Could the world really avoid a recession?

Markets are giddy, but there is a long way to go

giddy：令人轻飘飘的；眩晕的

Last year markets had a terrible time. So far 2023 looks different. Many indices, including the Euro Stoxx 600, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and a broad measure of emerging-market share prices, have seen their best start to the year in decades. America’s s&p 500 is up by 5%. Since reaching its peak in October, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has fallen by 7%, a sign that fear about the global economy is ebbing. Even bitcoin has had a good year. Not long ago it felt as though a global recession was nailed on. Now optimism is re-emerging.

去年市场经历了一段糟糕的时期。到目前为止，2023 年看起来不同。许多指数，包括欧洲斯托克 600 指数、香港恒生指数和衡量新兴市场股价的一个广泛指标，都出现了数十年来最好的开局。美国标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 5%。自 10 月份达到顶峰以来，美元的贸易加权价值已经下跌了 7%，这表明对全球经济的担忧正在消退。就连比特币也有了好年景。就在不久前，全球经济衰退似乎已经板上钉钉。现在乐观情绪正在重新出现。

ebb：When the sea or tide ebbs, it moves away from the coast and falls to a lower level. 落潮，退潮

be nailed on：板上钉钉；命中注定

“Hello lower gas prices, bye-bye recession,” cheered analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, on January 18th, in a report on the euro zone. Nomura, a bank, has revised its forecast of Britain’s forthcoming recession “to something less pernicious than what we originally expected”. Citigroup, another bank, said that “the probability of a full-blown global recession, in which growth in many countries turns down in tandem, is now roughly 30% in contrast with the 50% assessment that we maintained through the second half of last year.” These are crumbs: the world economy is weaker than at any point since the lockdowns of 2020. But investors will eat anything.

1 月 18 日，在一份关于欧元区的报告中，摩根大通银行的分析师们欢呼道：“你好，油价下跌，经济衰退拜拜。”野村银行已经将其对英国即将到来的经济衰退的预测修正为“比我们最初预期的危害要小”。另一家银行花旗集团（Citigroup）表示：“全球经济衰退全面爆发的可能性（许多国家的增长率同时下降）现在大约为30%，（与之形成对比的是）我们在去年下半年一直保持的50%的估计。“这些是面包屑：世界经济比2020年封锁以来的任何时候都要疲软。但投资者什么都吃。

Forecasters are in part responding to real-time economic data. Despite talk of a global recession since at least last February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, these data have held up better than expected. Consider a weekly estimate of gdp from the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries which account for about 60% of global output. It is hardly booming, but in mid-January few countries were struggling. Widely watched “purchasing-manager index” measures of global output rose slightly in January, consistent with gdp growth of about 2%.

预测者在一定程度上是对实时经济数据做出反应。尽管至少自去年 2 月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，人们一直在谈论全球经济衰退，但这些数据的表现好于预期。考虑一下经合组织每周对 gdp 的估计，经合组织主要由富裕国家组成，占全球产出的 60%左右。它几乎没有蓬勃发展，但在一月中旬，几乎没有国家在苦苦挣扎（见表 1）。广受关注的衡量全球产出的“采购经理人指数”在一月份略有上升，与 gdp 增长 2%左右相一致。

Official numbers remain a mixed bag. Recent figures on American retail sales came in below expectations. Meanwhile, in Japan machinery orders were far weaker than forecast. Yet after reaching an all-time low in the summer, consumer confidence across the oecd has risen. Officials are due to publish their first estimate of America’s gdp growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 on January 26th. Most economists are expecting a decent number, though pandemic disruptions mean these figures will be less reliable than normal.

官方数据仍然好坏参半。最近美国零售业的数据低于预期。与此同时，日本的机械订单远低于预期。然而，在今年夏天达到历史最低点之后，经合组织各国的消费者信心已经有所回升。官员们将于 1 月 26 日公布他们对美国 2022 年第四季度 gdp 增长的首次估计。大多数经济学家预计会有一个不错的数字，尽管大流行的中断意味着这些数字将比正常情况下更不可靠。

a mixed bag：鱼龙混杂；好坏参办

Labour markets seem to be holding up, too. In some rich countries, including Austria and Denmark, joblessness is rising—a tell-tale sign that a recession is looming. Barely a day goes by without an announcement from another big technology firm that it is letting people go. Yet tech accounts for a small share of overall jobs, and in most countries unemployment remains low. Happily, employers across the oecd are expressing their falling demand for labour largely by withdrawing job adverts, rather than sacking people. We estimate that, since reaching an all-time high of more than 30m early last year, unfilled vacancies have fallen by about 10%. The number of people actually in a job has fallen by less than 1% from its peak.

劳动力市场似乎也在保持增长。在一些发达国家，包括奥地利和丹麦，失业率正在上升，这是经济衰退即将来临的一个明显迹象。几乎每天都有另一家大型科技公司宣布裁员。然而，科技行业只占整体就业岗位的一小部分，而且大多数国家的失业率仍然很低。令人高兴的是，经合组织的雇主们大多通过撤下招聘广告而不是裁员来表达他们对劳动力需求的下降。我们估计，自去年初达到 3000 多万的历史最高水平以来，未填补的空缺职位已经下降了大约 10%。实际从事某项工作的人数从高峰时期下降了不到 1%。

Investors pay attention to labour markets, but what they really care about right now is inflation. It is too soon to know if the threat has passed. In the rich world “core” inflation, a measure of underlying pressure, is still 5-6% year on year, far higher than central banks would like. The problem, though, is no longer getting worse. In America core inflation is dropping, as is the share of small firms which plan to raise prices. Another data set, from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, a data firm, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University, is a cross-country gauge of public inflation expectations. It also seems to be falling.

