【龙腾网】导致德国输掉二战的关键失误是什么？（上）
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What was the single most critical mistake that led to Germany''s defeat during World War II?
导致德国输掉二战的关键失误是什么？（上）
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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：wolface 转载请注明出处
Kelly La Rue, Veteran
Germany lost for the same reason Germany started the war, because Hitler was in charge. Speer described Hitler as an incompetent, unprofessional, self-taught layman: "Without any sense of the complexities of any great task, he boldly assumed one function after another." Inside the Third Reich
德国战败的原因，与德国发动战争的原因是一样的，那就是——希特勒的掌权。阿尔伯特·斯佩尔（装备部长以及帝国经济领导人，译者注）曾认为，希特勒不过是一位不称职、不专业并自学成才的门外汉罢了，而且在第三帝国内“希特勒在没有意识到那些重大任务复杂性的情况下，就大胆地承担起一个又一个职责。”
Invading Russia might be Hitler''s biggest mistake but there are other important miscalculations. Some are possibly more egregious than Operation Barbarossa.
入侵苏联可能是希特勒犯下的最大错误，但是，他也存在其它重要的误判，其中，很多误判甚至比“巴巴罗萨行动”行动的后果还要严重。
He declared war on the United States, the single greatest industrial power in the world. The decision borders on the stupid. One historian says Hitler made this decision in a moment of absent mindedness. It is ironic that Churchill''s greatest Christmas present came from Hitler. Churchill said once the US was on board he knew Hitler was finished. Germany declares war on the United States — History.com This Day in History — 12/11/1941 The entire population of the United States, under threat from the Japanese as well, became single minded in their pursuit of victory over both aggressors. For the first time ever women entered the workforce in huge numbers and proved once and for all they could do a man''s work and do it well.
希特勒向这世界上工业能力最强的国家——美国宣战，这一决定是十分愚蠢的。记得有一位历史学家曾说过，希特勒在做出这个决定时是心不在焉的。令人感到讽刺的是，正是希特勒的错误，成为了丘吉尔最为珍贵的圣诞节礼物。丘吉尔曾说过，当美国也参与其中的时候，他知道，希特勒玩蛋了。在历史上的今天，1941年12月11日，德国对美国宣战，于是，仍然面临日本威胁的美国，全国人民都同心协力要战胜这两个入侵者。大量的女性涌入劳动力市场，这还是有史以来第一次，她们证明，女性完全可以胜任男人的工作，而且表现地很好。
Isolationism was a thing of the past as men enisted en masse.
孤立主义已经成为过去，因为人们都开始团结起来。
While the men fought the women built the war machines.
当男人们在前线作战时，女人们就去建造战争机器。
Failing to finish the British and French in 1940 at Dunkirk. Hitler''s decision to halt the advance of armor at Goring''s urging who wanted to prove the Luftwatte''s mettle. The decision was mysterious to German high command. Then Britain surprised the Germans with the most successful sea evacuation in history. A disaster was averted by Hitler''s decision. 215,000 British and 140,000 French, Polish, and Belgians were rescued over a nine day period under heavy aerial assault. As a result of the inspired rescue British morale soared and the nation was united in a belief they could prevail against the Nazis. If this wasn''t enough the American public was galvanized by the example of British pluck and courage as public opinion swung towards support of Britain. A solid majority now backed a peacetime draft and rearmament and Roosevelt finally had the public support necessary for the Lend-Lease act. This was to be the first of many of Hitler''s blunders and a far more important one than anyone could have foreseen as two nations, not one, together prepared for war. Hitler was proving himself to be his own worst enemy and it happened here, at Dunkirk. Battle of Dunkirk
德国在1940年未能在敦刻尔克歼灭英国和法国军队。戈林急着想要测试德国空军的勇气，于是希特勒决定停止装甲部队的前进步伐。对于德国高官而言，这个决定实在是太不可思议了。然后，英国发动了历史上最成功的海上撤离行动，这让德国人着实大吃一惊。受到这次撤退行动的鼓舞，英国人士气高涨，整个国家都团结起来，他们相信自己能够战胜纳粹德国。如果这一点还不够，接下来，美国的舆论也开始转向支持英国，而美国人民都被英国人的勇气所激励。于是，大多数人都支持在和平时期进行征兵和重整军备，而罗斯福也最终获得了通过《租借法案》所需的公众支持。这只是希特勒众多错误中的一个，但却是一个可预见而且更为严重的错误，因为，从现在开始，有两个国家（而非一个）同时开始备战对抗德国。希特勒的种种行为证明，他就是德国最大的敌人，而这一切就发生在敦刻尔克战役中。
Brits rallied using any boat available to bring home their boys.
