“在无畏契约季前邀请赛的第一把NRG森寒冬港上半场3-9的劣势情况下，换边之后出现了出奇翻盘并取得图一森寒冬港胜利。不论是下到平常竞技组排还是上到职业比赛，我们不禁有个问题:9-3魔咒真的存在吗？由官方玩家反馈收集组发布的文章-9:3魔咒，调查并总结了9-3魔咒。”

原文来自2022年12月20日于官方发布的资料大揭秘

以下是正文与译文

WHAT IS THE “9-3 CURSE?” 何为9:3魔咒？

Somewhere in the years since VALORANT’s release, the legend of the 9-3 curse was born. Believers in the curse quickly turn to panic mode when they enter halftime with a leading score of 9 round wins to 3. The “curse” being that the team with the 3 round wins has an unusually high chance to come back and either win the whole game, or bring it back to a 12-12 tie, leading to an overtime. 

⾃⽆畏契约发布以来，93孕育⽽⽣。上半场拿到9分时有些玩家便开始惊慌失措，⽽对⾯拥有扳回下 半场的神秘⼒量，亦或是打进加时赛 

So what does the actual data say? 

⽽实际数据反映了什么？

BY THE NUMBERS 数据说话

For the purposes of this article, the VALORANT Insights team gathered data from a query that examined over 25 million competitive matches. A nice, juicy sample size. 

出于本⽂的宗旨，⽆畏契约玩家反馈收集团队（以下简称我们团队）收集了2500万场竞技⽐赛数 据，得到了⼀份清晰⽽⼜丰富的样本

So first, let’s look at a simple graph—Real World Comeback Rate, or the rate at which the teams in our sample were able to mount a comeback when behind at the half. For this article, we considered a comeback to be either a 13-round win or a forced overtime by the team that was trailing at the half, regardless of whether that team won or lost in OT. 

⾸先，先看看图表-竞技实际翻盘率，样本中队伍能够在下半场扳回⽐赛的⽐例。在本⽂，我们认为 落后的队伍在加时赛不论如何，要么扳回下半场，要么打进加时 

When we look at the average comeback rate of a team in relation to the number of rounds that team is trailing at the half, we start to see a pretty obvious trend. 

我们观察队伍平均翻盘率以及队伍轮换差距的回合关系时，我们开始注意到⼗分明显的趋势 For example, a team that’s trailing 5-7 at the half still wins or forces overtime 40.28% of the time. And a team that’s down 0-12 only pulls off a reverse sweep to win or force OT 0.05% of the time—approximately a 1 in 2000 chance. Oof. 

⽐如说，上半场队伍拿了5-7有40.28%概率翻盘或者打进加时赛，⽽上半场零封的队伍仅有渺茫的 0.05%概率翻盘或者打进加时赛，估计2000场⽐赛仅有1场是这样，omg！ 

This chart shows that in over 25 million games, teams trailing 3-9 at the half only have an 11.18% chance to tie or win by the end of the game. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. 

表格显示在我们收集的2500多万的对局中，上半场3-9的队伍仅有11.18%概率翻盘或者平局，可这 只是冰⼭⼀⻆罢了

DIGGING DEEPER 深⼊探索

An 11.18% chance to lose a 9-3 lead doesn’t seem like quite enough to spark up rumors of a curse. 

以11.18%概率被翻似乎并⾮⾜够引起9-3诅咒的谣⾔ 

So the Insights team decided to conjure up some mathematical wizardry to create projections for how a team should theoretically perform in a given situation. These projections help us find out how much better or worse teams are performing compared to the mathematical odds against them. 

因此，我们团队决定引⼊数学知识，在特定条件下为队伍预期表现提出预测。这些有助于我们发现 队伍的发挥相⽐于数学概率是好还是坏。

For the projected rates in this second graph, the team looked at factors like map, attacking/ defending side, and rounds-won at halftime. Then, they looked at the actual win rates observed in those 25 million+ comp matches. 

图⼆的预测⽐例，是我们团队考虑了地图、阵营以及上半场得分这些因素。然后查看了从2500万多场⽐赛中得到的实际胜率的结果

 Ascent 亚海悬城 意境空島 

Bind 源⼯重镇 劫境之地 

Breeze 微⻛岛屿 熱帶樂園 

Fracture 裂变峡⾕ 天漠之峽

Haven 隐世修所 遺落境地 

Icebox 森寒冬港 極地寒港 

Pearl 深海明珠 深海遺珠

For example, according to the calculations, a team trailing 4-8 at the half on Ascent should have a Z% chance to win the game. But when we looked at the numbers, we found that players were actually winning Z+4.75% of the time. Basically, teams are beating the odds by nearly 5 percentage points. Here’s where things start to get interesting. 

