International Economic Review 2023年第2期
International Economic Review 2023年第2期
Volume 64, Issue 2 May 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
PUBLIC DEBT BUBBLES IN HETEROGENEOUS AGENT MODELS WITH TAIL RISK
具有尾部风险的异质代理模型中的公共债务泡沫
Narayana R. Kocherlakota
This article studies the public debt implications of an analytically tractable class of incomplete insurance macroeconomic models in which agents face a near-zero probability of a highly adverse outcome. In generic models of this kind, there exists a public debt bubble, so that the real interest rate is perpetually below the growth rate (set to zero). There is no upper bound on the deficit level or debt level that is sustainable in a bubbly equilibrium. In a public debt bubble, ex ante steady-state welfare is higher if the government chooses policies that give rise to a larger level of debt.
本文研究了一类分析上易于处理的不完全保险宏观经济模型的公共债务含义，其中代理人面临高度不利结果的概率接近于零。在这类通用模型中，存在公共债务泡沫，因此实际利率永远低于增长率(设定为零)。在泡沫均衡中，赤字水平或债务水平没有可持续的上限。在公共债务泡沫中，如果政府选择导致更高债务水平的政策，事前稳态福利就会更高。
A COMPARISON OF LIVING STANDARDS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
美国各地生活水平的比较
Elena Falcettoni, Vegard M. Nygaard
We use an expected utility model to examine how living standards, or welfare, vary across the United States and how each state's welfare has evolved over time, accounting for cross-state variations in mortality, consumption, education, leisure, and inequality. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in welfare levels. This is robust to allowing for endogenous interstate migration and to computing welfare conditional on education, gender, and race. Although states experienced heterogeneous welfare growth rates between 1999 and 2015 (1.68–3.73% per year), there is no evidence of convergence in welfare levels, including during the subperiods preceding and following the Great Recession.
我们使用预期实用新型来研究生活水平或福利在美国各地的差异，以及每个州的福利如何随着时间的推移而演变，考虑到死亡率、消费、教育、休闲和不平等的跨州差异。我们发现福利水平在各州之间存在相当大的异质性。这对于允许内生的州际移民和计算以教育、性别和种族为条件的福利是强有力的。尽管各州在1999年至2015年间经历了不同的福利增长率(每年1.68-3.73%)，但没有证据表明福利水平趋同，包括在大衰退之前和之后的子时期。
SETTLING LAWSUITS WITH PIRATES
解决与盗版者的诉讼
Xinyu Hua, Kathryn E. Spier
A firm licenses a product to overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. Consumers may purchase the product, pirate/steal it, or forego it. Higher consumer types enjoy higher gross benefits and are caught stealing at a higher rate. The firm may commit to an out-of-court settlement policy that is “soft” on pirates, so high types purchase the product and low types steal it until caught. Settlement contracts, which include both cash payments and licenses for future product use, facilitate price discrimination. Settlement may either create social value by expanding the market or destroy value by limiting market access and possibly deterring more efficient entrants.
公司将产品授权给不同世代的消费者。消费者可以购买该产品，盗版/窃取，或放弃它。更高的消费者类型享受更高的总利益，偷窃被抓住的几率也更高。公司可能会承诺庭外和解政策，对盗版者采取“温和”的态度，这样高阶层的人就会购买产品，而低阶层的人则会偷走产品，直到被抓到为止。结算合同既包括现金支付，也包括对未来产品使用的许可，这助长了价格歧视。结算可能通过扩大市场来创造社会价值，也可能通过限制市场准入并可能阻止更高效的进入者来破坏价值。
UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
大衰退时期的不确定性和货币政策
Giovanni Pellegrino, Efrem Castelnuovo, Giovanni Caggiano
We employ a nonlinear proxy-VAR approach to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework that we employ to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q4. We find such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008–2014 period. Our model also points to the powerful role played by the Federal Reserve's systematic monetary policy in limiting the loss of output during the Great Recession.
我们采用非线性代理- var方法来记录实际活动在大衰退期间和之后对金融不确定性冲击的巨大反应。我们用一个估计的DSGE框架来复制这一证据，我们使用该框架来量化由于2008年第四季度出现的巨大不确定性冲击而造成的产出损失。我们发现，这种冲击可以解释2008-2014年期间约60%的产出损失。我们的模型还指出，在大衰退期间，美联储(fed)的系统性货币政策在限制产出损失方面发挥了强有力的作用。
THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF MANDATORY REEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS: COMBINING A STRUCTURAL MODEL AND EXPERIMENTAL DATA
强制性再就业计划的福利效应:结构模型与实验数据的结合
Jonas Maibom
This article estimates a model of job search with utility costs and benefits triggered by mandatory reemployment programs. I use data from an experiment that generates exogenous variation in the threat of program participation and an increase in the job finding rate. I calculate the impact of the experiment on worker welfare, and find that participants would be willing to give up 1.5–1.7 weeks of unemployment benefits to avoid participation. These welfare costs vary across workers and are larger for workers with weaker employment prospects. Overall, welfare costs are substantial and therefore important to take into account.
