【龙腾网】与西欧相比，为何俄罗斯的人均GDP如此之低？
正文翻译
How is it possible that Russia per capita GDP is so low, compared to Western Europe? I have been to Moscow for three days and it looked a quite wealthy place. Is the rest of Russia that much poorer?
与西欧相比，为何俄罗斯的人均GDP如此之低？我在莫斯科住了三天，感觉相当富裕？难道俄罗斯除莫斯科外的地方很穷吗？
Data on the gross domestic product of any country is largely an illusion. In order to see the real situation, we must look at least two things: the gross domestic product and the purchasing power parity. The purchasing power parity gives an opportunity to estimate the real volume of the economy without reference to the dollar exchange rate, as well as the real standard of living in the country.
任何一个国家的国内生产总值数据某种程度上来说都是一种假象。为了看清楚这个问题，我们必须注意两个指标。一个是国内生产总值，另外一个是购买力平价。购买力平价指数可以让我们在不考虑美元汇率的情况下，真实的反映当地的生活水平。从而能够以此来更好的估计当地的经济规模。
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This means that real industrial production in the US is more than ours at 4.8 / 2.2 = 2.18 times. And if we take into account the shadow sector, which is much larger in Russia than in the US, the gap will become even less noticeable. A similar calculation for China shows that the volume of the product produced there is higher than we have 7.44 times. In terms of per capita we come to interesting and unexpected conclusions. The US population is 2.2 times more than ours, and the population of China is 9.38 times.
这意味着俄罗斯生产的比例比美国要高。如果我们把俄罗斯影子经济也考虑进去的话。这一差距会变得更小。以中国为例，中国生产总值是我们的7.44倍。从人均来看，我们得出一个非常有意思的结论。美国的人口是我们的2.2倍，中国人口是我们的9.38倍。
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2.Bob MacKenzie
, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private Business Self Employed Thinker (1993-2010)
Per capita GDP does not show you anything of any importance. It is just the gross GDP divided by the population. That certainly does not say who got more money than the next guy.What you need to look at as far as GDP is concerned is NGDP ppp that is the nominal gross domestic product as compared to purchasing power parity. Simply put that means how much a given currency can buy with the same currency compared to another economy.In Europe it may cost 15 Euros for a kilo of beef but in Russia it might cost 5 Euros for a kilo of beef. That mean the people in Russia can live on 33% of what people in the EU need to live on.
人均GDP并没有显示出很多非常重要的信息。人均GDP算法就是根据GDP具体规模然后除以人口。就GDP而言，你需要关注的是购买力评价。简单的来讲，购买力评价定义了一种货币相对于另外一种货币可以购买货物的多少。在欧洲，1公斤牛肉的价格可能是15欧元。但是在俄罗斯，1公斤牛肉价格可能只需要五欧元。这意味着俄罗斯人的生活费仅为欧盟人所需的33%。
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It also means that Russia can manufacture goods cheaper than some comparative countries. If needs be it can make five missiles to the US one at the same cost without going into debt. The US however has go into debt even farther to keep pace. In an arms race it is a question of who will go broke first.
这同时也意味着俄罗斯所生产的商品比其他国家的商品更加便宜。这也意味着，罗斯可以用同样的成本造五枚导弹。但是美国武器价格就高的多，如果美国也按照这个比例去增加它的导弹的话，美国可能就要破产了。美国现在已经债台高筑了。在军备竞赛当中，重要的问题是谁会先破产。
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The over all NGDP of a country does not tell you how wealthy the country is. Russia is growing its economy even though the US is trying to stop it with sanctions and vilifying propaganda.Russia has cash and low debt of 17.4% of GDP. The US has no cash and high debt ratio of 109% of GDP China by comparison has large amount of cash with a debt ratio of about 14% GDP.