举个例⼦，根据计算结果，在亚海悬城4-8的落伍应该有⼀个确切的机会翻盘。但观察数字时，发现 玩家其实有略⾼机会翻盘。 

If you look at the two graphs above, one would expect them to follow a similar downward trend as the overall comeback rates—the more rounds you’re behind, the less likely you are to beat the odds. But what we actually see is a big hump with 8-4 and 9-3 scores. And the differences between 8-4 and 9-3 are surprisingly close. 

如果⼀起分析俩张图表，预计会按照⽐赛翻盘率呈类似地下降趋势，就是越落后，越难翻盘。但实 际上我们看到的是8-4和9-3分数的⼤峰值，⽽俩者的差别有着出⼈意料的接近 

As we said, teams trailing 4-8 beat the projected odds 4.75% of the time more often than they should. And teams trailing 3-9 beat those odds 4.41% of the time. This is more than twice the jump in odds than we see at 7-5 or 10-2 and it accounts for that peak in the data with 9-3 and 8-4 scores. 

如上⽂所⾔，4-8落后的队伍有着⽐预期更⾼的4.75%概率翻盘，⽽3-9有4.41%的概率翻盘。这⽐ 我们看到的7-5和10-2提升了两倍多胜率，也说明了9-3和8-4的数据峰值 

So what’s going on?

因此这发⽣了什么？

CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND YOU (DOLLA DOLLA BILLS, Y’ALL) 

经济⾄上(⾦钱洒满)

 PISTOL+ECO+BONUS 简写P.E.B，即⼿枪局，ECO局，奖励局 

⼿枪局是指双⽅在上下半场第⼀回合开始利⽤最初的800信币进⾏⽐赛的回合 

奖励局是指⼿枪局胜者在第⼆回合胜利后，利用第二回合留下来的武器在第三回合与长枪全甲全技能的手枪局败方进行比赛

ECO局是指⼀⽅队伍在本回合经济不⾜或者绝⼤部分队友⽆法为下⼀回合⻓枪全技能决定为第三回合⻓枪全甲全技能省钱 

以上是为方便看懂下文做的介绍

There’s a lot of talk about the economy these days, and VALORANT is no exception. The Insights team had a hunch that econ was playing a big role in 9-3 curse perception since each team gets a big economic reset at the half. 

最近有很多关于经济的话题，⽽⽆畏契约也毫不例外。我们团队猜测经济从队伍换边重置开始在9-3 魔咒起关键作⽤ 

And since our projected numbers in the previous section cannot factor in either team’s economy, the team wanted to take a closer look at our real world data to see how an economic advantage or disadvantage could change the outcome of a game—especially when a 9-3 score was recorded at the half. 

⾃我们在上⼀节预测数字不能在考虑双⽅经济因素，我们团队想更近⼀步查看数据以发现经济优势 与劣势是如何改变对战结果，尤其是9-3下半场 

Because the first few rounds of each half are often played in a very similar way, the team knew it would be important to capture how the outcomes of these rounds affect the odds. And when we visualize the data, it starts to paint a very clear picture of just how crucial that halftime econ reset actually is. 

因为上下半场的前⾯⼏回合通常⼗分相似，队伍明⽩赢下前⾯⼏回合会如何影响到后续回合。 我们整理数据时，中场经济重置开始显得重要起来

So let’s look at the real world comeback rate for trailing teams based on some different halftime-reset win conditions in relation to their starting score at the half. According to the data, the odds of a comeback increase or decrease dramatically depending on how well a team performs in what we internally refer to as the P.E.B. rounds—the pistol round that starts the half, the following eco round, and/or the bonus income round. 

因此，先来看看基于不同中场经济重置胜利条件有关半场起始分的落伍翻盘率。根据数据结果，翻盘率剧烈起伏由队伍在P.E.B局-上下半场开始第⼀回合，⼿枪局后的eco局以及⼿枪局胜者的奖励局 发挥如何决定它的变化 

From that graph, we can see that in 25M+ competitive games, teams who were trailing 3-9 only won 0.33% of games when they lost all three P.E.B. rounds at the half, effectively making their score 3-12. And on the flip side, 3-9 teams who won the pistol, eco, and bonus rounds win 36.33% of games and bring their score to 6-9 with a very large economic advantage. That’s a more than a 1 in 3 chance to win the game when trailing 3-9 if you win the first three rounds at the halftime switch—raising your odds to win by over 100x when compared to winning no P.E.B. rounds. 

上⽂的图表，得出在庞⼤的竞技⽐赛⾥，3-9落后的队伍在PEB局失败后仅有0.3%胜率翻盘，实际 结果为3-12。相反的，如果他们赢下，就有更⾼的36.33%概率以庞⼤的经济优势追到6-9。如果赢下下半场的前三回合就有超三分之⼀的概率扭转乾坤，⽐输掉前三回合提⾼了超100倍的概率 

Now that’s starting to look much more common than we thought. With these numbers in- mind, we can start to make some even better predictions. 

