环境经济学权威期刊Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2023年

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2023年第1期

 

 

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

 

 

1.Spatial and temporal responses to incentives: An application to wildlife disease management

激励的空间和时间响应:野生动物疾病管理的应用

Lusi Xie, Wiktor Adamowicz, Patrick Lloyd-Smith

When participating in recreation individuals decide on where to go (locations) and when to participate (which time periods), and they respond to changes in external factors (e.g., environmental quality changes, provision of incentives). In examining economic decision-making, economists focus mostly on location choices, thus the behavioral and welfare impacts of the incentives associated with time choices are largely unknown. In this paper, we develop and estimate a flexible econometric model that combines spatial and temporal choices. The model is applied to examine individuals’ location and time choices of their recreation trips in response to extended recreation seasons that are proposed to encourage hunting for wildlife disease management. The data are from an online revealed and stated preference survey of recreational hunters in Alberta, Canada. We find that individuals substitute activities spatially and temporally, take more hunting trips, and gain welfare benefits when they can more flexibly choose the time of activities. Our findings show that increases in time flexibility can be used as an incentive to encourage beneficial outcomes.

当参与娱乐活动时，个体决定去哪里(地点)和何时参与(时间段)，他们对外部因素的变化(如环境质量变化、激励措施的提供)做出反应。在考察经济决策时，经济学家主要关注的是地点选择，因此，与时间选择相关的激励对行为和福利的影响在很大程度上是未知的。在本文中，我们开发和估计了一个灵活的计量经济模型，该模型结合了空间和时间选择。该模型被应用于考察个体在延长的休闲季节中休闲旅行的地点和时间选择，以促进野生动物疾病管理。这些数据来自加拿大阿尔伯塔省一项在线披露和陈述的休闲猎人偏好调查。研究发现，当个体能够更灵活地选择活动时间时，个体会在空间和时间上替代活动，增加狩猎次数，并获得更多的福利收益。我们的研究结果表明，增加时间灵活性可以作为鼓励产生有益结果的激励措施。

 

 

2.Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?

非破坏性地震会动摇抵押贷款机构的风险认知吗?

Minhong Xu, Yilan Xu

This study examines how banks respond to earthquakes that convey seismic risk salience but do not cause damage, i.e., noticeable non-damaging earthquakes (NNDEs). Using evidence from California, we find loans more likely to be denied or sold after increased NNDEs. Banks with fewer assets, more diversified branching markets, or stronger sales capability relied more on securitization to transfer the perceived seismic risk. We show evidence that banks likely learned about the NNDEs through personal experience and local news. The effects of NNDEs persisted up to three years. Meanwhile, the NNDEs only caused moderate and temporary collateral devaluation but did not increase the observable default risk. Thus, banks' responses most likely resulted from the increased risk salience of future damaging earthquakes during the mortgage term. Our findings call for reevaluations of the heuristics in banks' risk-perception updating and have implications for designing more efficient disaster risk-sharing mechanisms in the financial market.

本文研究了银行如何应对具有显著地震风险但不造成损失的地震，即明显的非破坏性地震。根据加州的证据，我们发现，在NNDEs增加后，贷款更有可能被拒绝或出售。资产更少、分支市场更多样化或销售能力更强的银行更多地依赖证券化来转移感知到的地震风险。我们展示的证据表明，银行可能是通过个人经验和当地新闻了解NNDEs的。NNDEs的影响持续了三年之久。同时，NNDEs只造成了适度和暂时的抵押品贬值，但没有增加可观察到的违约风险。因此，银行的反应很可能是由于在抵押贷款期限内未来破坏性地震的风险显著性增加。我们的研究结果要求对银行风险感知更新的启发式进行重新评估，并对在金融市场中设计更有效的灾难风险分担机制具有启示意义。

 

 

3.The mortality impact of fine particulate matter in China: Evidence from trade shocks

细颗粒物在中国的死亡率影响:来自贸易冲击的证据

Yazhen Gong, Shanjun Li, Nicholas J. Sanders, Guang Shi

We use county-level panel data to estimate the long-run effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution on mortality in China. Our causal inference relies on changes in local pollution via wind transport and demand shocks of Chinese products from export destinations amid the global economic crisis during the late 2000s. We find an economically and statistically significant impact of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and the effect is the largest for those 65 years and older. Using the substantial variation in pollution levels both across time and space in China, we provide evidence of a concave dose-response function, with diminishing marginal mortality impacts of pollution at levels beyond those in developed nations.

