小练习 9.5
The more I think about it, the more the I realize how huge this news actually is, how big a win it is for China, and how big a loss for the US.
In one simple move, China basically proved that the enormous years-long efforts the US put to destroy both Huawei and the Chinese semiconductor industry have been defeated.
我越想越明白，这条新闻的意义到底有多深刻，这场胜利对中国来说到底有多宏大，这次败北对美国来说又到底有多么耻辱。
中国只走了一着棋就基本证明，美国花费这么长时间、用这么大功夫去摧毁华为和中国半导体产业的企图，已经轰然破碎。
In typical Chinese fashion - words are cheap in China, you prove yourself with deeds - they didn't make any announcements about it. Huawei didn't even communicate on the product launch, the phone just showed up in their store. And that was coincidentally on exactly the same day as the visit of US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who had vowed to "slow China's innovation rate". Talk about symbolism!
依着中国人的习惯——在中国人眼里，切实行动比空口白话更有用——他们压根没给这事造势。华为甚至都没有就这部产品的发布透露一个字，然后这部手机就这么凭空出现在他们的店里。好巧不巧，指天誓日要“拖慢中国创新步伐”的美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多恰好就在同一天访问中国。什么象征主义！
People had to look inside the phone to find out it is equipped with Huawei’s in-house Kirin 9000s processor, which is apparently made by Chinese semiconductor firm SMIC using a 2nd generation 7nm-class fabrication process. Less than one year ago, when the US introduced its sweeping set of sanctions against the Chinese semiconductors industry, "experts" vowed it would kill the industry or at least freeze its technological progress at the 28 nm chips China were at back then. Fast forward to now: China can evidently mass-produce 2nd generation 7nm chips entirely indigenously. The iPhone 14 Pro has 4nm chips so China is now almost on par, maybe just 1 or 2 years behind but catching up at an insane speed.
人们只能把手机拆开，这才发现这手机里装备的是华为自研自发的麒麟9000s处理器。它明显是由中国半导体公司SMIC用二代7纳米级技术制造的。在不到一年前，美国针对中国半导体产业发布一大堆制裁的时候，所谓的“专家”们信誓旦旦地宣称这将会把中国的半导体产业扼杀在摇篮里，或至少将中国对纳米芯片科研进度在当时的28纳米处按下停止键。然而反观现在，中国已经具备了完全在自己的国土上大量生产二代7纳米芯片的能力。iPhone14Pro上装载的是4纳米芯片，所以中国的技术现在已经几乎与之持平。也许他们落后了一两年，但也正以令人咂舌的速度向这个方向追赶。
So what has the US managed to do? They've transformed Huawei into an incredibly more resilient company and have made China build an entirely indigenous semiconductors ecosystem, which wasn't the case at all before the sanctions, and which I am sure will prove to be a formidable competitor to other semiconductor companies out there.
Because other countries have been paying attention here. They now know that it's super dangerous to source semiconductors with Western firms as the US won't hesitate to weaponize the industry for geopolitical ends. So they'll turn to Chinese firms...
那么，美国做到了些什么呢？他们把华为变成了一个更加坚韧无比的公司，让中国建起了一套完全在境内的半导体生态系统——制裁前，中国在这方面可是手无缚鸡之力。而我相信，假以时日，这套系统会成为国际上其他半导体公司棘手的竞争者。
这是因为其他国家都在关注着相关情势。他们现在知道了，从西方公司订购半导体几乎就是自投死路，因为美国会毫不犹豫地将这个产业变成自己的政治武器。所以，他们会转而向中国公司抛出橄榄枝……
What about Huawei's new phone? You can absolutely bet Huawei will end up eating a significant market share from Apple - as was the case before the sanctions. Especially in China where patriotic Chinese will undoubtedly rush to buy the phone, now a symbol of China's technological might.
而华为的新手机呢？猜都不用猜，它会吃掉相当一部分苹果的市场份额——就像被制裁之前——特别是在中国。它现在是中国高技术实力的象征，爱国的中国人肯定会上赶着买。
So it's lose, lose, lose for the US. Much more loss than if they hadn't done any of their aggressive actions against Huawei or China's chip sector.
Which again goes to show just how utterly pointless this new "cold war" is. Had the US decided to remain in engagement mode instead of "extreme competition" mode (as they call it), they'd have been much better off.
所以这是美国打的一场巨大的败仗。他们损失得比没有用激进手段制裁华为或中国芯片行业之前还要多。
这又一次展现了这场新“冷战”是多么的没意义。要是美国当年决定继续保持在谈判模式而不是切换到他们自称的“极端竞争”模式，情况可能会好得多。
In a word: hubris.
用一个词来概括的话就是：骄兵必败。
——Twi@RnaudBertrand
