【TED演讲稿】非洲的大碳谷 -- 以及如何终结能源贫穷

TED演讲者：James Irungu Mwangi / 詹姆斯·伊伦古·姆旺吉

演讲标题：Africa's great carbon valley -- and how to end energy poverty / 非洲的大碳谷 -- 以及如何终结能源贫穷

内容概要：Our lives depend on curbing climate change, but so many priorities seem to be in competition. What's the most urgent thing humanity can do right now? Social entrepreneur James Irungu Mwangi tells us why Africa could be the ideal home for scaling the latest and most ambitious climate technologies -- including in places like Kenya's Hell's Gate National Park, which could become part of what he calls the "Great Carbon Valley."

我们的生命安全取决于我们是否能够抑制气候变迁，但是很多重要事项都在跟它竞争优先性。什么是人类现在最急迫能作的事？社会创業家詹姆士．艾朗古．姆万吉告诉我们为何非洲可以是规模化最新，也最有企图心的气候科技的理想归宿——像是在肯亚的地狱门国家公园等地，未来就有可能成为他所述「大碳谷」的一部分。

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【1】Welcome to the gates of hell.

欢迎来到鬼门关

【2】Now depending on your frame of mind, that is either a bizarrely morbid or entirely appropriate way to start a talk about climate action in the year 2022.

根据你现在的心境 这会是一个谜之病态 或完全正确的 在2022启动气候行动讨论的方法

【3】Behind me is a picture from the Hell's Gate National Park in the town of Naivasha, in the Great Rift Valley in my home country, Kenya.

在我的后方是一个地狱门国家公园的照片 它在东非大裂谷的奈瓦沙村 在我的家乡肯亚

【4】Now its name may not scream “tourist trap,” but believe me, it is a beautiful part of the world and you should all try and visit sometime.

它的名字可能不让人觉得 它是个「旅游陷阱」 但是相信我 它是世界上美丽的一部分 而你们有空都应该来看看

【5】But more importantly, it could play -- It has the potential to play a crucial role in the fight against global climate catastrophe.

但更重要的是它可以 它有担任重要角色的潜能 在对抗全球暖化的危机中

【6】The most recent IPCC reports are clear.

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC） 最新的报告十分清楚

【7】Humanity has left cutting emissions too late.

人类太晚开始减少碳排放量了

【8】Any realistic path to avoiding unacceptable levels of warming now requires us to not only drastically cut emissions, at least halving them by 2030, but also undertake an equally massive effort to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at an accelerating rate.

任何避免无法接受程度暖化的实际方法 都要求我们不仅是剧烈地减少碳排放量 至少在2030年前要砍半 但也要采取同样庞大的努力 去移除大气层中的温室气体 而且是加速地

【9】Now, let's be clear.

我们在这裏说明白了

【10】Greenhouse gas removal is not and cannot be an excuse for continuing to emit.

温室气体的移除不是也不可以是 继续排放它的藉口

【11】Just as installing seat belts and airbags is not an excuse for deliberately ramming your car into a wall.

就像安装安全带与安全气囊不可以是 故意开你的车去撞墙的藉口

【12】(Laughter) Indeed, current estimates suggest that even with drastic emissions reductions, the world will need to be removing between five and 16 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every single year by 2050.

（笑声） 确实 现今的估计数值建议 即使大量的减少碳排放 世界也会需要每年从大气层中移除 50~160亿吨的二氧化碳 在2050年前

【13】Now to give you a sense of the scale of that, the low end of that range, five billion tons, that's bigger than the size of the global petroleum industry in 2020.

现在若要给你一个规模的概念 刚才估计的保守数值,五十亿吨 比2020年的全球全球石油工業还要巨大

【14】So let's not kid ourselves that carbon removal, at anywhere close to the scale that we will need in order to survive, is some sort of easy way out.

所以我们不要骗我们自己 说减少碳排放 在接近我们需要生存的程度 是一个容易的办法

【15】It is going to be damn difficult to do.

它会非常之艰难

【16】So how do we do it?