一个国家的国民生产总值并不会告诉你这个国家有多富有。美国一直都试图通过宣传和诽谤来阻止俄罗斯发展，但是俄罗斯依然在进步当中。俄罗斯现金充足，债务很低，俄罗斯的债务仅占GDP规模的17.4%。美国是没有剩余资金的，美国负债率高达GDP的109%。中国有大量的资金，中国负债率占GDP的14%。
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There is a market test called the Macdonald’s comparative. That is just a question of how much it costs for a Macdonald’s Hamburger in comparative countries as an indication of purchase power parity between economies. As an illustration it costs on average about $4.50 for a Big Mac in the US and about $2.75 in China and in Russia the same Big Mac will cost about 7 Rubles or about 11 cents in US currency . So in Russia you could buy a lot of hamburgers for $4.50 USD
有一种简单的测试叫做麦当劳指数。这种算法是简单的。比较这个国家的麦当劳与其他国家麦当劳价格。人们将此作为购买力评价的一个指标。简单来讲，一个巨无霸在美国平均价格为4.5美元。在中国和俄罗斯为2.75美元。所以在俄罗斯的话，可以花相同的价格买到更多的汉堡包。
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3.Freddy Smith
, lives in Sometimes Broxbourne, Hertfordshire, UK; Sometimes London
Moscow is very wealthy. What you have seen there is typical of big country/big city wealth. You’d see the same in Paris and London (and, like Moscow, their peripheral regions). If you spend three days in central Paris, or central London, you will see plenty of evidence of stratospheric wealth and enormous affluence.
俄罗斯的莫斯科是非常富有的。你在莫斯科看到的是一个典型的大国中心城市的状态。其实你会在巴黎和伦敦周围也看到类似的状况。如果你在巴黎市中心或者伦敦市中心待上三天。你就能够感受到大量的证据。你能够看到这两个城市拥有超高的财富。
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But go to a small town in Limousin or Yorkshire and things are very different. It’s the same in Russia. Moscow, London and Paris are all huge and Russia, UK and France are very dependent on these mega-cities. You’ll notice that countries such as Germany are more equalised and spread out. The functions of, say, London are spread between Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich in Germany.
但是，在利木赞或者是约克郡的一个小镇上，情况就完全不同了。在俄罗斯也是一样的。莫斯科，伦敦和巴黎都很大。俄罗斯，英国和法国都非常依赖这些巨型城市。你会发现德国和这些国家是不同的，德国的城市相对就比较分散。德国的城市普遍发展的更加均衡。在德国，伦敦所执行的功能被柏林，法兰克福，汉堡和慕尼黑分别承担。
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But there are still some very grim, grotty, sketchy towns and districts there all the same, and they are poorer than their Western European or North American equivalents. I could take you to towns in France, UK and even Germany that are run-down, depressing, and going nowhere. They are not as bad as some poor towns in Russia, however.
但是那依然是一个非常严峻，非常糟糕的，功能非常不完善的城镇地区。他们比西欧和北美的同等规模的城镇更加贫穷。我可以带你去法国，英国甚至德国的城镇。那里也破败不堪，令人沮丧。但是他们绝对不会像俄罗斯的城镇那样破败贫困。俄罗斯的城镇实在是太糟糕了。
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Huge cities tend to generate their own wealth and seem to rise to a common big-city standard. Moscow, Paris, London, New York (etc) often have more in common with each other than they do with distant regions in their own countries. A wealthy Parisian or Londoner might feel much more at home in Moscow than in a de-industrialised dump in the French or British ex-coalfields. The following cities are probably poorer than Moscow, but on a quick three day visit, they can also seem much wealthier than their country’s GDP might suggest: Bangkok, Buenos Aires, Sao Paolo, Mexico City.
大城市往往是创造财富的地方。莫斯科达到了大城市的标准。莫斯科，巴黎，伦敦，纽约，他们之间的共同点往往比他们与本国其他遥远地区的共同点还要多。富裕的巴黎人或伦敦人有莫斯科的感觉。下面我列出一些城市，这些城市可能比莫斯科更穷。但是，如果你只做三天的短暂访问的话，你依然能够感受到，从这几个地区看起来，他们要比他们国家所在的GDP的水平看起来要更高。
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4.Wladimir Feldman, studied Economics (1998)
·Upvoted by Serhiy Kalinovsky, EMBA Economics, Stockholm School of Economics (2012)
And Paul Zaychik, MS Computer Science & Economics, New York Institute of Technology (1995)
A picture worth a thousand words.
This is a photo I’ve made just outside of my office:
这是我在办公室外边拍到的一张照片。
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This wooden houses are more than 100 years old but people still live in them because they do not have money to buy anything better.
