经济学权威期刊The Economic journal 2023年第2期

The Economic journal 2023年第2期

 

 

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1.Market Participation and Moral Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence from Greenland

市场参与与道德决策:来自格陵兰岛的实验证据

Gustav Agneman, Esther Chevrot-Bianco

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac069

The relationship between market participation and moral values is the object of a long-lasting debate in economics, yet field evidence is mainly based on cross-cultural studies. We conduct rule-breaking experiments in 13 villages across Greenland (N = 543), where stark contrasts in market participation within villages allow us to examine the relationship between market participation and moral decision-making, holding village-level factors constant. First, we document a robust positive association between market participation and moral behaviour towards anonymous others. Second, market-integrated participants display universalism in moral decision-making, whereas non-market participants make more moral decisions towards co-villagers. A battery of robustness tests confirms that the behavioural differences between market and non-market participants are not driven by socioeconomic variables, childhood background, cultural identities, kinship structure, global connectedness and exposure to religious and political institutions.

市场参与与道德价值之间的关系是经济学长期争论的对象，而现场证据主要基于跨文化研究。我们在格陵兰岛的13个村庄(N = 543)进行了打破规则的实验，在这些实验中，村庄内部的市场参与形成了鲜明的对比，使我们能够在保持村级因素不变的情况下，考察市场参与和道德决策之间的关系。首先，我们证明了市场参与与对待匿名者的道德行为之间存在着稳健的正相关关系。第二，市场整合参与者在道德决策上表现出普遍主义，而非市场参与者对同乡的道德决策更多。一系列稳健性检验证实，市场参与者和非市场参与者之间的行为差异不是由社会经济变量、童年背景、文化身份、亲属关系结构、全球联系以及对宗教和政治机构的接触所驱动的。

 

 

2.Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of Education: Evidence from School Construction in Indonesia

教育的长期和代际影响:来自印度尼西亚学校建设的证据

Richard Akresh, Daniel Halim, Marieke Kleemans

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac058

We study long-term and intergenerational effects of the 1970s Indonesian school construction program. Exploiting variation across birth cohorts and districts in the number of schools built suggests that 43 years later men are more likely to work formally, outside agriculture, and migrate, and that men and women have better marriage market outcomes. Households with exposed women have higher living standards and pay more taxes. The mother's program exposure leads to increased schooling for her children, with larger effects in secondary and tertiary education. Cost-benefit analyses indicate that school construction leads to higher tax revenues and improved living standards, offsetting construction costs within 18–54 years.

我们研究了20世纪70年代印尼学校建设项目的长期和代际影响。通过对不同出生人群和地区学校数量的差异进行分析，我们发现，43年后，男性更有可能在农业以外的领域正式工作并移民，而且男性和女性在婚姻市场上会有更好的结果。女性暴露在外的家庭生活水平更高，纳税也更多。母亲的项目曝光导致她的孩子接受更多的教育，对中学和大学教育有更大的影响。成本效益分析表明，学校建设带来了更高的税收收入和生活水平的提高，在18-54年内抵消了建设成本。

 

 

3.Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes

投资者情绪、主权债务错误定价和经济结果

Ramzy Al-Amine, Tim Willems

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac067

We find that countries able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (e.g., because investors are bullish regarding the country’s future) are more likely to develop medium-term difficulties. We establish this by regressing spreads on fundamentals. Subsequently deploying first-stage residuals in a second-stage regression suggests that an optimistic sentiment reduces growth in the medium term while increasing odds of fiscal crises. Incorporating information from our mispricing estimate reduces the root-mean-square error of out-of-sample growth forecasts by 15%. This supports theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle and suggests that countries should not solely rely on spreads when setting fiscal policy.

我们发现，在基本面(例如，因为投资者看好该国的未来)看来，能够以较低利差借款的国家更有可能出现中期困难。我们通过回归基本面利差来确定这一点。随后在第二阶段回归中部署第一阶段残差表明，乐观情绪降低了中期增长，同时增加了财政危机的可能性。结合错误定价估计的信息，样本外增长预测的均方根误差降低了15%。这支持了情绪影响商业周期的理论，并表明各国在制定财政政策时不应仅仅依赖利差。

 

 

4.Finance and Green Growth

金融与绿色增长

Ralph De Haas, Alexander Popov

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac081

We study how countries’ financial structure affects their transition to low-carbon growth. Using global industry-level data, we document that carbon-intensive industries reduce emissions faster in economies with deeper stock markets. The main channel underpinning this stylised fact is that stock markets facilitate green innovation in carbon-intensive sectors, resulting in lower carbon emissions per unit of output. More tentative evidence indicates that stock markets also help to reallocate investment towards more energy-efficient sectors. Cross-border spillovers are limited: less than 5% of these industry-level reductions in domestic emissions are offset by carbon embedded in imports. A firm-level analysis of an exogenous shock to the cost of equity in Belgium confirms our findings.

