经济学权威期刊American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2023年第1期
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2023年第1期
VOL. 15, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.Housing in Medicaid: Should It Really Change?
医疗补助中的住房:它真的应该改变吗?
BertrandAchou
Housing is mostly exempted from Medicaid and Supplemental Social Insurance means tests. Reforms of this special treatment have been debated, but little is known about its costs, benefits, and redistributive implications. I estimate a life cycle model of single retirees accounting for this exemption. It shows that the homestead exemption explains important patterns of Medicaid recipiency and that it is highly valued. It also shows that estate recovery could cover most of its costs with possibly limited negative welfare consequences. Finally, the model predicts that removing the homestead exemption or enforcing estate recovery programs would reduce redistribution toward lower-income retirees.
住房大多免除了医疗补助和补充社会保险的经济状况调查。这种特殊待遇的改革一直在辩论，但对其成本、收益和再分配影响知之甚少。我估算了一个单身退休人员的生命周期模型，用于计算这一豁免。它表明，宅基地豁免解释了医疗补助接受的重要模式，并得到了高度重视。它还表明，房地产回收可以弥补其大部分成本，但可能有限的负面福利后果。最后，该模型预测，取消宅基地豁免或执行房地产回收计划将减少对低收入退休人员的再分配。
2.The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s
儿童早期教育对成人犯罪的影响:20世纪60年代至90年代的证据
JohnAnders, Andrew C. Barr and Alexander A. Smith
We compare the effects of early childhood education on adult criminal behavior across time periods, using administrative crime data that provide significant precision advantages over existing work. We find that improvements in early childhood education led to large (20 percent) reductions in later criminal behavior, reductions that far exceed those implied by estimates of test score gains in prior studies. While the benefits generated account for a large portion of the costs of the education provided, we find substantial relative gains from the targeting of funds to high-poverty areas and areas without existing access to subsidized care.
我们使用行政犯罪数据来比较不同时期早期儿童教育对成人犯罪行为的影响，这些数据比现有研究提供了显著的精确优势。我们发现，早期儿童教育的改善导致了后来犯罪行为的大幅减少(20%)，这一减少远远超过了之前研究中对考试成绩提高的估计。虽然所产生的收益占所提供教育成本的很大一部分，但我们发现，将资金定向到高贫困地区和现有无法获得补贴医疗的地区带来了可观的相对收益。
3.Exploring Residual Profit Allocation
SebastianBeer, Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous, Michael Keen and Li Liu
Residual profit allocation (RPA) schemes have come to prominence in discussions of international tax reform but with almost nothing known about their economic impact. These schemes tax multinationals by allocating their "routine" profits to source countries and sharing their remaining "residual" profit across countries on some formulaic basis. This paper explores the implications, conceptual and empirical, of moving to some form of RPA. Residual profits are estimated to be substantial and concentrated in relatively few multinational enterprises. The impact on tax revenue appears beneficial for developing countries. Aggregate production efficiency is unlikely to increase unless routine profits are lightly taxed.
剩余利润分配(RPA)计划在国际税收改革的讨论中已经变得突出，但对它们的经济影响几乎一无所知。这些计划通过将跨国公司的”常规”利润分配给来源国，并在某种公式化的基础上在各国之间分享剩余的”剩余”利润，对跨国公司征税。本文探讨了迁移到某种形式的RPA的概念和经验含义。据估计，剩余利润相当可观，而且集中在相对较少的跨国企业。对税收收入的影响似乎对发展中国家有利。除非对日常利润征收少量的税，否则总体生产效率不太可能提高。
4.Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment
作为稻草人的税务审计:来自大规模实地实验的证据
MarceloBergolo, Rodrigo Ceni, Guillermo Cruces, Matias Giaccobasso and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in collaboration with a tax authority to address this question. We sent letters to 20,440 small- and medium-sized firms that collectively paid more than US$200 million in taxes per year. We find that providing information about audits significantly affected tax compliance but in a manner that was inconsistent with Allingham and Sandmo (1972).
阿林厄姆和Sandmo(1972)的规范模型预测，企业通过在逃税的成本和收益之间进行最优权衡来逃避税收。然而，没有直接证据表明企业会以这种方式对审计做出反应。为了解决这个问题，我们与税务机关合作进行了一项大规模的现场实验。我们致函20440家中小企业，这些企业每年总共缴纳了超过2亿美元的税款。我们发现，提供审计信息显著影响税收合规，但其方式与Allingham和Sandmo(1972)不一致。
5.The Employment Effects of Countercyclical Public Investments
反周期公共投资的就业效应
LukasBuchheim and Martin Watzinger
This paper estimates the causal impact of a sizable German public investment program on employment at the county level. The program focused on improving the energy efficiency of school buildings, making it possible to use the number of schools as an instrument for investments. It also enforced tight deadlines, reducing potential implementation lags. The program was cost-effective, creating, on average, one job for one year for an investment of €24,000. The employment gains are detectable after nine months and are accompanied by an unemployment reduction amounting to half of the job creation. Employment grew predominately in the directly affected industries.