本文利用县域面板数据估计了细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染对中国人口死亡率的长期影响。我们的因果推断依赖于2000年代末全球经济危机期间风力运输导致的当地污染变化和中国产品出口目的地的需求冲击。我们发现，长期暴露在PM2.5中对心血管和唿吸系统死亡率有经济和统计上的显著影响，对65岁及以上的人影响最大。利用中国污染水平在时间和空间上的显著变化，我们提供了一个凹剂量-反应函数的证据，表明污染水平的边际死亡率影响在发达国家以外的水平上呈递减趋势。

 

 

4.Policy evaluation of waste pricing programs using heterogeneous causal effect estimation

利用异质因果效应估计进行废物定价方案的政策评估

Marica Valente

Using machine learning methods in a quasi-experimental setting, I study the heterogeneous effects of introducing waste prices – unit prices on household unsorted waste disposal – on waste demands and municipal costs. Using a unique panel of Italian municipalities with large variation in prices and observables, I show that waste demands are nonlinear. I find evidence of constant elasticities at low prices, and increasing elasticities at high prices driven by income effects and waste habits before policy. The policy reduces waste management costs in all municipalities after three years of adoption, when prices cause significant reductions in total waste.

在准实验环境下，本文利用机器学习方法研究了引入垃圾价格(家庭未分类垃圾处理的单位价格)对垃圾需求和城市成本的异质性影响。通过对价格和可观测值差异较大的意大利城市的一个独特面板，我表明，废物需求是非线性的。我发现了在低价格时弹性不变，在高价格时弹性增加的证据，这是由收入效应和政策前的浪费习惯驱动的。该政策在实施三年后降低了所有城市的废物管理成本，当价格导致废物总量大幅减少时。

 

 

5.International climate aid and trade

国际气候援助和贸易

Basak Bayramoglu, Jean-François Jacques, Clément Nedoncelle, Lucille Neumann-Noel

Foreign aid allocation by donor countries to developing economies is known to be motivated by the donor country’s bilateral trade interests. Does this apply also to bilateral climate aid? In this paper, we combine theoretical and empirical analyses to investigate how bilateral trade affects donor countries’ allocations of bilateral climate aid. Our theoretical analysis develops a simple model to support our hypothesis that bilateral trade has a positive impact on climate aid transfers. The model highlights the terms-of-trade and positive income effects of climate aid, and predicts a positive relationship between donor countries’ exports to and imports from recipient countries and their climate aid transfers. The empirical analysis is based on bilateral climate aid data for 2002 to 2017. We employ fixed effects and instrumental variable-2 stage least square estimations (IV-2SLS) with a shift-share instrument to overcome the endogeneity of trade. Our empirical results show that donors’ exports have a significant, robust, positive effect on climate aid transfers.

众所周知，援助国对发展中经济体的对外援助分配是受援助国双边贸易利益驱动的。这也适用于双边气候援助吗?本文将理论分析与实证分析相结合，考察了双边贸易对援助国双边气候援助分配的影响。我们的理论分析开发了一个简单的模型来支持我们的假设，即双边贸易对气候援助转移具有积极影响。该模型强调了气候援助的贸易条件和积极收入效应，并预测了援助国对受援国的出口和进口与其气候援助转移之间的积极关系。实证分析基于2002—2017年的双边气候援助数据。本文采用固定效应和工具变量二阶段最小二乘估计(IV-2SLS)以及偏离-份额工具来克服贸易的内生性问题。我们的实证结果表明，援助国的出口对气候援助转移具有显著的、强劲的积极影响。

 

 