英国人利用任何可用的船只将他们的孩子们带回家。
Night became the preferred time to cross the channel.
夜晚成为了英军穿越海峡的最佳时机。
Hitler ignored staff advice that the invasion of Russia would be an economic disaster for Germany.
德国官员认为，入侵苏联对德国而言将会是一场经济灾难，而希特勒却对此并不理会。
Hitler along with his staff grossly underestimated the Soviet unx''s industrial might, its ability to mobilize troops, and its weaponry. The Germans were stunned when the Soviets rolled out a capable tank that could outgun their tanks. The PPD40 submachine gun followed by the inexpensive PPSh with its high rate of fire and large magazine turned the Soviet soldier into an aggressive and deadly fighting machine. Because the weapon was only suitable for close quarter fighting it brought the Soviet soldier out from behind their barriers to engage the enemy while snipers took out German soldiers from a distance.
希特勒和他的下属官员们都严重低估了苏联的工业能力、军队动员能力和武器设备。当苏联人生产出火力竟然超过德国的坦克时，德国人都惊呆了。PPD-40冲锋枪及廉价的波波莎冲锋枪具有极高的射击速度和超大弹鼓，它们把苏联红军打造成为了可怕且致命的战斗机器。由于这种武器只适用于近距离作战，苏联红军不得不从掩体里冲出来攻击敌人，而这时，苏联狙击手就能够趁机在远距离上攻击德国士兵。
At a thousand rounds per minute the PPSh41 was deadly leading Germans to pick it up for their own use. It was so popular with German troops the German high command developed a program to modify abandoned PPSh41 guns to use German ammunition and reissued it to their troops as the MP41
拥有每分钟一千发子弹射速的PPSh41冲锋枪成为了致命武器，结果，很多德国士兵都在战场上捡起这种枪供自己使用。这种武器在德军中十分受欢迎，以至于，德国高官成立一个项目来改进这些被抛弃的PPSh41冲锋枪，从而德军可以使用德国的弹药，并将这些枪支作为MP41重新分发给他们的军队。
The stick magazine differentiated the German MP41 from the Russian version and helped prevent panicked Germans from firing on their own troops.
通过采用长条形弹夹，德军将德国版MP41和苏联版枪支区分开来，从而避免战场上惊慌失措的德国士兵误伤自己人。
The innovative T-34 completely surprised the Germans who assumed subhumans couldn''t design anything better than what they had. The design influenced all future tanks. Even the Nazis incorporated T-34 improvements such as the sloped armor.
德国人曾认为苏联人这种低等民族根本就设计不出更好的武器，但是创新性的T-34坦克让德国人大吃一惊。这种坦克设计影响了未来所有的坦克，甚至纳粹德国在改进坦克时也参考了T-34坦克，比如倾斜装甲。
Invaded Russia with an order to exercise "maximum cruelty". Corpses swung from lampposts, mass graves were filled, houses burned, towns leveled. Given who he was it''s unlikely Hitler could have done anything else but the result is the Russians, who greeted the Germans as liberators and might have joined or at least offered no resistance to the German invasion, decided Stalin wasn''t the worst thing around but instead fought him with all the ferocity and commitment they had. Some people disagree with this assessment saying the population didn''t understand Stalin was bad news but whatever the case Hitler turned his invasion into something so horrifying the country was easily mobilized against him.
