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【中英】经济学人| 这届年轻人钱花在哪里了?

2023-01-17 10:36 作者:二宝学长  | 我要投稿

How the young spend their money


They are woke, broke and complicated. Businesses should take note

Young people have always perplexed their elders. Today’s youngsters are no different; indeed, they are baffling. They have thin wallets and expensive tastes. They prize convenience and a social conscience. They want their shopping to be at once seamless and personal. They crave authenticity while being constantly immersed in an ersatz digital world. As these youngsters start spending in earnest, brands are trying to understand what these walking paradoxes want and how they shop. The answers will define the next era of consumerism.

年轻人总是让他们的长辈感到困惑。今天的年轻人也不例外;的确,他们让人困惑。他们没钱但品味很高。他们崇尚便利和社会良知。他们希望他们的购物既是无缝的又是个人的。他们渴望真实性,同时又不断沉浸在一个虚假的数字世界中。随着这些年轻人开始认真地消费,品牌商正试图了解这些行走的矛盾体想要什么以及他们如何购物。这些答案将决定下一个消费时代的到来。

Their absolute numbers are formidable. The European Union is home to nearly 125m people between the ages of ten (who will become consumers in the next few years) and 34. America has another 110m of these Gen-zs and millennials, a third of the population. The total annual spending of households headed by American Gen-zs and millennials hit $2.7trn in 2021, around 30% of the total. Although they are the group with the least to spend per head today, by 2026 American Gen-zs (those born between 1997 and 2012) may make up the majority of the country’s shoppers.

他们的绝对数量是非常大的。欧盟拥有近 1.25 亿年龄在 10 岁(将在未来几年内成为消费者)和 34 岁之间的人。美国还有 1.1 亿这样的 "z 世代 "和 "千禧一代",占人口的三分之一。2021 年,以美国 Z 世代和千禧一代为户主的家庭年支出总额达到 27 万亿美元,约占总数的 30%。尽管他们是今天人均消费最少的群体,但到 2026 年,美国 Z 世代(1997 年至 2012 年出生的人)可能会占到全国购物者的大多数。

A good place to start dissecting the psyche of the young consumer is to consider the economy that has moulded them. At the older end of the scale, today’s 30-somethings came of age in the midst of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the ensuing recession. Their younger peers had a bit more luck, beginning their careers in years when tightening labour markets had pushed up wages. Until, that is, the covid-19 pandemic upended many of their lives.

剖析年轻消费者的心理的一个好地方是考虑塑造他们的经济。在规模较大的一端,今天的 30 多岁的人是在 2007-09 年的全球金融危机和随后的经济衰退中长大的。他们的年轻同龄人则比较幸运,在劳动力市场紧缩推高工资的年代开始他们的职业生涯。直到新冠疫情改变了他们的许多生活。

These two big shocks, of the sort that their parents were mostly spared in a more benign economic era between 1990 and the mid-2000s, have fostered pessimism among the young people who experienced them. A study by McKinsey, a consultancy, published in 2022, found that a quarter of Gen-zs doubted they would be able to afford to retire. Less than half believed they would ever own a home.

这两次大的冲击,是他们的父母在 1990 年至 2000 年代中期的一个更良性的经济时代大多幸免于难的那种冲击,在经历过这些冲击的年轻人中培养了悲观情绪。麦肯锡咨询公司在 2022 年发表的一项研究发现,四分之一的 Z 世代怀疑他们是否能够负担得起退休费用。不到一半的人认为他们会拥有一个家。

Uncertainty about the future may be encouraging impulsive spending of limited resources in the present. The young were disrupted more by covid than other generations and are now enjoying the rebound. According to McKinsey, American millennials (born between 1980 and the late 1990s) spent 17% more in the year through to March 2022 than they did the year before. Despite a short-term rebound from the dark days of the pandemic, their long-term prospects are less good. American millennials and Gen-zs have accumulated less wealth than Gen-x or Boomers at the same age.