本文估计了德国大规模公共投资计划对县级就业的因果影响。该计划的重点是提高学校建筑的能源效率，使学校数量成为投资工具成为可能。它还规定了严格的期限，减少了可能的实施滞后。该项目具有成本效益，平均每年创造一个工作岗位，投资2.4万欧元。就业增长在9个月后可以检测到，与此同时，失业率下降了一半，创造了一半的就业机会。就业主要在直接受影响的行业增长。
6.SOEs and Soft Incentive Constraints in State Bank Lending
国有企业与国有银行贷款中的软激励约束
YimingCao, Raymond Fisman, Hui Lin and Yongxiang Wang
We study how Chinese state bank managers' lending incentives impact lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We show lending quantity increases and quality decreases at month's end, indicating monthly lending targets that decrease lending standards. Increased quantity comes from both SOEs and private lending, whereas decreased quality is from only SOEs, which continue to receive loans even after prior defaults (particularly at month's end). We suggest that SOE lending may thus be beneficial for state bank managers, who lend to delinquent state enterprises to meet targets, which in turn may exacerbate SOEs' soft budget constraints.
本文研究了中国国有银行高管的贷款激励对国有企业贷款的影响。我们显示月末贷款数量增加而质量下降，表明月度贷款目标降低了贷款标准。数量的增加来自国有企业和民间借贷，而质量的下降仅来自国有企业，即使在之前的违约(特别是在月底)之后，国有企业也能继续获得贷款。因此，国有企业贷款可能有利于国有银行管理者，他们向拖欠的国有企业贷款以实现目标，这反过来可能加剧国有企业的软预算约束。
7.Economic Effects of Environmental Crises: Evidence from Flint, Michigan
环境危机的经济影响:来自密歇根州弗林特的证据
PeterChristensen, David A. Keiser and Gabriel E. Lade
In April 2014 Flint, Michigan switched its drinking water supply from the Detroit water system to the Flint River as a temporary means to save $5 million. Over 18 months it was revealed that the switch exposed residents to dangerous levels of lead, culminating in an emergency declaration in October 2015. This paper examines the impact of this crisis on the Flint housing market. The value of Flint's housing stock has fallen by $520 million to $559 million despite over $400 million in remediation spending. Home prices remain depressed through August 2019, 16 months after the water was declared safe for consumption.
2014年4月，密歇根州的弗林特市将其饮用水供应从底特律供水系统改为弗林特河，作为一种临时手段，以节省500万美元。在过去的18个月里，人们发现，这种开关使居民暴露在危险水平的铅中，最终在2015年10月宣布进入紧急状态。本文研究了这场危机对弗林特住房市场的影响。弗林特的住房股票价值下降了5.2亿美元，降至5.59亿美元，尽管补救支出超过4亿美元。直到2019年8月，房价仍然低迷，16个月前，这种水被宣布可以安全饮用。
8.The Extension of Credit with Nonexclusive Contracts and Sequential Banking Externalities
非排他性契约下的信贷扩展与顺序银行外部性
GiacomoDe Giorgi, Andres Drenik and Enrique Seira
Nonexclusive sequential borrowing can increase default and impose externalities on prior lenders. We document that sequential banking is pervasive with substantial effects. Using credit card applications from a large bank and data on the applicants' entire loan portfolios, we find that an additional credit line causes a 5.9 percentage point decline in default for high-score borrowers on previous loans. However, for low-score borrowers, it causes a 19 percentage point increase. The former use the new credit to smooth payments on preexisting loans, while the latter increase their total debt. These results have implications for "no-universal-default" regulation and financial inclusion.
非排他性连续借款会增加违约，并对先前的出借人施加外部性。我们证明，顺序银行是普遍的，具有重大的影响。利用一家大银行的信用卡申请和申请人整个贷款组合的数据，我们发现，对高分借款人来说，额外的信用额度会使他们之前贷款的违约率下降5.9个百分点。然而，对于低分借款人，它会导致19个百分点的增长。前者使用新的信贷来顺利偿还先前存在的贷款，而后者则增加了他们的总债务。这些结果对“无普遍违约”监管和普惠金融具有启示意义。
9.Expanding Access to Clean Water for the Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence from Malawi
扩大农村贫困人口获得清洁水的途径:来自马拉维的实验证据
PascalineDupas, Basimenye Nhlema, Zachary Wagner, Aaron Wolf and Emily Wroe
Data from an 18-month randomized trial show large and sustained impacts on water purification and child health of a program providing monthly coupons for free water treatment solution to households with young children. The program is more effective and much more cost effective than asking Community Health Workers (CHWs) to distribute free chlorine to households during routine monthly visits. This is because only 40 percent of households use free chlorine, targeting through CHWs is worse than self-targeting through coupon redemption, and water treatment promotion by CHWs does not increase chlorine use among beneficiaries of free chlorine.
