气候科学（速成班科学史#45）--环境科学速成班EP2

Climate Science

This image is called The Blue Marble, and it was taken in 1972 during the Apollo 17 mission. It has become a symbol not only of cool space travel, but the environmental movement back here on the ground. Think about it, when you're on the Earth seems pretty dang big and solid, but when seen from far above, it's just a blue marble flexed with beautiful green, inspiring, isolated and not really all that big. And thanks to technologies like air travel, in the Internet and to a booming human population, it keeps feeling smaller. And thanks to technologies and a booming human population, it keeps losing all those all important green flux. Today, our topic is the history of climate science, which leads to some dark questions about the future of life on Earth.

Scientists tend to be conservative, not politically conservative, but careful, resistant to big claims..So evidence for the possible end of the living world took a while to be seen as such. One problem was the structure of modern science. Remember how those ancient Greek, indian and Chinese natural philosophers tended to study astronomy, math, the living world and human society all at once. By the 1900s, professional scientists had gone in the other direction. Special Ization scientists tended to focus on learning about one specific thing, often practically oriented thing. Another problem was actually epidemic. Studying weather patterns in one region is useful, but how do you study global climate? How many local patterns add up to a global one? And there are so many elements involved in the earth's systems? Solar radiation, human activity, carbon, nitrogen, water, non humans, how do you know which variables matter? In answering any given question? Big data suddenly becomes not a source of potential answers, but a serious problem. So how did we get here? English inventor Guy Calendar correctly predicted rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 1938. He analyzed measurements of temperatures from the 19th century. On correlating them with measurements of carbon dioxide. He saw that temperature had increased, and proposed that this was an effect of increasing CO2. Most scientists were skeptical, but Calendar died convinced he was onto something, and his work influenced a small number of scientists. In 1957, rebel published a paper with Han Sous suggesting that human emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2 might create a greenhouse effect. These heat trapping gases would be trapped in the atmosphere, not absorbed quickly enough by the oceans, which would cause global warming. Rebel also convinced the geochemist Charles Keeling to keep measuring atmospheric co concentrations at Manolo Observatory, starting in 1958. These measurements showed seasonal variation as well as a clear arc. Over time, the planet is warming, and CO2 is rising. This trend is called the keyling curve. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which has become the premier body for establishing just what is going on with the earth's climate. And in 1996, the governments of the world came together to ban chlorophlorocarbons, or cfcs, a group of odorless chemicals that were used in hair sprays, refrigerators and lots of other places, and that were causing a hole in the earth's protective ozone layer. And by the 2000s, many scientists had overcome their conservatism to speak out about global shifts in climate which were affecting living systems of all sorts, agriculture, cities and, you know, everything. In 2000, atmosphere chemists Paul Crutson coined a term for these global shifts, and however imperfect, it has stuck the anthropysine, or the Age of man. Some scholars have called into question the naming of this era after the human as if all humans are equally to blame. But if in some other pretty good contenders for the naming of this age, donna Harrowways, the Cathhula scene, or The Age of Science fictional badness, the man Throposine, or The Age of Dudes, which not so suddenly hints at the gender bias in science, and catching on with some historians, the capitalist scene, or the age of political economics. This is a fight among historians over how to discuss long duret history, or history across many millennia. It's also a fight among geologists about where to place the so called Golden Spikes, moments that represent shifts in the very makeup of the Earth, usually visible shifts in the fossil record. In fact, the Anthropocene is kind of a political fight about the intersection of geological epochs and human history. The problem with the Anthropocene is there are so many good candidates for the golden spike of a human epoch. Show us thought bubble 1st. There's the original fossil fuel coal, which was mind extensively in certain regions, starting in the late 1700s and ramping up seriously in the late 1800s the Industrial Revolution. 2nd there's radioactive material in the form of Stratum 90, which could be traced all over the world soon after the Trinity atomic bomb test, the 1st of many such tests. So this date for the beginning of the Anthropocene would be the specific date of july 16 1945, the day of the Trinity test and the birth of the Cold War. 3rd, there's plastic, steel and concrete, but especially plastic. Humans built stuff, and even had plastic before World War Two. But development took off at an unprecedented pace around 1960. This great acceleration saw rapid, often exponential growth in human population, use of fresh water, ability to produce and move food, greenhouse gas emissions, temperature of the earth's surface, and consumption of all kinds of natural resources. The period of the Great Acceleration also gave rise to the 1st megacities, or urban areas, with over ten In