【TED演讲稿】绿色能源转换的盲点

TED演讲者：Olivia Lazard / 奥莉薇亚?拉札德

演讲标题：The blind spots of the green energy transition / 绿色能源转换的盲点

内容概要：The world needs clean power, but decarbonization calls for a massive increase in the mining and extraction of minerals like lithium, graphite and cobalt. Environmental peacemaking expert Olivia Lazard sheds light on the scramble for these precious mineral resources -- and how the countries that control their supply chains (including China and Russia) could find themselves at the center of the new global stage. Learn why Lazard thinks planetary security depends on our ability to de...

世界需要干净能源，但脱碳就会需要大量增加一些矿物的开采，比如锂、石墨、钴。环境调解专家奥莉薇亚?拉札德要来说明这些珍贵矿物资源的争夺战——以及控制供应链的国家（包括中国和俄罗斯）如何发现它们自己进入了新全球舞台的中心位置。来听听看为什么拉札德认为地球安全要仰赖我们能否减缓资源竞争以及避免重蹈导致气候危机的覆辙。

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【1】Hi.

嗨。

【2】It's about as intimidating as I thought it would be.

站在这果然跟我想像的一样可怕。

【3】(Laughter) And yet you’d think or I’d think that I'd be accustomed to more stressful situations.

（笑声） 但,各位会认为,或我自己会认为, 我应该很习惯有压力的情境。

【4】You see, I work in international security and in conflict resolution.

因为我的工作是国际安全和冲突解决。

【5】And today, I'm here to talk about some of our blind spots related to decarbonization.

今天,我要来谈谈我们有哪些 和脱碳相关的盲点。

【6】Now, what does one have to do with the other, you may ask.

各位可能会问,两者有什么关系？

【7】Good question.

好问题。

【8】We often hear that a climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

我们常常听到,

【9】That's true.

是真的。

【10】We also often hear that renewables could be the energy of peace.

我们也常常听到,再生能源 可能会是和平的能源。

【11】Less true.

没那么真。

【12】To understand, I need to tell you about the materials that we need in order to decarbonize.

要了解这点,我得告诉各位脱碳所需要的材料。

【13】They're pretty. And they can be deadly.

它们很漂亮,也可能很致命。

【14】Looking into their story tells us that confronting conflict and building new forms of international peace are going to be critical foundations to build a climate-safe future.

探究它们的故事 能告诉我们,正面面对冲突 以及建立新型态的国际和平, 对于打造气候安全的未来, 会是很关键的基础。

【15】So let me tell you about them, starting with where we stand now.

所以,我就来谈谈它们, 从我们的现况开始。

【16】When we talk about a decarbonized future, we generally have in mind the possibility of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions.

当我们谈到脱碳的未来时, 一般来说,我们会想到的是 有可能让经济成长不再连结到 温室气体排放。

【17】That’s what we call “green growth.” What we tend to think about less often is that to get there we need to recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction.

那就是我们所谓的「绿色成长」。 我们通常比较少会去思考, 为了达成这个目标, 我们得让经济成长重新连结上

【18】To harness renewables or renewable energy like the sun and the wind, we obviously need to build technologies such as solar panels, windmills, batteries, right?

若要利用可再生能源, 如太阳和风力, 很明显我们会需要建造 一些技术,如太阳能板、 风车、电池,对吧？

【19】And to build those, we need to mine huge quantities of non-renewable materials such as these.

要建造它们, 我们需要开采大量的非可再生物质,如这些。

【20】Knowing that it takes mines as big as these to produce that much amount of usable material.

要知道,要像这么大的矿山 才能产生出足量的可用材料。

【21】Our ticket to green growth, in other words, is digging deep in the environment.

换言之,我们通往绿色成长的门票, 就是消耗更多环境资源。

【22】Now we know that mining can have grave impacts for local ecosystems and populations.

我们知道采矿对于当地的生态系统 和居民会有重大的冲击。

【23】I’ve seen it myself, and it really isn’t pretty.

我亲眼见过,真是惨不忍睹。

【24】But what I want to talk about today is about how much and where we’re going to have to dig, and what that means for planetary security and for geopolitics.

