The Economist - global housing
2022-11-21 19:47 作者:爱睡懒觉的Nick船长 | 我要投稿

Global housing braced for a storm
Related words:
- loom = emerge = appear 浮现 e.g. The prospect of war loomed large.
- set someone back = cost someone a large amount of money 花费某人一大笔钱 e.g. Our vacation set us back over $3000.
- benchmark rate 基准利率
- net household wealth 家庭净财富
- get out of hand 失控 e.g. Values have got so out of hand that they may be sensitive to even modest rises in interest rates.
- housing juggernaut 房地产巨头
- variable-rate mortgages 浮动利率
- fixed mortagages 固定利率
- tax break 减免税收
- sublet 转租
- outright owner 只觉得房屋拥有者
- home and dry 安然无恙
- nearing home-buying years 接近买房年龄
- hotspots 热点地区
- buy houses with taking on debt 贷款买房
- indebtedness 债务
- loan-to-income 贷款收入比例
- subprime-lending crisis 次贷危机
Vocabulary:
- Brace for sth 为…做准备 e.g. New England is bracing for a winter storm. 另一个常见的用法:Brace oneself for sth e.g. They brace themselves for the worst.
- be in full swing 全面展开,全力进行
- brew v 将要形成,一般用于bad situation, e.g. A storm was brewing in the distance.
- outright 直接地
- prevalence n 流行,盛行,普遍 e.g.the prevalence of smoking among teenagers
- the bulk of 主体,大部分 e.g. make up the bulk of existing loans.
- towering 高耸的 towering mortatge repayments
- ravenous 贪婪的 Growing boys have ravenous appetites.
- fare 表现
- one way or another 无论如何
- tight 严格 lending standard is tighter.
- came into sharp focus 更加突出
Nice sentence:
- 一些数字表述的用法:
- House prices in Canada have soared by 26% since the start of the pandemic.
- The average property in New Zealand could set you back more than $640,000, an increase of nearly 46% since 2009.
- Inflation in Britain could exceed 10% later this year, raised its policy rate for the fourth time, to 1%.
- The federal funds rate to rise above 3% by early 2023, more than triple its current level.
- In Australia, homeowners' average debt as a share of income has swollen to 150%.
- A 2008-style global property cash is unlikely. Property in America, which bore the brunt of the fallout from the subprime-lending crisis, appears better insulated than other economic bodies. Becasue borrowers and lenders there have become more cautious, and lending standards are tighter. On the other hand, one floor for house prices is that demand still vastly outstrips supply. Strong job markets, hordes of millenials nearing home-buying years and a shift to remote working have all increased the demand for more living space. And new properties remain scarce, which will sustain competition for homes and help keep prices high.
- (为什么加息会使得房产价格下落)The rising cost of money could make homeowners' existing debt burdens difficult to manage by increasing their repayments while putting off some prospective buyers. If that hit to demand is big enough, prices could start to fall.
- (货币收紧的影响)As the era of ultra-cheap money comes to an end, then demand for housing is not about to collapse. Yet one way or anther, renters and homeoweners will face an intensifying squeeze.
- Three factors will help determine whether the housing juggernaut simply slow, or comes crashing to a halt: the extent to which homeowners have mortgages, (家庭房屋房贷占比); the prevalence of variable-rate mortgages(浮动利率占比); and the amount of debt taken on by households(家庭债务占比).
- (房屋资产占银行债务比例越高,影响就越大)Consider first the share of mortage-holders in an economy. The fewer homeowners who own their properties outright, the greater the impact of a rate rise is likely to be. In particular, a relaxation of lending standards in response to the Covid-19 pandemic turbocharged borrowing. In Sweden, tax breaks(免税) for homeowners have further fuelled the rush to secure mortgages, while a dysfunctional rental market characterised overpriced and illegal subletting(以高价格和非法转租为标志的失灵的租赁市场), has pushed more tenants into home ownership. All this puts banks in a tricky position where housing loans make up more than a third of banks' total assets. Sharp falls in house prices could trigger losses.
- The structure of mortgage debt-the second factor-matters. Rising interest rates will be felt almost instantly by borrowers on variable rates-which fluctuate with changes in policy rates-for those on fixed rates, the pain will be delayed. In New Zealand fixed rate mortgages make up the bulk of existing loans, but nearly three fifths are fixed for less than a year. In such countries, mortages rates may often be fixed, but for a period that is too short to protect borrowers from the interest-rate storm.
- Resilience to rising rates will also depend on the amount of debt taken on by households-our third factor. High indebtedness came into sharp focus during the global financial crisis. As property prices fell, households with towering mortage repayments relative to their mortage repayments relative to their incomes found themselves squeezed. In Australia, homeowners' average debt as a share of income has swollen to 150%. Households will face heftier monthly repayments just as soaring food and energy costs eat into their incomes.