reaction to massive urbanization, humans have also set aside more land as national parks or greenways, creating a landscape dominated by industrial agriculture and cities, but also sporting well defined breaks of deep green. All of these changes can be seen in the earth's geological record, and they all symbolize how some humans have changed the physical world. But perhaps the best candidate is for chicken bones. With more than 23 billion alive at any time, chickens whose bodies have been heavily designed by humans are the most common terrestrial vertebrate species on the planet. Aliens visiting the ruins of Earth could reasonably conclude from our fossil record that the only life form that ever mattered on this planet was the chicken. Thanks thought bubble. But the Anthropocene is only one way of viewing geological change in human disruption of natural cycles. Also influential are the planetary boundaries, a set of nine specific ranges for natural processes within which humans can definitely live. These include measures such as climate change, ocean acidification and ozone depletion, but also the genetic diversity of life on Earth, and how much land is converted to crop land. So we can't talk about climate disruption without mentioning the pushback, even though the vast majority of scientists realize that humans have had a tremendous impact on the Earth. Politically conservative talk shows run stories about how there's no consensus. So where did this idea come from? In 2010, geologist and historian of science naomi Orrescus and NASA historian Eric Conway, showed that fossil fuel companies had hired some of the same PR agents and strategists who had worked for tobacco companies decades earlier to invent climate denial, that is, to create doubt about the science that was not doubted by scientists. Ultimately, climate science isn't just about long term shifts in the movement of carbon, water, heat and other natural phenomenon. The big question for scientists in the capitalist scene include epistemic, technical and moral ones. Epistemic questions include how fast are humans, especially humans, working with capitalism, changing which ecosystems, and in what ways? E.G. we know that many important pollinators, such as honeybees, bumblebees and butterflies, are dying out, which is sad, but also potentially an enormous problem. And we have some ideas as to why a major causes off target damage from pesticides, which no surprise, literally are made to kill bugs, which pesticides affect which bugs in which ways? Are there safe options? Can we test lots of different ways of doing agriculture and see which ones are most bug friendly and which forms of agriculture are most likely to erod soil from the land in which are helping build the soil back up. Basically, what kinds of knowledge do we need to make to day in a connected, fragile and increasingly disrupted world? In terms of technical questions, earth scientists are increasingly being pushed from the role of description to recommending action. Some prominent scientists are calling for governments to seriously consider geoengineering, also known as climate engineering, the intentional global scale transformation of the environment to combat global warming and other disruption. Some geo engineering would be relatively uncontroversial, like creating more forests. But other ideas have been hotly debated, like fertilizing the ocean with iron to accelerate the growth of algae, thus capturing more CO2 from the atmosphere. But perhaps the biggest shift in professional science in today is moral Who should pay for solutions to global scale problems, such as sea level rise, in global warming? Everyone, or only the people who most contributed to the problem. The Yellow Vest movement in France is a recent example of this conflict. People across the country were subject to a new tax on fuel in order to help lower carbon emissions, but many of the working poor, especially in more rural areas, simply couldn't afford to pay more to get around, and riots broke out. And think about all of the scientists working on topics related to the environment. But maybe on the wrong side of history. What if you're a professional geologist and Exxon, BP or Shell hired you to find more fossil fuels to extract, should you not do the science you've already spent a decade getting really good at? Isn't the portrait of doomsday, but a call to reflect on science's strengths and its limits. Science alone can't answer tough questions about how humanity should address climate disruption, and who should pay for potential solutions. One thing is sir, whether we call it the anthropocene, the capitalist scene, or the Kathu the scene, the new era in which some humans have dragged the blue marble will forever change how we make and share knowledge and tools. Next time, we'll finish the series with a look at how science is gendered. Not only how important women have been to the history of science, and how difficult it is to sometimes tell their stories, but also how our understandings of the natural world reflect our ideas about humanity. Crash course, history of science is filmed in the Doctor Shale Sea Kinney studio in Msoula, montana, and it's made with the help all of these nice people. And our animation team is thought Cafe. Crash Course is a complexly production. If you want to keep imagining the world complexly with us, you can check out some of our other channels, like Animal Wonders, the Art Assignment and Sicho psych And if you would like to keep Crash Course free for everybody forever, you can support the series on Patrion, a crowd funding platform that allows you to support the content you love. Thank you to all of our patrons for making Crash Course possible with their continue support. 

