【每天一篇经济学人】Extreme temperatures 极端天气（2023

文章来源：《经济学人》Jul 22th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目 Extreme temperatures

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The best thing that has happened in Phoenix, Arizona, since the beginning of July is that the electricity grid has kept functioning. This has meant that during a record-breaking run of daily maximum temperatures above 43°C (110°F), still in progress as The Economist went to press, the houses, indoor workplaces and publicly accessible “cooling stations” in the city have been air-conditioned. There have been deaths from heat stroke and there will be more; there has been a lot of suffering; and there will have been real economic losses. But if Arizona’s grid had gone out, according to an academic quoted in “The Heat Will Kill You First”, a new book, America would have seen “the Hurricane Katrina of extreme heat”.

自7月初以来，亚利桑那州凤凰城最美好的事情就是电网一直正常运行。这意味着，每日最高气温超过 43摄氏度 (110华氏度) 且在高温持续天数创纪录的过程中（截至《经济学人》发稿时仍在破纪录），该市的房屋、室内工作场所和公众可使用的 "避暑站 "都安装了空调。有人已中暑身亡，将还会有更多此类情况发生；许多人在受苦受难；还会导致实际的经济损失。但是，据新书《酷热会先杀死你》中引用一位学者的话说，如果亚利桑那州的电网瘫痪了，美国就会出现 "极端酷热的卡特里娜飓风"。

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It is not just the United States, where 100m people are under heat-advisory notices, that is suffering. There is currently a spate of such heatwaves around the world. Much of the Mediterranean is in similar straits, with temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) from Madrid to Cairo (which is suffering power cuts). By increasing the odds of a wide range of extreme events, global warming also increases the chances that they will come in waves.

美国有1亿人受到高温影响。不仅仅只有美国受灾，目前全球范围内也出现了一系列的热浪。地中海大部分地区也处于类似的困境中，马德里，开罗（正在停电）等城市气温都超过了 40 摄氏度（104 华氏度）。全球变暖增加了各种极端事件发生的几率，也增加了极端事件一波接一波出现的几率。

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Unbearable heat does damage in various ways, including killing crops and livestock, but the immediate challenge it poses to human health is greatest in cities. Less vegetation, more sunlight-absorbing tarmac and more waste heat produce what is called the urban-heat-island effect, exacerbating temperatures. Cities also often have poor air quality, particularly in the places where the poorest people live; extreme heat on top of dirty air can stretch already hard-pressed lungs and hearts too far.

难耐的酷暑会造成各种损害，包括摧毁农作物和杀死牲畜，但城市人会受到直接的影响，他们的健康面临最严重的挑战。城市中的植被更少、吸热的柏油路面更多，更多的废热产生了“城市热岛效应”，加剧了气温的升高。城市的空气质量通常也很差，尤其是在最穷的人居住的地方；极度炎热加上污浊的空气，会让本已不堪重负的肺和心脏造成更大负担。

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There are things to do as soon as the mercury rises. Get homeless people to cooling stations; encourage people to look in on elderly neighbours and relatives (the old, especially women over 80, dominate the excess deaths associated with heatwaves); make it possible for those who must work outside to do so very early in the morning; put hospitals on an emergency footing. The appointment of chief heat officers empowered to co-ordinate such things in American cities, and farther afield, is a welcome trend.

温度计水银柱一升高，我们就需要立即采取行动。将无家可归的人送往避暑站；鼓励人们关心年迈的邻居和亲戚（老年人，尤其是 80 岁以上的女性，在热浪致死人数中占多数）；让那些室外工作者能够在清晨工作（避免在高温时段劳作）；应该将医院置于紧急接诊状态。美国城市及其他地方设立“首席高温事务官”负责协调这些事务，这是一个非常非常受欢迎的举措。

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There are also things to be done in advance. It is crucial to work out where the people at greatest risk live. One thing that can help is deciding where to plant trees, which both provide shade and, as water evaporates through their leaves, cool the air. (It is probably best to work out how to keep them green using wastewater, too, especially if, like the people of Phoenix, you live in a desert.) There are smart choices to be made about the built environment, from the best sort of pavement and courtyards designed for passive cooling to the prevalence of white roofs; there are building codes to update so as to make those choices easier, as well as regulations to change so that workers are not endangered by midday heat.

还有一些事情需要提前做好。关键点是要确定风险最大的人住在哪里。一项有益的事情是种植树木，树木既可以提供阴凉，又能通过蒸发树叶水分降低空气温度。（如果你像凤凰城的人们一样生活在沙漠地区，最好是想办法利用废水保持树木的绿化。）在建筑环境方面有明智的选择，比如选择最佳的铺装材料和设计被动降温的庭院，还有普及白色屋顶；建筑条例需要更新，使这些措施更容易落实到位，法规也需要修改，以确保工人不会受到正午高温的危害。

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All these measures are easier to take when a city has resources to devote to them. In the developing world, where a lack of air conditioning makes heat all the more deadly, such resources are scarce. All the more need for leaders to take the issue seriously and for local politicians to see cooling plans as a way to compete for votes. Unfortunately, such a strategy works best in places where voters have already felt the consequences of failing to act. That makes studies which reveal that many places are at increasing risk of vicious heatwaves but have yet to experience one particularly troubling. Phoenix at least knows what to expect—and what it will have to go on expecting for decades to come.

当一个城市有资源投入时，采取行动就更容易。然而，发展中国家由于空调资源的稀缺，因此酷热更加致命。领导人更需要认真对待这个问题，当地政界人士也应将降温计划视为争取选民支持的一种方式。遗憾的是，在选民已经感受到不采取行动的后果的地方，这样的策略效果最好。这就使得那些揭示许多地方正面临越来越严重的热浪风险，但尚未经历过热浪的研究尤其令人担忧。至少凤凰城知道会发生什么，以及未来几十年将继续面对什么问题。