Noise pollution—Humans are imperfect, inconsistent decision-makers

In their new book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein offer strategies for improvement

NOISE IS UNWANTED variation in judgments that should be identical, which leads to inaccurate and unfair decisions. It is all around people all the time, though individuals fail to notice it. To get a sense of how it happens, perform a “noise audit” right now: open your phone’s stopwatch app and practice counting ten seconds. Now, with your eyes closed, count several times, hitting the lap button each time you believe ten seconds have elapsed.

inconsistent  英 /ˌɪnkənˈsɪstənt/  adj. 不一致的；前后矛盾的

elapse  v. /ɪˈlæps/ (通常不用于进行时) [ V ]（时间）消逝，流逝 • Many years elapsed before they met again. 过了许多年他们才再次相见。

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark. And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias too, which is a different form of error (you counted too guickly or slowly). 

The problem of bias in decisions is well known and there are strategies that people can adopt to minimise it. For example, customers may be "anchored" on the first price they are presented with in a transaction, so they learn to consciously discard it before they negotiate. But noise is different precisely because it is less apparent. "It becomes visible only when we think statistically about an ensemble of similar judgments. Indeed, it then becomes hard to miss,"  Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein write in their new book.

anchor /ˈæŋkə(r)/ 名词，1.锚•to drop anchor 抛锚；2.给以安全感的人（或物）；精神支柱；顶梁柱 •the anchor of the family 全家的顶梁柱。动词1.抛锚；下锚 •We anchored off the coast of Spain. 我们在西班牙沿海抛锚停泊。2. 使固定；扣牢；系牢 •Make sure the table is securely anchored. 务必要把桌子固定好。 3.~ sb/sth (in/to sth) 使扎根；使基于 •Her novels are anchored in everyday experience. 她的小说取材自日常生活经验。 4. ( NAmE )  主持（电视、广播节目） •She anchored the evening news for seven years. 她主持了七年晚间新闻报道。

discard /dɪsˈkɑːd/ 动词，~ sb/sth (as sth) 丢弃；抛弃 •The room was littered with discarded newspapers. 房间里到处是乱扔的报纸。 名词，被抛弃的人（或物）；（尤指纸牌游戏中）垫出的牌

ensemble  n. /ɒnˈsɒmbl/ 1.乐团，剧团，舞剧团（全体成员） •a brass/wind/string, etc. ensemble 铜管乐器、管乐器、弦乐器等合奏组；2.全体；整体；3.全套服装

The divergences are stark. In a courthouse in Miami, one judge would grant refugees asylum in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of the time. A large study of radiologists found that the false-positive rate ranged from 1% to 64% meaning that two-thirds of the time, a radiologist said a mammogram showed cancer when it was not cancerous. Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the end of a long day. Judges made harsher decisions leading up to their breaks and on hotter days. An insurance firm's underwriters assessed premiums that varied by 55%, a difference that was five times greater than its management had imagined.

Divergence /daɪˈvɜːdʒəns/ n. 差异；分歧；分散，发散；（气流或海洋的）分开处

radiologist  n. /ˌreɪdiˈɒlədʒɪst/放射科医生；X光科的医生

cancerous /ˈkænsərəs/ADJ 癌的 • The production of these cancerous cells suppresses the production of normal white blood cells. 这些癌细胞的产生抑制了正常白血球的生成。

mammogram  n. /ˈmæməɡræm/乳房X光检查

opioid /ˈəʊpɪˌɔɪd/ 1. 类鸦片活性肽；2.类鸦片活性肽的; 与类鸦片活性肽有关的

译文

In their new book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein offer strategies for improvement。

在Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony和Cass Sunstein 的新书中提供了应对噪音的策略。

NOISE IS UNWANTED variation in judgments that should be identical, which leads to inaccurate and unfair decisions. It is all around people all the time, though individuals fail to notice it. To get a sense of how it happens, perform a “noise audit” right now: open your phone’s stopwatch app and practice counting ten seconds. Now, with your eyes closed, count several times, hitting the lap button each time you believe ten seconds have elapsed.

噪音是判断中不受欢迎的变量，会导致判断不精准、不公正，应当使该变量保持不变。它一直都在人们身边, 尽管个人没有注意到它。为了了解它是如何发生的, 现在执行一个“噪音审计”：打开你的手机时间应用程序, 练习数10秒。现在，闭着眼睛 ，自我计时几次，每次自己相信已过10秒的时候，就按下计时按钮。

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark. And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias too, which is a different form of error (you counted too guickly or slowly).

你的回答并不完美而且有偏差：略高于或低于10秒。如果你总是在一个方向上错的，那么也存在偏差，这是另一种形式的错误(你计数太快或太慢)。

The problem of bias in decisions is well known and there are strategies that people can adopt to minimise it. For example, customers may be "anchored" on the first price they are presented with in a transaction, so they learn to consciously discard it before they negotiate. But noise is different precisely because it is less apparent. "It becomes visible only when we think statistically about an ensemble of similar judgments. Indeed, it then becomes hard to miss,"  Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein write in their new book.

决策偏差问题广为人知，并且有相关策略可以使用以减轻偏差。例如，交易中，客户可能会“锚定”他们遇到的第一个价格，所以他们学会在谈判前有意识地放弃这个价格。但噪音的区别恰恰在于它不太明显。作者Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony 和 Cass Sunstein教授在书中写到：只有在大家从统计学的角度考虑一系列类似的判断时，它才变得可见。而且，（统一角度进行描述）噪音就变得很难被忽略。

The divergences are stark. In a courthouse in Miami, one judge would grant refugees asylum in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of the time. A large study of radiologists found that the false-positive rate ranged from 1% to 64% meaning that two-thirds of the time, a radiologist said a mammogram showed cancer when it was not cancerous. Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the end of a long day. Judges made harsher decisions leading up to their breaks and on hotter days. An insurance firm's underwriters assessed premiums that varied by 55%, a difference that was five times greater than its management had imagined.

分歧是明显的。在迈阿密的一所法院，同时段一名法官对88%的案件难民授予庇护,而另一名法官则是5%。一项对放射科医生的大型研究发现，假阳性率在1%到64%之间，这意味着放射科医生说乳房X光片显示癌症时，有三分之二的概率不是。在漫长的一天结束后，医生更有可能开出鸦片类药物。在休息前和炎热的天气里，裁判会做出更严厉的决定。一家保险公司的承保人评估的保费差异范围为55%，这一差异比其管理层想象的要大5倍。