每天一篇经济学人 | The energy crunch 能源危机（202...

The energy crisis unleashed by Russia’s war on Ukraine is crushing Europe’s consumers and panicking its politicians. Natural-gas prices are eight times higher than they were last summer and traders expect precious little respite over the coming year. Global oil prices are nearly twice their level in January 2021. The result is rampant rises in living costs. By October a household in Britain could be paying more than £3,500 ($4,200) a year for energy, more than three times last year’s bill, leading the Bank of England to warn of inflation passing 13% before the year is out. Annual consumer-price inflation rates are already in double digits in half of the euro area’s member countries. 

【1】respite 喘息

俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争所引发的能源危机正在打击欧洲的消费者，并让欧洲的政治家们感到恐慌。天然气价格是去年夏天的8倍，交易员们预计来年不会有什么喘息的机会。全球油价几乎是2021年1月的两倍。结果导致生活成本飙升。到今年10月，英国的一个家庭每年要为能源支付超过3500英镑(4200美元)的费用，这一数字是去年能源账单的三倍多，这使得英格兰银行发出警告，通货膨胀率将在今年年底前超过13%。欧元区半数成员国的年度消费价格通胀率已经达到两位数。

Alas, politicians are botching their response. To stop rising wholesale energy prices passing through fully to consumers’ bills, many have resorted to price caps and energy-tax reductions. Liz Truss, a Conservative politician vying to become Britain’s next prime minister, is talking of cutting payroll taxes. But price ceilings do nothing to reduce energy use and tax cuts will not protect the poorest. With no immediate end to the crunch in sight, it is time for some hard-headed thinking about how to live with higher energy bills.

哎，政客们应对的方式过于糟糕。为了阻止不断上涨的能源批发价格完全转嫁到消费者的账单上，许多政客们采取了价格上限和降低能源税的措施。利兹·特拉斯是一名竞争英国下任首相的保守党政治家，她正在谈论削减工资税。但价格上限对减少能源使用没有任何作用，减税也不会保护最贫困的人。眼下，危机还没有结束的迹象，是时候冷静地思考如何应对更高的能源账单了。

The cheapest protection is to trade natural gas across national borders, which imf modelling suggests could nearly halve the blow to GDP in the worst-affected countries. Next, within domestic markets, price signals have a vital role to play in curbing demand and ensuring that precious gas gets to where it is most needed. Ceilings on the price of natural gas used by power generators, as in Spain and Portugal, or a cap on household bills, as in France, may serve as emergency measures when a shock is fleeting. But today’s scarcity is likely to be long-lasting. Consumers and businesses need to adapt. 

最廉价的保护措施是跨境交易天然气，国际货币基金组织的模型表明，这可能会使受影响最严重的国家的GDP受到的打击减少近一半。其次，在国内市场，价格信号在抑制需求和确保宝贵的天然气到达最需要的地方方面发挥着至关重要的作用。像西班牙和葡萄牙那样，对发电厂使用的天然气价格设置上限，或者像法国那样，对家庭账单设置上限，这些都可以在短暂的冲击时作为应急措施。但今天的“短缺”情况可能会持续很久。消费者和企业需要适应。

Hearteningly, there are signs that people and businesses can and do respond to high prices by conserving energy. They are also more resilient than fearful governments might think. In Germany farmers and industrialists are importing more ammonia and other energy-intensive chemicals, rather than relying on dearer domestically produced inputs. Studies suggest that both German households and firms have reduced their consumption of natural gas since mid-2021. 

令人振奋的是，有迹象表明，人们和企业确实能够通过节约能源来应对高油价的问题。他们也比担忧的政府所想象的那样更有弹性。在德国，农民和工业家正在进口更多的氨和其他能源密集型化学品，而不是依赖昂贵的国内生产的投入。研究表明，自2021年年中以来，德国家庭和企业的天然气消费量都有所减少。

Sometimes conservation can be galvanised by regulation. Spanish businesses and shops now go dark after 10pm, and the air-conditioning standards for public and commercial buildings are set at a minimum of 27°C, to encourage Spaniards to go shopping in their t-shirts. Likewise, energy companies can help change behaviour by telling people how much energy they use compared with their neighbours. Such interventions are cheap (though some have the drawback of muffling price signals), and can help defuse the incendiary politics of high prices. Affecting rich and poor alike, they are seen as fair.

有时，监管可以促进保护。现在，西班牙的企业和商店在晚上10点后就会熄灯，公共和商业建筑的空调标准定为最低限度27摄氏度，以鼓励西班牙人穿着T恤去购物。同样，能源公司可以通过告诉人们与邻居相比他们使用了多少能源，从而帮助改变人们的行为。这样的干预措施是不费力的(尽管有些干预手段有抑制价格信号的缺点)，有助于缓和高价格的煽动性政治。无论是富人还是穷人，这些干预措施对他们而言都是公平的，他们都会受其影响。

But governments also need to protect those most in need, notably poor people, for whom energy bills make up a bigger share of household spending. Politicians cannot stop rising energy prices from making economies worse off, but they can determine who bears the brunt of the shock. Support, in the form of rebates on energy bills for the poorest, or even cash bonuses (as recently enacted in Italy), would help the neediest, while still encouraging consumers to conserve energy where they can.

【1】 bear or take the brunt of 在…中首当其冲

但政府也需要保护那些最需要的人，尤其是穷人，因为他们的能源支出占家庭支出的比例更大。政客们无法阻止能源价格的上涨使经济恶化，但他们可以决定谁将首当其冲受到冲击。支持的形式包括为最贫困者的能源账单提供返款，甚至是现金奖金(最近在意大利颁布) ，这将帮助最需要帮助的人，同时仍然鼓励消费者尽可能节约能源。

Targeting is essential to keep the cost in check. According to the imf, some European governments are on course to spend 1.5% of GDP on energy policies by the end of the year. Measures that protect the poorest fifth of the population would cost only 0.4% of GDP; the poorest two-fifths, 0.9%. Trying to buy support by including everyone is a bad use of public money.

确定目标对于控制成本至关重要。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，一些欧洲政府有望在今年年底前将GDP的1.5%用于能源政策。保护最贫穷的五分之一人口的措施只需要GDP的0.4%；保护最穷的五分之二，需要GDP的0.9%。试图通过包括所有人来获得支持是对公共资金的不当使用。

Windfall pitfallWho, then, should pay? The crowd-pleasing choice is the energy companies, which are making out like bandits, but general taxation makes more sense. Windfall taxes on energy producers are undesirable if their fortunes follow the boom and bust of the commodities cycle. That only leads to underinvestment—and the next bout of sky-high prices.

【1】boom-bust 经济大起大落的

那么，谁应该为此买单呢？受大众欢迎的选择是能源公司，它们像强盗一样获得暴利，不过普通税收更有意义。如果能源生产商的财富跟随大宗商品周期的繁荣和萧条，那么对它们征收暴利税是不可取的。这只会导致投资不足和下一轮的极高的价格。