Economic journal 2023年第1期
Economic journal 2023年第1期
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1.The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence
央行反击了!财政影响下货币政策的可信度
Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac055
Abstract
How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers? We contrast the implications of two monetary frameworks: one, where the central bank follows a standard rule aiming exclusively at price stability against the other, where monetary policy additionally leans against fiscal influence. The latter rule improves economic outcomes by providing appropriate incentives to the fiscal authority. More importantly, the additional fiscal conditionality can enhance the credibility of the central bank to achieve price stability. We emphasise how the level and structure of government debt emerge as key factors affecting the credibility of monetary policy with fiscal conditionality.
如果受到财政政策制定者的压力，独立的央行应该如何应对?我们对比了两种货币框架的含义:一种是中央银行遵循专门针对价格稳定的标准规则，另一种是货币政策额外依赖于财政影响。后一种规则通过向财政当局提供适当的激励来改善经济结果。更重要的是，额外的财政条件可以增强央行实现物价稳定的可信度。我们强调，政府债务水平和结构如何成为影响带有财政条件的货币政策可信度的关键因素。
2.Spatial Polarisation
社会空间极化
Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, Alessio Moro, Michelle Rendall
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 30–69, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac040
We document the emergence of spatial polarisation in the United States during the 1980–2008 period. This phenomenon is characterised by stronger employment polarisation in larger cities, both at the occupational and the worker levels. We quantitatively evaluate the role of technology in generating these patterns by constructing and calibrating a spatial equilibrium model. We find that faster skill-biased technological change in larger cities can account for a substantial fraction of spatial polarisation in the United States. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the differential increase in the share of low-skilled workers across city size is due mainly to the large demand by high-skilled workers for low-skilled services and, to a smaller extent, to the higher complementarity between low- and high-skilled workers in production relative to middle-skilled workers.
我们记录了1980-2008年期间美国空间极化的出现。这一现象的特点是，在较大的城市，无论是在职业层面还是在工人层面，就业两极分化都更严重。通过构建和校准空间平衡模型，我们定量评估了技术在生成这些模式中的作用。我们发现，在较大的城市中，更快的技能偏向性技术变革可以解释美国空间极化的很大一部分。反事实分析表明，城市规模中低技能工人所占比例的差异增长主要是由于高技能工人对低技能服务的大量需求，在较小程度上是由于生产中低技能工人和高技能工人之间相对于中等技能工人具有更高的互补性。
3.Trading Favours through the Revolving Door: Evidence from China’s Primary Land Market
通过旋转门进行交易:来自中国主要土地市场的证据
Ting Chen, Li Han, James Kung, Jiaxin Xie
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 70–97, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac060
By matching data on land transactions in China’s primary land market with detailed curricula vitae of board directors in publicly listed firms, we identify a pattern of ‘revolving-door’ exchanges between local officials and firms. The officials discounted the price of land that they sold to the said firms, and were subsequently rewarded with board appointments upon retirement. Specifically, these ‘client officials’ are three times as likely to be recruited by the ‘patron firms’ as board directors and enjoy a salary that is 23% higher, and 81% more company shares by comparison with directors who did not help firms to secure cheap land deals. All of these, however, are conditional on patron firms being able to receive a price discount, which averaged 19.4% when they purchased them in normal times. However, when client officials were constrained from providing a price discount during a surprise audit, the likelihood of client officials recruited as board directors was halved, with the price discount and extra compensation received by the patrons and clients, respectively, vanishing altogether. By providing evidence of the reciprocal benefits received by both parties, we demonstrate that the revolving door is used as a ‘payment’ rather than a ‘connection’ device in the Chinese context.
通过将中国一级土地市场的土地交易数据与上市公司的详细董事履历进行匹配，我们发现了地方官员与公司之间的"旋转门"交流模式。这些官员打折出售给上述公司的土地价格，并在退休后获得董事会任命作为奖励。具体而言，与那些没有帮助公司获得廉价土地交易的董事相比，这些”客户官员”被”客户公司”聘用的可能性是董事会董事的三倍，并享有23%的高薪和81%的公司股份。然而，所有这些都是以客户公司能够获得价格折扣为条件的，当他们在正常情况下购买时，平均折扣为19.4%。然而，当客户官员在突击审计中受到提供价格折扣的限制时，客户官员被招募为董事会董事的可能性降低了一半，客户和客户分别获得的价格折扣和额外报酬完全消失。通过提供双方获得互惠利益的证据，我们证明旋转门在中国语境中被用作”支付”而不是”连接”设备。
4.Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations
政策不确定性与信息流动:来自养老金改革预期的证据
Emanuele Ciani, Adeline Delavande, Ben Etheridge, Marco Francesconi
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 98–129, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac050
We examine how workers’ expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information availability and worker characteristics. Using newly collected data, we find that (1) expectations about reform are revised upward by about 10 percentage points in the year prior to a reform, from a median of 50%, regardless of whether the reform is announced; (2) expectations increase more the stronger the media activity about imminent reforms; (3) the effect of information on expectations varies systematically with characteristics that proxy cognitive ability and information value; (4) expectations do not converge as a result of reform announcements or implementations.