本文估计了一个由强制性再就业计划引发的具有效用成本和收益的求职模型。我使用了一个实验的数据，这个实验产生了参与项目的威胁和求职率的增加的外生变化。我计算了实验对工人福利的影响，发现参与者愿意放弃1.5-1.7周的失业救济金来避免参与。这些福利成本因工人而异，对就业前景较弱的工人来说更大。总的来说，福利成本是巨大的，因此必须加以考虑。
VACCINE HESITANCY, PASSPORTS, AND THE DEMAND FOR VACCINATION
疫苗犹豫、护照和疫苗接种需求
Joshua S. Gans
Vaccine hesitancy is modeled as an endogenous decision within a behavioral epidemiological model with endogenous agent activity. It is shown that policy interventions that directly target costs associated with vaccine adoption may counter vaccine hesitancy whereas those that manipulate the utility of unvaccinated agents will either lead to the same or lower rates of vaccine adoption. This latter effect arises with vaccine passports whose effects are mitigated in equilibrium by reductions in viral/disease prevalence that themselves reduce the demand for vaccination.
疫苗犹豫被建模为具有内源性病原体活性的行为流行病学模型中的内源性决策。研究表明，直接针对与疫苗采用相关的成本的政策干预可能会抵消疫苗犹豫，而那些操纵未接种疫苗代理人效用的政策干预要么会导致相同的疫苗采用率，要么会降低疫苗采用率。疫苗护照产生后一种影响，其影响由于病毒/疾病流行率的降低而得到平衡缓解，而病毒/疾病流行率本身也减少了对疫苗接种的需求。
THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MULTILATERAL TRADE POLICY WITH EXPORT CHURNING
多边贸易政策与出口搅动的动态效应
Carter Mix
This article examines the relationship between export churning and the aggregate response to trade policy. I show that export churning—the share of bilateral exports by new or exiting exporters—varies systematically across export destinations and build a multicountry model with destination-specific investments in exporting capacity that is consistent with churning patterns. The model then predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth than liberalizations with major export destinations, and the data support this prediction. Furthermore, the aggregate effects of trade policy depend critically on the pattern of export churning in the model.
本文考察了出口搅动与对贸易政策的总体反应之间的关系。我展示了出口流失——新的或现有的出口商在双边出口中所占的份额——在不同的出口目的地之间有系统的变化，并建立了一个针对特定目的地的出口能力投资的多国模型，该模型与流失模式相一致。然后，该模型预测，出口目的地较小的贸易自由化比出口目的地较大的贸易自由化提供更高的双边出口增长，数据支持这一预测。此外，贸易政策的总体效应在很大程度上取决于模型中出口搅动的模式。
MONETARY POLICY AND INEQUALITY: HOW DOES ONE AFFECT THE OTHER?
货币政策与不平等:一个如何影响另一个?
Eunseong Ma
This article studies a labor-supply-side channel affecting the relationship between monetary policy and income inequality. To this end, I build a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian economy with indivisible labor in which both macro and micro labor supply elasticities are endogenously generated. First, I find that monetary policy shocks have distributional consequences due to a substantial heterogeneity in labor supply elasticity across households. Second, a more equal economy is associated with more effective monetary policy in terms of output. I document supporting empirical evidence for the key mechanism of the model using microlevel data and state-level data in the United States.
本文研究了影响货币政策与收入不平等关系的劳动供给侧通道。为此，我构建了一个具有不可分割劳动力的异质代理新凯恩斯经济，其中宏观和微观劳动力供给弹性都是内生产生的。首先，我发现货币政策冲击具有分配后果，这是由于家庭间劳动力供给弹性的巨大异质性。其次，就产出而言，更平等的经济与更有效的货币政策相关联。我用美国的微观数据和州级数据为模型的关键机制提供了支持性的经验证据。
THE POWER OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR
美联储主席的权力
Alessandro Riboni, Francisco Ruge-Murcia
This article examines the influence exerted by the Federal Reserve chair on monetary policy decisions. We construct a voting model where the chair selects the proposal that is initially put to a vote but is subject to an acceptance constraint that incorporates the preferences of the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and the probability of counterproposals. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using real-time data from FOMC meetings. Results for all chairs in our sample show that the chair's proposal is the result of a compromise, reflecting a stable balance of power within the FOMC.
