经济学人 | Entertainment 娱乐（2023年第14期）

文章来源：《经济学人》Feb 18th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目 Green energy

Nelson peltz is a man accustomed to winning. So when his hedge fund, Trian Partners, called off a proxy fight for a seat on Disney’s board on February 9th, it was no surrender. A day earlier Bob Iger, Disney’s newly returned ceo, announced sweeping changes to the entertainment powerhouse of the sort Trian had sought.

纳尔逊·佩尔茨是个习惯于胜利的人。因此，当他的对冲基金Trian Partners在2月9日取消了争夺迪士尼董事会席位的代理权之争时，这并不是投降。一天前，迪士尼新回归的首席执行官鲍勃·艾格宣布对这家娱乐巨头进行全面改革，这正是Trian所寻求的。

A new organisational structure will shift power from bean-counters back to creative teams. That reverses the changes under Bob Chapek, whom Mr Iger hand-picked as successor in early 2020 and then replaced in November. Operating costs will be slashed by $2.5bn, with a further $3bn to be cut from content spending, together equivalent to 8% of expenses; 7,000 staff will go. To stanch financial losses at its Disney+ streaming service, in December Mr Iger raised subscription prices in America by 38%. Disney will sit out the “global arms race for subscribers”, he says. Instead, he hinted that it may license more of its catalogue to competing platforms to juice profits. To top it off, Disney will restart paying out dividends by the end of 2023.

一种新的组织结构将把权力从精打细算的人转移到创意团队。这颠覆了鲍勃·查佩克领导下的变革，艾格在2020年初亲自挑选了他作为继任者，然后在去年11月将其取代。运营成本将削减25亿美元，内容支出将再削减30亿美元，合计相当于支出的8%; 7000名员工将离职。为了弥补迪士尼+流媒体服务的财务损失，去年12月，艾格将美国的订阅价格提高了38%。他表示，迪士尼将不参与“争夺订阅用户的全球军备竞赛”。相反，他暗示他可能会将更多产品目录授权给竞争对手的平台，以提高利润。最重要的是，迪士尼将在2023年底重新开始分红。

For all that, Mr Iger left several key questions unanswered. The first concerns Disney’s long-term plan for streaming, which he has yet to articulate. Mr Iger has said he wants to focus on “core brands and franchises”. Their online home is Disney+. He also wants to avoid “undifferentiated” general entertainment. That is the preserve of Hulu, a streamer two-thirds-owned by Disney. Disney’s arrangement with Comcast, a cable giant that owns the remaining third, is set to expire in 2024. Hulu’s slowing growth and deteriorating margins suggest that the status quo is no longer working. Comcast’s boss indicated in September he would be open to buying Disney’s stake “if it was up for sale”. Mr Iger must decide whether to let go of Hulu’s shows, which according to Parrot Analytics, a data firm, do better than those of Disney+ with older viewers and women, or to fork over around $9bn for Comcast’s stake.

尽管如此，艾格仍留下了几个关键问题没有回答。第一个问题涉及迪士尼在流媒体领域的长期计划，他还没有明确表示。艾格曾表示，他希望专注于“核心品牌和特许经营”。他们的在线家园是Disney+。他还希望避免“无差别”的一般娱乐。这是Hulu的专利，迪士尼持有 Hulu 三分之二的股份。迪士尼与有线电视巨头康卡斯特的协议将于2024年到期，康卡斯特拥有Hulu剩余的三分之一。Hulu的增长放缓和利润率恶化表明，现状不再适用。康卡斯特的老板曾在9月份表示，“如果迪士尼的股份可以出售”，他愿意购买。艾格必须决定是放弃Hulu的节目(根据数据公司Parrot Analytics的数据，Hulu的节目在老年观众和女性观众中比Disney+的节目表现更好)，还是拿出约90亿美元收购康卡斯特手里的股份。

The second unresolved question for Disney relates to another part of its media empire, ESPN. The sports network has always been an uneasy fit with Disney’s strategy, first laid out in 1957 by its founder, Walt Disney, of monetising creative franchises across several formats and distribution channels. Mr Iger’s decision to split espn out as a separate business unit is a tacit recognition of its awkward position. For now, Mr Iger says Disney has no intention of spinning out espn. That may change if the firm decides to make another big acquisition, either of Hulu or, say, in the rapidly growing market for video games. Given Disney’s hefty $40bn of net debt, proceeds from the sale of espn may be needed to help bankroll any deal.

迪士尼尚未解决的第二个问题与其媒体帝国的另一部分，即ESPN有关。体育网络一直不太符合迪士尼的战略，该战略由其创始人沃尔特·迪士尼于1957年首次提出，即通过多种形式和分销渠道将创意特许经营权货币化。艾格决定将ESPN分拆为一个独立的业务部门，这是对其尴尬处境的默认。艾格表示，目前迪士尼无意分拆ESPN。如果该公司决定再进行一次大规模收购，比如收购Hulu，或者是快速增长的视频游戏市场，这种情况可能会改变。考虑到迪士尼400亿美元的巨额净债务，出售ESPN的收益可能可以为任何交易提供资金。

That is a lot for Mr Iger to sort out in the 22 months he has left on his contract, during which he must also find an abler successor than Mr Chapek. Disney’s market value of $200bn or so is up by 19% since his return, suggesting that investors have more faith in him than they did in the other Bob (see chart). But they may trust him less than they did his younger self: the firm is still worth $60bn less than when he retired in early 2020.

艾格的合同还剩22个月，在此期间他还必须找到一位比查佩克更有能力的继任者。自他回归以来，迪士尼2000亿美元左右的市值上涨了19%，这表明投资者对他的信心超过了对另一个鲍勃的信心(见图表)。但他们对他的信任可能不如年轻时那么深: 与他2020年初退休时相比，该公司的市值仍少了600亿美元。