一项为期18个月的随机试验数据显示，为有幼儿的家庭每月提供免费水处理解决方案优惠券的项目对水净化和儿童健康产生了巨大而持续的影响。与要求社区卫生工作者(chw)在每月例行访问期间向家庭免费分发氯相比，该项目更有效，成本效益更高。这是因为只有40%的家庭使用免费氯，通过社区卫生机构进行目标定位比通过优惠券兑换进行自我目标定位更糟糕，而且社区卫生机构的水处理推广并没有增加免费氯受益者的氯使用量。
10.Employed in a SNAP? The Impact of Work Requirements on Program Participation and Labor Supply
在SNAP工作?工作要求对项目参与和劳动力供给的影响
ColinGray, Adam Leive, Elena Prager, Kelsey Pukelis and Mary Zaki
Work requirements are common in US safety net programs. Evidence remains limited, however, on the extent to which work requirements increase economic self-sufficiency or screen out vulnerable individuals. Using linked administrative data on food stamps (SNAP) and earnings with a regression discontinuity design, we find robust evidence that work requirements increase program exits by 23 percentage points (64 percent) among incumbent participants. Overall program participation among adults who are subject to work requirements is reduced by 53 percent. Homeless adults are disproportionately screened out. We find no effects on employment and suggestive evidence of increased earnings in some specifications.
工作要求在美国的安全网计划中很常见。然而，关于工作要求在多大程度上提高经济自给自足或淘汰弱势个体的证据仍然有限。使用有关食品券(SNAP)和收益的关联管理数据，并采用回归不连续设计，我们发现了强有力的证据，表明工作要求使在职参与者的项目退出率提高了23个百分点(64%)。受工作要求约束的成年人参与项目的总体人数减少了53%。无家可归的成年人不成比例地被淘汰。我们没有发现对就业的影响，并在某些规格中发现了增加收入的暗示性证据。
11.Implications of Tax Loss Asymmetry for Owners of S Corporations
税收损失不对称对S公司所有者的启示
LucasGoodman, Elena Patel and Molly Saunders-Scott
We study tax loss asymmetry for S corporate owners. These owners use most losses contemporaneously, reducing the tax asymmetry compared to C corporations. However, these owners face distortions due to the progressive individual tax schedule. The value of this asymmetry is approximately $3.5 billion per year. We find that this asymmetry creates disincentives for risky investment and causes allocative inefficiencies among loss and gains owners. Finally, we simulate the effects of certain provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; we estimate that these provisions—especially section 199A—reduce the behavioral distortions of the asymmetry for S corporate owners.
我们研究S公司所有者的税收损失不对称性。这些所有者同时使用大部分亏损，与C公司相比，减少了税收不对称。然而，由于累进个人税收表，这些所有者面临着扭曲。这种不对称的价值大约是每年35亿美元。我们发现，这种不对称对风险投资产生了抑制作用，并导致损失所有者和收益所有者之间的配置效率低下。最后，我们模拟了《减税与就业法案》某些条款的影响;我们估计，这些条款，特别是第199a条，减少了S公司所有者不对称的行为扭曲。
12.Health Effects of Increasing Income for the Elderly: Evidence from a Chilean Pension Program
老年人收入增加对健康的影响:来自智利养老金计划的证据
EnricoMiglino, Nicolás Navarrete H., Gonzalo Navarrete H. and Pablo Navarrete H.
We estimate the effect of a permanent income increase on the health outcomes of the elderly poor. Our regression discontinuity design exploits an eligibility cutoff in a Chilean basic pension program that grants monthly payments to retirees without a contributory pension. Using administrative data, we find that four years after applying, basic pension recipients are 2.7 percentage points less likely to have died. Survey evidence suggests an increase in food consumption and visits to health centers as relevant drivers of the mortality reduction.
