外刊 | Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working
Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working
Supply chains are becoming more tangled and opaque
今天这篇文章来自《经济学人》社论板块（Leaders）
1.拜登总统宣布对中贸易战的最新举措，即监管私营企业在中投资、禁止投资中国最敏感的技术
On August 9thPresident Joe Biden unveiled his latest weapon in America’s economic war with China. New rules will police investments made abroad by the private sector, and those into the most sensitive technologies in China will be banned.
The use of such curbs by the world’s strongest champion of capitalism is the latest sign of the profound shift in America’s economic policy as it contends with the rise of an increasingly assertive and threatening rival.
unveil <v.>公布
police <v.>监管
the private sector 私营企业
the most sensitive technologies包括但不限于核技术、生化技术、高级武器系统、网络安全和信息技术、空天技术、人工智能、先进制造技术等
curb <n.&v.>抑制
contend with 对付，斗争
assertive <adj.>独断的
2.美方希望通过限制中国军事尖端技术发展，以及建立可替代的供应链
For decades America cheered on the globalisation of trade and capital, which brought vast benefits in terms of enhanced efficiency and lower costs for consumers. But in a dangerous world, efficiency alone is no longer enough. In America, and across the West, China’s rise is bringing other aims to the fore.
Understandably, officials want to protect national security, by limiting China’s access to cutting-edge technology that could enhance its military might, and to build alternative supply chains in areas where China maintains a vice-like grip.
in terms of 在……方面
bring sth to the fore 使……处于显要地位，脱颖而出
cutting-edge technology 前沿科技，尖端技术
maintain a vice-like grip，“vicelike”可写作“viselike”，“保持强大控制力”的意思。
3.“去风险”措施会降低效率，专注于敏感产品可以降低损失
The result is a sprawl of tariffs, investment reviews and export controls aimed at China, first under the previous president, Donald Trump, and now Mr. Biden.
Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary, has travelled to Delhi and Hanoi to tout the benefits of “friendshoring”, signalling to company bosses that shifting away from China would be wise.
Although such “de-risking” measures would lower efficiency, the thinking goes, sticking to sensitive products would limit the damage. And the extra cost would be worth it, because America would be safer.
sprawl 蔓延，随意扩展
tariff 关税
friendshoring 友岸外包，是一个贸易术语，是指将供应链网络重点放在政治和经济上的盟国。类似的贸易术语还有：“在岸外包”（onshoring）、“回流”（reshoring）、“近岸外包”（nearshoring）、“离岸外包”（offshoring）等。
tout 兜售
signal 示意
de-risking measures 去风险措施
4.新规效果并不理想
The consequences of this new thinking are now becoming clear. Unfortunately, it is bringing neither resilience nor security. Supply chains have become more tangled and opaque as they have adapted to the new rules.
And, if you look closely, it becomes clear that America’s reliance on Chinese critical inputs remains. More worrying, the policy has had the perverse effect of pushing America’s allies closer to China.
resilience <n.>恢复
tangled <adj.>混乱的
opaque <adj.>不透明的
perverse <adj.>荒谬的，反常的
5.美国进口转向印度、墨西哥和东南亚国家
All this may come as a surprise, because, at first glance, the new policies look like a smashing success. Direct economic links between China and America are shrivelling.
In 2018 two-thirds of American imports from a group of “low-cost” Asian countries came from China; last year just over half did. Instead, America has turned towards India, Mexico and South-East Asia.
smash v.粉碎
a smashing success 大获成功
shrivel v.萎缩
6. 中国去年收到的境外投资少于印度和越南
Investment flows are adjusting, too. In 2016 Chinese firms invested a staggering $48bn in America; six years on, the figure had shrunk to a mere $3.1bn.
