经济学权威期刊International Economic Review 2023年第1期
International Economic Review 2023年第1期
Volume64, Issue1, February 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.OPENING THE FLOODGATES: PARTIAL AND GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ADJUSTMENTS TO LABOR IMMIGRATION
打开闸门:劳动力移民的部分均衡和一般均衡调整
Bernt Bratsberg, Andreas Moxnes, Oddbjørn Raaum, Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe
We investigate the impact of a large immigration shock on occupational wages. We develop a general equilibrium model where individuals sort into occupations and confront testable hypotheses with data. To identify the effect of the labor supply shock, we introduce a novel instrument that exploits that immigrants systematically sort into different occupations than natives. We study the immigration wave to Norway after the Eastern enlargement and find that immigration led to lower relative occupational wages. A quantification of the general equilibrium shows welfare effects of immigration close to zero for natives, but negative effects for the pre-existing population of immigrants.
我们考察了大规模移民冲击对职业工资的影响。我们开发了一个一般均衡模型，其中个人分类到职业，并面对数据可检验的假设。为了确定劳动力供给冲击的影响，我们引入了一种新的工具，利用移民系统地将其分为不同的职业，而不是本国人。我们研究了东扩后挪威的移民潮，发现移民导致了相对较低的职业工资。对一般均衡的量化表明，移民对本国人口的福利效应接近于零，但对已存在的移民人口的负面影响。
2.MEDIEVAL MATCHING MARKETS
中世纪的配对市场
Lars Boerner, Daniel Quint
We study the regulation of brokerage in wholesale markets in premodern Central Western Europe. Examining 1,804 sets of rules from 82 cities, we find brokerage was primarily a centralized matchmaking mechanism. Brokerage was more common in towns with larger populations, better access to sea ports and trade routes, and greater political autonomy. Brokers' fee structures varied systematically: price-based fees were more common for highly heterogeneous goods, quantity-based fees for more homogeneous goods. We show theoretically that this was broadly consistent with total surplus maximization, and that brokerage was more valuable in markets with unequal numbers of buyers and sellers.
我们研究批发市场在前现代中欧的经纪监管。通过对来自82个城市的1804套规则的考察，我们发现，经纪主要是一种集中的撮合机制。经纪业务在人口较多、更容易进入海港和贸易路线以及更大的政治自主权的城镇更为常见。经纪人的收费结构存在系统性差异:对于高度异质性的商品，基于价格的收费更为普遍，而对于同质性较强的商品，基于数量的收费更为普遍。我们从理论上表明，这与总盈余最大化大致一致，在买卖双方数量不平等的市场上，经纪更有价值。
3.THE IMPACT OF LOCAL FISCAL AND MIGRATION POLICIES ON HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND INEQUALITY IN CHINA
地方财政和移民政策对中国人力资本积累与不平等的影响
Holger Sieg, Chamna Yoon, Jipeng Zhang
We develop and estimate a spatial overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households to study the feasibility of a recently proposed reform of internal migration policies that offers the potential of decreasing inequality within China. We find that this policy change significantly increases the college attainment of migrant children born in rural areas and, therefore, promises to increase the number of high-skill workers. However, it requires significant tax increases to offset the reduction of the positive fiscal externalities provided by migrants.
我们开发并估计了一个包含异质家庭的空间代际重叠模型，以研究最近提出的内部移民政策改革的可行性，该改革提供了减少中国内部不平等的潜力。我们发现，这一政策变化显著提高了出生在农村的流动人口子女的大学学历，从而有望增加高技能工人的数量。然而，这需要大幅增税，以抵消移民带来的积极财政外部性的降低。
3.ENDOGENOUS PROCYCLICAL LIQUIDITY, CAPITAL REALLOCATION, AND q
内生性顺周期流动性、资本再配置和托宾q
Melanie Cao, Shouyong Shi
Capital reallocation is procyclical and an economic boom has a cleansing effect by shifting the distribution of firms from low quality to high quality. We explain these facts by modeling search frictions for used capital in the business cycle. The article characterizes the stochastic equilibrium analytically to prove that the liquidity and the price of reallocated capital are procyclical endogenously. We calibrate the model and construct proxies in the data for the unemployment rate of capital and the time on the market. These two variables have a strong positive relationship in both the model and the data.