对未来的不确定性可能会鼓励人们在现在冲动地花费有限的资源。与其他几代人相比,年轻人受疫情的干扰更大,现在正在享受恢复。根据麦肯锡的数据,美国千禧一代(出生于 1980 年至 20 世纪 90 年代末)在截至 2022 年 3 月的一年中的支出比前一年多 17%。尽管短期内从大流行病的黑暗时期回升,但他们的长期前景却不那么好。美国千禧一代和 z 世代积累的财富比同龄的 x 世代或 boomers 少。

Easy access to means of spreading payments may also encourage splashing out. According to another McKinsey survey from October 2022, 45% of Europeans in their teens and early 20s intended to make some kind of splurge in the next three months whereas 83% of baby boomers, born before 1964, said “no” to such profligacy. Forrester, a market-research firm, found that most users of “buy now, pay later” apps are a few years either side of 20. Megan Scott, a 20-year-old student from London, speaks for many of her peers by admitting that, when it comes to shopping, she has no restraint—until, she chuckles, the bill arrives.

分期付款的方式更容易鼓励挥霍。 根据麦肯锡 2022 年 10 月的另一项调查,45%的十几岁和二十出头的欧洲人打算在未来三个月内进行某种挥霍,而在 1964 年以前出生的婴儿潮一代中,83%的人对这种挥霍表示 "不"。市场研究公司 Forrester 发现,大多数 "先买后付 "应用程序的用户都在 20 岁左右。来自伦敦的 20 岁学生梅根-斯科特 (Megan Scott) 代表她的许多同龄人承认,在购物方面,她没有任何约束,直到她笑着说,账单到了。

In many ways youngsters’ shopping habits—like their lives—are defined by the “attention economy”, where buying stuff has been made far easier without a trip to the shops. A proliferation of social media means that there are many new ways of attracting consumers’ eyeballs. Most young shoppers never knew a world without smartphones. More than two-thirds of 18- to 34-year-old Americans spend four hours or more on their devices each day. A heightened expectation of convenience comes with being raised in the age of Airbnb, Amazon and Uber. Young people want their shopping to be totally hiccup-free.

在许多方面,年轻人的购物习惯和他们的生活一样,都是由 "注意力经济 "决定的,在这里,购买东西已经变得非常容易,不用去商店。社交媒体的激增意味着有许多新的方式来吸引消费者的眼球。大多数年轻的购物者从来不知道一个没有智能手机的世界。超过三分之二的 18 至 34 岁的美国人每天花四个小时或更多时间在他们的设备上。在 Airbnb、亚马逊和 Uber 时代长大的人,对便利性的期望越来越高。年轻人希望他们的购物能完全不打嗝。

The light-speed online world also appears to have lowered tolerances for long delivery times. A study by Salesforce, a business-software giant, found that Gen-z Americans are the likeliest of all age groups to want their groceries delivered within an hour. They are more likely than the rest of the population to use their phones to pay for shopping, according to Forrester, and are put off if the range of payment methods is limited.

光速的网络世界似乎也降低了对漫长的交货时间的容忍度。商业软件巨头 Salesforce 的一项研究发现,在所有年龄组中,Z 世代的美国人最希望他们的杂货在一小时内送到。根据 Forrester 的数据,他们比其他人群更有可能使用手机支付购物,如果支付方式的范围有限,他们就会放弃。

These “always-on purchasers”, as McKinsey has christened them, often shun a weekly shop for quicker fixes of everything from fashion to furniture. They like subscriptions, frequently favouring shared access to products rather than outright ownership. This has buoyed online-rental sites (like Rent the Runway for fashion) and streaming services. Investors may have fallen out of love with Netflix but Gen-z has not; the company remains one of the most popular brands among that age group in America.

正如麦肯锡所称,这些 "永远在线的购买者",通常不愿意每周购物,而是为了快速解决从时尚到家具的一切问题。他们喜欢订阅,经常倾向于分享产品的使用权,而不是彻底的所有权。这为在线租赁网站(如 Rent the Runway 时装)和流媒体服务提供了动力。投资者可能已经不爱 Netflix 了,但 Z 世代并没有;该公司仍然是美国该年龄组中最受欢迎的品牌之一。

The internet has also changed the way the young discover brands. Print, billboard or television advertising has given way to social media. Instagram, part of Meta’s empire, and TikTok, a Chinese-owned video-sharing app, are where the young look for inspiration, particularly for goods where looks matter such as fashion, beauty and sportswear. TikTok’s user-generated videos can propel even tiny brands to speedy viral fame. Such apps are increasingly adding features that allow users to shop without ever leaving the platform. According to McKinsey, by 2021 six in ten Americans under the age of 25 had completed a purchase on a social-media site. Some are following the Chinese model of “social commerce” by mixing live-streamed entertainment with the chance to shop.