本文考察了劳动者对养老金改革的预期如何随改革的临近程度、信息可得性和劳动者特征而变化。利用新收集的数据，我们发现:(1)无论是否宣布改革，改革前一年对改革的预期从50%的中位数上调了约10个百分点;(2)对即将到来的改革的媒体活动越强烈，预期越高;(3)信息对期望的影响随代理认知能力和信息价值的特征而系统变化;(4)预期不因改革公告或实施而收敛。
5. Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics
使用基准行业特征估计跨行业跨国交互模型
Antonio Ciccone, Elias Papaioannou
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 130–158, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac047
Cross-industry cross-country models are used to address a wide array of questions in economics. They do so by analysing how the economic performance of industries in different countries depends on an interaction effect between industry and country characteristics. As the relevant industry characteristics are unobservable in most countries, they are approximated by industry characteristics in a benchmark country. We show that this approach generally yields biased estimates of the industry–country interaction effect. The sign of the bias depends on whether or not technologically similar countries tend to be similar in other country characteristics. We propose an alternative estimation approach.
跨行业跨国模型被用来解决经济学中的一系列广泛问题。他们通过分析不同国家产业的经济绩效如何依赖于产业与国家特征之间的相互作用效应来做到这一点。由于相关的行业特征在大多数国家都是不可观测的，因此可以用基准国家的行业特征来近似。我们表明，这种方法通常会对产业-国家互动效应产生有偏差的估计。这种偏向的迹象取决于技术相似的国家是否会在其他国家的特征上趋于相似。我们提出了另一种估计方法。
6.On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran
目标?制裁和伊朗精英政策制定者的经济利益
Mirko Draca, Jason Garred, Leanne Stickland, Nele Warrinnier
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 159–200, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac042
How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear programme. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.
针对受影响国家政治精英的经济利益实施制裁的效果如何?我们研究了伊朗的案例，使用了对伊朗核计划方向具有重大影响的两个特定政治实体在证券交易所上市的资产的信息。我们的识别战略侧重于取消制裁的谈判过程，考察哪些利益从外交进展的新闻中受益最大。这些结果表明了对伊朗制裁的“直截了当”，但也提供了证据，证明这些制裁在为精英决策者提供实质性的经济激励方面是有效的，以谈判达成解除制裁的协议。
7.Talent Discovery and Poaching Under Asymmetric Information
信息不对称下的人才发现与挖墙角
Daniel Ferreira, Radoslawa Nikolowa
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 201–234, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac048
We develop a model of the market for knowledge workers in which talent is discovered on the job. In the model, asymmetric information and firm-specific human capital combine to generate several predictions relating firm heterogeneity to talent discovery and poaching. We show that high-quality (i.e., large and high-productivity) firms are more likely to become talent poachers, while lower-quality firms are more likely to invest in talent discovery. Job-to-job flows are adversely selected, which implies that internally promoted managers are more productive than those who are externally promoted. The model generates several additional predictions linking firm heterogeneity to the distribution of managerial talent, productivity, compensation and promotions.
我们为知识工作者开发了一个市场模型，在这个模型中，人才是在工作中发现的。在该模型中，信息不对称和公司特有的人力资本结合起来，产生了一些关于公司异质性与人才发现和挖角的预测。研究发现，高质量(即大型和高生产率)的企业更有可能成为人才挖墙脚者，而低质量的企业更有可能投资于人才发现。职位之间的流动是反向选择的，这意味着内部晋升的经理比外部晋升的经理更有生产力。该模型产生了几个额外的预测，将企业异质性与管理人才、生产率、薪酬和晋升的分布联系起来。
8.Firm Ex Ante Heterogeneity, Entry and the Labour Share
企业事前异质性、进入与劳动收入份额
Jakob Grazzini, Lorenza Rossi
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 235–257, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac054
This paper considers a two-sector real business cycle model augmented with firm heterogeneity and firm dynamics, and studies the steady state and dynamic properties of the model in response to a decline in the relative price of investment. It shows that both firm heterogeneity and entry play a crucial role in the decline in the labour share and the increase in capital intensity observed in the US economy. Using ORBIS firm-level data of the US economy, the paper finds robust evidence consistent with the mechanisms described in the model.