但,今天我想谈的, 是我们必须要挖多少、挖什么地方, 以及那对于地球的安全 及地缘政治有什么意涵。

【25】I'll start from there.

我就从这里说起。

【26】History tells us that when the dominant source of energy changes, power relations change as well.

历史告诉我们,当能源的 主要来源改变时, 权力关系也会改变。

【27】Countries that can transform energy to their own advantage, can gain the upper hand economically and politically, and then can put themselves at the center of the global order.

能将能源转换成自身优势的国家 在经济上和政治上都能占上风, 并能让自己成为全球秩序的中心。

【28】Think of the United Kingdom and coal, for instance, or how oil determined the ascendance of the US to a global superpower.

比如,可以想想看英国和煤, 或者石油如何让美国登上 全球超级强权的位子。

【29】What that tells us is that the access to and processing of energy literally materializes into the ability to shape geopolitical power dynamics.

那告诉我们,能够取得和拥有能源, 就等同于有能力可以形塑

【30】And today, we're facing the challenge of implementing the biggest energy transition in the history of humankind under a ticking climate clock.

现今, 我们面临的挑战是, 在气候危机的时间压力下 进行人类史上最重大的能源转换。

【31】The race is on for a new generation of power.

新世代权力的角力赛已经展开。

【32】At the heart of which you have all of the critical materials that we need to decarbonize on the one hand and digitalize on the other.

这场角力赛的核心, 就是要边脱碳边数位化 所需要的重要资源。

【33】So what's happening with them?

所以这些资源的状况如何？

【34】On the demand side we're at the beginning of an exponential demand curve.

在需求面上,我们正处在急速成长的开端。

【35】If you take lithium as a proxy, a key component for [batteries], global production already increased by just short of 300 percent between 2010 and 2020.

拿锂作例子,它是电池的关键元素, 从 2010 年到 2020 年, 锂的全球产量已经增加了近 300%,

【36】I'm going to pause here for a sec.

我要在这里停一下。

【37】This is really good news.

这是很好的消息。

【38】It means that decarbonization is in motion.

这表示脱碳已经开始进行了。

【39】The not so good news is that our "clean" future is going to be more materially intensive than before.

不太好的消息则是, 我们的「干净」未来, 材料密集的程度会更甚以往。

【40】If you take a simple measure for it, the International Energy Agency tells us that with the current level of innovation, an electric car requires six times more mineral inputs than a conventional car.

用个简单的方式衡量, 国际能源署告诉我们, 依目前的创新度, 电动车所需要投入的矿物 比传统汽车多六倍。

【41】And this is only the start.

且这才是开端。

【42】The World Bank tells us that with the current projections, global production for minerals such as graphite and cobalt will increase by 500 percent by 2050, only to meet the demand for clean energy technologies.

世界银行告诉我们, 矿物的全球生产量,如石墨及钴, 到 2050 年时会增加 500%, 这还只是要满足干净能源技术的需求。

【43】Now let's look on the supply side.

接着来谈谈供应面。

【44】That's where a lot of really interesting things are happening.

这里面有许多有趣的状况。

【45】Who currently exploits and processes minerals and where deposits to meet future demand are located tell us exactly how the transition is going to change geopolitics.

目前谁在开采和加工矿物 以及满足未来需求矿床的位置 能告诉我们这次能源转型 会如何改变地缘政治。

【46】So if you look at a material such as lithium, countries like Chile and Australia tend to dominate extraction while China dominates processing.

以锂为例, 智利和澳洲等国主宰了开采, 而中国主宰了加工。

【47】For cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

至于钴,则是刚果 中国则是主宰了加工。

【48】For nickel, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines tend to dominate extraction, while China, you guessed it, thank you, dominates processing.

至于镍, 印尼及菲律宾等国 主宰了开采,而…… 中国,你猜对了,谢谢, 主宰了加工。

【49】And for rare earths, China dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

至于稀土元素, 中国主宰了开采,中国也主宰了加工。

【50】I've just said China a lot, didn't I?

我说了好多次中国,对吧？

【51】Well, that's because China skillfully leveraged its geo-economic rise to power over the last two decades on the back of integrating supply chains for rare earths from extraction to processing to export.

