每天一篇经济学人 | Energy in Europe 欧洲的能源（202...

As disruptions to Russian gas, French nuclear power and Norwegian hydroelectricitywreak havocin Europe’s energy markets, prices are verging on the surreal. Benchmark natural-gas prices surged by 30% last week. Last summer French and German year-ahead contracts for electricity traded at around €100 ($118) per megawatt hour. Recently they rose above €1,000. Prices have fallen since, but gas still trades at the equivalent of around $400 for a barrel of oil. Shell’s boss has warned that the crisis will last more than one winter.

随着俄罗斯天然气、法国核电和挪威水力发电的中断对欧洲能源市场造成严重破坏，价格正接近超现实水平。上周，基准天然气价格飙升了30%。去年夏天，法国和德国的年度电力合同交易价格约为每兆瓦时100欧元(合118美元)。最近，交易价格涨到了1000欧元以上。自那以来，天然气价格有所下降，但其价格仍相当于每桶石油400美元左右的价格。壳牌的老板警告说，这场危机将持续不止一个冬天。

The pain will be savage and will spread as households’ and firms’ existing energy contracts expire and new ones are struck. That will intensify the squeeze on the economy that is under way as the European Central Bank raises interest rates to combat inflation. Many economists predict a recession in the next few months, and the single currency is flirting with its lowest level against the dollar in two decades. The prospect of unrest and squabbles among member states looms ahead.

随着家庭和公司现有的能源合同到期和新合同的签订，这种痛苦将是残酷的，并将蔓延开来。随着欧洲央行提高利率以对抗通胀，这将加剧对经济的挤压。许多经济学家预测未来几个月将出现经济衰退，而欧元兑美元汇率正徘徊在20年来的最低水平。成员国之间动荡和争吵的前景迫在眉睫。

So far the European Commission’s response has not been ambitious enough. Its latest idea is a cap on the price of gas used to generate electricity, which will be discussed at a summit of ministers on September 9th. The commission may also seek to overhaul the power market, so that spot prices are no longer set by the costs of the marginal producer, which is often gas-fired.

到目前为止，欧盟委员会的反应还不够雄心勃勃。它的最新想法是对用于发电的天然气价格设置上限，这将在9月9日召开的能源部长峰会上讨论。委员会还可能寻求对电力市场进行全面改革，使现货价格不再由边际生产商(通常是燃气生产商)的成本决定。

Capping prices sounds neat but could be counterproductive. That is because the ceilings will not curb demand for scarce energy. According to one study, a cap implemented in Spain has led to a 42% increase in gas-fuelled generation since June. An eu-wide policy would only increase the demand for gas further still, raising the chances of rationing in the winter. It is true that the current set-up allows some renewable-energy firms, which produce at close to zero marginal cost, to rake in profits. If gas prices were to stay high for years such windfalls could be described as unjustified rents. But that same price signal ensures that gas-fired plants generate power when the wind doesn’t blow, and incentivises more investment in renewables.

设置价格上限听起来很好，但可能适得其反。这是因为上限无法抑制对稀缺能源的需求。根据一项研究，自6月以来，西班牙实施的上限已经导致天然气发电增加了42%。一项全欧盟范围的政策只会进一步增加对天然气的需求，增加冬季定量配给的可能性。的确，当前的制度使得一些边际成本接近于零的可再生能源公司获得了丰厚的利润。如果天然气价格持续多年居高不下，这种意外之财可以被称为不合理的租金。但同样的价格信号确保了燃气发电厂在没有风的时候发电，并激励了对可再生能源的更多投资。

Rather than tinkering, governments should focus on two bigger tasks.The first is toallow the market mechanism to curb demand, while supporting the most vulnerable people. Large handouts will be needed, but targeted assistance can limit the bill: according to the imf, policies that offer rebates and cash transfers to the poorest 40% of people would be cheaper than the policy mix today, which largely includes tax cuts on fuel, or retail-price caps.

各国政府应该把注意力放在两项更大的任务上，而不是去摆弄价格。首先是允许市场机制抑制需求，同时支持最弱势群体。大量的援助是必要的，但有针对性的援助可以限制开支：根据国际货币基金组织的说法，向最贫困的40%人口提供返款和现金转移的政策将比目前的政策组合更便宜，目前政策组合主要包括燃料减税，或零售价格上限。

The second priority is toincrease supply, something that is not solely in Vladimir Putin’s gift. Other sources of natural gas can be cultivated: this is one reason why France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has just visited Algeria. Within Europe, countries can help ease bottlenecks, such as inadequate cross-border gas interconnections. Today insufficient investment and differences in standards impede the flow from Spain and France to Germany and eastern Europe. The eu needs to ensure that in the event of rationing, there is a continent-wide agreement about which users are cut off first: without this the danger is that countries will hoard supplies.

第二要务是增加供应，弗拉基米尔•普京并非是唯一提供者。其他天然气来源也可以开发：这也是法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙刚刚访问阿尔及利亚的原因之一。在欧洲内部，各国可以帮助缓解瓶颈，比如跨境天然气互连不足的问题。如今，投资不足和标准差异阻碍了从西班牙和法国到德国和东欧的流动。欧盟需要确保在配给的情况下，就首先切断哪些用户达成一项全欧洲大陆范围的协议：如果没有这个协议，各国就会囤积供应。

All this will cost money. So far Greece, Italy and Spain, among the euro zone’s most indebted members, have spent 2-4% of their gdp on fiscal handouts to cushion the energy shock. Fortunately, the eu has the firepower to help. Its €807bn pandemic recovery fund is being doled out in the form of loans and grants. Yet so far less than 15% of the pot has been disbursed. Payments for energy projects could be accelerated and the commission could offer cheap loans to help fund targeted fiscal support. The eu came together to tackle the economic consequences of the pandemic lockdowns. Be under no illusions: the energy crisis requires a similarly bold response.

所有这些都要花钱。到目前为止，希腊、意大利和西班牙，这些欧元区负债最多的成员国，已经将其GDP的2%-4%用于财政援助，以缓冲能源冲击。幸运的是，欧盟有财力提供帮助。它的8070亿欧元大流行恢复基金正以贷款和赠款的形式发放。然而到目前为止，只有不到15%的资金到位。能源项目的付款可能会加快，欧盟委员会可能会提供低息贷款，为有针对性的财政支持提供资金。欧盟联合起来应对大流行封锁带来的经济后果。不要抱任何幻想：能源危机需要同样大胆的回应。