本文考虑了一个由企业异质性和企业动态增强的两部门实际经济周期模型，研究了该模型在相对投资价格下降时的稳态和动态性质。研究表明，在美国经济中，企业异质性和进入都对劳动收入占比的下降和资本密集度的上升起着至关重要的作用。利用美国经济的ORBIS公司层面的数据，本文发现了与模型中描述的机制相一致的稳健证据。
9.‘I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For’: Evidence of Directed Search from a Field Experiment
“我还没有找到我要找的东西”:来自野外实验的定向搜索证据
Haoran He, David Neumark, Qian Weng
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 258–280, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac066
We explore the impact of wage offers on job applications, testing implications of the directed search model and trying to distinguish it from random search. We use a field experiment conducted on a Chinese job board, with real jobs for which we randomly vary the wage offers across three ranges. We find that higher wage offers raise application rates overall, which is consistent with directed search, but can also arise with random search. We also find that higher wage offers raise application rates for job seekers with wage offers above reservation wages and that—among the latter—the increase in application rates is stronger for those with higher reservation wages. The latter two types of evidence are consistent with directed search, but not random search. Hence, our evidence lends support to directed search models.
我们探讨了工资提供对工作申请的影响，测试了直接搜索模型的含义，并试图将其与随机搜索区分开来。我们在中国的一个招聘平台上进行了一项实地实验，我们在三个范围内随机改变了真实工作的工资水平。我们发现，较高的工资待遇总体上提高了申请率，这与定向搜索一致，但也可能出现在随机搜索中。我们还发现，较高的工资水平会提高工资水平高于保留工资的求职者的申请率，而在后者中，保留工资较高的求职者的申请率增长更强。后两类证据与定向搜索一致，而不是随机搜索。因此，我们的证据支持定向搜索模型。
10.The Long-Run Effects of Peers on Mental Health
同伴对心理健康的长期影响
Lukas Kiessling, Jonathan Norris
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 281–322, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac039
This paper studies how peers in school affect students’ mental health. Guided by a theoretical framework, we find that increasing students’ relative ranks in their cohorts by one standard deviation improves their mental health by 6% of a standard deviation conditional on own ability. These effects are more pronounced for low-ability students, persistent for at least 14 years and carry over to economic long-run outcomes. Moreover, we document a pronounced asymmetry: Students who receive negative rather than positive shocks react more strongly. Our findings therefore provide evidence on how the school environment can have long-lasting consequences for individuals’ well-being.
本文研究了学校同龄人对学生心理健康的影响。在理论框架的指导下，我们发现，学生在队列中的相对排名每增加一个标准差，他们的心理健康水平就会提高6%的标准差(以自身能力为条件)。这些影响对能力低下的学生来说更加明显，至少持续了14年，并对经济的长期结果产生影响。此外，我们还发现了一个明显的不对称性:接受负面冲击的学生比接受正面冲击的学生反应更强烈。因此，我们的发现为学校环境如何对个人福祉产生长期影响提供了证据。
11.Civicness Drain
公民流失
Moti Michaeli, Marco Casari, Andrea Ichino, Maria De Paola, Ginevra Marandola ...
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 323–354, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac068
Migration may cause, not only a brain drain, but also a ‘civicness’ drain, leading to a poverty trap. Using migration choices of southern Italian high-school students classified as civic if not cheating in a modified die-roll experiment, we uncover a key role of local civicness (average civicness in the class): a civicness drain is observed only at high and low local civicness. We rationalise this pattern with a model in which civic and uncivic types balance hope versus fear of migration outcomes, taking into account economic gains, risk preferences and their beliefs about being considered civic in the place of destination
移民不仅可能导致人才流失，还可能导致“公民”流失，从而导致贫困陷阱。利用意大利南部高中生的移民选择，我们发现了当地公民(班级中的平均公民)的一个关键作用:只有在高和低的当地公民中才能观察到公民流失。我们对这种模式进行了合理化，在这种模式中，公民和非公民类型在对移民结果的希望和恐惧之间进行平衡，考虑到经济收益、风险偏好和他们对在目的地被视为公民的信念
12.Countering Moral Hazard in Higher Education: The Role of Performance Incentives in Need-Based Grants
在高等教育中对抗道德风险:绩效激励在基于需求的拨款中的作用
José Montalbán
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 355–389, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac062
Using a unique reform in the Spanish financial aid program, I estimate the impact of need-based grants on student achievement and dropout decisions under different intensities of academic requirements. Utilising comprehensive administrative data from a large university, I exploit sharp discontinuities in the grant eligibility formula to identify the effect of aid on student outcomes. I find that aid eligibility has no effect on student outcomes when the academic requirements are comparable with most existing national grant schemes worldwide. In contrast, I find that need-based grants have strong positive impacts on student performance and degree completion when they are combined with more demanding academic requirements.
