Monkeypox medicines 猴痘药物（2022年第78期）

Monkeypox isn’t covid-19. Since May the viral disease has infected 35,000 people in 92 countries, less than one-tenth as many as covid infects in a day. Though symptoms, including fever, headaches, muscle aches and a pus-filled rash, can be nasty, it seldom causes death. Critically, in contrast to covid, both a vaccine and a treatment predate the current epidemic. Their makers, two smallish drug companies, are struggling to keep up with demand. 

猴痘不是新冠。自5月以来，这种病毒性疾病已经在92个国家感染了3.5万人，这一数字不到新冠肺炎一天感染人数的十分之一。其症状包括发烧、头痛、肌肉疼痛和脓疹，这虽然令人难受，但猴痘很少导致死亡。关键是，与新冠相比，疫苗和治疗都早于当前的疫情。疫苗的制造商是两家相当小的制药公司，他们正努力满足需求。

The jab is made by Bavarian Nordic, a Danish firm founded in 1994 to commercialise a clever replacement, developed by a researcher in Bavaria, to the old smallpox vaccine (monkeypox and smallpox are related viruses). Before the latest outbreak, only six countries, including America, had ordered the drug. In the past four months that number has swelled to 70, and counting. “We were definitely not prepared for this,” admits its finance chief, Henrik Juuel. The firm is working around the clock to add capacity and expand its 800-strong workforce. Annual revenue is forecast to more than double this year, to $380m. 

这种疫苗是由Bavarian Nordic公司生产的，这是一家成立于1994年的丹麦公司，其目的是将巴伐利亚的一名研究人员开发的一种替代旧天花疫苗(猴痘和天花是相关的病毒)商业化。在最近爆发之前，只有包括美国在内的6个国家订购了该药。在过去的四个月里，这个数字已经膨胀到70个，而且还在增加。该公司的财务总监Henrik Juuel承认:“我们尚未 为此做好准备。”该公司正夜以继日地增加产能，扩大其800多名员工的规模。该公司今年的年收入预计将增长逾一倍，达到3.8亿美元。

Success has brought in resources to finance its other bets. Bavarian Nordic has just begun a phase-three clinical trial of a vaccine against rsv, a flu-like virus that kills as many elderly and infants as influenza. At a cost of up to $300m, it is a “heavy investment”, says Mr Juuel; the firm expects to lose between $13m and $40m this year as a result. But the potential prize is large. No rsv jab exists and the global market for one could, analysts reckon, be as big as $5bn-10bn a year. 

成功为它的其他选择带来了资金。Bavarian Nordic公司刚刚开始了针对rsv疫苗的三期临床试验，rsv是一种类似流感的病毒，与流感一样会导致很多老人和婴儿死亡。Juuel先生说，其成本高达3亿美元，这是一项“重大投资”；因此，该公司预计今年将亏损1300万至4000万美元。但其潜在的回报是巨大的。目前还不存在rsv疫苗，而分析师们估计，全球rsv疫苗的市场规模可能高达每年50亿至100亿美元。

Across the Atlantic siga Technologies hopes to emulate Bavarian Nordic. The self-styled maker of “human bioarmour” produces tpoxx, an oral capsule used to treat some symptoms of smallpox and some related viruses. From January to July siga shipped $60m-worth of tpoxx, which regulators in Britain and the eu have approved for use against monkeypox (as well as smallpox and cowpox), up from $10m in the same period last year. Orders could swell once America’s Food and Drug Administration follows suit; it accepted tpoxx for smallpox in 2018. 

大西洋彼岸siga Technologies公司希望效仿Bavarian Nordic公司。自称为“人类生物盔甲”制造商的公司生产了TPOXX药物，这是一种口服胶囊，用于治疗天花和一些相关病毒的一些症状。从1月到7月，siga出口了价值6000万美元的tpoxx，英国和欧盟的监管机构已批准将其用于治疗猴痘(以及天花和牛痘)，而去年同期为1000万美元。一旦美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）批准，其订单可能会激增；FDA在2018年批准其用于治疗天花。

As monkeypox hit the headlines over the summer, investors piled in. The market value of Bavarian Nordic ballooned from $1.4bn in early May to nearly $4bn in August. siga’s soared four-fold, to almost $2bn. Both have fallen back since, by about two-fifths and a half, respectively, as concerns about the next pandemic receded. But they remain twice as valuable, more or less, as they were in the spring. Not so poxy anymore.

随着猴痘成为今夏的头条新闻，投资者蜂拥而至。Bavarian Nordic公司的市值从5月初的14亿美元飙升至8月份的近40亿美元。Siga股价飙升4倍，达到近20亿美元。此后，随着人们对下一次大流行的担忧消退，其市值分别下降了约五分之二和一半。但它们的市值仍然是春天时的两倍，或多或少。不再那么没有价值了。