我们估计了长期收入增加对贫困老年人口健康状况的影响。我们的回归不连续设计利用了智利基本养老金计划中的资格截止点，该计划每月向没有缴费养老金的退休人员发放养老金。使用管理数据，我们发现，在申请四年后，基本养老金领取者的死亡可能性降低了2.7个百分点。调查证据表明，食品消费量的增加和到保健中心就诊次数的增加是死亡率降低的相关驱动因素。
13.The Economic Consequences of Being Denied an Abortion
被拒绝堕胎的经济后果
SarahMiller, Laura R. Wherry and Diana Greene Foster
This paper evaluates the financial and economic consequences of being denied an abortion. We link credit report data to the Turnaway Study, which collected high-quality, longitudinal data on women receiving or being denied a wanted abortion in the United States. We compare financial outcomes over a ten-year period for women who had pregnancies just above and below a gestational age limit allowing for a wanted abortion. Outcomes evolved similarly for the two groups prior to the abortion encounter. Following the encounter, women who were denied an abortion experience a large increase in financial distress that remains for several years.
本文评估了被拒绝堕胎的财务和经济后果。我们将信用报告数据与Turnaway研究联系起来，该研究收集了美国接受或被拒绝堕胎的女性的高质量纵向数据。我们比较了怀孕刚好高于和低于允许堕胎的胎龄限制的妇女在10年期间的财务状况。两组在堕胎前的结局相似。在这种遭遇之后，被拒绝堕胎的女性在经济上的困难会大幅增加，这种情况会持续数年。
14.School Boards and Education Production: Evidence from Randomized Ballot Order
学校董事会和教育生产:来自随机投票顺序的证据
YingShi and John D. Singleton
We examine the causal influence of educators elected to the school board on local education production. The key empirical challenge is that school board composition is endogenously determined through the electoral process. To overcome this, we develop a novel research design that leverages California's randomized assignment of the order that candidate names appear on election ballots. We find that an additional educator elected to the school board reduces charter schooling and increases teacher salaries in the school district relative to other board members. We interpret these findings as consistent with educator board members shifting bargaining in favor of teachers' unions.
我们考察了当选为学校董事会成员的教育工作者对当地教育生产的因果影响。关键的实证挑战是，学校董事会的组成是通过选举过程内生决定的。为了克服这一问题，我们开发了一种新颖的研究设计，利用加利福尼亚州对候选人名字出现在选举选票上的顺序进行随机分配。我们发现，增加一名当选为学校董事会成员的教育工作者会减少特许教育，并增加学区教师相对于其他董事会成员的工资。我们认为这些发现与教育委员会成员转向有利于教师工会的谈判一致。
15.What Does a Provider Network Do? Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid Managed Care
提供者网络做什么?来自医疗补助管理医疗随机分配的证据
JacobWallace
Leveraging the random assignment of over 50,000 Medicaid enrollees in New York, I present causal evidence that narrower networks are a blunt instrument for reducing health care spending. While narrower networks constrain spending, they do so by generating hassle costs that reduce quantity, with modest effects on prices paid to providers. Enrollees assigned to narrower networks use fewer of both needed and unneeded services and are less satisfied with their plans. Using my causal estimates to construct counterfactuals, I identify an alternative assignment policy that reduces spending without harming satisfaction by matching consumers with narrower networks that include their providers.
利用纽约5万多名医疗补助参选者的随机分配，我提出了因果证据，表明更窄的网络是减少医疗保健支出的生硬工具。虽然更狭窄的网络限制了支出，但它们通过产生减少数量的麻烦成本来做到这一点，而对支付给供应商的价格影响不大。被分配到更狭窄的网络的参保者使用更少的必要和不需要的服务，并且对他们的计划不太满意。利用我的因果估计来构建反事实，我确定了一种替代分配策略，通过将消费者与包括他们的提供者在内的更狭窄的网络匹配，在不损害满意度的情况下减少支出。
16.Student Performance, Peer Effects, and Friend Networks: Evidence from a Randomized Peer Intervention
学生表现、同伴影响和朋友网络:来自随机同伴干预的证据
JiaWu, Junsen Zhang and Chunchao Wang
We estimate the effects of an educational peer intervention in which previously high- and low-achieving students are randomly paired as deskmates in elementary schools in China. Our treatment boosts the mathematics scores of the low-achieving students. Moreover, the treatment enhances the extraversion and agreeableness of high- and low-achieving students, thereby providing evidence that peers can influence personality traits. The positive treatment effects can be attributed to the deskmate-level peer effects. We document friend network structure changes and present additional evidence on how friendship ties help us better understand the mechanisms behind peer effects.
我们评估了一项教育同伴干预的效果，在这项干预中，以前成绩好的学生和成绩差的学生被随机配对为中国小学的同桌。我们的处理提高了成绩差的学生的数学成绩。此外，这种处理提高了成绩好的学生和成绩差的学生的外向性和亲和性，从而为同伴可以影响人格特征提供了证据。积极的处理效果可以归因于同桌水平的同伴效应。我们记录了朋友网络结构的变化，并提供了更多的证据，证明友谊关系如何帮助我们更好地理解同伴效应背后的机制。
