经济学权威期刊Journal of Economic Perspectives 2023年第1期
Journal of Economic Perspectives 2023年第1期
Vol. 37 No. 1 Winter 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges
经济制裁:演变、后果和挑战
T. Clifton Morgan, Constantinos Syropoulos and Yoto V. Yotov
Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, we examine the evolution of economic sanctions in the post-World War II era and reflect on the lessons that could be drawn from their features and patterns of use. We observe that, during this time, there has been a remarkable increase in the use of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy. We classify this period into four 'eras' and discuss, in this context, how the evolution of sanctions may be linked to salient features of the contemporaneous international political and economic orders. Our review of the related literatures in economics and political science suggests, among other things, that our understanding of sanction processes could be significantly advanced by marrying these perspectives. We conclude by identifying several questions and challenges, and by discussing how interdisciplinary research could address them.
我们以跨学科的视角，研究了第二次世界大战后经济制裁的演变，并反思了可以从其特点和使用模式中汲取的教训。我们注意到，在这段时间内，利用制裁作为外交政策工具的情况显著增加。我们将这一时期分为四个“时代”，并在此背景下讨论制裁的演变如何与同时代国际政治和经济秩序的显著特征联系起来。我们对经济学和政治学相关文献的回顾表明，通过将这些观点结合起来，我们对制裁过程的理解可能会大大提高。最后，我们确定了几个问题和挑战，并讨论了跨学科研究如何解决这些问题。
2.Financial Sanctions, SWIFT, and the Architecture of the International Payment System
金融制裁、SWIFT和国际支付系统架构
Marco Cipriani, Linda S. Goldberg and Gabriele La Spada
Financial sanctions, alongside economic sanctions, are components of the toolkit used by governments as part of international diplomacy. The use of sanctions, especially financial, has increased over the last 70 years. Financial sanctions have been particularly important whenever the goals of the sanctioning countries were related to democracy and human rights. Financial sanctions restrict entities—countries, businesses, or even individuals—from purchasing or selling financial assets, or from accessing custodial or other financial services. They can be imposed on a sanctioned entity's ability to access the infrastructures that are in place to execute international payments, irrespective of whether such payments underpin financial or real activity. This article explains how financial sanctions can be designed to limit access to the international payment system and, in particular, the SWIFT network, and provides some recent examples.
金融制裁和经济制裁都是各国政府作为国际外交手段的组成部分。过去70年来，制裁，特别是金融制裁的使用有所增加。每当制裁国家的目标涉及民主和人权时，金融制裁就特别重要。金融制裁限制实体(国家、企业甚至个人)购买或出售金融资产，或获得托管或其他金融服务。制裁可以针对一个受制裁实体使用为执行国际支付而设立的基础设施的能力，而不管这些支付是支撑金融活动还是实际活动。本文解释了如何设计金融制裁来限制使用国际支付系统，特别是SWIFT网络，并提供了一些最近的例子。
3.Monetary Policy When the Central Bank Shapes Financial-Market Sentiment
Anil K Kashyap and Jeremy C. Stein
Recent research has found that monetary policy works in part by influencing the risk premiums on both traded financial-market securities and intermediated loans. Research has also shown that when risk premiums are compressed, there is an increased likelihood of a reversal that damages the credit-supply mechanism and the real economy. Together these effects create an intertemporal tradeoff for monetary policy, as stimulating the economy today can sow the seeds of a future downturn that might be difficult to offset. We draw out some implications of this tradeoff for the conduct of monetary policy.
最近的研究发现，货币政策在一定程度上是通过影响交易金融市场证券和中介贷款的风险溢价来发挥作用的。研究还表明，当风险溢价被压缩时，出现逆转的可能性就会增加，从而损害信贷供应机制和实体经济。这些影响加在一起，造成了货币政策的跨期权衡，因为今天刺激经济可能会播下未来可能难以抵消的衰退的种子。我们得出了这种权衡对货币政策实施的一些影响。
5.Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
风险偏好与货币政策的风险承担渠道
Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke and Eric Milstein
Monetary policy affects financial markets and the broader economy in part by changing the risk appetite of investors. This article provides new evidence for this so-called risk-taking channel of monetary policy by revisiting and extending event-study analysis of Federal Open Market Committee announcements. We document significant effects of unexpected monetary policy changes on risk indicators drawn from equity, fixed-income, credit, and foreign exchange markets. We develop a new index of risk appetite based on the common component of these indicators. Surprise monetary easing leads to strong and persistent increases in our index, and vice versa for tightening surprises, consistent with the view that monetary policy affects asset prices in large part through its effects on risk appetite. We discuss the implications of the risk-taking channel for monetary policy transmission, optimal monetary policy, and financial stability.
