【每天一篇经济学人】Japan's economy 日本的经济（2023年第62
文章来源：《经济学人》Nov 18th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目 Japan's economy 日本的经济
日本能否重新找回经济活力？
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Global investors are giddy about Japan again. Warren Buffett made his first visit to Tokyo in more than a decade this spring; he has built up big holdings in five trading houses that offer exposure to a cross-section of Japan Inc. Last month Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, joined the pilgrimage to Japan’s capital. “History is repeating itself,” he told Kishida Fumio, the prime minister. He likened the moment to Japan’s “economic miracle” of the 1980s. Even disappointing GDP figures released on November 15th will not dent investors’ optimism.
全球投资者再次对日本充满期待。今年春天，沃伦·巴菲特十多年来首次访问东京。他在五家贸易公司中持有大量股份，通过这些公司管中窥豹，了解日本的经济。上个月，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克也加入了前往日本首都的朝圣之旅。他告诉日本首相岸田文雄：“历史正在重演。”他将这一时刻比作日本1980年代的“经济奇迹”。尽管11月15日公布的 GDP 数据令人失望，但这不会削弱投资者的乐观情绪。
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Sceptics would say that the only history repeating itself is outsiders falling for yet another Japanese false dawn. The miracle of the 1980s ended with an asset bubble bursting and the country sliding into decades of deflation, or excessively low inflation, and stagnation. Every ten years or so since then, observers, this newspaper among them, have warmed to a new prime minister, identified promising signs of change and claimed to see the sun peeping over the horizon. Foreign investors flood back. Then a few years later they retreat, cold and disappointed. Is this latest promised dawn any different?
怀疑论者会说，唯一的历史重演是外人又一次相信了日本的虚假曙光。1980年代的奇迹以资产泡沫破裂而告终，日本陷入了数十年的通货紧缩，或极低通货膨胀以及停滞状态。从那时起每隔十年左右，观察家们（包括本报在内）都会对新首相产生好感，找到变革的迹象，并宣称看到了地平线上的太阳。外国投资者蜂拥而至。几年后，他们又失望而归。这次最新的曙光有什么不同吗？
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It really could be. Two external shocks and two internal shifts have coincided to change the landscape for the Japanese economy. The most palpable shock has to do with prices. Whereas most countries have been obsessed with keeping inflation down in recent years, Japan has been hoping it might finally pick up—and stay up. Global supply squeezes and a weak exchange rate have duly done what years of audacious monetary easing could not achieve, and pushed the headline inflation rate over the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Admittedly, that is not the demand-driven inflation that the BoJ would like to see. Even so, it has changed how firms, workers and consumers think about prices and, crucially, wages. A path, albeit a narrow one, has opened to a healthier cycle of wage and consumption growth.
这次可能是真的。两次外部冲击和两次内部变革同时改变了日本经济的格局。最明显的冲击与价格有关。近年来，大多数国家都热衷于控制通货膨胀，但日本却一直希望通胀率更高一点，并保持在高位。全球供应紧缩和汇率疲软确实做到了多年大胆货币宽松政策未能实现的事情，并将通胀率推至日本央行2%的目标之上。诚然，这并不是日本央行希望看到的需求驱动型通胀。即便如此，它还是改变了企业、工人和消费者对价格（尤其是对工资）的看法。一条通往工资和消费增长更健康循环的道路（尽管是一条狭窄的道路）已经开启。
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The other shock is geopolitical. The war in Ukraine and the superpower stand-off have spurred a new wave of investment in critical industries and a reconfiguration of regional supply chains that Japan could benefit from.
另一个冲击来自地缘政治。乌克兰战争以及超级大国之间对峙已经刺激了对重点产业的新一波投资，并导致了地区供应链的重新配置，日本可以从中受益。
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The internal shifts are subtler, but no less important. Corporate-governance reforms that began under a previous prime minister, Abe Shinzo, have become entrenched. Indeed, they have entered a promising new phase, as Japanese institutional investors—and even the Tokyo Stock Exchange—are putting more pressure on big companies to enhance their value.
内部变革更为微妙，但同样重要。在前首相安倍晋三的领导下开始的企业治理改革已经深入人心。事实上，变革已经进入了一个充满希望的新阶段，因为日本机构投资者——甚至东京证券交易所——都在向大公司施加更多压力，督促公司提高价值。
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Another underappreciated part of the story is generational change. At old firms, bosses attached to ways of doing business that worked during the glory days of the 1980s are exiting the scene. Young entrepreneurs want to build a new Japan Inc.
还有一个被低估的变革是代际变化。在老牌企业中，老板们对1980年代辉煌时期行之有效的经营方式恋恋不舍，然而他们正在退出历史舞台。年轻企业家则希望打造全新的日本公司。
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Yet much in the Japanese economy remains unchanged and unchanging. For Japan to make good on the promise of the moment, policymakers, executives and politicians must do more to nurture the green shoots of dynamism. For a start, the BoJ must execute a complex dance in the coming year. It must unwind unorthodox monetary policies that have outlived their usefulness, such as its yield-curve control, without suffocating the nascent inflation. In time the highly indebted government will probably have to find a way to cope with rising interest rates.
然而，日本经济的许多方面仍然没有改变。日本要兑现当下的承诺，政策制定者、高管和政治家就必须采取更多措施来培育经济活力的新生迹象。首先，日本央行必须在未来一年里做出复杂的协调与决策。日本央行必须解除已经失去效用的非正统货币政策，如控制收益率曲线，同时又不能抑制新生的通货膨胀率。随着时间的推移，赤字严重的政府可能不得不想办法应对利率的上升。
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The process of corporate reform must also continue. Japanese firms are now well versed in the forms of good governance, but they need to get better at the substance. Around 40% of companies in the TOPIX 500 trade below book value. In an unstable world corporate leaders must do more than just preserve the status quo. Luckily they have plenty of room for manoeuvre, after years of hoarding cash on their balance-sheets.
企业改革进程也必须继续下去。日本企业现在对良好治理的形式已经了如指掌，但他们需要在实质方面做得更好。东证500指数中约有40%的公司市值低于账面价值。在动荡的世界中，企业领导者必须做的不仅仅是维持现状。幸运的是，经过多年的账面现金储备，他们还有足够的施展空间。
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Mr Kishida has promised to focus on “economy, economy, economy”. Compared with his predecessors, he has spoken more about supporting startups. Yet his latest economic package, announced earlier this month, is heavy on one-off tax cuts and stimulus measures that seem designed to boost his popularity, rather than long-term growth. He could turn words into deeds by revising tax codes to reward risk-taking investors and entrepreneurs and by withdrawing support for zombie incumbents. The prime minister is right to trumpet the need for new-company formation. But he also needs to play his part in clearing away corporate dead wood.
岸田文雄承诺将重点关注“经济、经济、经济”。与前任首相相比，他更多地谈到了支持初创企业。然而，他本月初宣布的最新经济方案主要侧重于一次性减税和刺激措施，这些措施似乎是为了提高他的声望，而不是为了实现长期增长。他可以通过修订税法来奖励敢于冒险的投资者和企业家，撤回对僵尸企业的支持，将言语变为行动。首相大肆宣扬成立新公司的必要性是正确的。但他也需要尽自己的努力清除企业中的累赘。