资本重新配置是顺周期的，经济繁荣具有清洁效应，将企业的分布从低质量转移到高质量。我们通过对商业周期中使用资本的搜索摩擦进行建模来解释这些事实。本文通过对随机均衡的分析刻画，证明了流动性和再配置资本的价格具有内生性的顺周期性。我们对模型进行了校准，并在数据中构建了资本失业率和上市时间的代理。这两个变量在模型和数据中都存在较强的正相关关系。
4.ADVERSE SELECTION, LEARNING, AND COMPETITIVE SEARCH
逆向选择、学习和竞争搜索
Karin Mayr-Dorn
I develop a model that allows for an analysis of the effects of time on adverse selection in the presence of search frictions. I find that, as a firm takes longer to adjust a worker's contract in response to learning about his type, inefficient overwork during the time before wage adjustment (probation) decreases. This provides a rationale for an optimal (minimum) probation period of about one month in the baseline scenario. Optimal probation duration varies with the degree of search frictions, the cost of effort, the relative productivity of different types of workers, and minimum wage regulations.
我开发了一个模型，用于分析在存在搜索摩擦的情况下，时间对逆向选择的影响。我发现，由于企业需要更长的时间来调整工人的合同以了解他的类型，因此，在工资调整(试用期)之前的时间内，低效率的过度工作减少。这为基线方案中大约一个月的最佳(最低)试用期提供了理论依据。最佳试用期因搜索摩擦程度、努力成本、不同类型工人的相对生产率和最低工资规定而异。
5.MEETINGS AND MECHANISMS
会面和交易机制
Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier, Ronald Wolthoff
This article shows how meeting frictions affect equilibrium trading mechanisms and allocations in an environment where identical sellers post mechanisms to compete for buyers with ex ante heterogeneous private valuations. Multiple submarkets can emerge, each consisting of all sellers posting a particular mechanism and the buyers who visit those sellers. Under mild conditions, high-valuation buyers are all located in the same submarket, and low valuation buyers can be in: (i) the same submarket, (ii) a different submarket, and (iii) a mixture of (i) and (ii). The decentralized equilibrium is efficient when sellers can post auctions with reserve prices or entry fees.
本文展示了在一个相同的卖方通过事前异质性的私人估值来竞争买方的环境中，会面摩擦如何影响均衡交易机制和分配。可以出现多个子市场，每个子市场由所有发布特定机制的卖家和访问这些卖家的买家组成。在温和的条件下，高估值买家都位于同一子市场，低估值买家可以位于:(i)同一子市场，(ii)不同的子市场，以及(iii) (i)和(ii)的混合。当卖家可以以保留价格或进入费用发布拍卖时，去中心化均衡是有效的。
6.PARENTAL TIME INVESTMENT AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY
父母的时间投入与代际流动性
Minchul Yum
This article constructs an overlapping generations general equilibrium model to explore the extent to which heterogeneity in time investment shapes intergenerational mobility of lifetime income. The calibrated model successfully accounts for untargeted distributional aspects of income mobility. Counterfactual exercises show that removing heterogeneity in parental time investment reduces intergenerational persistence by around 7–8% for early childhood but only marginally in later childhood. Policy experiments find that an asset-tested subsidy for parental monetary investments in early childhood can raise intergenerational mobility in a cost-effective way, though it reduces mobility substantially if given to parents with older school-aged children.