因为中国在过去二十年间 整合了稀土元素 从开采、加工到出口的供应链, 藉此之力登上地缘经济的强权地位。

【52】We tend to point fingers at China today for not going fast enough on its own domestic energy transition, but the truth is that China understood already long ago that it would play a central role in other countries' transitions.

现今我们通常会指责中国自己 国内的能源转换做得不够快, 但事实上,中国很早以前就了解到 它会在其他国家的能源 转型中扮演中心角色。

【53】And it is.

事实确实如此。

【54】The European Union, for instance, is 98 percent dependent on China for rare earths.

以欧盟为例, 其稀土元素有 98% 都仰赖中国。

【55】Needless to say, this puts China in a prime position to redesign the global balance of power.

更不用说, 这让中国在操控全球 权力平衡上占有重要地位。

【56】Now, you may argue that this is a good thing because the global balance of power needs a rehaul anyway.

各位可能会说,这是好事, 因为全球权力平衡 本来就需要彻底改变。

【57】And you know what?

你猜怎磨着？

【58】I can totally roll with that.

我完全不反对。

【59】But -- and this applies to China, the United States, and any other big player -- we need to make sure that the redesigning process doesn't compromise on human rights or open societies.

但是,不管是中国、美国,及任何大玩家, 我们得要确保权力重新洗牌的过程 不会在人权或开放社会上让步。

【60】And that it doesn't lead to the weaponization of supply chains at a time of international instability, and more importantly, at a time of complete climate breakdown.

且它不能造成供应的武力化, 不论是在国际不稳定的 时候,或,更重要地, 在气候完全崩坏的时候。

【61】Unfortunately, we're already seeing signs of this happening.

不幸的是,我们已经看到征兆了。

【62】China is currently trying to gain access to more mineral resources through its Belt and Road Initiative.

中国目前在试图透过 其「一带一路倡议」 取得更多矿物资源。

【63】The United States and Europe are both thinking of reshoring critical mining and processing and orienting some of their international partnerships to facilitate access to more mineral resources.

美国和欧洲 都在考虑要将重要的采矿及加工 重新回归自己国家, 并将它们的一些国际合作关系 导向更容易取得更多矿物资源的国家。

【64】Japan is exploring some of its oceanic marine reserves to build strategic reserves.

日本正在探勘它的一些 以建造战略石油储备。

【65】I'm also speaking in the shadow of a war on the European continent.

我在演说的同时,欧洲大陆 正在战争的危险之下。

【66】Now at first sight, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with what I've been talking about.

乍看之下, 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰 和我刚才所说毫无关系。

【67】But Ukraine happens to be mineral rich.

但是,乌克兰刚好有丰富的矿藏。

【68】It also happens to be one of only two countries that had struck a partnership with the European Union to diversify and develop supply chains for critical raw materials.

只有它和另一个国家 和欧盟建立了合作关系, 针对重要的原料,使供应链 更多样化并开发供应链。

【69】That partnership was specifically designed to help the EU decarbonize and in the process to better integrate with Ukraine from a political and economic perspective.

该合作关系很明确是设计来协助欧盟脱碳, 并在过程中和乌克兰 从政治及经济角度做更好的整合。

【70】Eight months after the partnership was struck, the invasion took place.

合作关系建立的八个月后, 俄罗斯入侵了。

【71】Now, mineral resources may not explain everything about the war.

这场战争或许无法完全 用矿物资源来解释,

【72】But they certainly can't be ignored in analyzing the events.

但在分析这些事件时, 肯定不能忽略这个因素。

【73】Because when it comes to the race for critical raw materials, what's actually happening is that we're headed right back into a new scramble for resources,

因为,谈到重要原料的竞赛, 实际的状况是, 我们又走上回头路, 展开新的资源抢夺战,

【74】at the heart of which you find all of the big players eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits.