投资者关注劳动力市场，但他们现在真正关心的是通胀。现在判断威胁是否已经过去还为时过早。在发达国家，“核心”通货膨胀，一种潜在压力的衡量标准，仍然是每年 5-6%，远远高于中央银行所希望的。不过，问题并没有变得更糟。在美国，核心通货膨胀率正在下降，计划提价的小公司的份额也在下降。另一组数据来自克利夫兰联邦储备银行、数据公司 Morning Consult 和布兰代斯大学的 Raphael Schoenle 的研究人员，这是一个衡量公众通胀预期的跨国指标。它似乎也在下降。

Two factors explain why the global economy is holding up: energy prices and private-sector finances. Last year the cost of fuel in the rich world rose by well over 20%—and by 60% or more in parts of Europe. Economists expected prices to remain high in 2023, crushing energy-intensive sectors such as heavy industry. On both counts they were wrong. Helped by unseasonably warm weather, companies have proven unexpectedly flexible when it comes to dealing with high costs. In November German industrial gas consumption was 27% lower than normal, yet industrial production was only 0.5% down on the year before. And over the Christmas period European natural-gas prices have fallen by half to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine.

两个因素解释了全球经济为何能够保持坚挺：能源价格和私营部门的财务状况。去年，发达国家的燃料价格上涨了 20%以上，欧洲部分地区上涨了 60%甚至更多。经济学家预计，2023 年物价将维持高位，重工业等能源密集型行业将受到挤压。在这两点上，他们都错了。在反常的温暖天气的帮助下，企业在应对高成本方面表现出了出人意料的灵活性。11 月德国工业天然气消费量比正常水平低 27%，但工业生产仅比上年同期下降 0.5%。圣诞节期间，欧洲天然气价格下降了一半，降至俄罗斯入侵乌克兰前的水平。

The strength of private-sector finances has also made a difference. Our best guess is that families in the g7 are still sitting on “excess” savings—ie, those above and beyond what you would expect them to have accumulated in normal times—of around $3trn (or about 10% of annual consumer spending), accumulated via a combination of pandemic stimulus and lower outlays in 2020-21. As a result their spending today is resilient. They can weather higher prices and a higher cost of credit. Businesses, meanwhile, are still sitting on large cash piles. And few face large debt repayments right now: 600bn of dollar-denominated corporate debt will mature this year, compared with $900bn due in 2025.

私营部门的金融实力也起到了作用。我们最好的猜测是，七国集团的家庭仍然坐拥“超额”储蓄，即那些超出你预期的他们在正常时期积累的储蓄，大约 3 万亿美元（或约占年度消费支出的 10%），这些储蓄是通过 2020-21 年流行病刺激和较低支出的组合积累起来的。因此，他们今天的支出具有弹性。他们能够承受更高的价格和更高的信贷成本。与此同时，企业仍坐拥大量现金。现在几乎没有人面临巨额债务偿还：今年将有 6000 亿美元的美元计价企业债务到期，而 2025 年将有 9000 亿美元到期。

Weather：vt.经受住；使风化；侵蚀；使受风吹雨打

Can the data continue to beat expectations? There is some evidence, including in a recent paper by Goldman Sachs, a bank, that the heaviest drag on economic growth from tighter monetary policy occurs after about nine months. Global financial conditions started seriously tightening about nine months ago. If the theory holds, then before long the economy might be on surer footing again, even as higher rates start to eat away at inflation. China is another reason to be optimistic. They will ultimately raise demand for goods and services globally. Forecasters also expect the warm weather in much of Europe to continue.

数据能否继续超预期？有一些证据，包括高盛银行最近的一份报告，表明紧缩货币政策对经济增长的最大拖累发生在大约 9 个月之后。全球金融状况在大约 9 个月前开始严重收紧。如果这一理论成立，那么用不了多久，经济可能会再次站稳脚跟，即使更高的利率开始侵蚀通胀。中国是另一个值得乐观的理由。中国将提高全球对商品和服务的需求。气象预报员还预计欧洲大部分地区的温暖天气将持续下去。

The pessimistic case, however, remains strong. Central banks have a long way to go before they can be sure inflation is under control, especially with China’s reopening pushing up commodity prices. In addition, an economy on the cusp of recession is unpredictable. Once people start losing their jobs, and cutting back on spending, predicting the depths of a downturn becomes impossible. And a crucial lesson from recent years is that if something can go wrong, it often does. But it is nice to have a glimmer of hope all the same.

然而，悲观的理由仍然很充分。各国央行要确信通胀得到控制还有很长的路要走，尤其是在中国重新开放推高大宗商品价格的情况下。此外，处于衰退边缘的经济是不可预测的。一旦人们开始失业，削减开支，预测经济衰退的深度就变得不可能了。近几年来的一个重要教训是，如果有什么事情可能出错，它往往会出错。但还是有一线希望是很好的。

on the cusp of：在风口浪尖上；炙手可热