本文通过构建代际重叠一般均衡模型，探讨时间投资异质性对终身收入代际流动性的影响程度。校准后的模型成功地考虑了收入流动性的非目标分配方面。反事实实验表明，消除父母时间投资的异质性会使儿童早期的代际持久性降低约7-8%，但对儿童后期的影响甚微。政策实验发现，对父母在幼儿时期的货币投资进行资产测试的补贴可以以一种具有成本效益的方式提高代际流动性，但如果向有学龄儿童的父母提供这种补贴，则会大幅降低流动性。
7.INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS: PRIVATE VERSUS PUBLIC FLOWS IN DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
国际资本流动:发展中国家和发达国家的私人与公共资本流动
Yun Jung Kim, Jing Zhang
Empirically, net capital inflows are procyclical in developed countries and countercyclical in developing countries. Private inflows are procyclical and public inflows are countercyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) inflows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents overborrow because of the pecuniary externality arising from these constraints. The government saves to reduce aggregate debt, making the economy resilient to adverse shocks. Differences in borrowing constraints and shock processes across countries explain the empirical patterns of capital inflows.
从经验上看，资本净流入在发达国家是顺周期的，在发展中国家是反周期的。在这两类国家中，私人资本流入是顺周期性的，而公共资本流入是反周期性的。发达(发展中)国家私人(公共)资金流入占主导地位，这导致了净流入的差异。我们利用面临借贷限制的小型开放经济的两部门模型对这些模式进行了合理化。私人代理人过度借贷，是因为这些约束所产生的金钱外部性。政府储蓄以减少总债务，使经济能够抵御不利冲击。各国借款约束和冲击过程的差异解释了资本流入的经验模式。
8.THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF COVID-19 AND OPTIMAL MITIGATION POLICIES
COVID-19的分配效应和最优缓解政策
Sewon Hur
This article develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent–life cycle–epidemiological model that is used to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19 and mitigation policies. First, a stay-at-home subsidy is preferred to a lockdown because it reduces deaths by more and output by less. Second, Pareto-improving policies can reduce deaths by nearly 45% without any reduction in output relative to no public mitigation. Finally, it is possible to simultaneously improve public health and economic outcomes, suggesting that debates regarding a trade-off between economic and health objectives may be misguided.
本文开发了一个定量的异质代理-生命周期-流行病学模型，用于研究COVID-19和缓解政策的总体和分配后果。首先，与封锁相比，居家补贴更受青睐，因为它能更多地降低死亡人数，更少地降低产出。第二，相对于没有公共缓解措施，改善帕累托的政策可以在不减少产出的情况下将死亡率降低近45%。最后，有可能同时改善公共卫生和经济成果，这表明关于经济目标和卫生目标之间取舍的辩论可能是错误的。
9.INEQUALITY AND PANEL INCOME CHANGES: CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBILITIES AND IMPOSSIBILITIES
不平等和面板收入变化:可能性和不可能性的条件
Robert Duval-Hernández, Gary S. Fields, George H. Jakubson
Income changes in an economy are usually assessed through the changes over time in cross-sectional variables such as economy-wide inequality. An alternative is to use panel data to gauge income changes among identified income recipients. In this article, we analyze these two approaches taken together, each measured in multiple ways. We establish that under specific conditions, it is impossible to have falling inequality together with divergent panel income changes. We also provide conditions explaining when rising inequality can arise together with convergent panel changes. We provide the intuition behind these results and show when such results fail to hold.
一个经济体的收入变化通常通过跨部门变量(如整个经济体的不平等)随时间的变化来评估。另一种方法是使用面板数据来衡量已确定的收入接受者的收入变化。在本文中，我们综合分析这两种方法，每一种方法都以多种方式进行测量。我们确定，在特定条件下，不可能在不平等下降的同时出现不同的面板收入变化。我们还提供了条件，解释什么时候不平等加剧可以与趋同的面板变化一起出现。我们提供了这些结果背后的直觉，并显示了当这些结果不成立时。
10.GROUPED VARIATION IN FACTOR SHARES: AN APPLICATION TO MISALLOCATION
要素份额的分组变异:错配的一个应用
Jose Asturias, Jack Rossbach
A striking feature of microlevel plant data is the presence of significant variation in factor cost shares across plants within an industry. We develop a methodology based on cluster analysis to decompose cost shares into idiosyncratic and group-specific components. We apply our methodology to Chilean plant-level data and find that group-specific variation accounts for approximately one-third of the variation in cost shares. We study the implications of these groups in cost shares on the gains from eliminating misallocation. We place bounds on their importance and find that ignoring them can overstate the gains from eliminating misallocation by up to one-third .