货币政策会部分通过改变投资者的风险偏好来影响金融市场和更广泛的经济。本文通过回顾和扩展联邦公开市场委员会公告的事件研究分析，为这种所谓的货币政策冒险通道提供了新的证据。我们记录了意外货币政策变化对风险指标的显著影响，这些指标来自股票、固定收益、信贷和外汇市场。基于这些指标的共同组成部分，我们开发了一个新的风险偏好指数。意外的货币宽松会导致我们的指数强劲而持续地上升，而意外的收紧也会导致指数强劲而持续地上升，这与货币政策在很大程度上通过其对风险偏好的影响来影响资产价格的观点一致。我们讨论了风险承担渠道对货币政策传导、最优货币政策和金融稳定的影响。
6.Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965–2022
软着陆和硬着陆:美联储，1965-2022
Alan S. Blinder
"Soft landings," that is, cases in which the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession (which would be a "hard landing"), are thought to be difficult to achieve and extremely rare. According to the conventional wisdom, the Federal Reserve has managed to achieve only one soft landing in the past 60 years—in 1994–1995. This paper studies the eleven episodes of monetary policy tightening by the Fed since 1965, and concludes that the central bank has a better record than that—that as long as the criteria for softness are not too stringent, and Fed was actually trying to land the economy softly, the Fed has succeeded several times. Achieving a soft landing, however, requires both skill in managing monetary policy and the absence of adverse external shocks.
“软着陆”，即央行收紧货币政策以抗击通胀，但不会导致经济衰退(也就是“硬着陆”)，被认为很难实现，而且极其罕见。根据传统观点，美联储在过去60年里只成功实现了一次软着陆——1994-1995年。本文研究了美联储自1965年以来的11次紧缩货币政策，得出的结论是，中央银行的记录比这要好——只要软性的标准不是太严格，而且美联储实际上是在努力让经济软性着陆，美联储已经成功了几次。然而，实现软着陆既需要管理货币政策的技巧，也需要避免不利的外部冲击。
7.Monetary Policy and Inequality
Alisdair McKay and Christian K. Wolf
货币政策与不平等
We ask three questions about the connection between monetary policy and inequality. First, does monetary policy affect inequality? While different households respond to changes in monetary policy for different reasons, we argue that the overall consumption effects are relatively evenly distributed across households. Second, does household heterogeneity change our understanding of monetary policy transmission? A more careful account of microeconomic consumption behavior materially alters our understanding of transmission channels, but has rather limited effect on our general view of the aggregate effects of monetary policy. Third, does inequality affect the optimal conduct of monetary policy? Since monetary policy is a rather blunt distributional tool, we argue that even a central bank with an explicit distributional mandate would not deviate much from conventional policy prescriptions.
我们就货币政策与不平等之间的关系提出三个问题。首先，货币政策会影响不平等吗?虽然不同家庭对货币政策变化的反应出于不同的原因，但我们认为，整体消费效应在家庭之间的分布相对平均。第二，家庭异质性是否改变了我们对货币政策传导的理解?对微观经济消费行为的更仔细的描述在很大程度上改变了我们对传导渠道的理解，但对我们对货币政策总体效应的总体看法影响有限。第三，不平等是否会影响货币政策的最优行为?由于货币政策是一种相当生硬的分配工具，我们认为，即使是具有明确分配任务的央行，也不会太偏离传统的政策处方。
9.Unraveling the Hispanic Health Paradox
揭示拉美裔健康悖论
José Fernandez, Mónica García-Pérez and Sandra Orozco-Aleman
In 2019, Hispanics in the US had a life expectancy advantage of 3.0 years and 7.1 years over non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks, respectively, despite having real-household income values 26 percentage points lower than Non-Hispanic White households. Hispanics appear to have equal or even better health outcomes relative to non-Hispanic Whites across various health measures. This is known as the Hispanic health paradox. This paper underscores the importance of disaggregating Hispanics by ancestry and age profile when discussing the paradox across key health outcomes. It also provides an overview of the leading explanations, such as the salmon bias and the healthy immigrant effect. Further, it highlights the role of healthcare access and usage in this discussion. Ignoring these sources of bias have important consequences for how morbidity and mortality among Hispanics are measured within widely used national datasets.