本文考察了美联储主席对货币政策决策的影响。我们构建了一个投票模型，其中主席选择最初提交投票的提案，但受制于接受约束，该约束包含了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员的中位数偏好和反提案的概率。该模型是通过使用FOMC会议实时数据的最大可能性来估计的。我们样本中所有主席的结果都表明，主席的提议是妥协的结果，反映了FOMC内部稳定的权力平衡。
DECIDING WHEN TO DECIDE: COLLECTIVE DELIBERATION AND OBSTRUCTION
决定何时决定:集体商议和阻挠
Vincent Anesi, Mikhail Safronov
We study the impact of deliberation rules on collective learning and decision making in committees. In contrast to much of the existing literature, this article makes a distinction between the final votes over policy proposals and the cloture votes that bring them about. We show how deliberation rules can cause Pareto-inefficient outcomes and failures to bring good proposals to a final vote, and how they affect the distribution of power among committee members in the deliberative process. We further show that deliberation rules are dynamically stable, even when they generate Pareto-inefficient outcomes.
我们研究了审议规则对委员会集体学习和决策的影响。与现有的许多文献相反，本文对政策提案的最终投票和最终投票进行了区分。我们展示了审议规则如何导致帕累托效率低下的结果和未能将好的提案带入最终投票，以及它们如何影响审议过程中委员会成员之间的权力分配。我们进一步证明了审议规则是动态稳定的，即使它们产生了帕累托无效的结果。
EXCESSIVE COMPETITION ON HEADLINE PRICES
总体价格的过度竞争
Roman Inderst, Martin Obradovits
In a variety of purchasing situations, consumers may focus primarily on headline prices, disregarding the full costs associated with acquiring and maintaining a product or service contract. Even when this is the case, the literature has delineated various circumstances where intense competition can protect consumers through the so-called “waterbed effect.” In this article, we however show that when consumers have context-dependent preferences, competition may rather exacerbate their and society's harm by distorting product choice and provision. Then, consumer protection policy must sufficiently constrain hidden fees so that competition, along with high-quality firms' incentives to educate consumers, can restore efficiency.
在各种购买情况下，消费者可能主要关注标题价格，而忽略了与获取和维持产品或服务合同相关的全部成本。即使在这种情况下，文献也描述了激烈竞争可以通过所谓的“水床效应”保护消费者的各种情况。然而，在本文中，我们表明，当消费者具有情境依赖偏好时，竞争可能会扭曲产品选择和供应，从而加剧他们和社会的伤害。其次，消费者保护政策必须充分限制隐性费用，这样竞争以及高质量公司教育消费者的动机才能恢复效率。
NO CREDIT, NO GAIN: TRADE LIBERALIZATION DYNAMICS, PRODUCTION INPUTS, AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
没有信贷，就没有收益:贸易自由化动态、生产投入和金融发展
David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici, Michal Szkup
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate implications of reducing import tariffs on capital and intermediate inputs. We document empirically that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower aggregate response following trade liberalization. To quantify these effects, we set up a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to collateral constraints and estimate it using Colombian plant-level data. We find that low financial development substantially limited the gains from trade liberalization in Colombia in the early 1990s. More broadly, we find that low financial development substantially limits both the aggregate and welfare gains from tariff reductions.
我们研究了金融发展对降低资本和中间投入进口关税的总体影响的作用。我们的经验证明，金融不发达的经济体在贸易自由化后的总体反应较慢。为了量化这些影响，我们建立了一个受抵押品约束的异质公司的一般均衡模型，并使用哥伦比亚工厂水平的数据进行估计。我们发现，在20世纪90年代初，低金融发展严重限制了哥伦比亚贸易自由化的收益。更广泛地说，我们发现低金融发展实质上限制了关税削减带来的总收益和福利收益。
DIRECTED SEARCH WITH PHANTOM VACANCIES
有幽灵空缺的定向搜索
James Albrecht, Bruno Decreuse, Susan Vroman
When vacancies are filled, the job ads often remain, creating phantom vacancies. Older listings more likely represent phantoms. We assume job seekers direct their search based on listing age. Forming a match with an age-a vacancy creates an age-a phantom with probability β and generates an externality affecting vacancies aged a and older. Thus, the externality decreases with the match's listing age. Relative to efficient behavior, job seekers overapply to younger listings. We calibrate using U.S. data. The contribution of phantoms to inefficiency is large, but, given their existence, the planner cannot improve much on the directed search allocation.
当职位空缺被填满时，招聘广告通常会保留下来，造成虚幻的职位空缺。较旧的房源更像是幽灵。我们假设求职者根据应聘年龄进行搜索。与年龄匹配的空缺产生了概率为β的年龄幻象，并产生了影响年龄大于等于a的空缺的外部性。因此，外部性随着公司上市年龄的增加而降低。相对于高效的行为，求职者过度申请年轻职位。我们使用美国的数据进行校准。幽灵对低效率的贡献很大，但是，考虑到它们的存在，计划者无法对定向搜索分配进行很大的改进。