入侵苏联并下令执行“最残忍的暴行”。尸体在灯柱下晃荡，乱葬岗填满了尸体，房屋被烧毁，城镇被夷为平地。出于自身身份的原因，希特勒对待苏联人只有一种态度，而结果就是，那些迎接德国人，将其视为解放者、可能会加入德军或者不进行抵抗的苏联人，最终都意识到，斯大林并不是世界上最坏的统治者，然后和斯大林一起抱着最大的决心，凶猛地和德国人血战。有些人并不同意这种评价，认为，苏联人不理解斯大林是一个坏事，不管怎么，希特勒把自己对苏联的入侵变成了一件可怕的事情，以至于，这个国家能够轻易地动员人民来反抗德军。
Burn everything, murder everyone.
烧光一切，杀死所有人。
The Russians responded with a scorched earth policy in order to deprive the advancing Germans food and shelter. This is the same policy used against Napoleon.
于是，苏联人执行焦土政策来回应德军，夺走了德军的食物补给和住所。这也是他们对付拿破仑的政策。
Albert Speer said Hitler had a heat-seeking missile that could have turned back the Allied air invasion. Multiple sources confirm this. Instead of okaying development of this potential game changer Hitler squandered valuable resources (estimates range from half to twice the cost of the Manhattan project. One estimate is, inflation adjusted, $50 billion vs $25 billion for the Manhattan project) developing the V-2 rocket, a nearly useless tactical weapon that delivered a warhead only 15% larger than the V-1''s for far greater cost.
斯佩尔曾说过，希特勒当时拥有可以击退盟国空军的热追踪导弹。有多个消息来源可以证实这一点。然而，希特勒并没有批准研发这种可能会改变游戏规则的武器，反而浪费了大量宝贵资源（估计是“曼哈顿计划”的一半到两倍不等）。根据通货膨胀调整后的估计，“曼哈顿计划”和研发V2导弹的费用分别是500亿美元和250亿美元，而V2导弹几乎就是一种毫无用处的战术武器，虽然它的弹头只比V1大15%，可成本却高得多。
The first cruise missile, the V1, was slow enough to be shot down but it was inexpensive with a large warhead.
世界首款巡航导弹V1，飞行速度太慢，可以被击落，安装有较大弹头但费用不高。
The V2 was the first ballistic missile and an incredible technological feat. It carried a large warhead and because of its supersonic speed it fell without warning making it a true terror weapon. Over 500 fell on London killing 9000.
V2导弹是世界上首款弹道导弹，同时也是不可思议的技术壮举。它携带了一枚超大弹头，借助自己的超音速，它可以在毫无预警的情况下就实现打击，使得它成为了一款真正恐怖的武器。
According to Speer, Hitler delayed the launching his jet plane for a year because he insisted it be developed as a bomber. It took an additional year to convert it into what it was best suited for, a fighter. It was introduced too late to be an important factor in the air war. One reader says the plane was delayed because of developmental problems with the engine but I have found limited support sources for that. Since Hitler already had successful jet bombers including the capable Ar 234 the rationale behind his thinking escapes me. It is little known that the British had also developed a successful Jet fighter. It deployed too late to help.
据斯佩尔说，希特勒把喷气式飞机项目推迟了一年，因为他坚持把它当作轰炸机来研制。而德国又花了一年的时间，才最终把它改造成为了最合适的战斗机。它的研发太晚，所以并没有在空战中派上大用场。曾有一位读者说，飞机的发展是因为引擎问题而延误的，但我能够找到的支持信息很有限。然而，当时希特勒早已拥有了较为成功的轰炸机，包括Ar-234轰炸机，我搞不懂希特勒这种想法的背后是什么。很少有人知道，当时英国人也成功地研发除了喷气式战斗机，但是它们部署时间太晚，根本无法提供帮助。
In the hands of experienced pilots the German Me-262 might have severely impacted the Allied air campaign but it was deployed too late.
在经验丰富的飞行员手中，德国Me-262战机可能会对盟军空袭带来极大的影响，可惜它部署时间太晚了。
Ar 234 was very fast and the Luftwatte wanted as many as it could get. It got 200 and was the last bomber to fly over Britain. Although used primarily as a reconnaissance plane it was also used as a bomber.
Ar234 轰炸机飞行速度非常高，当时德国空军想要尽可能多的这种飞机，最终，有200架轰炸机被交付，同时，它也是最后飞越英国上空的轰炸机。
Hitler did not develop a long range bomber that he could have used to bomb Stalin''s factories deep behind the front lines.
