世界气象组织：2023 年 7 月将成为有记录以来最热的月份

According to ERA5 data from the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is on track to be the hottest July and the hottest month on record. These temperatures have been related to heatwaves in large parts of North America, Asia and Europe, which along with wildfires in countries including Canada and Greece, have had major impacts on people’s health, the environment and economies.

根据欧盟资助的哥白尼气候变化服务机构（C3S）的ERA5数据，7月的前三周是有记录以来最热的三周，该月有望成为有记录以来最热的月份。这些温度与北美、亚洲和欧洲大部分地区的热浪有关，加上加拿大和希腊等国的野火，对人们的健康、环境和经济产生了重大影响。

« We don’t have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board, » said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

« According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year, » Mr Guterres told journalists at UN headquarters in New York.

“我们不必等到月底才恍然大悟。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示，如果未来几天没有一个小冰河时期，2023年7月将全面打破纪录”。

“根据今天公布的数据，7月已经是有记录以来最热的三周；有记录以来最热的三天；以及每年这个时候有史以来最高的海洋温度”，古特雷斯在纽约联合国总部告诉记者。

« For vast parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe – it is a cruel summer. For the entire planet, it is a disaster. And for scientists, it is unequivocal – humans are to blame.
All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of the change, » said Mr Guterres.

«对于北美、亚洲、非洲和欧洲的大部分地区来说，这是一个酷热的夏天。对整个地球来说，这是一场灾难。对于科学家来说，人类活动是其罪魁祸首。

所有这些都与预测和反复的警告完全一致。唯一令人惊讶的是变化的速度，”古特雷斯表示。

On July 6, the daily average global mean surface air temperature surpassed the record set in August 2016, making it the hottest day on record, with July 5 and July 7 shortly behind. The first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record. Global mean temperature temporarily exceeded the 1.5° Celsius threshold above preindustrial level during the first and third week of the month (within observational error). Since May, the global average sea surface temperature* has been well above previously observed values for the time of the year; contributing to the exceptionally warm July.It is extremely likely that July 2023 will be the hottest July and also the hottest month on record, following on from the hottest June on record. According to ERA5 data the previous hottest month on record was July 2019. Complete ERA5 data for July will be available and published by C3S in their upcoming monthly bulletin on August 8.

7月6日，全球平均地表气温超过了2016年8月创下的纪录，成为有记录以来最热的一天，7月5日和7月7日紧随其后。7月的前三周是有记录以来最热的三周。在本月的第一周和第三周，全球平均气温暂时超过了比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的阈值（在观测误差范围内）。自5月以来，全球平均海面温度*远高于一年中这个时候的观测值；2023年7月极有可能是有记录以来最热的7月，也是有记录以来最高的一个月，仅次于有记录以来最低的6月。根据ERA5的数据，上一个有记录以来最热的月份是2019年7月。C3S将于8月8日在其即将发布的月度公告中公布7月份的完整ERA5数据。

It is extremely likely that July 2023 will be the hottest July and also the hottest month on record, following on from the hottest June on record. According to ERA5 data the previous hottest July and month on record was July 2019. Complete ERA5 data for July will be available and published by C3S in their upcoming monthly bulletin on August 8.

WMO consolidates data from C3S and five other international datasets for its climate monitoring activities and its State of the Climate reports.

2023年7月极有可能是有记录以来最热的7月，也是有记录以来最高的一个月，紧随有记录以来最低的6月之后。根据ERA5的数据，之前有记录以来最热的7月和月份是2019年7月。C3S将于8月8日在其即将发布的月度公告中公布7月份的完整ERA5数据。

气象组织综合了C3S和其他五个国际数据库的数据，用于其气候监测活动和气候状况报告。

Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) at ECMWF, comments: “Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures. Anthropogenic emissions are ultimately the main driver of these rising temperatures”. He added “July’s record is unlikely to remain isolated this year, C3S’ seasonal forecasts indicate that over land areas temperatures are likely to be well above average, exceeding the 80th percentile of climatology for the time of year”.
ECMWF哥白尼气候变化服务中心（C3S）主任Carlo Buontempo评论道：“破纪录的气温是全球气温急剧上升趋势的一部分。人为排放最终是这些气温上升的主要驱动因素”。他补充道：“今年7月的记录不太可能保持孤立，C3S的季节性预测表明，陆地地区的气温可能远高于平均水平，超过了一年中这个时候气候学的第80%”。
“The extreme weather which has affected many millions of people in July is unfortunately the harsh reality of climate change and a foretaste of the future,” said World Meteorological Organization’s Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. “The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is more urgent than ever before. Climate action is not a luxury but a must.”