互联网也改变了年轻人发现品牌的方式。印刷品、广告牌或电视广告已经让位于社交媒体。 Instagram 和 TikTok 是年轻人寻找灵感的地方,尤其是对于时尚、美容和运动服装等外观重要的商品。TikTok 的用户生成的视频甚至可以将小品牌能够像病毒一样迅速传播。 这类应用程序越来越多地增加了允许用户不离开平台就能购物的功能。根据麦肯锡的数据,到 2021 年,每 10 个 25 岁以下的美国人中就有 6 个在社交媒体网站上完成过购买。一些人正在效仿中国的 "社交商务 "模式,将现场直播的娱乐活动与购物机会相结合。

For the time being, though, young Western consumers prefer to make purchases outside social media, and often scour sites like Amazon for bargains from the brands they have discovered. According to a survey by Cowen, an investment bank, spending on subscriptions to Prime, Amazon’s home delivery and entertainment service, trails only phone bills, food and travel in young people’s shopping baskets.

但就目前而言,年轻的西方消费者更喜欢在社交媒体之外进行购买,并经常在亚马逊等网站上寻找他们发现的品牌的便宜货。根据投资银行 Cowen 的一项调查,在年轻人的购物篮中,订阅 Prime(亚马逊的送货和娱乐服务)的支出仅次于电话费、食品和旅游。

Physical shops are not entirely shunned, as long as the experience feels personal and, ideally, integrates virtual and physical worlds. Nike, for example, is successfully targeting young buyers by allowing them to design their own trainers on its website, to pick up in person after attending an in-store dance class, and then encouraging them to tag the brand in a review on TikTok or Instagram.

实体店并不完全被回避,只要体验感觉是个人的,而且最好是将虚拟和实体世界结合起来。例如,耐克公司成功地瞄准了年轻买家,允许他们在其网站上设计自己的运动鞋,在参加店内舞蹈课后亲自去取,然后鼓励他们在 TikTok 或 Instagram 上给品牌做评论。

The new world of shopping has also allowed the young to take a more informed view of the companies that they buy from. The attention economy’s information overload has not dulled youngsters’ senses. On the contrary, it appears to have made them hypersensitive, especially to any brand that pretends to be something it isn’t. Edelman, a public-relations firm, found that seven in ten Gen-zs across six countries fact-check claims made in adverts. Citing survey data that show some teens have stopped using certain brands because of their shady ethics, Forrester has taken to calling young consumers “truth barometers”.

新的购物世界也让年轻人对他们购买的公司有了更明智的看法。注意力经济的信息过载并没有使年轻人的感官变得迟钝。相反,它似乎使他们变得敏感,尤其是对任何假装自己不是的品牌。公共关系公司爱德曼 (Edelman) 发现,在六个国家中,十分之七的青少年会对广告中的说法进行事实核查。Forrester 引用调查数据显示,一些青少年因为某些品牌的不道德行为而停止使用这些品牌,并将年轻消费者称为 "真相晴雨表"。

Brands that do not match up to the long list of requirements had better watch out. If they do not get what they want and how they want it, youngsters are happy to try something new. According to another McKinsey survey from October 2022, nine in ten Gen-z and millennial Europeans had changed how they shopped, where they shopped or the brands they bought in the previous three months.

那些不符合一长串要求的品牌最好小心点。如果他们没有得到他们想要的东西和他们想要的方式,年轻人很乐意尝试新的东西。根据麦肯锡 2022 年 10 月的另一项调查,在过去的三个月里,十分之九的欧洲 Z 世代和千禧一代改变了他们的购物方式、购物地点或他们购买的品牌。

How the young shop is clearly in flux. What they buy, too, is changing. What older generations consider discretionary, such as wellness and luxury, have become essentials. Self-care is all the rage. On the hunt for clothing that will set them apart, the young are turning to posh brands at an ever more tender age. According to Bain, a consultancy, the average Gen-z shopper makes their first luxury purchase when they are 15; their 30-something counterparts were 19 when they entered the luxury market. Some buy posh items as a hedge, believing that such items can hold value even during tough times. Helpfully, these can now be traded easily on second-hand sales platforms such as Vinted and Vestiaire Collective.