6.Quantifying COVID-19’s silver lining: Avoided deaths from air quality improvements in Bogotá

量化COVID-19的一线希望：Bogotá避免了空气质量改善导致的死亡

Allen Blackman, Jorge A. Bonilla, Laura Villalobos

In cities around the world, COVID-19 lockdowns have significantly improved outdoor air quality. Even if only temporary, these improvements could have longer-lasting effects by making chronic air pollution more salient and boosting political pressure for change. To that end, it is important to develop objective estimates of both the air quality improvements associated with lockdowns and the benefits they generate. We use panel data econometric models to estimate the effect of Bogotá’s 16-month lockdown on PM2.5 and NO2 pollution, epidemiological models to simulate the effect of reductions in these pollutants on long- and short-term mortality, and benefit transfer methods to value the avoided mortality. We find that on average, Bogotá’s lockdown cut PM2.5 pollution by 15% and NO2 pollution by 21%. However, the magnitude of these effects varied considerably over time and across the city's neighborhoods. Equivalent permanent reductions in these pollutants would reduce long-term premature deaths from air pollution by 23% each year, a benefit valued at $1 billion annually. Finally, we estimate that if they occurred ceteris paribus, the temporary reductions in pollutant concentrations in 2020–2021 due to Bogotá’s lockdown would have cut short-term deaths from air pollution by 19%, a benefit valued at $244 million.

在世界各地的城市，COVID-19封锁显着改善了室外空气质量。即使只是暂时的，这些改善也可能产生更持久的影响，因为这将使长期的空气污染问题更加突出，并加大要求改革的政治压力。为此，重要的是要对封锁带来的空气质量改善及其带来的好处进行客观估计。我们使用面板数据计量经济学模型来估计Bogotá 16个月封锁对PM2.5和NO2污染的影响，使用流行病学模型来模拟这些污染物的减少对长期和短期死亡率的影响，并使用利益转移方法来评估避免的死亡率。我们发现，Bogotá的封锁平均减少了15%的PM2.5污染和21%的NO2污染。然而，这些影响的程度随着时间的推移和城市社区的差异很大。这些污染物的等量永久减少将使因空气污染造成的长期过早死亡人数每年减少23%，每年可带来价值10亿美元的效益。最后，我们估计，如果它们发生在其他条件不变的情况下，由于Bogotá的封锁，2020-2021年污染物浓度的暂时下降将使空气污染造成的短期死亡减少19%，价值2.44亿美元。

 

 

7.Tax incentives, environmental regulation and firms’ emission reduction strategies: Evidence from China

税收优惠、环境规制与企业减排策略:来自中国的证据

Yu Qi, Jianshun Zhang, Jianwei Chen

Policy interaction is an important way to deal with increasingly complex environmental problems. This paper examines the investment-related tax cuts and the policy interaction with environmental regulation on firms' emission reduction strategies. Taking China's value-added tax (VAT) reform as a quasi-natural experiment and considering the interaction with the emission reduction target policy, our difference-in-differences estimation shows that: the average effect of the VAT reform reduces firms' sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission intensity by 16.6%, due to the adoption of emissions reduction strategies in the production processes; the interaction effect between the VAT reform and environmental regulation incentivizes firms to additionally reduce SO2 emission intensity, due to the adoption of both production processes and end-of-pipe reduction strategies. Our findings are more evident for firms with tight financial constraints. Overall, this paper reveals the micro-mechanisms of how the tax policies incentivize firms to choose emission reduction strategies and highlights the importance of the interaction effects between environmental and non-environmental policies, thus providing implications for the policy mix of environmental regulation and tax-cut incentives to promote pollution reduction and improve business performance.