那麽我们应该如何去做它？

【17】Well, the first and most familiar measures would be interventions such as reforestation and landscape restoration.

首先,也是最熟悉的措施是干预 像是重新造林与恢复景观

【18】Essentially giving Mother Nature the time and space to heal herself.

本质上就是给大地 休养生息的时间与空间

【19】In addition, we can increase the amount of carbon held in our soils through the widespread application of biochar and enhanced weathering of chemically suitable rocks.

再加上我们可以增加 土地中的含碳量 透过生物碳的广泛运用 以及增强风化化学性适合的石头

【20】We estimate that in Africa alone, something like 100 million to 680 million additional tons of carbon dioxide could be drawn from the atmosphere using these types of methods.

我们估计光是非洲 大约1亿到6.8亿吨的多余二氧化碳 就能用这种方法从大气中移除

【21】However, they do require a lot of land, a lot of water and a lot of other natural resources that may limit the extent to which we can scale them.

不过这些需要大量的土地 大量的水以及大量的自然能源 就有可能会限缩我们这项措施的规模化

【22】Moreover, they are subject to some of the feedback loops from the climate change that we are already experiencing, such as more frequent and intense wildfires.

而且他们也会受到有些 我们已经在经历的 气候变迁的回馈环影响 像是更频繁而剧烈的野火

【23】And all of that means we are going to need to supplement them with technologies that accelerate and amplify natural processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

这所有都代表着我们需要用 科技来辅助它们 能够加速跟放大自然作用的科技 来移除大气的二氧化碳

【24】Enter the members of my new favorite boy band.

在此引进我最近的死忠男团

【25】DAC, BECCS and BiCRS.

直接空气碳捕获(DAC)、生物能源与碳捕获和储存(BECCS) 跟生物体碳移除与储存(BiCRS)

【26】(Laughter) These are a set of engineered approaches that use physical, chemical and biological processes to gather and concentrate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before safely sequestering it, usually underground.

（笑声） 这些是一组的工程方法 利用物理、化学与生物作用 来集中跟浓缩大气中的二氧化碳 再安全的将它隔离起来 通常在地底

【27】As more people run the climate math, you're seeing growing levels of interest and investment in these technologies, with billions of dollars already being committed to early pilots and installations in various parts of the world, particularly in Europe and North America.

当更多人开始计算气候的数字 你正看见这些科技的兴趣与投资在成长 数十亿的资金已经投入在早期试验 及世界各地的建设中 尤其是在欧洲和北美

【28】But the reality is they have a very long way to go.

但现实是他们还有很长一段路要走

【29】To date, engineered removals around the world have accounted for something like 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide removed total.

至今世界各地的工程碳移除 也不过占了大概十万吨的 总碳移除量

【30】To get to the multi-billion-ton scale we’re going to need by 2050 is going to take a truly epic process of exponential scaling.

如果要达成我们2050年需要 的数十亿吨数量级 将会需要一个史诗级的 指数型成长过程

【31】Probably means we need to get to something -- If we want to have a realistic shot at it, we need to get to something like 100 million tons per year by 2030.

约莫代表着如果我们想要达成什么 如果我们想要真的有个机会 我们在2030年前需达成大约 每年一亿吨的速度

【32】For those of you running the calculators, that's a thousand-fold increase in less than a decade.

给那些在按计算机的人 我们十年内需要成长1000倍

【33】And guess what?

猜猜还有什么？

【34】We will have to continue that insane rate of growth for another two decades after that.

我们会要继续维持这个疯狂的成长率 在那之后的二十年

【35】And here's the really bad news.

而且最糟的消息是

【36】Anything close to that level of scaling of this industry in the places where it’s currently being piloted presents some really difficult climate action trade offs.

任何这个产業中 接近那个等级的规模成长 在那些他们正在被初期试验的地方 会产生一些十分艰难的环境两难

【37】For that, let me take the example of DAC or direct air capture.

对于它,让我用DAC,或直接空气捕获 打个比方

【38】The best known DAC facility in the world is in Iceland.

