Journal of International Economics 2023年第四期

Journal of International Economics 2023年第四期

Volume 143，July 2023

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The macroeconomic stabilization of tariff shocks: What is the optimal monetary response?

关税冲击的宏观经济稳定:最优货币对策是什么?

Paul R. Bergin, Giancarlo Corsetti

In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with global value chains and firm dynamics, we show that the optimal monetary response is expansionary. It supports activity and producer prices at the expense of aggravating short-run headline inflation---contrary to the prescription of the standard Taylor rule. This holds all the more when the home currency is dominant in pricing of international trade.

在英国退欧和特朗普贸易战之后，各国央行面临着重新考虑货币政策在管理关税上调带来的通胀-衰退影响方面的作用的必要性。利用一个包含全球价值链和企业动态的新凯恩斯模型，我们发现最优货币反应具有扩张性。它支持了经济活动和生产者价格，以加剧短期整体通胀为代价——这与标准泰勒规则的规定相反。当本国货币在国际贸易定价中占据主导地位时，这种情况就更加明显了。

Productivity slowdown and tax havens: Where is measured value creation?

生产率放缓和避税天堂:衡量价值创造的标准在哪里?

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Samuel Delpeuch, Margarita Lopez-Forero

Based on French firm-level data, we evaluate the contribution of the micro-level profit-shifting –through tax haven foreign direct investments– to the aggregate productivity slowdown measured in France. We show that firm measured productivity in France declines over the years following the establishment in a tax haven, with an average estimated drop by 3.5% in apparent labor productivity. To isolate the contribution of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) tax optimization to the decline in productivity, we then exploit the 2006 Cadbury-Schweppes decision of the European Court of Justice limiting the extent to which member States can counter European MNEs' tax planning strategies. We find that multinational groups benefiting from that loosening of the legal constraints do exhibit a lower labor productivity following that ruling. Finally, given these firms' weight, our results imply an annual loss of 5.7% in terms of the aggregate annual labor productivity growth.

On the effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive markets

垄断竞争市场中收入异质性的影响

Sergei Kichko, Pierre M. Picard

Abstract

This paper studies the market and welfare effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive product markets in the context of nonhomothetic preferences. In a closed economy, where richer individuals' expenditures are less sensitive to price change compared to poorer ones', a mean-preserving contraction of income distribution entices firms to charge higher markups, reduce output, and fosters creation of new varieties. General equilibrium effects have a negative impact on poorer individuals and, in specific circumstances, on the whole population. In an open economy with free trade, lower income inequality in one country creates price divergence between trading countries. Lower inequality not only further decreases trade volumes and values but also creates a general equilibrium effect that may negatively affect poor individuals. Finally, general equilibrium effects are shown to be quantitatively nonnegligible.

本文研究了非同质偏好下垄断竞争产品市场中收入异质性的市场效应和福利效应。在一个封闭的经济体中，与穷人相比，富人的支出对价格变化的敏感度较低，收入分配的均数保留收缩诱使企业收取更高的加价，减少产量，并促进新品种的创造。一般均衡效应对较贫穷的个人有负面影响，在特定情况下对全体人口也有负面影响。在自由贸易的开放经济中，一国较低的收入不平等会造成贸易国之间的价格差异。不平等程度的降低不仅会进一步减少贸易额和贸易额，而且还会产生一种可能对穷人产生负面影响的一般均衡效应。最后，一般均衡效应在数量上是不可忽略的。

Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

主权债务应对COVID-19大流行

Huanhuan Zheng

We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sovereign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs—governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules enhance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default risk weaken it. Third, we find that, in response to the same pandemic shock, sovereign spreads increase more in emerging economies than advanced economies though the former borrow less during the pandemic. Finally, further analysis reveals that pegged exchange rate regimes, open capital accounts, and monetary dependence improve emerging economies' borrowing capacity.

Quantum prices

量子价格

Diego Aparicio, Roberto Rigobon

Many retailers practice an extreme form of discrete pricing defined asquantum prices: differentiated products are priced using few and sparse price buckets. To show this, online data was collected for 350,000 products from over 65 fashion retailers in the U.S. and the U.K. This pricing strategy is observed within categories and across categories (i.e., similar or even disparately distinct products like jeans and bags have an identical price), as well as in product introductions, where new products come in at previous price buckets. Normalized indices indicate substantial price clustering after controlling for popular prices, convenient prices, assortment size, or digit endings. Quantum prices have implications for price adjustments through product shares, markdown prices, and for the law-of-one-price. A behavioral model of price salience and recall is discussed.

许多零售商采用一种被定义为量子价格的离散定价的极端形式:差异化产品使用很少且稀疏的价格桶来定价。为了表明这一点，我们从美国和英国超过65家时尚零售商那里收集了35万种产品的在线数据。我们在类别内和类别之间观察到了这种定价策略(即，类似或甚至截然不同的产品，如牛仔裤和包，有相同的价格)，以及在产品介绍中，新产品以以前的价格桶进入。标准化指数表明，在控制了流行价格、方便价格、品种大小或数字结尾后，价格出现了实质性的聚集。量子价格通过产品份额、降价和一价定律对价格调整有影响。讨论了价格显著性与召回的行为模型。