And this is a picture I’ve made after a 5-minute walk:
这座木房子已经有100多年的历史了。但是人们依然住在里面。因为他们没有钱买更好的。如下是我在散步五分钟后拍到的一张照片。
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You see that modern building at the background? It is a theatre that was built about 5 years ago. It costed more than $300 million and about half of that sum was stolen by government officials (starting with a federal minister who was responsible for funding). It is large and pretty but is surrounded by 100+ years old houses inhabited by people earning $200 per month.It is Russia in a nutshell: a small islands of “normal” life, mostly built on the foundation of oil revenues and theft, surrounded by vast ocean of poverty.
你看到远处的那个背景了吗？那是一栋现代的建筑。那是一个五年前建造的剧院。这个项目耗资3亿多美元。这其中大约有一半的资金被当地政府官员贪污。联邦部长是其中最主要的参与者。这座剧院又大又漂亮，但是它的周围是超过100年的老房子。里面的人每月收入仅有两百美元。以上就是俄罗斯非常正常的一个画面。俄罗斯大部分的收入建立在石油和腐败的基础上。除此之外，其他地区是一片贫困的海洋。
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5.Ralph Raymond
, former Professor
Moscow and St. Petersburg (Leningrad) were the showplaces of the former Soviet unx, and they have retained their advantages in the age of Putin-associated billionaire kleptocrats. These cities are booming. But outside the major cities, in the Russian villages, one can get a very authentic sense of 19th-century Russia in the age of Tolstoy, Chekhov, or Turgenev. As one of my students said a few years ago as we were touring post Soviet Russia, "This has got to be the largest third-world country in the world."
莫斯科和圣彼得堡是前苏联向整个世界展示成果的地方。在我们所处的这个时代，那些与普京有着紧密联系的亿万富翁依然保持着自己的优势。这两个城市依然在蓬勃发展。但是俄罗斯除了少数城市之外的其他地方发展相当落后。人们可以真切的感受到19世纪托尔斯泰，契诃夫或屠格涅夫时代的俄罗斯。几年前，我的学生去俄罗斯旅游，正如他所说的那样“俄罗斯一定是世界上最大的第三世界国家”。
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Economic polarization in Russia in the age of Putin's mafia-kleptocracy exceeds even that of the US under Trump. In Russia's case, it goes far to explain why liberal democratic reforms were unable to take hold in the 1990's. In the case of the US, economic polarization threatens to undermine the foundations of American democracy.
俄罗斯现在经济的两极化甚至超过了特朗普治下的美国。俄罗斯的状态很好的解释为何上世纪90年代改革都无法成功。就美国而言，经济两极化可能会破坏美国民的基础。
俄罗斯少部分人非常富有，他们直接受益于腐败和经济机会的不平等。
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6.Roger H Werner
, Geoarchaeologist, cartographer, historian (1979-present)
I visited the former Soviet unx 2 years after the collapse and what I saw astounded me. One city of almost 300,000 people provided running water three days a week with hot water for two hours on Saturday. In another city of about the same size, public urinals consisted of stalls over concrete with holes with which to squat over; there was an attendent wearing a white smock providing clean cloth hand towels. rural areas, public places were serviced by latrines, some of which contained air so acrid it burned one’s eyes. Twety-four years later, we’ve seen the average income in Russia decrease from $15,000 per annum to abot $9,000. Why? Russia is a kleptocracy. Its leaders rip off billions of dollars in national wealth, which effects the ability of everyone else to earn money. Russia started from a position of relative poorness compared to the west.
在苏联解体的两年之后，我曾经访问过苏联。我被当时看到的景象令我震惊。当时我去了一个小城市，这个拥有30万人口的城市每周提供三天的自来水。仅提供两个小时的热水。在另外一个大小差不多的城市。公共卫生间的小便池是由混凝土上的小隔间组成的。公共场所有厕所，但是厕所里面的环境非常恶劣。四年之后，我看到俄罗斯平均收入从每年15000美元下降到9000美元。为什么呢？因为俄罗斯效率实在是太低了。他们的官员掠夺了数十亿美元的国家财富。这影响了其他人赚钱的能力。与其他西方的国民相比，俄罗斯的国民是从一种很贫困的状态开始的。所以他们发展非常缓慢。
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in the 1990s, western financial institutions did their best to rip off Russia and then came Putin, who decided that situation was intollerable. He set things up so that Russian oligarchs are ripping off Russia and that’s acceptable. Putin’s daughter and her husband have an estimate net worth of over a billion dollars and neither have a viable source of income. Wealth concentration simply prevents wealth from being spread among the many.