世界上最为人所知的DAC设施在冰岛

【39】It's the Orca plant in Iceland, it was inaugurated last year, 2021.

那是冰岛的Orca厂房 它去年（2021）被启用

【40】It uses plentiful green geothermal energy to capture carbon dioxide, dissolve it in water and inject it into porous basalt deep underground, where it chemically reacts to create a stable solid that can stay there for centuries.

它使用充足的永续地热能 来捕获二氧化碳并将其溶于水中 再将它注射进深埋地底的多孔玄武岩 在那里它会透过化学反应形成一个稳定的固体 可以维持好几个世纪

【41】It takes the equivalent of between two and three megawatt hours of energy to take a single ton of carbon dioxide today and render it in that way.

现在这个过程需要二至三百万瓦时 才能捕获一公吨的二氧化碳 并让它成为那样

【42】To get to the hundred million number in 2030, on that track, would entail something like 200 to 300 terawatt hours of electricity.

如果要在2030年前达成每年一亿吨的速度 有望成功 会需要大约二至三百兆兆瓦时的电量

【43】Again, that's about half the electricity usage of Germany.

又来了 那大约是德国一半的用电量

【44】And all of that power would need to be renewable, otherwise, we would be taking two steps forward and one and a half steps back.

而且那些能源都会需要是可再生的 不然我们将会前进两步 却倒退一步半

【45】Now it's reasonable to expect and assume that we are going to see substantial improvements in energy efficiency of these technologies as we deploy them and learn to use them better.

虽然现在可以合理的期待并假设 我们会看见能源利用效率上重大的进步 在这些科技中 当我们部署并学习如何更佳的使用他们

【46】However, keep in mind that probably the most urgent thing we can do to slow climate change right now is stop current emissions.

但应该要在脑海中有的想法是 为延缓气候变迁,最急迫的 是停止现在的碳排放

【47】And so scaling these technologies in places where we do have fossil fuel energy emissions that we could be curtailing does not make sense.

在我们有化石能源产生的温室气体排放的地方 可以直接限缩温室气体排放 提高这些科技的规模 并不合理

【48】Essentially, every unit of renewable energy that we are bringing on stream in places like North America and Europe should be going towards displacing and retiring existing fossil fuel capacity.

本质上,每单位 我们在北美与欧洲等地 上线的可再生能源 应该要投入置换 与退役现在的化石能源容量

【49】And so the world is kind of stuck.

所以世界有点卡住了

【50】Right?

对吧？

【51】We need to scale this technology.

我们需要规模化这项科技

【52】We need to get DAC down the cost curve and up the efficiency curve urgently.

我们需要将DAC在成本曲线下降 在效率曲线上升

【53】Our lives literally depend on it.

我们的性命确实就靠它了

【54】But at the same time, we cannot do it except at the expense of other equally urgent climate imperatives.

但在同时,我们做不到它 除非我们牺牲其他同样紧急的气候措施

【55】So we need places in the world that somehow have three characteristics.

所以我们需要世界上有三项特色的地方

【56】A, they need to have the right geophysical conditions.

A、它们需要有恰当的地球物理条件

【57】You know, plenty of porous basalt rock in a geothermally active zone is one such example.

你知道的,像在活动地热区有 大量的多孔玄武岩 就是其中之一

【58】Two, they need to have plenty of renewable energy potential.

二来,它们需要有大量的可再生能源潜力

【59】And three, they need to have no current proximate emissions that that renewable energy could be used to displace.

第三点是 它们需要没有直接的温室气体排放 是可再生能源可以顶替的

【60】And that brings us back to Hell's Gate National Park.

而这就将我们带回地狱门国家公园

【61】Here's another view of the park from an angle that may explain its potential.

这是公园另一个视角的景观 从一个可以解释它的潜力的角度

【62】That is one of the power plants that together constitute the Olkaria Geothermal Energy Plant, which provides about a third of Kenya's electricity.

这是Olkaria地热发电厂 的其中一个发电站 它提供了肯亚大概三分之一的电力

【63】That's right.

