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The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting (Part1)

2023-08-03 00:01 作者:知世石高  | 我要投稿

这篇文章有点长,我把它分成了考研阅读的长度(600-700words)


MATTEO DELL’ACQUA has to shout to make himself heard. Engine Room Number Five at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ data centre in Bologna houses(contain 有) a series of motors, each turning a three-tonne flywheel. Should the electricity cut out, the flywheels—and those in four other rooms elsewhere in the building—have enough momentum to keep the ECMWF’s newest supercomputer running until the back-up diesel generators fire up.

“Should the electricity cut out”中的 “should”是if条件句省略if的倒装形式。这句话还原回去是这样的:“if the electricity should cut out, the flywheels have enough momentum ”。在这里,“should”的意思是“可能,如果”。例如:“If I should win the lottery, I would travel around the world.”(如果我中了彩票,我会环游世界。)这句话可以写成“Should I win the lottery, I would travel around the world.”。

If引导的条件从句除了should可以倒装之外,还有were和had。例如:

①Had he studied harder, he would have passed the exam.(如果他学习更努力,他就会通过考试。)

②Were it not for your help, I would have failed.(如果不是因为你的帮助,我就会失败。)


Those generators have fuel for three days. A longer blackout would spell(mean意味着) disaster. Weather shapes(determines决定) military campaigns and crop harvests, sports matches and supply chains. Losing access to the world’s most reliable weather forecast would drastically reduce the prescience and preparedness of more than 35 countries, NATO(North Atlantic Treaty Organization北大西洋公约组织), at least one space agency and a great many research institutions and businesses. The operation(运算) must run constantly, says Mr Dell’Acqua, who is in charge of the whole affair. “It’s really critical.”

 

Built inside a former tobacco factory, the Bologna data centre is a nerve centre(神经中枢) of ECMWF’s operations. Every day, 800m observations(观察数据) pour in from satellites, ocean buoys(浮标), ground weather stations, balloons and aircraft. Besides preparations for a power cut, there are contingency plans for floods and fires. Water from two external towers is circulated constantly, keeping the electronics cool.

 

Outside, though, cooling is in short supply. For the past two weeks much of Europe has been gripped by a punishing heatwave. Bologna was one of 23 Italian cities put on “red alert”. Several countries broke temperature records; fires have burned across Greece and the Canary Islands. Large swathes(大片区域) of America and Asia were also beset(困扰) by sweltering(闷热的) heat. July 6th saw the highest average global air temperature ever recorded on Earth, according to estimates published by the University of Maine. Elsewhere, the weather brought a different kind of misery. Torrential rain(暴雨) in South Korea, India and on America’s east coast killed scoresa large number很多人). Two days after The Economist’s visit to Bologna, hailstones the size of tennis balls rained down on the nearby city of Milan.

 

Climate scientists reckon the heatwaves were made far more likely by climate change. Weather forecasts gave countries advance warning, a job that will become even more important as the planet warms further. Governments are investing in bigger and better forecasting models. They are being joined by private firms producing smaller-scale, specialised forecasts for businesses—and by tech firms betting that AI can revolutionise the field.

 

Modern weather forecasting owes its existence to the advent of digital computers in the 1960s and 1970s. It has improved steadily ever since (see chart). The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an arm of the United Nations, reckons that a five-day forecast today is about as accurate as a two-day forecast was a quarter of a century ago.

as accurate as a two-day forecast was 是as引导的从句,之前已经讲过了。

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