黑天鹅事件 / black swan events

「释义」

黑天鹅事件指非常难以预测，且不寻常的事件，通常会引起市场连锁负面反应甚至颠覆。

一般来说，“黑天鹅”事件是指满足以下三个特点的事件：具有意外性；产生重大影响；虽然它具有意外性，但人的本性促使我们在事后为它的发生编造理由，并且或多或少认为它是可解释和可预测的。

黑天鹅存在于各个领域，无论金融市场、商业、经济还是个人生活，都逃不过它的控制。“灰犀牛”是与“黑天鹅”相互补足的概念，“灰犀牛事件”是太过于常见以至于人们习以为常的风险，“黑天鹅事件”则是极其罕见的、出乎人们意料的风险。

「应用场景」

CEO在不同周期的任务不同。有些CEO是创始人和塑造者；有些CEO是幸运儿，经历经济稳定或商业模式尚未被颠覆的时期；我的任务截然不同：在极其动荡的年代重塑GE这一老字号。

在6000个日日夜夜里，我掌管一支30万人的队伍，带领他们走过萧条、泡沫和地缘政治风险。我至少目睹了3起“黑天鹅”事件。新的竞争对手不断涌现，商业模式不断改变，我们开发了全新的投资模式。GE不仅屹立不倒，而且涅槃重生。现在我们完全具备了赢得未来的所有条件。

从2001年掌管这家公司至今，世界上发生的剧变不胜枚举，也让CEO一职面临前所未有的挑战。因此，我的经验绝非完美。我的决定将在未来数十年内显现出成效，但在创造长期价值上，我们从不会畏首畏尾。

A CEO has different tasks in different cycles. Some CEOs are founders and builders. Others have the luxury of managing momentum through a stable economy or a period when business models aren’t being disrupted. My task was different: remaking a historic and iconic company during an extremely volatile time.

I led a team of 300,000 people for 6,000 days. I led through recessions, bubbles, and geopolitical risk. I saw at least three “black swan” events. New competitors emerged, business models changed, and we ushered in an entirely new way to invest. But we didn’t just persevere; we transformed the company. GE is well positioned to win in the future.

The changes that took in the world from 2001, when I assumed the company’s leadership, to 2017 are too numerous to mention. The task of the CEO has never been as difficult as it is today. In that vein, my story is one of progress versus perfection. The outcomes of my decisions will play out over decades, but we never feared taking big steps to create long-term value.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2017年9月刊《杰夫·伊梅尔特：重塑GE以及我的感悟》

杰夫·伊梅尔特（Jeffrey R. Immelt）丨文

马冰仑 丨编辑