这张照片被称为“蓝色大理石”，拍摄于1972年阿波罗17号执行任务期间。它不仅是酷炫的太空旅行的象征，也是地球上环保运动的象征。想想看，当你在地球上的时候，它看起来又大又坚固，但从高处看，它只是一个蓝色的大理石，弯曲着美丽的绿色，鼓舞人心，孤立的，并不是那么大。由于航空旅行、互联网和人口激增等技术的发展，它让人感觉越来越小。由于科技的发展和人口的增长，它一直在失去所有这些重要的绿色通量。今天，我们的主题是气候科学史，它引出了一些关于地球生命未来的黑暗问题。

科学家往往是保守的，不是政治上的保守，而是谨慎的，抵制大的主张。因此，生命世界可能终结的证据需要一段时间才能得到认可。一个问题是现代科学的结构。还记得那些古希腊、印度和中国的自然哲学家是如何倾向于同时研究天文学、数学、生物世界和人类社会的吗？到了20世纪，专业科学家们已经走上了另一个方向。特殊化科学家倾向于专注于学习一件具体的事情，通常是面向实际的事情。另一个问题实际上是流行病。研究一个地区的天气模式是有用的，但如何研究全球气候呢？多少个局部模式加起来就是一个全球模式？地球系统中有这么多元素？太阳辐射，人类活动，碳，氮，水，非人类，你怎么知道哪些变量是重要的？在回答任何给定的问题时？大数据突然间不再是潜在答案的来源，而是一个严重的问题。那么我们是怎么走到这一步的呢？1938年，英国发明家盖伊·Calendar正确地预测了大气中二氧化碳浓度的上升。他分析了19世纪以来的温度测量数据。将它们与二氧化碳的测量相关联。他发现温度升高了，并提出这是二氧化碳增加的结果。大多数科学家都持怀疑态度，但Calendar去世时确信他是对的，他的工作影响了一小部分科学家。1957年，rebel和HanSous发表了一篇论文，指出人类排放二氧化碳等温室气体可能会造成温室效应。这些吸热气体会被困在大气中，不能被海洋迅速吸收，从而导致全球变暖。Rebel还说服了地球化学家CharlesKeeling从1958年开始在Manolo天文台持续测量大气co浓度。这些测量结果显示出季节变化和明显的弧线。随着时间的推移，地球正在变暖，二氧化碳正在上升。这种趋势被称为keyling曲线。1988年，世界气象组织(WorldMeteorologicalOrganization)成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange，简称IPCC)，该机构已成为确定地球气候状况的首要机构。1996年，世界各国政府联合起来禁止使用氯氟烃(简称cfcs)，这是一种无味的化学物质，用于发胶、冰箱和许多其他地方，它会在地球的臭氧层上造成一个洞。到了2000年代，许多科学家已经克服了他们的保守主义，大声说出全球气候变化正在影响各种各样的生命系统，农业，城市，你知道，一切。2000年，大气化学家保罗·克特森(PaulCrutson)为这些全球变化创造了一个术语，尽管不完美，但它还是被称为“人类时代”(anthropysine)。一些学者质疑以人类的名字命名这个时代，好像所有的人类都有责任。但如果在其他一些很有可能命名这个时代的竞争者中，唐娜·哈罗威斯，卡苏拉场景，或者是虚构的邪恶科学时代，男人Throposine，或者是男人的时代，这并不那么突然地暗示了科学中的性别偏见，并且引起了一些历史学家的注意，资本主义场景，或者是政治经济学时代。这是历史学家之间关于如何讨论漫长的历史或跨越数千年的历史的争论。这也是地质学家之间关于所谓的“金尖峰”的争论，这些时刻代表着地球构成的变化，通常是化石记录中可见的变化。事实上，人类世是一场关于地质时代和人类历史交集的政治斗争。人类世的问题在于，人类时代的黄金尖峰有太多好的候选点了。先让我们看看思想泡泡。一种是原始的化石燃料煤，在某些地区广泛使用，从18世纪末开始，到19世纪末工业革命时，煤炭的使用急剧增加。第二，有放射性以90层形式存在的物质；在三位一体原子弹试验之后不久，全世界都可以追踪到这一点，三位一体原子弹试验是许多此类试验中的第一次。所以这人类世开始的日期应该是1945年7月16日，三位一体试验和冷战开始的那一天第三，有塑料、钢铁和混凝土，但尤其是塑料。人类建造东西，甚至在第二次世界大战之前有塑料。但在1960年左右，发展以前所未有的速度起飞。