经济学人2019.7.6/Sumo-sized challenge

Sumo-sized challenge
相扑级挑战
Japanese people need to put more aside for retirement
日本人需要为退休存更多的钱
But they are loth to take greater risks in search for higher returns
但是他们不愿意冒更大的风险来寻求更高的回报
词汇
loth/不愿意的(等于loath);勉强的;憎恶的

Jul 4th 2019 | TOKYO
LAST MONTH Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA), the financial-industry regulator, lobbed a grenade into a fractious debate on how to support the world’s oldest population in retirement. The typical elderly couple, it warned, will need to top up their public pensions by a whopping ¥20m ($185,000). The furore that followed put Taro Aso, the finance minister, on the back foot. Japan’s pension system “will never collapse”, he insisted.
上个月,日本金融产业监管机构金融厅(FSA)就如何支持世界上年龄最大的退休人口展开了一场激烈的辩论。它警告说,典型的老年夫妇将需要增加高达2000万日元(18.5万美元)的公共养老金。随之而来的民愤让日本财政大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)处于下风。他坚称,日本的养老金体系“永远不会崩溃”。
词汇
Grenade/手榴弹;灭火弹
Fractious/易怒的;倔强的
Whopping/巨大的;天大的
Furore/勃然大怒;公愤,公众的骚动,群情激愤
His attempt at reassurance was widely mocked. A cartoon in a weekly magazine depicted him helping a Buddhist deity dispatch souls to financial heaven or hell. The implication was that, aged 78 and one of Japan’s richest politicians, he personally did not risk ending up in penury.
他试图消除疑虑的努力遭到了广泛的嘲笑。一家周刊刊登的一幅漫画描绘了他帮助一位佛教神灵将灵魂送入金融天堂或地狱。言下之意是,作为日本最富有的政治家之一,78岁的他本人并没有终于穷困的危机。
词汇
Deity/神;女神
Dispatch/派遣,发送
Penury/贫困;贫穷
And yet the gloomy forecast should have come as no surprise. Government mandarins have fretted over Japan’s pension system for years. The Nikkei Shimbun, a staid business newspaper, warned last year of “disaster” unless it was reformed. The system was built on the expectation that people would live until their 70s or 80s, says Naoyuki Yoshino of the Asian Development Bank Institute, a think-tank. But more than half of Japanese babies today can expect to live to over 100. A quarter of all 60-year-olds will still be alive in 35 years, estimates the government.
然而,悲观的预测本应不足为奇。多年来,政府官员一直对日本的养老金制度感到担忧。保守的商业报纸《日本经济新闻》(Nikkei Shimbun)去年警告称,除非进行改革,否则将是一场“灾难”。智库亚洲开发银行研究所的吉野直之(Naoyuki Yoshino)表示,该体系的建立是基于人们能活到七八十岁的预期。但如今超过一半的日本婴儿有望活到100岁以上。政府估计,所有60岁老人中有四分之一的人在35年后仍将健在。
词汇
Mandarin/ 政界要员;满清官吏;
Fretted/焦躁的;腐蚀的
All 20- to 59-year-olds in work must pay a flat premium of ¥16,410 into the national pension fund every month. Those who do so for 40 years get a full pension, currently ¥780,100 a year. Corporate and government workers also make payments into supplementary schemes. But the system is imbalanced, with shrinking numbers paying in and growing numbers drawing out. Japan already has more than 35m people aged over 65—28% of the population. The share is projected to reach a third by 2050.
所有20至59岁的在职人员每月必须向国家养老基金缴纳16410日元的固定保费。这样做40年的人可以得到全额养老金,目前是每年780,100日元。企业和政府工作人员也通过补充计划支付薪酬。但是这个系统是不平衡的,越来越多的人退出,越来越少的人支付。日本已经有超过3500万65以上的人口——这在日本总人口数中占28%。预计到2050年,这一比例将达到三分之一。
词汇
Premium/保险费
Japan’s pensions are comparatively stingy, with several countries spending more despite their younger populations (see chart). A couple in their 60s on the basic state pension would be ¥50,000 short each month compared with average household expenditure, says the FSA. A survey by the welfare ministry published on July 2nd found that half of all retired people had no income beyond their pension.
日本的养老金相对吝啬,尽管一些国家的人口更年轻,但支出却更多(见图表)。日本金融厅表示,与家庭平均支出相比,一对60多岁的夫妇每月的基本养老金将减少5万日元。7月2日,日本福利部公布的一项调查显示,半数的退休人员除了养老金外没有其他收入。