上世纪90年代。西方金融机构曾经竭尽所能的去欺骗俄罗斯。最后，普京出现了。他认为这种局面是不可避免的。他把很多事情给安排好。他让俄罗斯的寡头们可以尽情的去剥削俄罗斯。他认为这是可以接受的。普京的女儿以及女婿的资产估计超过10亿美元。但是两个人都没有可行的收入来源。俄罗斯财富集中只会导致其他人的贫困。
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7.Roger Buffington
, Managing Attorney (1998-present)
Upvoted by
Daria Ulashchik
, born in USSR and live in Russia
Russia has always been well-blessed and badly cursed. It is blessed with intelligent, talented, and likable people, and abundant natural resources. It is cursed by geography and no cultural foundation for representative democracy and good government, as are, for example Britain, the USA and Canada, most of Western Europe, and the rest of the English speaking world. Geographically Russia suffers from having very little coastline, which has always made the country one of the poorest in Europe due to the high cost to transport bulk goods. Railroads and modern technology should have begun to remedy this by the late 18th Century, but unfortunately bad government and corruption aborted what was a promising Russian modernization (and rising prosperity) in the late 1800s.
一直以来，俄罗斯既是福星高照，又饱受诅咒。俄罗斯拥有聪明，有才干以及非常可爱的人们。俄罗斯拥有着非常丰富的自然资源。但是俄罗斯也与英国，美国和加拿大以及大多数西欧国家一样。他们被地理条件，被缺乏良好代议制的民主组织模式所诅咒。在地理上来讲，俄罗斯的海岸线很少。俄罗斯大宗货物运输成本很高，这使得俄罗斯一直都是欧洲最穷的国家之一。在18世纪晚期，铁路和现代化的进步开始逐步解决这一问题。但不幸的是，俄罗斯政府腐败，他们扼杀了19世纪俄罗斯的现代化。
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The Russian Revolution killed capitalism and the entrepreneurial spirit, which are the biggest drivers of prosperity in human history. Combine that with two serious wars, and overall bad government, and bad geography and all the pieces are in place for Russia to be poor.The dissolution of the USSR opened a brief window to Russian economic progress, but alas, Russia’s lack of a tradition for non-corrupt democratic governance again asserted itself, and we now have Russia governed autocratically and poorly. A sad state of affairs to afflict a great people.
俄国的社会主义革命扼杀了资本主义和企业家精神。而资本主义和企业家精神是人类历史上最大的驱动力。此外，俄罗斯还经历了严重的战争。俄罗斯有着很糟糕的政府。俄罗斯的地理位置也非常糟糕。所有这些都是俄罗斯贫穷的原因。苏联的解体为俄罗斯的发展带来了一扇短暂的窗口。但遗憾的是，俄罗斯缺乏民主治理模式。传统的政治模式再次兴起。我们现在看到的俄罗斯是一个独裁且糟糕的俄罗斯。这就是一个伟大民族痛苦而可悲的状态。
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8.Valentin Filippov
, a Russian from Saint-Petersburg
Upvoted by Serhiy Kalinovsky , EMBA Economics, Stockholm School of Economics (2012)
And James Lacey, Ph.D. Economics, unx Institute & University (1996)
Yes, much poorer. You don’t have to go far from Moscow to see that.The reason is simple: Russia is very ineffective as a country. The way everything is organized, the culture of power, laws on business create an atmosphere where it’s hard to earn money. That atmosphere is also toxic for investors, for money in general. Since there’s no really independent law, officials are able to take someone’s posessions using fake accusations — and rich people store and invest their money abroad, transfer companies to offshores etc.
是的，俄罗斯其他地方要穷的多。你离开莫斯科不需要走很远就可以真实见证这个状况。原因也非常简单，作为一个国家，俄罗斯本身是非常低效的。俄罗斯的组织方式，俄罗斯的权力文化，俄罗斯的商业和法律使得俄罗斯创造了一种很难赚钱的社会氛围。这种氛围对于外资和国内的投资人来讲都是非常有害的。由于俄罗斯没有尊重独立的法律，罗斯的官员可以通过自己虚假的指控拿走别人的财产。所以俄罗斯的富人都将他们的钱存储到海外，或者是去海外置业。他们有些人会将企业转移到海外等等。
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9.Jan Stubbs
, former Manager of Software Engineers, Economics Wizard. at Yahoo! (2000-2007)
·Upvoted byJames Feigenbaum, Ph.D. Economics, University of Iowa (2003)
In a word, yes, the rest of Russia is much poorer. Russia has one of the most unequal income distributions, in the world. The money, power, and rich people are mostly in Moscow. The rest of Russia, the largest country in the world is not so lucky.Top 10% of Russian Wealth holders own 89% of wealth. Russia has 96 $Billionaires. Many of them live in Moscow, in fact not long ago Moscow had more $billionires than any other city.