那就对了

【64】My home country not only has 92 percent renewable electricity being dispatched on its grids today, but its largest single-energy installation is seamlessly integrated into an honest-to-goodness national park.

我的家乡不但有百分之九十二的可再生电力 在输电网上传输 它最大的独立能源设施 无缝接轨在一个货真价实的国家公园里

【65】Literally, between the different plants you can see herds of zebra peacefully grazing all times of the day.

说真的,你可以在各种植物之间看到一群一群的斑马 在一天的任何时段宁静的吃草

【66】It's amazing.

很惊人

【67】Now at just under 1,000 megawatts, Olkaria is nothing to sneeze at.

如今接近1000百万瓦的 Olkaria并不是等闲之辈

【68】It's one of the largest geothermal electricity installations in the world.

它是世界上最大的地热电力设施之一

【69】But it's barely scratching the surface of the potential in Kenya.

但是它只不过是肯亚潜能的最表层而已

【70】There's 10 gigawatts of proven, high-quality geothermal resource in the country, widely recognized, ready to be tapped.

经证实国家中存在10百万千瓦 高品质的地热能源 广泛被认可,亟需被利用

【71】And in addition, Kenya is endowed with excellent wind and solar resources that have also barely been exploited.

此外 肯亚也被上天赋予出色的风能与太阳能 两者都几乎没有被利用

【72】We are on the equator, after all.

我们说到底还是在赤道上

【73】We estimate conservatively that there's about 50 gigawatts of potential deployable renewable energy in Kenya that can be readily accessed with the right level of investment.

我们保守估计肯亚大约有50百万千瓦 的潜在可利用可再生能源 只要有足额的投资 随时都可以存取

【74】And yet, Kenya remains an energy-poor country where, despite a lot of progress in recent years, more than a quarter of the population still does not have access to basic electricity.

但是肯亚却依然是个能源不足的国家 即使近年有了很多的进步 超过四分之一的人口依然没有 基本供电

【75】And those that do often pay prices that are almost three times as much as much as their counterparts in countries like India and China.

而那些有的人付的电价 几乎是他们印度跟中国同侪的三倍之多

【76】Now you might be sitting there wondering, "Well, all right, James, if this is true, if Kenya has all of this renewable energy potential and all of these people in need of energy,

现在你可能坐在那边想 「好,詹姆斯,如果这是真的 如果肯亚真的有这麽多 潜在的可再生能源 跟这麽多需要能源的人

【77】well, before we have this whole conversation about fancy climate tech, shouldn’t we first have a TED Talk about affordable energy access?”

那在我们讨论高级气候科技之前 我们不是应该先举办一个 可负担能源使用权的TED Talk吗？」

【78】And you would be right.

而你会是对的

【79】Were it not for a particularly cruel paradox of energy economics in countries like Kenya.

如果不是因为一个特别残忍的环境经济悖论 在像是肯亚的国家

【80】You see, part of the reason why energy is so expensive in the country is those consumers who are on the grid have to pay for capacity that is not currently being used.

你看 能源在国内这么昂贵的部分原因 是这些在输电网上的消费者 需要为还没被使用的电能付费

【81】There's something like 1,000 megawatt hours every day that goes begging because there isn’t sufficient industrial demand.

每天约莫1000百万瓦的电能无人问津 因为没有足够的产業需求

【82】At the same time, those very same high energy prices make the country unattractive and uncompetitive for manufacturers and other users of energy looking for places to site their industries.

于此同时 那些高昂的电价 让国家对制造商没有吸引力与竞争力 对其他正在寻找设厂处的 能源使用者也是

【83】So to get this straight, the reason why the average Kenyan cannot get affordable access to clean, renewable energy despite all of this natural bounty, is this tremendously frustrating feedback loop where firstly, we would have all of that energy if someone invested in renewable power plants.

所以厘清这件事情 为何一般肯亚民众无法用可以负担的价格取得 干净而可再生能源,即使有这么多的自然宝藏 是因为这个非常令人沮丧的回馈回圈 首先 我们会有那全部的能源 如果有人愿意投资可再生发电厂

【84】People would invest in those power plants if there was a lot of available industry to use the energy.