政策互动是应对日益复杂的环境问题的重要途径。本文研究了投资相关减税政策以及与环境规制的政策互动对企业减排战略的影响。将增值税转型作为一个准自然实验，并考虑到与减排目标政策的交互作用，我们的双重差分估计结果表明:增值税转型平均降低了企业16.6%的二氧化硫排放强度，这主要是由于企业在生产过程中采取了减排策略;增值税转型与环境规制的交互作用激励企业通过同时采用生产流程和减少管道末端排放策略来额外降低SO2排放强度。我们的发现在融资约束较紧的企业中更为明显。总体而言，本文揭示了税收政策激励企业选择减排战略的微观机制，凸显了环境政策与非环境政策交互效应的重要性，为环境规制与减税激励的政策组合促进污染减排和企业绩效提升提供了启示。

 

 

 

8.First lead, now no bed? The unintended impacts of lead abatement laws on eviction

《铅减排法》对驱逐的意外影响

Luke Fesko

Lead paint in old houses is the leading cause of lead poisoning in children under 6 today. To combat this problem, several states have passed lead abatement laws, forcing landlords to remove lead in the homes they rent if tenants have children under the age of 6. However, these laws have unintended consequences, causing landlords to evict tenants rather than abate lead. I use a difference-in-differences approach while employing various model specifications with various fixed effects and sets of controls to examine the impact of Ohio’s 2003 lead abatement law on eviction rates. Using newly collected data from the Eviction Lab at Princeton University, I find that the passage of Ohio’s lead abatement law sharply increased targeted evictions. Due to the law’s passage, the average census district in Ohio faced an increased eviction rate of roughly 0.457 points, corresponding to an additional 13.93 evictions a year. These impacts are highly statistically significant, sizeable, and economically meaningful, indicating that policy makers should incorporate distributional consequences when designing future lead abatement laws in order to avoid unintended consequences and ensure equitable outcomes.

如今，老房子里的含铅涂料是导致6岁以下儿童铅中毒的主要原因。为了解决这个问题，几个州已经通过了减少铅含量的法律，强制房东如果租客有6岁以下的孩子，就必须在他们出租的房子里去除铅。然而，这些法律产生了意想不到的后果，导致房东驱逐租户，而不是减少铅。我使用了一种差异中的差异方法，同时采用了各种模型规范，具有各种固定效应和控制集，以检查俄亥俄州2003年的铅减排法对驱逐率的影响。利用普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)驱逐实验室(Eviction Lab)最新收集的数据，我发现俄亥俄州减少铅排放法的通过大幅增加了有针对性的驱逐。由于该法律的通过，俄亥俄州人口普查区的平均驱逐率增加了大约0.457个点，相当于每年增加13.93个驱逐事件。这些影响在统计上具有高度显著性、可观性和经济意义，表明决策者在设计未来的铅减排法律时应考虑分配后果，以避免意外后果并确保公平的结果。

 

 

9.Cross-border environmental regulation and firm labor demand

跨境环境监管与企业劳动力需求

Pavel Chakraborty, Anindya S. Chakrabarti, Chirantan Chatterjee

In 1994, due to environmental concerns, Germany banned a chemical called ‘Azo-dyes’, a primary input for the leather and textiles firms in India (a key exporter). Exploiting this as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine the effects of this cross-border regulatory change on labor compensation, particularly managerial, for both Indian upstream (dye-producing) and downstream (leather and textile) firms. We find that the regulation increased compensation of managers by 1.3%–18% in dye-producing firms compared to other chemical firms. This is due to the combination of changes such as investing in R&D, product churning, import of high-quality intermediates, due to the ban, which led to this change in within-firm labor composition. This increase in overall compensation is driven only by fixed component (wages), consistent with the effects of a long-run shock. We find no such effects for downstream firms. We believe, our study is one of the first to show that just like tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) can also significantly affect within-firm labor composition.

1994年，出于对环境的考虑，德国禁止了一种名为“偶氮染料”的化学物质，这种化学物质是印度(主要出口国)皮革和纺织品公司的主要原料。利用这一准自然实验，我们考察了这种跨境监管变化对印度上游(染料生产)和下游(皮革和纺织)企业的劳动补偿，特别是管理方面的影响。我们发现，与其他化工企业相比，该法规使染料生产企业的经理薪酬提高了1.3%-18%。这是由于禁令导致的一系列变化，如研发投资、产品生产、高质量中间体进口等，导致了企业内部劳动力构成的变化。整体薪酬的增长仅由固定成分(工资)推动，与长期冲击的影响一致。我们发现下游企业没有这种影响。我们相信，我们的研究是第一个表明与关税一样，非关税壁垒(NTBs)也可以显著影响企业内部劳动力构成的研究之一。

 

 

10.Is environmental regulation the answer to pollution problems in urbanizing economies?

