联系来分配这些财富。我们将固定收入和传递业务回报的新数据与对c -公司股权、住房和养老金财富的精细化估计结合起来，以提供基于Saez和Zucman (2016a)方法的新的资本化财富估计。1989—2016年，前1%、0.1%和0.01%财富份额分别增长6.6、4.6和2.9个百分点，达到33.7%、15.7%和7.1%。总体而言，尽管我们估计了很大程度的回报异质性，但考虑到这种异质性并没有改变顶级财富份额及其增长的基本情况——财富不平等程度很高，而且在最近几十年里大幅上升。

 

 

 

12.Corruption in Customs

海关腐败

Cyril Chalendard, Ana M Fernandes, Gael Raballand, Bob Rijkers

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac032

This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that rejuvenated systemic corruption. Tax revenue losses associated with the corruption scheme are approximately 3% of total taxes collected and are highly concentrated among a select few inspectors and brokers.

这篇文章提出了一种新的方法来检测海关腐败，并将其应用于马达加斯加的主要港口。通过测量官方规定的随机分配的偏差，可以确定是否有人为地将进口报关单分配给检查员。不符合规定的申报更有逃税的风险，但被检查人员认为是欺诈的可能性较小，因为检查人员也能更快地清除申报。在一项干预中，检查员的任务被委托给第三方，这验证了我们的做法，但也引发了一种新的操纵行为，使系统性腐败重新抬头。与腐败计划有关的税收损失约占征收的税收总额的3%，并高度集中在少数检查员和经纪人身上。