我们研究了各国的金融结构如何影响其向低碳增长转型。利用全球行业层面的数据，我们发现，在股市更深的经济体中，碳密集型行业减少排放的速度更快。支撑这一程式化事实的主要渠道是，股市促进了碳密集型行业的绿色创新，从而降低了单位产出的碳排放。更多的初步证据表明，股市也有助于将投资重新分配到更节能的部门。跨境溢出效应是有限的:只有不到5%的行业层面的国内排放减少被进口中的碳抵消。对比利时股权成本的外生冲击的公司层面分析证实了我们的发现。

 

 

5.Technology-Neutral Versus Technology-Specific Procurement 

技术中性与技术特定采购

Natalia Fabra, Juan-Pablo Montero

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac075

An imperfectly informed regulator needs to procure multiple units of some good (e.g., green energy, market liquidity, pollution reduction, land conservation) that can be produced with heterogeneous technologies at various costs. How should she optimally procure these units? Should she run technology-specific or technology-neutral auctions? Should she allow for partial separation across technologies? Should she instead post separate prices for each technology? What are the trade-offs involved? We find that one size does not fit all: the preferred instrument depends on the costs of the available technologies, their degree of substitutability, the extent of information asymmetry and the costs of public funds. We illustrate the use of our theory for policy analysis with an ex ante evaluation of Spain’s recent renewable auction.

一个不完全知情的监管机构需要采购多个单位的某种商品(如绿色能源、市场流动性、减少污染、保护土地)，这些商品可以用不同的技术以不同的成本生产。她应该如何以最佳方式获得这些单位?她应该进行技术特定的还是技术中立的拍卖?她应该允许跨技术的部分分离吗?她应该为每种技术单独公布价格吗?其中涉及哪些权衡?我们发现，一种方法并不适用于所有的工具:首选工具取决于可用技术的成本、它们的可替代性程度、信息不对称的程度和公共资金的成本。我们通过对西班牙最近的可再生能源拍卖的事前评估来说明我们的理论在政策分析中的使用。

 

 

6.The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity: A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations

税收变化对经济活动的影响:对频繁预期的叙述方法

Sandra García-Uribe

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac064

This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect.

本文通过美国媒体发布税收消息，研究税收变动预期对经济活动的影响。我通过利用电视新闻的内容提供了一种预期的措施。这种信息通常比国内生产总值的标准衡量方法流动得更快，因此我提出了一个混合频率动态因素模型，以估计经济活动的潜在因素和预期税收冲击对其的影响。我发现，一个月前的减税预期显著刺激当前的经济活动，而增税预期则产生相反的效果。

 

 

7.Jumping the Gun: How Dictators Got Ahead of Their Subjects 

抢先行动:独裁者如何超越他们的臣民

Jacob Gerner Hariri, Asger Mose Wingender

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac073

Economic modernisation is widely seen as a path to democracy, but the technological progress that drives modernisation also provides rulers with new means of repression. We collect data on the international diffusion of 29 repressive military technologies, and demonstrate that such technologies spread faster from Western Europe and the United States than economic development. Moreover, in a panel of all independent countries in the period 1820–2010, we show that the rapid diffusion of repressive technologies has impeded democratisation around the world, by allowing autocratic rulers to suppress popular resistance against their regimes.

推动现代化的进步也为统治者提供了新的镇压手段。我们收集了29种压制性军事技术在国际上传播的数据，并证明这些技术从西欧和美国传播的速度比经济发展的速度更快。此外，在对1820年至2010年期间所有独立国家的调查中，我们展示了压制性技术的迅速扩散阻碍了世界各地的民主化进程，因为专制统治者得以压制民众对其政权的反抗。

 

 

8.Strategic Complexity and the Value of Thinking

战略的复杂性和思考的价值

David Gill, Victoria Prowse

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac070

We leverage response-time data from repeated strategic interactions to measure the strategic complexity of a situation by how long people think on average when they face that situation (where we categorise situations according to characteristics of play in the previous round). We find that strategic complexity varies significantly across situations, and we find considerable heterogeneity in how responsive subjects’ thinking times are to complexity. We also study how variation in response times at the individual level affects success: when a subject thinks for longer than she would normally do in a particular situation, she wins less frequently and earns less.

我们利用来自反复战略互动的反应时间数据，通过人们在面对这种情况时平均思考多长时间来衡量这种情况的战略复杂性(在这种情况下，我们根据前一轮的玩法特征对情况进行分类)。我们发现，战略复杂性在不同情况下有显著差异，我们发现，在受试者对复杂性的反应时间上，我们发现了相当大的异质性。我们还研究了个体层面上反应时间的变化如何影响成功:当受试者在特定情况下比正常情况下思考的时间长时，她获胜的频率就会降低，赚的钱也会减少。

 

 

9.Gone with the wind: The consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan

《飘》:美国无人机袭击巴基斯坦的后果

Rafat Mahmood, Michael Jetter

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac049

Employing day-to-day wind conditions as an identification strategy, we explore the consequences of the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan between 2006 and 2016. Results suggest that drone strikes encourage terrorism over the upcoming days and weeks, causing up to 19% of all terror attacks with more than 3,000 terror deaths in Pakistan during that period. Studying a leading Pakistani newspaper, we identify a polarised response to drone strikes as negative emotions and anger, but also positive emotions, in drone-related articles increase. Finally, anti-US protests and online searches exhibiting radical Islamist concepts increase as a consequence of drone strikes.