2019年，美国西班牙裔家庭的实际收入比非西班牙裔白人家庭低26个百分点，但其预期寿命比非西班牙裔白人家庭和非西班牙裔黑人家庭分别高出3.0岁和7.1岁。在各种健康指标中，西班牙裔似乎与非西班牙裔白人的健康结果相同，甚至更好。这就是著名的西班牙裔健康悖论。本文强调了在讨论关键健康结果的悖论时，按血统和年龄资料分解西班牙裔的重要性。它还提供了主要解释的概述，如鲑鱼偏见和健康移民效应。此外，它还强调了医疗保健访问和使用在本讨论中的作用。忽略这些偏差来源，会对如何在广泛使用的国家数据集中测量西班牙裔的发病率和死亡率产生重要影响。
10.Hispanic Americans in the Labor Market: Patterns over Time and across Generations
拉美裔美国人在劳动力市场:随着时间和世代的模式
Francisca M. Antman, Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo
This article reviews evidence on the labor market performance of Hispanics in the United States, with a particular focus on the US-born segment of this population. After discussing critical issues that arise in the US data sources commonly used to study Hispanics, we document how Hispanics currently compare with other Americans in terms of education, earnings, and labor supply, and then we discuss long-term trends in these outcomes. Relative to non-Hispanic Whites, US-born Hispanics from most national origin groups possess sizeable deficits in earnings, which in large part reflect corresponding educational deficits. Over time, rates of high school completion by US-born Hispanics have almost converged to those of non-Hispanic Whites, but the large Hispanic deficits in college completion have instead widened. Finally, from the perspective of immigrant generations, Hispanics experience substantial improvements in education and earnings between first-generation immigrants and the second-generation consisting of the US-born children of immigrants. Continued progress beyond the second generation is obscured by measurement issues arising from high rates of Hispanic intermarriage and the fact that later-generation descendants of Hispanic immigrants often do not self-identify as Hispanic when they come from families with mixed ethnic origins.
本文回顾了美国拉美裔劳动力市场表现的证据，特别关注在美国出生的这部分人口。在讨论了通常用于研究西班牙裔的美国数据源中出现的关键问题后，我们记录了西班牙裔目前在教育、收入和劳动力供应方面与其他美国人的比较情况，然后我们讨论了这些结果的长期趋势。相对于非西班牙裔白人，美国出生的大多数拉美裔族群在收入上存在相当大的赤字，这在很大程度上反映了相应的教育赤字。随着时间的推移，在美国出生的西班牙裔高中完成率几乎与非西班牙裔白人持平，但西班牙裔在大学完成率方面的巨大差距反而扩大了。最后，从移民世代的角度来看，在第一代移民和由在美国出生的移民子女组成的第二代移民之间，西班牙裔在教育和收入方面有了长足的进步。由于西班牙裔异族通婚率高，以及西班牙裔移民的后代在来自不同种族混合的家庭时往往不认为自己是西班牙裔这一事实，使得第二代人之后的持续进步变得模糊不清。
11.US Immigration from Latin America in Historical Perspective
从历史角度看拉丁美洲移民美国
Gordon Hanson, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
The share of US residents who were born in Latin America and the Caribbean plateaued recently, after a half century of rapid growth. Our review of the evidence on the US immigration wave from the region suggests that it bears many similarities to the major immigration waves of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, that the demographic and economic forces behind Latin American migrant inflows appear to have weakened across most sending countries, and that a continued slowdown of immigration from Latin America post-pandemic has the potential to disrupt labor-intensive sectors in many US regional labor markets.
在经历了半个世纪的快速增长后，出生在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的美国居民比例最近趋于稳定。我们对来自该地区的美国移民浪潮的证据的审查表明，它与19世纪和20世纪初的主要移民浪潮有许多相似之处，在大多数来源国，拉丁美洲移民流入背后的人口和经济力量似乎已经减弱，大流行后来自拉丁美洲的移民的持续放缓有可能扰乱美国许多地区劳动力市场的劳动密集型部门。