世界气象组织秘书长Petteri Taalas教授表示：“不幸的是，7月份影响了数百万人的极端天气是气候变化的严酷现实，也是未来的预兆。”。“减少温室气体排放的需求比以往任何时候都更加迫切。气候行动不是奢侈品，而是必须的。”

WMO predicts that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record and a 66% chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one of the five years.
WMO预测，未来五年中至少有一年有98%的可能性是有记录以来最热的，有66%的可能性在五年中的至少一年暂时超过1850-1900年平均温度1.5°C。
This does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years.

这并不意味着我们将永远超过《巴黎协定》中规定的1.5°C水平，该水平指的是多年来的长期变暖。

技术信息

1.有记录以来全球最高日平均地表气温

根据ERA5数据集，2023年7月6日，全球平均地表气温达到最高日值（17.08°C）。该值与7月5日和7日记录的值相差0.01°C。如上图所示，自7月3日以来的所有日子都比2016年8月13日16.80°C的记录更热。

2. Highest monthly global mean surface air temperature on record

According to the ERA5 dataset, the global mean surface air temperature averaged for the first 23 days of July 2023 was 16.95°C. This is well above the 16.63°C recorded for the full month of July 2019, which is currently the warmest July and warmest month on record. At this stage, it is virtually certain that the full monthly average temperature for July 2023 will exceed that of July 2019 by a significant margin, making July 2023 the warmest July and warmest month on record.

2.有记录以来全球最高月平均地表气温

根据ERA5数据集，2023年7月前23天的全球平均地表气温为16.95°C。这远高于2019年7月记录的16.63°C，该月是目前有记录以来最热的7月和最热的月份。现阶段，几乎可以肯定的是，2023年7月的全月平均气温将大大超过2019年7月，使2023年成为有记录以来最热的7月和最热的月份。

3. Well above-average global sea surface temperatures

Daily sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaged over the global extrapolar oceans (60°S–60°N) have stayed at record values for the time of year since April 2023. Most notably, since about mid-May, global SSTs have risen to unprecedented levels for the time of year. According to ERA5 data, on 19th July, the daily SST value reached 20.94°C, only 0.01°C shy of the highest value recorded for 29th March 2016 (20.95°C).

3.远高于全球平均海面温度

自2023年4月以来，全球极地外海洋（60°S–60°N）的日平均海面温度一直保持在创纪录的水平。最值得注意的是，自5月中旬以来，全球SST已升至一年中前所未有的水平。根据ERA5数据，7月19日，日SST值达到20.94°C，仅比2016年3月29日记录的最高值（20.95°C）低0.01°C。

4. New national temperature records

National meteorological and hydrological services have reported a number of daily and station temperature records and are responsible for verifying any new national temperature records. Thus, China set a new national temperature record of 52.2°C on 16 July (Turpan city in China's Xinjiang province), according to the China Meteorological Administration.  WMO’s provisional State of the Global Climate 2023 report, which will be presented to COP28 in December, will incorporate details of new national temperature records.

4.全国气温新纪录

国家气象和水文部门已经报告了一些每日和站点温度记录，并负责核实任何新的国家温度记录。因此，根据中国气象局的数据，中国在7月16日（中国新疆省吐鲁番市）创下了52.2°C的新的全国气温纪录。WMO的《2023年全球气候状况》临时报告将于12月提交给COP28，其中将包含新的国家温度记录的细节。

The temperature record for continental Europe of 48.8°C (119.8°F) measured in Sicily on 11 August 2021 was not broken during the July heatwaves, according to provisional information.

根据临时信息，2021年8月11日在西西里岛测得的欧洲大陆48.8°C（119.8°F）的温度记录在7月的热浪中没有被打破。