在抢夺战的核心,是所有的大玩家 觊觎着有广大矿床的国家。

【75】And yet it's so obvious many of these countries that are located, for the most part, in Africa, in Latin America, in Central Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

但,很明显,这些国家 许多都位在…… 主要在非洲、 在南美、在中亚、 在印度洋—太平洋区域。

【76】Economists will tell you that this is a great thing, because these countries, or at least a lot of them, need economic resources and many, to accelerate their development pathway and climate adaptation.

经济学家会告诉你,这样很棒, 因为这些国家,至少其中的大部分, 需要大量的经济资源, 才能加速它们的发展之路 以及气候适应。

【77】But.

但是,

【78】Many of these countries also have very real overlapping risk profiles.

当中有许多国家的 风险概况都很相似。

【79】The International Institute for Sustainable Development first produced this map back in 2018.

国际永续发展研究所 在 2018 年初次制作出了这张地图。

【80】Can you see the green dots on the map?

各位可以看到地图上的绿点吗？

【81】They represent all of the different materials that we need in order to decarbonize, their geographic location and their deposit size.

它们代表的是脱碳 所需要的各种不同材料, 以及这些材料的位置和矿床的大小。

【82】As it so happens, a lot of the deposits are located in countries that rank fairly high on corruption indices.

好巧不巧,许多这些矿床所在的国家 都有名列前茅的腐败指数。

【83】They are represented essentially by the shades of brown and red on the map.

就是在地图上呈现褐色和红色的区块。

【84】And as it so happens, a lot of the materials are also located in countries that are fragile, such as Sri Lanka, or downright conflict affected, like Myanmar and the Central African Republic.

刚好, 这些材料大部分也位在 像斯里兰卡这类脆弱的国家中, 甚或像缅甸及中非共和国 这类受军事冲突影响的国家中。

【85】That's not all.

还没完呢。

【86】The Notre Dame Institute tells us, with this map, in which you see, again, some red and orange, that countries that are climate vulnerable are also the ones that are resource endowed.

圣母大学用这张地图告诉我们什么？ 在地图上可以看到 红色和橘色的区块 是很容易受气候影响的国家, 但也同样是资源丰富的国家。

【87】And one final thing.

最后一点。

【88】You know those big ecosystems that we need to protect and regenerate in order to stabilize the global climate regime?

各位知道我们为了稳定全球气候秩序 而必须要保护和重建的大生态系统吗？

【89】To reboot the hydrological cycle and to protect biodiversity?

这攸关启水文循环的重启 并将保护生物多样性。

【90】They're also represented in orange and red on this map.

这些生态系统也是这张地图上 红色和橘色的部分。

【91】Many of these big ecosystems are located in the same fragile countries that I was mentioning before.

这些大型生态系统有许多 都位在我刚才提到的脆弱国家,

【92】They also happen to sit on vast mineral deposits.

也刚好就坐落在蕴藏丰富的矿床上。

【93】Changing or eliminating these ecosystems through mining, through deforestation or anything else would undermine planetary security.

改变或消灭这些生态系统, 不论是因为采矿、砍伐森林等等, 都会破坏地球的安全;

【94】Not just international security.

不只是国际安全,

【95】Planetary security.

而是地球的安全。

【96】It's essentially like a perfect storm in the making.

基本上,这就像是 完美风暴的酝酿阶段。

【97】Corruption, institutional and socioeconomic fragility, climate disruptions and environmental plundering, all acting as a backdrop to a competition to gain access to the minerals that we need in order to decarbonize.

腐败、 制度上和社会经济上的脆弱、 气候混乱及环境掠夺, 这些都在酝酿着 为了取得脱碳所需矿物资源 的一场争夺战。

【98】All of these factors will be magnified if we don't rein in the scramble for resources.

这些因素全都会更加重, 除非我们能控制好资源的争夺。

【99】All of them will reinforce one another.

它们全都会彼此强化。

【100】And I want to make something very clear here.

有件事我要说清楚。

【101】The countries at the heart of the resource scrambling may suffer the most direct consequences in terms of their ability to develop, to adapt to climate change and to avoid violence.

位在资源争夺战核心的国家, 可能会要承受最直接的后果, 影响到它们发展 和适应气候变迁的能力, 以及避免暴力的能力。

【102】But their fate is not isolated.