微观层面工厂数据的一个显著特征是，在一个行业内，不同工厂之间的要素成本份额存在显著差异。我们开发了一种基于聚类分析的方法，将成本份额分解为特质和群体特定的组成部分。我们将我们的方法应用于智利工厂层面的数据，发现特定群体的变化约占成本份额变化的三分之一。我们研究了这些群体在成本分担方面对消除错配收益的影响。我们为它们的重要性设定了界限，发现忽视它们可能会将消除错配带来的收益夸大三分之一。
11.STORABLE GOOD MARKET WITH INTERTEMPORAL COST VARIATIONS
具有跨期成本变化的可储存商品市场
Fabio Antoniou, Raffaele Fiocco
We investigate a firm's dynamic pricing policy in a storable good market where the cost of production varies over time. In anticipation of a cost increase, the firm selects its prices to affect consumer storage. Price dynamics hinge upon the curvature of demand and the magnitude of the consumer storage cost. When demand is not too convex, the consumers' reluctance to store leads the firm to reduce prices to stimulate consumer storage. This shapes the firm's cost pass-through and the price commitment effects. Our analysis provides a novel explanation for the well-documented puzzling patterns of incomplete and negative cost pass-through.
我们研究了在生产成本随时间变化的可储存商品市场中公司的动态定价策略。在预期成本增加的情况下，该公司选择其价格来影响消费者的存储。价格动态取决于需求曲率和消费者存储成本的大小。当需求不是太凸时，消费者不愿意存储，导致企业降低价格以刺激消费者存储。这就形成了企业的成本传递和价格承诺效应。我们的分析为充分记录的不完全和负成本传递的令人困惑的模式提供了一个新颖的解释。
12.IRREVERSIBILITY AND MONITORING IN DYNAMIC GAMES: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE
动态博弈中的不可逆性和监控:实验证据
Eungik Lee, Andrew Choi, Syngjoo Choi, Yves Guéron
This article provides experimental evidence on the impacts of irreversibility and imperfect monitoring on the efficiency and the equity of a repeated public goods game. We find that irreversibility and imperfect monitoring both lead to inefficient and unequal outcomes through different channels. Irreversibility lowers public goods contribution in earlier periods and makes the initial-period contribution gap between two players long-lasting. Imperfect monitoring hampers conditional cooperation and persistently reduces group contribution. A finite mixture estimation with conditional cooperators provides a coherent account of the treatment effects.
本文就不可逆性和不完善监控对重复公共产品博弈效率和公平性的影响提供了实验证据。我们发现，不可逆性和不完善的监测都会通过不同的渠道导致低效和不平等的结果。不可逆性降低了前期的公共品贡献，使得前期双方的贡献差距持续存在。不完善的监督阻碍了有条件的合作，持续减少了团队的贡献。有限混合估计与条件合作提供了一个连贯的帐户处理效果。
13.GAMING A SELECTIVE ADMISSIONS SYSTEM
利用选择性录取系统
Frances Xu Lee, Wing Suen
A university uses both early-stage selection outcome (high-school affiliation) and late-stage admission test outcome (standardized test scores) to select students. We use this model to study policies that have been proposed to combat inefficient gaming in college admissions. Increasing university enrollment size can exacerbate gaming and worsen the selection outcome. Abolishing standardized tests for university admissions increases gaming targeting high-school admissions and worsens the selection outcome, whereas eliminating high-school ability sorting may improve the university selection outcome under some cost conditions of gaming. Committing to a lower-powered selection scheme can improve the selection outcome by reducing gaming behaviors.
大学在选拔学生时，会同时使用前期选拔结果(高中所属学校)和后期入学考试结果(标准化考试成绩)。我们使用这个模型来研究旨在打击大学招生中低效博弈的政策。扩大大学招生规模会加剧博弈，并使选择结果恶化。取消大学录取的标准化考试增加了针对高中录取的游戏，并恶化了选择结果，而取消高中能力排序可能会在某些游戏成本条件下改善大学选择结果。采用低功耗的选择方案可以通过减少游戏行为来改善选择结果。
