【中英】经济学人|美元可能会给投资者带来一个讨厌的惊喜
Virtually everyone thinks the greenback will weaken
Our currency, your problem. That is how John Connally, America’s Treasury secretary, described the dollar to European leaders in 1971. The phrasing was apt. His boss, Richard Nixon, had suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold and demanded a change to the exchange-rate system established at Bretton Woods in 1944. Other countries were told to strengthen their currencies, or America would subject them to trade restrictions. Compliance followed in short order. By the end of the year, the Smithsonian Agreement had devalued the dollar by around a tenth against key foreign currencies.
我们的货币，你们的问题。这是美国财政部长约翰-康纳利在1971年对欧洲领导人描述美元的方式。这个措辞很贴切。他的老板理查德-尼克松中止了美元与黄金的可兑换性，并要求改变1944年在布雷顿森林建立的汇率制度。其他国家被告知要加强他们的货币，否则美国将对他们进行贸易限制。在很短的时间内，各国纷纷遵守。到该年年底，史密森协议使美元对主要外国货币贬值了约十分之一。
is prompting sighs of relief. Last September the dxy, a gauge of the dollar’s strength against other currencies, was at its highest in 20 years. The yen had tumbled; the pound at one point looked like it was racing towards parity with the dollar; the euro spent a few brief spells below it. Since then, the greenback has weakened: measured by the dxy, it is now 10% below its recent peak.
今天的汇率大多是浮动的，由市场而不是在紧锣密鼓的会谈中确定。然而，美元走弱再次引发了人们的叹息。去年9月，衡量美元对其他货币强度的Dxy指数达到了20年来的最高值。日元下跌；英镑一度看起来正朝着与美元平价的方向发展；欧元也曾短暂地低于美元。从那时起，美元就开始走弱了：以dxy指数衡量，它现在比最近的峰值低10%。
A mighty dollar causes no end of problems. Poorer countries tend to borrow in the currency. When it strengthens, these debts become heftier. Even in rich countries, where governments mostly issue debt in their own currency, a stronger dollar squeezes corporate borrowers. Analysis in 2020 by Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger, three economists, showed that in Australia, Canada and New Zealand more than 90% of corporate bonds held by foreigners were denominated in outside currencies, typically dollars.
一个强大的美元会带来无穷的问题。较贫穷的国家倾向于用美元借款。当美元走强时，这些债务变得更加沉重。即使在富国，政府大多以自己的货币发行债务，美元走强也会挤压企业借款人。三位经济学家Matteo Maggiori、Brent Neiman和Jesse Schreger在2020年的分析显示，在澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰，外国人持有的公司债券有90%以上是以境外货币计价的，通常是美元。
It is not only debtors that suffer. Commodity prices are quoted in dollars; when the currency strengthens they get dearer. American exporters become less competitive, as their products are more expensive for foreigners. American investors with overseas assets have their returns eaten away. Good reason, then, for the cheering at the greenback’s retreat.
受影响的不仅是债务人。商品价格是以美元报价的；当货币升值时，它们会变得更贵。美国的出口商变得缺乏竞争力，因为他们的产品对外国人来说更加昂贵。拥有海外资产的美国投资者的收益被蚕食。因此，有充分的理由对美元的回撤表示欢呼。
Unfortunately, the relief may be temporary. To see why, consider the sources of the dollar’s recent strength. One is monetary policy. Throughout 2022, America’s Federal Reserve raised rates higher and faster than other central banks. This made the dollar a good target for a “carry trade”: selling a low-yielding currency to buy a high-yielding one and pocketing the difference. A second source is fear. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the teetering of the global economy towards recession all ratcheted up markets’ anxiety levels. In anxious times investors tend to reach for the perceived safety of American assets. A final source is America’s economy. In part because of higher energy prices and the country’s status as an energy exporter, it seems in better shape than much of the rest of the world’s.
不幸的是，这种缓解可能是暂时的。要知道为什么，考虑一下美元最近的强势来源。一个是货币政策。在整个2022年，美国联邦储备局比其他央行更高更快地提高利率。这使得美元成为 “套利交易 “的良好目标：卖出低收益货币，买入高收益货币，并将差额收入囊中。第二个来源是恐惧。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和全球经济走向衰退的摇摆不定，都加剧了市场的焦虑水平。在焦虑的时候，投资者往往会去寻找被认为安全的美国资产。最后一个来源是美国的经济。部分原因是能源价格上涨和美国作为能源出口国的地位，它似乎比世界其他国家的经济状况更好。
True, the pace of the Fed’s tightening is slowing, and its governors expect rates to peak this year. But they expect that peak to be higher than investors do, at above 5%, and that it will be maintained longer before being cut. Were the market to accept the central bank’s view, the carry trade might yet have another leg. So may the fear trade, which is dependent on the progress of an unpredictable war.
的确，美联储的紧缩步伐正在放缓，其理事们预计利率将在今年达到峰值。但他们预计这一峰值将高于投资者的预期，即超过5%，而且在降息之前将维持更长时间。如果市场接受央行的观点，套利交易可能还会有新的进展。恐惧交易也是如此，它取决于一场不可预测的战争的进展。
Even an American recession may not dent the dollar. The greenback tends to do well both when America’s economy is motoring ahead and when it falls into a downturn, a phenomenon currency traders call the “dollar smile”. If American growth is sputtering（to make several quick explosive sounds；（使）发出噼啪声）, the global economy is likely to be in jeopardy as well, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets as havens.
即使是美国的经济衰退也可能不会影响到美元。当美国经济向前发展和陷入衰退时，美元往往表现良好，这种现象被货币交易商称为 “美元微笑”。如果美国经济增长乏力，全球经济也可能陷入困境，从而增强了美元资产作为避风港的吸引力。
Yet the best argument that the dollar will strengthen is investors’ conviction that it won’t. In Bank of America’s recent survey of fund managers, a near-record proportion thought that the greenback would weaken. Among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, a data provider, the median projection is for the dollar to fall against every other major currency this year, and to continue to drop after that.
然而，美元将走强的最佳论据是投资者对其不会走强的信念。在美国银行最近对基金经理的调查中，有近乎创纪录的比例认为美元会走弱。在数据提供商彭博社调查的预测者中，预测的中值是今年美元对其他所有主要货币都将下跌，之后将继续下跌。
With some $6.6trn traded against other currencies every day, it is difficult to imagine that at least some of these bets have not already been placed. The more that have, the greater the potential for a rise. Shortly after the Smithsonian Agreement was struck, speculators threw currency markets back into chaos by forcing the dollar to devalue further, eventually breaking the Bretton Woods system altogether. Nowadays, the greatest pain would come if the dollar were driven in the opposite direction. Investors could be in for a shock.