但是它们的命运和我们是相连的。

【103】Their problems are not geographically distant.

它们的问题在地理上离我们并不遥远。

【104】Our big blind spot here is that we're headed towards a decarbonization trajectory that may end up undermining ecological integrity and heighten the risks of conflict and insecurity whose consequences would reverberate worldwide.

这里,我们最大的盲点是, 在朝脱碳前进的轨迹上, 我们也危害了生态的健全, 并提高冲突的风险及不安全感, 其后果会蔓延到全世界。

【105】I know that this is not a particularly encouraging picture.

我知道这不是很鼓舞人心的景象。

【106】And that it comes on top of layers of pictures that are not particularly encouraging.

且它背后还是一层又一层 不很鼓舞人心的景象。

【107】Our modern economies have advanced and grown for two centuries through the gigantic blind spot of fossil fuel exploitation and its unintended consequences.

两世纪以来,我们的 现代经济不断进步及成长, 靠的是大量滥用化石燃料, 却胃液料到不经意造成的后果。

【108】The big lesson here is that we can't afford to just shift to a different set of energies, technologies and materials without paying attention to the unintended consequences.

这里有很重要的一课: 我们没有本钱,不能只是 转换成另一组不同的能源、 技术,和材料,而不去注意 不经意造成的后果。

【109】The stakes are too high.

赌注太大了。

【110】They involve our future.

赌注涉及到我们的未来。

【111】That we know.

这点我们知道。

【112】But they also involve our humanity.

但也涉及到我们的人性,

【113】And they involve our nature, by which I mean the nature that we choose for ourselves.

以及我们的本性, 我所指的,是我们 为自己选择的本性。

【114】Decarbonization is the way forward.

脱碳是条向前迈进的路。

【115】There’s not one single doubt allowedd about this.

这点无庸置疑。

【116】But the way forward also demands of us that we start imagining our future beyond decarbonization already.

但向前迈进的路也需要我们 开始以超越脱碳的思维 想像我们的未来。

【117】Remember what I said at the beginning?

记得我一开始时说的吗？

【118】A climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

气候安全的未来, 是和平的必要条件之一。

【119】But we won't achieve a climate-safe future without peace.

但若没有和平,我们也无法 达成气候安全的未来。

【120】And to build peace, we need to shake things up in international politics and in the way that we do business and economics.

要建立和平, 我们得要在国际政治上做出改变, 也要改变我们做生意 和发展经济的方式。

【121】So where do we start?

所以,我们要从何做起？

【122】I'd like to offer the scaffolding of a plan in four different baskets.

我想提供一个计画的架构, 从四个面向来说:

【123】First, science.

第一,科学。

【124】Science can tell us exactly where it is safe to mine and where it isn't, from an ecological perspective.

科学能从生态的观点告诉我们 在哪里采矿是安全的、哪里不是。

【125】Where it is not safe to mine, we need to act as though these minerals did not exist and establish protected areas under which no mining licensing can take place.

对于采矿不安全的地方, 我们得当作那些矿物根本不存在, 并设立保护区域, 不得核发任何在区域内的采矿许可。

【126】Where mining does take place, we can integrate socioeconomic and ecological regeneration within business models.

对于在采矿的地方, 我们可以整合社会经济 以及生态再生,放入商業模型中。

【127】Second, a global public good regime.

第二,好的全球公共制度。

【128】If decarbonization is a matter of human survival, then the materials that we need in order to decarbonize should be managed collectively under a global public good regime.

如果脱碳和人类存亡息息相关, 那么我们脱碳需要的材料 应该被一起集体管理, 用一个好的全球公共制度来管理。

【129】The alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown.

若不这么做,结果就是 冲突以及地球崩坏。

【130】So while we figure out exactly how to design this regime, the countries at the heart of the scramble for resources should receive adequate support, competent and coherent support

当我们还在想到底 要如何设计这个制度时, 身在资源抢夺战 中心的国家应该要得到 适当的支援, 充份且一致的支援,

【131】to face off the joint challenges of geopolitical competition and climate disruptions on the other hand.

