经济学人2020.1.11/The lessons from Australia’s fires

How to block blazes
如何阻挡火焰
The lessons from Australia’s fires
澳大利亚火灾的教训
Other countries are vulnerable
其他国家也很脆弱
Jan 11th 2020 |

ONE WAY of capturing the scale of the devastation that forest fires have inflicted on Australia is through figures. Some 11m hectares of the Lucky Country have gone up in smoke since September, almost the same area as Bulgaria. So far at least 26 people are known to have lost their lives, over 2,300 homes have been destroyed and over half a billion animals have been burned alive or choked to death. But numbers tell only part of the story . A plume of smoke has drifted across the South Pacific ocean, reaching Buenos Aires. Australia’s normally phlegmatic society has been shaken. Shane Warne, the most celebrated sportsman in a sports-mad nation, has gone so far as to raise money for the relief effort by auctioning off the baggy cap he wore as part of Australia’s all-conquering cricket team.
要想了解森林火灾给澳大利亚造成的破坏程度,一个方法是通过数据。自9月以来,这个幸运的国度约有1100万公顷的土地被毁,几乎与保加利亚面积相当。到目前为止,已知至少有26人丧生,2300多座房屋被毁,超过5亿只动物被活活烧死或窒息而死。但是数字只能说明一部分。一股浓烟飘过南太平洋,到达布宜诺斯艾利斯。澳大利亚一向冷漠的社会已被撼动。肖恩•沃恩(Shane Warne)是这个热爱体育的国家最著名的运动员,他甚至拍卖了自己作为所向披靡的澳大利亚板球队队员时戴的那顶松松垮垮的帽子,为救灾行动筹集资金。
词汇
Be choked to death/窒息而死
Phlegmatic/冷淡的;迟钝的
so far as to/甚至
Auction off/拍卖掉
You might think that Australia is particularly vulnerable to forest fires. But that would be a mistake. Many other countries share the same conditions that have set Australia ablaze, physically and politically, including similar terrain and a leadership that has yet to wake up fully to the new reality that climate change is creating. Worldwide, fire seasons are getting longer and more damaging. The areas at risk include America’s west coast, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and swathes of Central Asia. If that sounds alarmist, remember that in 2018 California had the deadliest forest fires in its history, killing over 80 people and causing parts of Los Angeles to be evacuated, while over 100 people died in wildfires in Greece.
你可能认为澳大利亚特别容易遭受森林火灾。但这是错误的想法。许多其他国家在地理和政治上都与澳大利亚有着(造成火灾的)相同的状况,包括相似的地形和尚未完全意识到新的气候变化形式正在演变的领导层。在世界范围内,火灾季节越来越长,破坏性也越来越大。面临风险的地区包括美国西海岸、地中海、非洲南部和中亚大片地区。如果这听起来危言耸听,请记住,在2018年,加州发生了历史上最致命的森林火灾,造成80多人死亡,洛杉矶部分地区被疏散,而在希腊,100多人死于野火。
词汇
Ablaze/着火的,猛火燃烧
Terrain/地形,地势
As a result, the lessons from Australia’s tragedy are important. One is that climate change is making infernos more likely. It is true that forest fires are a long-standing part of some territories’ ecology. But as the world gets hotter and drier, their incidence and severity are rising. In 2019 Australia’s mean temperature was the highest since records began in 1910, 1.5°C above the long-run average. The amount of rainfall, meanwhile, was 40% below the long-term average and at the lowest level since 1900. For at least a decade climate models, sometimes derided by sceptics, have accurately predicted worsening droughts and infernos in Australia.
因此,澳大利亚悲剧的教训很重要。一是气候变化使其变成人间地狱变得更有可能。的确,森林火灾是一些地区长期存在的生态问题。但随着世界变得越来越热、越来越干燥,其发生概率和严重程度都在上升。2019年,澳大利亚的平均气温是自1910年有记录以来的最高水平,比长期平均水平高出1.5摄氏度。与此同时,降雨量比长期平均水平低40%,是1900年以来的最低水平。至少十年来,气候模型(有时被怀疑论者嘲笑)准确地预测了澳大利亚日益恶化的干旱和人间地狱情形。
词汇
Inferno/阴间,地狱
Incidence/发生率;影响
Deride/嘲笑;嘲弄
Another lesson is that as fires get worse the old ways of assessing and containing them have become obsolete. Unlikely as it may seem, Australia’s fire-planning is ahead of most of the world’s—it carries out preventive burns, for example, and its planning codes seek to limit fire risks. Nonetheless this system, and a heroic voluntary firefighting force, has been overwhelmed. Attention must now turn to how to live with fires. In some places, that will mean building structures that can resist the flames. Other regions may no longer be suitable for human habitation. If governments and residents do not act, financial markets will. In California insurance firms have lost $24bn from recent fires, and the cost of bundling and reinsuring these risks is soaring as investors become unwilling to underwrite homes in dangerous places.
另一个教训是,随着火灾的恶化,评估和控制火灾的老方法已经过时了。尽管看起来不太可能,澳大利亚的火灾规划走在了世界大多数国家的前面——例如,它进行预防性的燃烧,它的规划法规寻求限制火灾风险。尽管如此,这个系统,以及英勇的志愿消防部队,已经不堪重负。现在必须把注意力转向如何与火灾共存。在一些地方,这意味着建筑结构可以抵御火焰。其他地区可能不再适合人类居住。如果政府和居民不采取行动,金融市场就会采取行动。在加州,保险公司在最近的火灾中损失了240亿美元,由于投资者不愿在危险地区承保房屋,这些风险的捆绑和再保险成本正在飙升。
The last lesson is that, as the costs of climate change stop being just about abstract temperature forecasts and start being something you can smell in your nostrils, the politics surrounding it will change, too. Australia’s conservative politicians have long downplayed climate risks, in part because some 70% of the country’s exports come from natural-resource extraction, most notably coal and iron ore shipped to China.
最后一个教训是,随着气候变化的代价不再仅仅是抽象的温度预测,而是你可以在鼻孔里闻到的东西,围绕它的政治也会改变。长期以来,澳大利亚的保守派政治家一直轻视气候风险,部分原因是该国约70%的出口来自自然资源开采,其中最主要的是运往中国的煤炭和铁矿石。
词汇
Nostril/鼻孔
Downplay/对……轻描淡写;轻视,贬低
Scott Morrison, the prime minister, won an election in 2019 in stunning fashion, partly on a climate-sceptical platform that appealed in Queensland, a swing state with a big coal industry. He is now being pilloried for his government’s laggardly climate policies and stuttering response to the fires. His position may be secure for now, but 61% of Australians think climate change is a pressing problem. Sooner or later, in hot, dry places all over the world, politicians who fail to deal with climate disasters may find their credibility going up in smoke.
澳大利亚总理斯科特•莫里森(Scott Morrison)以惊人的方式赢得了2019年的大选,部分原因是他对气候变化持怀疑态度,这在昆士兰州很有吸引力。昆士兰州是一个拥有庞大煤炭产业的摇摆州。他现在正因为政府迟缓的气候政策和对火灾的断断续续的反应而受到抨击。他的地位目前可能是稳固的,但61%的澳大利亚人认为气候变化是一个紧迫的问题。在世界各地炎热干旱的地方,那些无法应对气候灾难的政客们迟早会发现自己的信誉化为乌有。
词汇
swing state/摇摆州,美国政治名词,又常称为战场州,指竞选双方支持率差距不大的州。在历届大选中这些州经常会倒向不同的政党,频频摇摆。
Pillory/抨击
Laggardly/缓慢的;落后的