利用日常的风力条件作为识别策略，我们探讨了2006年至2016年期间在巴基斯坦进行的420次美国无人机袭击的后果。结果显示，无人机袭击在接下来的几天和几周内助长了恐怖主义，造成了巴基斯坦所有恐怖袭击的19%，超过3000人死于恐怖袭击。通过研究巴基斯坦的一份主要报纸，我们发现，在与无人机有关的文章中，人们对无人机袭击的两极反应是负面情绪和愤怒，但也有积极情绪。最后，无人机袭击增加了反美抗议活动和显示激进伊斯兰主义概念的在线搜索。

 

 

10.Women Leaving the Playpen: the Emancipating Role of Female Suffrage 

妇女离开围栏:妇女选举权的解放作用

Michaela Slotwinski, Alois Stutzer

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac077

We study how political empowerment affected women’s emancipation as reflected in their life choices. The staggered introduction of female suffrage in Swiss states allows us to exploit the variation in the age at which women were exposed to the right to vote to estimate the differences in life choices between women who were socialised in a world with politically empowered women and those who were socialised before. Our empirical findings document that early exposure to female suffrage increased female labour force participation, weakened marital bonds and motivated human capital investment.

我们研究政治赋权如何影响妇女解放，反映在她们的生活选择中。瑞士各州女性选举权的交错引入使我们能够利用女性获得投票权的年龄差异，来估计在一个拥有政治权力的女性的世界里被社会化的女性与在此之前被社会化的女性在生活选择上的差异。我们的实证结果证明，早期接触女性投票权增加了女性劳动力参与率，削弱了婚姻纽带，并激励了人力资本投资。

 

 

11.Clean Energy Access: Gender Disparity, Health and Labour Supply

清洁能源获取:性别差距、健康和劳动力供应

Anjali P Verma, Imelda

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac057

Women bear a disproportionate share of the health and time burden associated with lack of access to modern energy. We study the impact of clean energy access on adult health and labour supply outcomes by exploiting a nationwide rollout of a clean cooking fuel program in Indonesia. We find that access to clean cooking fuel led to an improvement in women’s health and an increase in their work hours. We also find an increase in men’s work hours and in their propensity to have an additional job, primarily in those households where women accrued the largest program benefits.

由于无法获得现代能源，妇女承担了不成比例的健康和时间负担。我们通过利用印度尼西亚在全国范围内推出清洁烹饪燃料计划，研究清洁能源获取对成人健康和劳动力供应结果的影响。我们发现，获得清洁烹饪燃料改善了妇女的健康，增加了她们的工作时间。我们还发现，男性的工作时间和他们从事额外工作的倾向有所增加，主要是在妇女获得最大项目福利的家庭中。

 

 

12.Teaching Norms: Direct Evidence of Parental Transmission 

教学规范:父母传播的直接证据

Thijs Brouwer, Fabio Galeotti, Marie Claire Villeval

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac074

We examine the educative role played by parents in social norm transmission. Using a field experiment, we study whether parents enforce and comply more with norms when their children are present compared to when they are not. We compare similar parents when or after they drop off or pick up their children at school. We find that parents accompanying children, in contrast to parents alone, are more likely to punish norm violators and to provide help to strangers when there is no violation. They also tend to substitute more direct punishment with withholding help as a means of indirect punishment.

我们研究了父母在社会规范传播中所扮演的教育角色。通过实地实验，我们研究了父母在孩子在场时是否比不在场时更遵守和执行规范。我们比较相似的父母在接送孩子上学的时候或之后。我们发现，与独自陪伴相比，陪伴子女的父母更有可能惩罚违反规范的人，并在没有违反规范的情况下向陌生人提供帮助。他们还倾向于用扣留帮助来代替更直接的惩罚，作为一种间接的惩罚手段。

 

 

13.The Long-Term Effects of Student Absence: Evidence from Sweden

学生缺勤的长期影响:来自瑞典的证据 

Sarah Cattan, Daniel A Kamhöfer, Martin Karlsson, Therese Nilsson

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac078

Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal effect of school absence on long-run outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We find that elementary school absence significantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, final educational attainment and labour income throughout the life cycle. The findings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses, which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labour market performance.

尽管提高入学率在政策领域的重要性相对没有争议，但很少有证据表明缺课对长期结果的因果影响。我们通过结合20世纪30年代出生的瑞典人的历史和行政记录来解决这个问题。我们发现，小学缺勤显著降低了整个生命周期的同期学业表现、最终教育成就和劳动收入。这些发现与人力资本形成的一个动态模型相一致，即缺勤会导致小的即时学习损失，随着时间的推移，累积成更大的人力资本损失，并导致劳动力市场表现更差。