年轻人的购物方式显然在不断变化。他们购买的东西也在变化。老一代人认为可自由支配的东西,如健康和奢侈品,已经成为必需品。自我保健是所有的流行趋势。为了寻找能让他们与众不同的服装,年轻人在越来越小的年龄就转向了高档品牌。根据咨询公司贝恩(Bain)的数据,Z 世代的购物者平均在 15 岁时购买第一件奢侈品;他们 30 多岁的同行在 19 岁时进入奢侈品市场。一些人购买高档物品作为保值,认为这些物品即使在困难时期也能保持价值。令人欣慰的是,这些东西现在可以在 Vinted 和 Vestiaire Collective 等二手销售平台上轻松交易。

More broadly, young consumers profess to be more values-driven than previous generations. Research by Forrester shows that this attitude is even more common among teenagers and 20-somethings than among slightly older counterparts. Some of these values are centred around identity (race, gender and so on). Others stem from things the young care about, such as climate change. kpmg, an accounting firm, found that the Gen-z crowd across 16 countries worry more about climate change and natural disasters than any other generation. According to a survey by Credit Suisse, a bank, the young in emerging markets are more fretful still.

更广泛地说,年轻消费者自称比前几代人更注重价值观。Forrester 的研究表明,这种态度在青少年和 20 多岁的年轻人中甚至比年龄稍大的人更普遍。这些价值观有些是围绕着身份(种族、性别等)。会计公司 Kpmg 发现,16 个国家的 Z 世代人群比其他任何一代人都更担心气候变化和自然灾害。根据瑞士信贷银行的一项调查,新兴市场的年轻人更加忧虑。

Revealed preferences paint a more nuanced picture. On the one hand, Forrester has identified Patagonia, a premium outdoor-clothing brand with a record of green do-goodery, as a Gen-z favourite in the rich world. The young are the most likely of all age groups to try—and stick with—alternative proteins such as oat milk and plant-based meat alternatives. But not at any price. Credit Suisse found that on average, consumers globally will pay an average premium of 9% for more environmentally friendly grub. Young consumers in the rich world are less willing to pay premiums for these alternatives than their counterparts in emerging markets.

揭示的偏好描绘了一个更细微的画面。一方面,Forrester 认为 Patagonia 是一个高端户外服装品牌,有绿色环保的记录,是富人世界中 Z 世代的最爱。年轻人是所有年龄段中最有可能尝试并坚持使用替代性蛋白质的群体,如燕麦牛奶和植物性肉类替代品。但不是以任何价格。瑞士信贷发现,平均而言,全球消费者将为更环保的食物支付平均 9%的溢价。与新兴市场的消费者相比,富裕国家的年轻消费者不太愿意为这些替代品支付溢价。

Youngsters’ appetite for instant gratification is also fuelling some distinctly ungreen consumer habits. The young generation has virtually invented quick commerce, observes Isabelle Allen of kpmg. And that convenience is affordable because it fails to price in all its externalities. The environmental benefits of eating plants rather than meat can be quickly undone if meals are delivered in small batches by a courier on a petrol-powered motorbike. Shein, a Chinese clothes retailer that is the fastest in fast fashion, tops surveys as a Gen-z favourite in the West, despite being criticised for waste; its fashionable garments are cheap enough to throw on once and then throw away. Like everyone else the young are, then, contradictory—because, like everyone else, they are only human.

年轻人对即时满足的胃口也助长了一些明显不绿色的消费习惯。Kpmg 的 Isabelle Allen 指出,年轻一代实际上已经发明了快速商务。这种便利是可以承受的,因为它没有对其所有的外部因素进行定价。如果由骑着汽油摩托车的快递员小批量送餐,那么吃植物而不是吃肉的环境效益就会迅速消失。中国的服装零售商 Shein 在快速时尚领域发展最快,尽管被批评为浪费,但在西方的调查中,Shein 是年轻人的最爱;其时尚的服装足够便宜,穿一次就扔掉。像其他所有人一样,年轻人是矛盾的—因为,像其他所有人一样,他们只是人类。


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