The system is due to get even stingier, with spending as a share of GDP planned to stay almost static as the population ages. The FSA’s calculation was supposed to prod people into better retirement planning. But that would mean taking greater risks, says Noriyuki Takayama of the Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Ageing, a think-tank—and Japanese people are highly risk-averse. The bulk of Japan’s ¥1.83 quadrillion in household financial assets is held in post offices or bank accounts that pay zero interest. Most of it is owned by people who remember the puncturing of Japan’s asset bubble a generation ago.
随着人口老龄化,消费占GDP的比例几乎保持不变,这一体系将变得更加吝啬。日本金融厅的计算本应促使人们更好地规划退休计划。但是这意味着要冒更大的风险,智库养老与老龄化政策研究所的Noriyuki Takayama说,日本人非常厌恶风险。日本1.83万亿日元的家庭金融资产中,大部分都存在邮局或银行账户,这些账户的利息为零。其中大部分资产为那些还记得上一代人戳破日本资产泡沫的人所有。
词汇
Prod/ 刺,戳;刺激,督促
risk-averse/风险规避的;不愿承担风险的
Getting them to diversify is both a challenge and a “business opportunity,” says Toshihide Endo, the FSA’s director, given that the net assets of elderly households have been almost flat for 20 years. “This implies that wealth formation is failing to keep pace with increased longevity.”
日本金融厅厅长远藤敏藏(Toshihide Endo)表示,考虑到20年来老年家庭的净资产几乎持平,让他们实现多元化既是一项挑战,也是一个“商业机遇”。“这意味着财富的形成赶不上寿命的增长。”
词汇
Longevity/长寿,长命;寿命
Mr Yoshino draws an unflattering comparison with America, where major asset classes have increased in value far faster than in Japan. But the fear of losses deters many Japanese investors. Nerves have been jangled by a record loss in the most recent quarter at the Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest. Five years ago Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, pressed its managers into shifting about half its assets into equities and slashing its holdings of domestic bonds.
吉野康夫将其与美国作了一个毫不恭维的比较,美国的主要资产类别的价值增长速度远远快于日本。但对亏损的担忧令许多日本投资者望而却步。全球最大的养老投资基金政府最近一个季度创纪录的亏损,令投资者神经紧张。五年前,日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)敦促其基金经理将大约一半的资产转换为股票,并大幅减持日本国内债券。
词汇
Unflattering/耿直的;有损形象的;不奉承的
Deter/制止,阻止;使打消念头
Jangle/使发出刺耳声,发出叮当声;刺激,烦扰;争论;闲聊
Equity/股票;权益;股本;公平
Japan is a harbinger of changes to come elsewhere. The World Bank forecasts a shortfall in retirement savings in big countries of about $400trn dollars by 2050. More adventurous investment may be part of the solution. Japan’s government also wants to raise the retirement age from 65 to 70. “The very easy answer is that everyone should keep working as long as possible,” says Mr Yoshino. But with a general election just weeks away, Mr Abe may not have felt able to point that out.
日本是其他地方变革的先兆。世界银行(World Bank)预测,到2050年,大国的退休储蓄缺口约为4000万亿美元。更大胆的投资可能是解决方案的一部分。日本政府还希望将退休年龄从65岁提高到70岁。吉野康夫表示:“最简单的答案是,每个人都应该尽可能长时间地工作。”但由于距离大选只有几周时间,安倍可能觉得没有能力指出这一点。
词汇
Harbinger/先驱;前兆;