希特勒没能研制出一种远程轰炸机，他本可以用它来轰炸斯大林在前线和后方的工厂的。
Hitler''s obsession with "super weapons" led to him pouring resources into developing weapons that were basically useless and ignoring production of needed materials such as trucks. His much vaunted Tiger Tank, a formidable weapon indeed, was expensive and unreliable. He could have manufactured many less expensive tanks for the same money, five or ten times as many. Instead of learning the lesson inherent in what happened he went on to produce the King Tiger—a nearly invulnerable tank with unimaginable firepower but underpowered, unreliable, and ultimately almost useless. Speer was alarmed by this wasteful research and concerned the tanks would get so heavy they would break through the Earth''s crust. Another tank in development was ironically name the Mouse. Large and powerful only two were built. One of Hitler''s proposed tanks was 40'' tall.
希特勒对“超级武器”的痴迷导致他把大量资源都用于开发那些基本没什么用处的武器上，而忽略了生产卡车等基本物资。他所大肆吹嘘的虎式坦克，的确是一种可怕的武器，但是它非常昂贵而且还不可靠。他本可以用同样多的钱制造出更多便宜的坦克，数量是虎式坦克的五到十倍。希特勒非但没有从中吸取教训，反而生产了更多的虎式坦克——这种坦克几乎无懈可击，拥有难以想象的火力，然而它动力不足，可靠性低，几乎没有什么作用。斯佩尔对这种浪费资源的研究感到震惊，他甚至担心，这些过重的坦克会压垮地面。另外一种正在研发的坦克非常巨大，讽刺的是，它们的名字叫做“鼠式坦克”，最终只有两辆坦克被建造出来。而且，希特勒提出的坦克方案足足有40英尺长。
The King Tiger, while virtually unstoppable, failed to live up to its promise. Note the T-34 inspired sloped armor and the 20'' long cannon.
“虎王”坦克虽然几乎势不可挡，但是，它却并未实现自己的承诺。请注意T-34坦克的倾斜装甲和20英尺长的加农炮。
Hitler''s dream Landkreuzer P. 1000 Ratte
希特勒的梦想：P-1000超级坦克
Hitler was fooled by "Operation Fortitude", one of the most sophisticated and successful military deceptions in history. A phony army was created complete with fake military equipment and radio chatter under the command of General Patton to fool the Germans into believing the D-Day invasion would take place in Northern France and that the Normandy landing was a diversion. Hitler was completely taken in and delayed moving reinforcements to Normandy until two months after D-Day. The diversion was a success in large part because of a brilliant Spanish spy who worked for the Allies as a double agent feeding false information to the Nazis that D-Day was a diversion. It is likely the invasion would have failed without Operation Fortitude. The D-Day operation was delayed because of the unexpected difficulty in penetrating centuries old hedgerows so the Allies, having not broken out, would have had difficulty resisting a German counterattack.
Hitler''s racism drove some great minds out of Germany, most notably Einstein. Ultimately Hitler''s driving out Germany''s particle physics community might have been his greatest error. Before the war Germany led the world in quantum physicists and many, including Einstein, were Jews hence the Nazi''s dismissive attitude toward "Jewish science". But it was not only Jewish physicists that left in droves. Many highly competent Gentile physicists, for instance Erwin Schroedinger Erwin Schrödinger - Biographical, left because of their distaste for Hitler''s racism. This left Germany with arguably only one giant in the field, Werner Heisenberg, who went on to unsuccessfully run Hitler''s atomic bomb program. Page on wikipedia.org. Einstein, on the other hand, blew the whistle on Germany''s atomic bomb aspirations leading directly to the Manhattan project.