有人愿意投资可再生发电厂的前提是 有很多产業需要使用能源

【85】Available industry would come if energy costs weren’t so high.

有能源需求的产業如果 电价没这么高才会进驻

【86】And energy costs wouldn’t be so high if there was enough demand.

如果需求量够大电价就不会这么高

【87】It's enough to drive you crazy.

这足够让人疯掉

【88】But it also points the way to a potential huge triple opportunity.

但它也指向一个潜在的 庞大的三角机会

【89】Firstly, introducing DAC and other energy-hungry climate technology into places like the Rift Valley would give them the space and capacity they need to really scale to planetary levels.

首先 将DAC与其他大量需要 能源的气候科技引进 像是东非大裂谷的地方 这会给那些科技足够的 空间和容量 去扩大到全球级的规模

【90】With no competition, with none of the trade-offs they would face in other parts of the world.

没有其他的竞争者 也没有他们在世界上其他地方 会需要面临的牺牲

【91】At the same time, having that energy-hungry anchor industry available suddenly creates the basis on which people are willing to invest in expanding the country's renewable energy potential.

于此同时 当有渴求能源的产業作为锚点 就突然创造了人们愿意投资的基础 在扩展国家的可再生能源潜力上

【92】Actually creating the business case for providing tens of millions of people with the productive energy they need to improve the quality of their lives.

实际创造企業案件 为提供数千万计的人们 他们需要用来提升他们 生活品质的丰富能源

【93】And thirdly, introducing these new and exciting technologies on the continent with the world's youngest and fastest-growing workforce could potentially activate their imaginations

第三者是 引进这些新而令人兴奋的科技 在有着世界最年轻也成长 最快的劳动力的大陆上 有机会激发他们的想像力

【94】and their energies towards becoming climate innovators and solution builders themselves, basically building an army from the world's largest workforce to solve the world's biggest problem.

跟他们的精力朝向成为气候创新者 与解决方案建造者 基本上就是利用世界上最大 的劳动力来建立军队 以解决世界最大的问题

【95】I call it the “Great Carbon Valley.” And it's just one of the ways in which Africa, as the continent, which, per capita, is the closest to net-zero and has contributed the least to climate change, can play a role in helping the planet avert climate disaster.

我叫它「大碳谷」 而它只是其中一种 非洲作为一个大陆 单位人口最接近零碳排放 对气候变迁贡献最少 可以在幫助地球避免 气候灾难中担任的角色

【96】But in addition, it can do more and be the first continent to go substantially net-negative.

除此之外它还能做更多 成为第一个显着负碳排的洲

【97】We're used to thinking about the continent in terms of its forests, its peatlands, its grasslands, its wetlands that need to be preserved.

我们习惯以需要保存的 森林、泥炭地、草地及湿地 来思考这片大陆

【98】And we should definitely continue to invest in the Indigenous communities, the smallholder farmers and the local innovators who are protecting and expanding natural carbon sinks.

我们也应该继续投资当地的社区 那些小农民与当地的创新者 因为他们正在保护跟扩大自然碳庫

【99】But that should not blind us to the fact that Africa also provides an ideal potential home for scaling the latest and most ambitious of climate technologies.

但是这不应该阻碍我们看到事实 非洲能够提供一个理想的可能归宿 给最新也最有抱负的气候科技增加规模

【100】Whichever of these narratives most speaks to you, one thing should be clear.

不论你对以上哪一个叙述 最有共鸣 有一件事情应该要是清楚的

【101】We need to shake the old, tired idea that Africa is a poor, hapless, helpless climate change victim.

我们必须摆脱那个老套的想法 説非洲是一个穷,倒楣 而无助的环境变迁受害者

【102】Instead, Africa and its people have the potential.

其实非洲与它的人民有潜能

【103】They can, and they should, be the world’s climate vanguard.

他们可以,也应该是世界的气候先锋

【104】Thank you.

谢谢大家

【105】(Applause and cheers)