环境监管是城市化经济体中污染问题的答案吗?

JunJie Wu, Kathleen Segerson, Chunhua Wang

This paper seeks to better understand the persistent environmental problems in urbanizing economies. We examine the effectiveness of environmental policy in an economy with agglomeration economies and endogenous firm relocation and entry/exit. We show that, although environmental regulation is effective in the short run, in the presence of agglomeration economies, spatial relocation of firms in response to environmental regulation can undermine the effectiveness of regulations, rendering them less effective or even ineffective. In fact, we show that regulation might even be counter-productive, i.e., exacerbate environmental problems, at certain stages of development. We present initial empirical evidence in the context of water pollution in China that demonstrates the importance of agglomeration economies in determining the impacts of environmental regulation.

本文旨在更好地理解城市化经济中持续存在的环境问题。我们考察了具有集聚经济和内生企业迁移和进入/退出的经济体中环境政策的有效性。我们的研究表明，尽管环境监管在短期内是有效的，但在集聚经济存在的情况下，企业为应对环境监管而进行的空间转移可能会破坏监管的有效性，使其效率降低甚至无效。事实上，我们的研究表明，在发展的某些阶段，监管甚至可能适得其反，即加剧环境问题。我们在中国水污染的背景下提出了初步的经验证据，证明了集聚经济在确定环境监管影响方面的重要性。

 

 

11.Optimal pricing for carbon dioxide removal under inter-regional leakage

区域间渗漏下二氧化碳去除的最优定价

Max Franks, Matthias Kalkuhl, Kai Lessmann

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.

二氧化碳去除(CDR)将大气中的碳转移到地质或陆地上的碳汇。在最优环境下，CDR的最佳使用是通过等同于最优碳税和边际损害的移除补贴来实现的。当不存在全球碳价格，而是某个国家政府实施单边气候政策时，我们得出了CDR补贴和碳税的次优政策规则。我们发现最优碳税不同于最优CDR补贴，因为碳泄漏和平衡的资源交易效应。首先，由于化石资源市场的供给侧泄漏较低，最佳去除补贴往往大于碳税。其次，净碳出口国加剧了这一楔形，增加了其碳资源生产国的生产者剩余，这意味着更大的减排补贴。第三，当边际环境损害很小时，净碳进口国可能会将其排放补贴设定在甚至低于碳税的水平，以从碳出口国那里获得适当的生产者剩余。

 

 

12.National expenditures on local amenities

国家在地方设施上的支出

David S. Bieri, Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Jaren C. Pope

We develop a framework for estimating Americans’ implicit expenditures on spatially varying nonmarket amenities. We focus on location-specific factors that affect the quality of life but are not formally traded. Examples include climate, geography, pollution, local public goods, and transportation infrastructure. Households pay for residential access to these amenities indirectly, through housing prices, wages and property taxes. We construct a database of 75 amenities, match it to 5 million households’ location choices, and use hedonic methods to estimate their total amenity expenditures. Our benchmark estimate for the year 2000 is $562 billion--equivalent to 8% of Americans’ personal consumption expenditures.

我们开发了一个框架，用于估计美国人在空间变化的非市场设施上的隐性支出。我们专注于影响生活质量的特定地点因素，但没有正式交易。例如气候、地理、污染、当地公共产品和交通基础设施。家庭通过房价、工资和财产税等间接方式为享受这些便利设施而付费。我们构建了一个包含75个便利设施的数据库，将其与500万个家庭的地点选择相匹配，并使用享乐学方法估算他们的总便利设施支出。我们对2000年的基准估计是5620亿美元——相当于美国人个人消费支出的8%。