希特勒的种族主义迫使一些著名人物逃离德国，最出名的就是爱因斯坦。最后，希特勒驱逐德国的粒子物理团体可能是他犯过最大的错误。在二战爆发前，德国的量子物理学家都处于世界领先地位，而且很多科学家，包括爱因斯坦，都是犹太人。于是，纳粹德国对“犹太科学”都抱有一种不屑一顾的态度。然而，成群结队离开德国的，并不只有犹太物理学家。许多有能力的非犹太人物理学家——比如薛定谔，都是以为厌恶希特勒的种族主义而选择离开德国。结果，在这一科学领域，只有一位科学巨人仍然留在德国——那就是维尔纳·海森堡，可他未能成功实现希特勒的原子弹计划。另一方面，爱因斯坦揭发了德国的原子弹野心，这直接导致了美国执行“曼哈顿计划”。
The list could go on but the upshot is Hitler, a talented politician, was an incompetent administrator and military leader. He was so bad that the Allies, who had an assassination plan in place, were unable to resolve the dilemma whether it was better to leave Hitler in office where his incompetence was an asset or to take the chance he might be replaced with someone who, instead of surrendering, was better able to prosecute the war. As a result the decision was never made to give the plan the go ahead. In addition the Allies wanted to totally discredit Nazism and if Hitler wasn''t at the helm when Germany went under there might be German postwar speculation that had Hitler been in charge the Nazis would have prevailed.
这样的例子不胜枚举，但结论就是，希特勒是一位有才的政治家，却是一位无能的管理者和军事领袖。希特勒的表现如此糟糕，以至于制定了刺杀计划的盟军无法解决一个难题，究竟是应该让希特勒继续掌权呢（因为他的无能对盟军而言是一种财富），还是冒着风险刺杀他，然后代替他的元首拒绝投降，而且更擅长战争呢？结果，盟军并未达成结论来执行这种计划。
Musah Ismael, SHS University of Birmingham & University of Northern Iowa (2017)
In his prison cell at Nuremberg, Hitler''s foreign minister, Joachim von Ribbentrop, wrote a brief memoir in the course of which he explored the reasons for Germany''s defeat. He picked out three factors that he thought were critical: the unexpected ''power of resistance'' of the Red Army; the vast supply of American armaments; and the success of Allied air power.
在纽伦堡的监狱里，希特勒的外交部长约阿希姆·冯·里宾特洛甫写了一本简短的回忆录，来讨论德国战败的原因。他指出了三点认为至关重要的因素：苏联红军出人意料的“抵抗力量”；大量的美国军备供应；盟军空军的成功。
This last was Hitler''s explanation too. When Ribbentrop spoke with him a week before the suicide in the bunker, Hitler told him that, ''the real military cause of defeat'' was the failure of the German Air Force.
其中，最后一点原因也是希特勒所认可的。当希特勒在地堡里自杀的一周前，锚点里宾特洛甫曾和希特勒有过交谈，希特勒告诉他“德国空军的失败，才是真正导致军事失败的原因”。
For all his many failings Ribbentrop was closer to the truth than he might have realised. For the Allies in World War Two, the defeat of Germany was their priority. Italy and Japan never posed the same kind of threat as the European superpower they fought alongside. Their defeat, costly though it was, became irresistible. The key to ending the world crisis was the defeat of Hitler''s Germany.
尽管里宾特洛甫的结论里存在很多的缺点，但是他的观点比自己想象的更接近事实。因为，对于第二次世界大战中的同盟国而言，击败德国才是他们的首要任务。意大利和日本所构成的威胁，远远比不上那些结盟的欧洲大国。因此，轴心国的失败是不可避免的，虽然代价有些高昂。结束这场世界级危机的关键一点，就是击败希特勒掌控的德国。
This situation seemed beyond remedy. Yet within a year Soviet factories were out-producing their richly-endowed German counterparts - the Red Army had embarked on a thorough transformation of the technical and organisational base of Soviet forces, and a stiffening of morale, from Stalin downwards, produced the first serious reverse for the German armed forces when Operation Uranus in November 1942 led to the encirclement of Stalingrad and the loss of the German Sixth Army.
这种情况似乎没有办法改善。然而，不到一年的时间，苏联工厂的产量就超过了德国工厂，苏联红军对军队的技术和组织进行了彻底的改造升级。上至斯大林，下至军队士兵，人们的士气不断高涨，结果，德国在1942年11月的“天王星行动”中遭遇到了重挫，在斯大林格勒被包围，而德国第六军遭受损失。