现在开始这些⽐起预期的看起来更家常便饭了。有了这些数据，我们能作出更⼤胆的预测了

PRIORITIZE THE P.E.B. 

抢占先机(优先考虑P.E.B)

Once again, these numbers look pretty definitive when viewed in a statistics vacuum. But that’s not what statisticians do. It’s important to apply more context, rather than just interpreting the raw data alone. So the Insights team conjured up some more mathematical projections that factor in variables like map, attacking/defending side, and halftime score.

同样的，以不严谨的事实看待时，这些数据看起来太靠谱了。可这并不是数据师们⼲的活。与其单 独把起初的数据讲给他们，结合上下⽂更重要。因此我们引⼊了⼀些更多的数学模型，把地图、双⽅阵容以及半场得分作为考虑因素 

And the comparisons between the projected comeback rates and real world comeback rates confirmed that the halftime reset is no joke. For teams trying to flip the script, prioritizing P.E.B. rounds is serious business. 

以预期和实际翻盘率做对⽐，证实半场重置是真的。因为落伍们要翻盘，拿下前三回合是重中之重 

For example, we already mentioned that a team that’s trailing 3-9 at the half has an 11.18% chance of winning the game or forcing an OT. But if that same team manages to win all P.E.B. rounds, they end up winning Z+28.91% of their games, where Z is their projected odds to win at halftime. On the flip side, if that team loses all three rounds, their win rate plummets to Z-7%. 

打个⽐⽅：我们已经提到过3-9的落伍⽅有11.18%概率翻盘或者打进加时。但如果相同的队伍成功 赢下前三回合，那么他们以Z+28.91%的概率结束并赢下这场⽐赛，这⾥的Z是指半场得分的预期概率。另⼀边，如果队伍输掉前三回合，胜率会降到Z-7% 

So sweeping or getting swept in the P.E.B. rounds means the difference between a healthy 1 in 3 chance to mount a comeback, or a dismal 1 in 300 chance to do so. 

因此拿下前三回合还是输掉意味着赢下有三分之⼀的概率扳回局势，或者说有三百分之⼀的概率随缘赢

SOO… 9-3 CURSE—REAL OR MYTH? 是真的吗

Answer: It’s complicated. 只能说：谁也说不清

If you’re one of those players who thinks a 9-3 lead is an automatic loss, then it’s safe to say, sorry—myth busted. But if your idea of the curse is simply that something feels weird about a 9-3 halftime score, then yes, you might be onto something. 

如果你是上述信服魔咒的玩家，那么能肯定地说-抱歉，魔咒不⽴。但如果你对魔咒的上半场得分感 到奇怪，那么你可能中招了（换句话说：越感到质疑越容易发⽣） 

From the numbers, we can confidently state that your overall chances of winning a game when trailing 3-9 are much lower than the chances of the other team (and also much lower than if you were down 4-8 instead). But that does come with some caveats. 

从上⽂表格来看，我们能⾃信地说在处于3-9劣势时本场胜利机会要低于其他⽐分的（同时也会低于 4-8的队伍），但是也会激发你们的战⼒ 

As we saw in the second graph, the real world trends for 9-3 scores are a liiiittle different from their projections in relation to the others scores on the graph. So something is happening when a 9-3 score occurs at the half. But what? 

正如第⼆表格分析，全球实际9-3⽐分趋势相⽐图表其他⽐分有⼀丝丝不同。因此上半场9-3时会有 神秘事件发⽣，但会是什么呢？

Are winning teams getting spooked? Are trailing teams getting motivated? Is it all about the economy? 领先的队伍会被翻吗？⽽落后队伍会乘胜追击吗？经济会是魔咒的⼀切吗？

We gave our primary researcher, Ash “Riot Kona” Garrett, the last word on their findings. 

我们请来了主要研究员，Ash “Riot Kona” Garrett，做本⽂的收尾

“I personally don’t think there’s anything inherent to a 9-3 score that causes players to lose games. Rather, it’s probably more likely that players are overestimating the safety that a 9-3 lead provides,” Ash said. “According to our projections, a 9-3 lead shouldn’t actually be too uncommon between evenly matched teams. We might have cases of leading teams seeing a skill diff that actually isn’t there and getting a little too comfortable, while trailing teams are taking advantage of both an economic and mental reset—with a little help from the myth of the ‘curse.’”。 

她说：“我个⼈不认为9-3分数导致玩家输掉⽐赛的固有因素，相反，玩家会更有可能⾼估领先的安全感”。她再次说道“根据我们的预测，实际上9-3在实⼒相似地双⽅之间应该很常⻅，我们有好⼏ 例top队伍发现双⽅势均⼒敌，能带来双⽅都尽兴的⽐赛，⽽落后队伍在魔咒的⼩⼩加持下有着经济和⼼理调节的优势”。