利用西班牙财政援助计划的一项独特改革，我估计了在不同的学术要求强度下，基于需求的赠款对学生成绩和退学决定的影响。利用一所大型大学的综合管理数据，我利用补助金资格公式中的明显不连续性来确定援助对学生成绩的影响。我发现，当学术要求与世界上大多数现有的国家赠款计划相比较时，援助资格对学生的成绩没有影响。相比之下，我发现，当助学金与更高的学术要求相结合时，对学生的表现和学位完成度有很强的积极影响。
13.A Raise for Grandma: Pensions and Household Expenditure
给奶奶加薪:养老金和家庭支出
Susana Párraga Rodríguez
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 390–419, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac061
This paper analyses the causal effect of changes in public pensions on household spending. The identification exploits the introduction of a new welfare system in Spain during the 1980s and 1990s, and uses a novel narrative series of legislated pension changes as an instrument for pension income. Despite public pensions having a limited impact in the aggregate, I find a high, though less than unity, marginal propensity to consume for pensioners due to permanent income shocks at the household level. Moreover, large spending responses for pensioners with the highest income and wealth mean that liquidity considerations can be disregarded as a key source of marginal propensity to consume heterogeneity. Instead, a strong precautionary savings motive can explain the excess smoothness of consumption, and costly adjustments explain the skewed spending response for durables.
本文分析了公共养老金变动对家庭支出的因果影响。该识别利用了20世纪80年代和90年代西班牙引入的一种新的福利制度，并使用一系列立法养老金变化作为养老金收入的工具变量。尽管公共养老金在总体上的影响有限，但我发现，由于家庭层面的永久性收入冲击，养老金领取者的边际消费倾向很高，尽管不太一致。此外，收入和财富最高的养老金领取者的大量支出反应意味着流动性考虑可以被视为边际消费异质性的一个关键来源。相反，强烈的预防性储蓄动机可以解释消费的过度平稳，而代价高昂的调整可以解释耐用品支出的倾斜反应。
14.The Power of Hydroelectric Dams: Historical Evidence from the United States over the Twentieth Century
水力发电大坝的力量:20世纪美国的历史证据
Edson Severnini
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 420–459, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac059
This paper evaluates large-scale hydroelectric dams built in the United States during the twentieth century. Combining panel event-study designs and synthetic control methods, two results stand out. First, dams constructed pre-1950 spurred short-run local growth, in large part thanks to a ‘cheap-local-power advantage’, and resulted in remarkable long-run growth, more than doubling local population density after 50 years. Second, dams constructed post-1950 had only modest effects on growth. The first result indicates agglomerative impacts on local economic activity. The second result suggests that the cheap-local-power advantage created by hydropower attenuated after 1950, probably because of such innovations as high-tension transmission lines.
本文对美国在20世纪建造的大型水电站大坝进行了评价。结合面板事件研究设计和综合控制方法，有两个结果突出。首先，1950年前修建的大坝刺激了当地的短期增长，这在很大程度上归功于“当地电力便宜的优势”，并带来了显著的长期增长，50年后当地人口密度增加了一倍多。其次，1950年后修建的大坝对经济增长的影响不大。第一个结果表明集聚对当地经济活动的影响。第二个结果表明，水力发电所带来的便宜的本地电力优势在1950年后减弱了，这可能是因为高压输电线路等创新。
15.Salience and Accountability: School Infrastructure and Last-Minute Electoral Punishment
突出和责任:学校基础设施和最后一刻的选举惩罚
Nicolás Ajzenman, Ruben Durante
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 460–476, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac044
Can seemingly unimportant factors influence voting decisions by making certain issues salient? We study this in the context of Argentina’s 2015 presidential elections by examining how the infrastructure quality of the school where citizens voted influenced their choice. Exploiting the quasi-random assignment of voters to ballot stations in public schools in Buenos Aires, we show that individuals assigned to poorer infrastructure schools were less likely to vote for Mauricio Macri, the incumbent mayor running for president. The effect is larger in lower-income areas, where private education is more unusual, and in places where more households have children of school-going age.