才能对抗地缘政治竞争 及另一方面的气候破坏 加乘起来的挑战。

【132】In other words, investing into conflict resolution, into the fight against corruption and into context-specific resilience, should be top priorities of our global energy transition.

换言之,投资在冲突的解决方案上, 投资在对抗腐败的抗争上, 以及情境明确的恢复力上, 应该是全球能源转换的首要任务。

【133】Third, changing the way that we do business and economics.

第三, 改变我们做生意和发展经济的方式。

【134】We can't just switch from one energy system to another. I've made that pretty clear, right?

我刚才已清楚说明过我们不能单纯 从一种能源系统换到另一种。

【135】What we need instead is to reduce our need for energy and for materials.

反之,我们需要的, 是减少我们对能源及材料的需求。

【136】And that starts with massive public and private investments into circular economic models that favor recyclability and material substitution.

这就要始于将大量的公共资金 和私人资金投入循环经济模型, 且是提倡可回收性 及材料取代的模型。

【137】Now, here's the thing.

重点是,

【138】We know that this is a necessary step, but not a sufficient one.

我们知道这是必要的一步, 但这一步还不够。

【139】So what we also need to do is to develop ecological assessments for supply chains that account for greenhouse gas emissions, but also for water, soil, biodiversity, material and energy footprint all at once.

我们还需要做的 是要针对供应链来开发生态评估, 评估时要考量到温室气体排放, 但还有水、土壤、生物多样性, 材料,以及能源足迹都要一起考量。

【140】Only on this all-encompassing basis will we understand how supply and distribution chains need to change and therefore how globalization needs to transform.

唯有在这种无所不包的基础上, 我们才能够了解供应 及配送链需要怎么改变, 接着才能了解要如何 转变全球化的方式。

【141】Fourth, innovation.

第四, 创新。

【142】All of this can only happen if we start shifting our thinking about innovation.

要实现上述这些, 前提是我们得要开始转变 我们对创新的想法。

【143】Innovation in our times is about bringing back economic footprint within planetary boundaries.

在我们这个时代中的创新, 重点在于在地球的限制下 将经济足迹带回来。

【144】Anything else, even the coolest of new products, if it isn't aligned with that goal, it's not innovation, it's business as usual.

任何其他东西,就算是 新产品中最酷的, 如果没有和那目标一致, 只是照旧。

【145】In our little corner of the world, my team and I at Carnegie Europe have been working really hard to identify what regenerative foreign policy looks like and what it aims for.

在世界的一个小角落里, 我和我在欧洲卡内基的 团队一直致力于 找出再生的外交政策是什么样子, 以及其目标为何。

【146】There are two things that we know by now.

目前我们已经知道两点。

【147】One is obvious, we need to tackle fundamental issues around economic redistribution on a global scale.

第一点很明显,我们需要处理 关于经济重新分配的议题, 它是个全球规模的议题。

【148】The other thing is that we need a geopolitical de-escalation around decarbonisation and regeneration.

第二点,我们需要 在地缘政治面上减缓 脱碳及再生的脚步。

【149】We've translated that into a concept we've called ecological diplomacy.

我们将之转化为一个概念, 我们称之为生态外交。

【150】And we're pushing really hard for the European Union to adopt this framework within their foreign policy.

我们正在努力推促欧盟将 这个架构纳入其外交政策中。

【151】Because if there is one thing that we've understood, it's that ecological integrity is the foundation for all types of security.

因为,如果说我们了解一件事, 那就是:生态完整性 是各种安全的基础。

【152】Which makes it the one common denominator that we can work on rebuilding collectively.

这表示,它是一个公分母, 我们可以针对它来做到集体重建。

【153】And we can manage.

我们应付得来。

【154】Truly, I believe that we can.

真的,我相信我们可以。

【155】As long as we shed light on our transition blind spots and take them as our guiding companions to identify what truly systemic, truly peaceful and truly safe solution pathways look like for the age of climate-disrupted futures.

只要我们能清楚阐释 我们在转换上的盲点, 并用它们当作指引指南, 来辨视出真正系统性、 真正和平, 真正安全的解决途径 在气候破坏未来的时代是什么样子。

【156】Thank you so much.

非常谢谢。

【157】(Applause)