这种巨大的加速导致了人口、淡水的使用、生产和运输食物的能力、温室气体的排放、地球表面的温度以及各种自然资源的消耗的迅速增长，通常是指数增长。大加速时期也产生了第一批特大城市，或城市地区，超过10个作为对大规模城市化的反应，人类也留出了更多的土地作为国家公园或绿道，创造了一个以工业农业和城市为主的景观，但也有清晰的深绿色。所有这些变化都可以在地球的地质记录中看到，它们都象征着一些人类如何改变了物理世界。但也许最好的选择是鸡骨头。任何时候都有超过230亿只活着的鸡，它们的身体被人类精心设计过，是地球上最常见的陆生脊椎动物。参观地球废墟的外星人可以合理地从我们的化石记录中得出结论:在这个星球上唯一重要的生命形式是鸡。谢谢思想泡泡。但人类世只是观察人类破坏自然循环的地质变化的一种方式。同样有影响力的还有地球边界，这是一组人类绝对可以生活的自然过程的九个特定范围。这些措施包括气候变化、海洋酸化和臭氧消耗等措施，还包括地球上生命的遗传多样性，以及有多少土地被转化为农田。因此，尽管绝大多数科学家都意识到人类对地球产生了巨大的影响，但谈到气候破坏，我们就不能不提到这种阻力。政治上保守的谈话节目讲述了如何没有共识。那么这个想法是从哪里来的呢？2010年，地质学家和科学历史学家naomiOrrescus和NASA历史学家EricConway指出，化石燃料公司雇佣了几十年前为烟草公司工作过的公关代理人和战略家来制造否认气候变化的说法，也就是说，对科学家没有怀疑过的科学产生怀疑。归根结底，气候科学不仅仅是关于碳、水、热量和其他自然现象运动的长期变化。资本主义领域的科学家面临的大问题包括认知、技术和道德问题。认知问题包括人类，尤其是人类，与资本主义合作的速度有多快，改变了哪些生态系统，以何种方式改变？我们知道许多重要的传粉媒介，如蜜蜂、大黄蜂和蝴蝶，正在灭绝，这很可悲，但也可能是一个巨大的问题。我们有一些关于为什么杀虫剂会造成偏离目标的伤害的想法，毫无疑问，杀虫剂是用来杀死虫子的，哪种杀虫剂会以哪种方式影响哪种虫子？有安全的选择吗？我们可以测试许多不同的农业方式，看看哪些是最适合虫子的，哪些农业形式最有可能侵蚀土壤，帮助土壤恢复。基本上，在当今这个相互联系、脆弱且日益混乱的世界里，我们需要什么样的知识？在技术问题方面，地球科学家正日益被从描述的角色推向建议行动的角色。一些著名科学家呼吁各国政府认真考虑地球工程，也被称为气候工程，这是一种全球范围的环境改造，以对抗全球变暖和其他破坏。一些地球工程相对来说没有争议，比如创造更多的森林。但其他一些想法也引发了激烈的争论，比如向海洋施肥以加速藻类的生长，从而从大气中捕获更多的二氧化碳。但是，当今专业科学领域最大的转变或许是道德问题。谁应该为解决全球规模的问题买单，比如海平面上升、全球变暖？每个人，或者只对问题做出最大贡献的人。法国的“黄背心”运动就是最近的一个例子。为了帮助降低碳排放，全国各地的人们都要缴纳新的燃料税，但许多贫困的劳动者，尤其是农村地区的劳动者，根本负担不起更多的出行费用，于是骚乱爆发了。想想所有研究环境相关课题的科学家。但也许站在了历史错误的一边。如果你是一名专业地质学家，而埃克森、英国石油或壳牌雇佣你来寻找更多的化石燃料来开采，你应该不做你已经花了十年时间真正擅长的科学研究吗？不是对世界末日的描绘，而是对科学的力量和局限性的反思。科学本身无法回答人类应该如何应对气候破坏以及谁应该为潜在的解决方案买单等棘手问题。有一件事是，先生，不管我们叫它人类世，资本主义时代，还是卡图的场景，新时代的其中一些人类拖动的蓝色弹珠将永远改变我们创造和分享知识和工具的方式。下次，我们将以科学是如何被性别化来结束这个系列。不仅仅是女性在历史上的重要性讲述他们的故事是多么困难，以及我们对自然世界的理解如何反映了我们对人性的看法。《科学史速成班》在蒙大拿州姆苏拉的ShaleSeaKinney博士工作室拍摄，得到了这些好心人的帮助。我们的动画团队是thoughtCafe。速成班是一个复杂的产品。如果你想继续和我们一起想象这个复杂的世界，你可以看看我们的其他频道，比如动物奇观、艺术作业和精神科心理。如果你想让速成班永远免费向所有人开放，你可以在Patrion上支持这个系列，这是一个众筹平台，可以让你支持你喜欢的内容。感谢所有的赞助人对速成班的持续支持。