看似不重要的因素会使某些问题变得突出，从而影响投票决定吗?我们以阿根廷2015年总统选举为背景，研究了公民投票所在学校的基础设施质量如何影响他们的选择。利用选民被准随机分配到布宜诺斯艾利斯公立学校投票站的现象，我们发现，分配到较贫穷的基础设施学校的个人不太可能投票给竞选总统的现任市长毛里西奥马克里(Mauricio Macri)。这种影响在低收入地区更大，在这些地区，私人教育更不寻常，更多的家庭有上学年龄的孩子。
16.Must Agreements Be Kept? Residential Leases During Covid-19
协议必须遵守吗?Covid-19期间的住宅租赁
Itai Ater, Yael Elster, David Genesove, Eran B Hoffmann
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 477–492, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac065
We study residential lease payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey of Israeli renters shows that nearly one in eight did not pay full rent during the first lockdown in March–April 2020. These households held back two-thirds of their contractually due rent on average. Financially fragile households with large income cuts withheld a greater share. Both formal and relational aspects of the landlord-tenant relationship affected payments: tenants paid more of their rent if their leases included formal provisions against non-payment, and less if they had strong relationships with their landlords. We use bargaining and relational contract theories to explain our findings.
我们研究COVID-19大流行期间的住宅租赁付款。对以色列租房者的一项调查显示，在2020年3月至4月的第一次封锁期间，近八分之一的人没有支付全额租金。这些家庭平均拖欠了合同到期租金的三分之二。收入大幅削减的财务脆弱家庭保留了更大的份额。房东-租户关系的正式和关系方面都会影响租金的支付:如果租约中包含了防止不付款的正式条款，租户就会支付更多的租金，而如果他们与房东关系密切，他们就会支付更少的租金。我们使用议价和关系契约理论来解释我们的发现。
17.Populist Persuasion in Electoral Campaigns: Evidence from Bryan's Unique Whistle-Stop Tour
选举活动中的民粹主义游说:布莱恩独特的哨站之旅的证据
Johannes C Buggle, Stephanos Vlachos
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 493–515, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac056
This paper examines the effect of campaign appearances in the context of the one-sided nationwide tour by William J. Bryan, the Democratic US presidential candidate in 1896. During this electoral campaign, Bryan undertook an unprecedented whistle-stop train tour, while the Republican candidate followed a front-porch campaign. To identify the causal effect of campaign speeches, we exploit several estimation strategies, including a within-county difference-in-differences design and a neighbour-pair fixed effect estimator. We find that campaign visits by Bryan increased his vote share by about one percentage point on average. This increase likely stems from the persuasion of previously non-aligned industrial workers.
本文以1896年美国民主党总统候选人威廉·布莱恩(William J. Bryan)的全国一面之词为背景，考察了竞选活动露面的影响。在这次竞选活动中，布莱恩进行了一次前所未有的火车旅行，而共和党候选人则进行了一次前门竞选。为了确定竞选演讲的因果效应，我们采用了几种估计策略，包括县内双重差异设计和邻对固定效应估计。我们发现布莱恩的竞选访问使他的选票平均增加了一个百分点。这种增长可能是由于以前的不结盟产业工人的说服。
18.The Interplay Among Savings Accounts and Network-Based Financial Arrangements: Evidence from a Field Experiment
储蓄账户和基于网络的金融部署之间的相互作用:来自实地实验的证据
Margherita Comola, Silvia Prina
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 516–535, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac053
This paper studies how formal financial access affects network-based financial arrangements. We use a field experiment that granted access to a savings account to a random subset of households in 19 Nepalese villages. Exploiting a unique panel dataset that follows all bilateral informal financial transactions before and after the intervention, we show that households that were offered access to an account increased their loans and total transfers to others, independent of the treatment status of the receiver. The increase seemed to be driven by treatment households with more assets and greater financial inclusion at baseline.
本文研究了正规金融渠道对网络金融安排的影响。我们进行了一项实地实验，在尼泊尔的19个村庄中随机选取了一部分家庭，允许他们使用储蓄账户。利用跟踪干预前后所有双边非正式金融交易的独特面板数据集，我们发现，获得账户准入的家庭增加了其贷款和向他人转移的总额，而与接收方的待遇状况无关。这一增长似乎是由在基线时拥有更多资产和更大金融包容性的处理组家庭推动的。
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