For the first time in a quarter of a century, China is no longer one of the top three investment destinations for most members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
For the best part of two decades, China claimed the lion’s share of new foreign-investment projects in Asia. Last year it received less than India or Vietnam.
staggering <adj.>难以置信的
shrink-shrank-shrunk <v.>收缩
the American Chamber of Commerce in China 中国美国商会
the lion’s share 指某物中最大或最好的一部分
7.尽管如此，美国仍然依赖中国的供应链
Dig deeper, though, and you find thatAmerica’s reliance on China remains intact. America may be redirecting its demand from China to other countries. But production in those places now relies more on Chinese inputs than ever.
As South-East Asia’s exports to America have risen, for instance, its imports of intermediate inputs from China have exploded. China’s exports of car parts to Mexico, another country that has benefited from American de-risking, have doubled over the past five years.
Research published by the IMF finds that even in advanced-manufacturing sectors, where America is keenest to shift away from China, the countries that have made most inroads into the American market are those with the closest industrial links to China.
Supply chains have become more complex, and trade has become more expensive. But China’s dominance is undiminished.
intact <adj.>原封不动的
intermediate inputs 中间产品
make inroads into market 打入市场
IMF（abbr. International Monetary Fund）国际货币基金组织
8.中国产品甚至会简单在第三方国家重新包装后进入美国
What is going on? In the most egregious cases, Chinese goods are simply being repackaged and sent via third countries to America.
At the end of 2022, America’s Department of Commerce found that four major solar suppliers based in South-East Asia were doing such minor processing of otherwise Chinese products that they were, in effect, circumventing tariffs on Chinese goods.
In other areas, such as rare-earth metals, China continues to provide inputs that are hard to replace.
egregious <adj.>极坏的
circumvent <vt.>设法避免
rare-earth metals 稀土金属
otherwise 原本的
such minor processing……that， “如此微小的加工，以至于实际上绕过了美国对中国商品的关税”
9.新规没能使供应链完全摆脱中国的影响
More often, though, the mechanism is benign. Free markets are simply adapting to find the cheapest way to supply goods to consumers. And in many cases China, with its vast workforce and efficient logistics, remains the cheapest supplier.
America’s new rules have the power to redirect its own trade with China. But they cannot rid the entire supply chain of Chinese influence.
redirect <v.>改方向
logistics <n.>物流
10.拜登总统的举措反而使其他进口国家与中国的经济联系更紧密
Much of the decoupling, then, is phoney. Worse, from Mr Biden’s perspective, his approach is also deepening the economic links between China and other exporting countries.
In so doing, it perversely pits their interests against America’s.
Even where governments are worried about the growing assertiveness of China, their commercial relationships with the biggest economy in Asia are deepening.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade deal signed in November 2020 by many South-East Asian countries and China, creates a sort of single market in precisely the intermediate goods in which trade has boomed in recent years.
de-coupling 脱钩
phoney （=phony）虚假的
perversely 反而
pit against 使对立
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership区域全面经济伙伴协定，由东盟10国和中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰共15个亚太国家签署。
11.接受中国投资和中间产品的贫穷国家不会支持美国
For many poorer countries, receiving Chinese investment and intermediate goods and exporting finished products to America is a source of jobs and prosperity.
America’s reluctance to support new trade agreements is one reason why they sometimes see it as an unreliable partner. If asked to choose between China and America, they might not side with Uncle Sam.
side with 支持
Putting the risk into de-risking12.
All this carries important lessons for American officials. They say that they want to be precise in how they guard against China using a “small yard and high fence”.
But without a clear sense of the trade-offs from their tariffs and restrictions, the risk is that each security scare makes the yard bigger and the fence taller.
The fact that the benefits have so far been illusory and the costs greater than expected underscores the need for laser focus.
trade-off 权衡
illusory <adj.>虚幻的
underscore <v.>强调，突显
laser focus <n.>专注，聚焦
13.
Moreover, the more selective the approach, the greater the likelihood that trading partners can be persuaded to reduce their reliance on China in the areas that really matter. Without it, de-risking will make the world not safer, but more dangerous.
欢迎指正，感谢阅读。