简而言之，你的结论是对的，俄罗斯其他地区确实要穷得多。俄罗斯是世界上收入分配最不平等的国家之一。俄罗斯的金钱，权利和富人大多集中在莫斯科。作为世界上面积最大的国家。俄罗斯其他地区就没有那么幸运了。俄罗斯前10%的人持有89%的财富。俄罗斯有96位亿万富翁。他们中很多人都住在莫斯科。
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Just 110 of the Richest Russsian Oligarchs own 33% of all Russian wealth. Only .2% of the world’s 30 million $Millionaires, but 20% of the worlds $Billionaires. The average salary in Moscow is more than $1000/month, while it is 1/2 that in the rest of Russia. The minimum wage was recently raised to about $180/month, which is just enough to survive.
俄罗斯110位最富有的寡头拥有俄罗斯全部财富的33%。俄罗斯只有全球2%的百万富翁。但是俄罗斯的亿万富翁却占全世界的20%。莫斯科的平均工资超过1000美元每月。但是俄罗斯其他地区的工资只有莫斯科的一半都不到。俄罗斯有些地方最低工资只有180美元每月。这些钱只够维持基本的生计。
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10.Tim Ryan
The level of corruption and lack of human rights stifles hard work, creativity and Entrepreneurship. There is no reward for a regular person in the market so they do not take risks or work hard.I agree parts of Western Russia are very wealthy but only a few people control the vast resources of this country so there is no middle class or upper middle class.
俄罗斯政治腐败，人权纪录也不好，这扼杀了俄罗斯人努力工作，努力创业的精神。俄罗斯进行商业缺乏利润，所以他们不愿意冒险或努力工作。我同意，俄罗斯西部确实非常富有。但是俄罗斯只是少数人控制国家的大量资源。俄罗斯没有中产阶级或者是上层中产阶级。
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I believe the World Bank estimated that 20 percent of the RUSSIAN economy is corruption.Sad for the world this is was has come of it. We were all hoping Russia would join the ranks of the world’s great open market and democratic nations but instead they have move from a soviet communism to a fascist oligarchy.
世界银行估计，俄罗斯经济的20%是来源于腐败。我相信世界银行的估计。这真是一件非常悲哀的事情。我们都希望俄罗斯能够加入世界上开放市场。能够进入民主国家的行列。但是俄罗斯却从苏联的共产主义变成了现在的寡头政治模式。
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11.Vojta Rod
, studied Media Studies at Metropolitan University Prague (2018)
Easy answer - highly centralised developing country. Moscow and St. Petersburg are only places that could be compared with Western/Central Europe in main economical/social metrics.
答案非常简单，俄罗斯是一个高度集权的发展中。在主要经济和社会指标方面，莫斯科和圣彼得堡是唯一可以与西欧和中欧相比较的地方。
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Even Russians often say that these two cities are not “Russian” or don't represent real Russia.
甚至连俄罗斯人也经常说，这两个地方不是俄罗斯的。这两个地方不能代表真正的俄罗。
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Your question could represent fundamental problem about understanding of term developed/wealth country because your opinion Is based on the capital. Even relatively poor countries in Asia/Africa/south America have quite wealthy/developed capitals/big cities. So you are right Moscow is quite wealthy/developed but majority of Russia is sqsnot Moscow and mainly small towns and countryside have extremely low standars and I am talk often about basic standars such as sanitation…
你的问题可以很好的作为一个国家的注解。你基于一个国家的观点主要是基于首都。其实，即使是那些相对贫穷的亚洲，非洲，南美洲国家的首都，你也会看到有很多富裕的人口。所以你是对的，莫斯科非常富有，非常发达。但是俄罗斯其他大部分地区。不是这样的。俄罗斯主要的城镇和农村的生活标准非常低。我讨论基本标准的时候，通常都会说到卫生设施……
