The Brexit rollercoaster

脱欧的过山车

To stop no-deal, Tory MPs must be ready to bring down Boris Johnson

为了阻止无协议脱欧，保守党议员必须准备好让鲍里斯•约翰逊下台

Britain’s new prime minister promises thrills, but is heading for a serious spill

英国新首相承诺会让人兴奋，但即将面临严重的坠落

Jul 27th 2019

“DO YOU LOOK daunted? Do you feel daunted?” asked Boris Johnson of the crowd of Conservative Party members who had just elected him party leader, and thus prime minister. The question was rhetorical, but many of them did look nervous—and so they should. Britain now has its third Tory prime minister since the vote to leave the European Union three years ago. Its deadlocked Parliament is refusing to back the exit deal struck with the EU, even as an October 31st deadline approaches. The pound is wilting at the prospect of crashing out with no deal. Steering a course out of this mess requires an extraordinarily deft political touch. Yet the Tories have gambled, choosing a populist leader who is nobody’s idea of a safe pair of hands.

“你看起来很沮丧吗?”你感到气馁吗?鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在刚刚选举他为保守党领袖、进而成为英国首相的人群中问道。这个问题只是口头上的，但他们中的许多人看上去确实很紧张——他们也应该如此。自三年前脱欧公投以来，英国迎来了第三位保守党首相。其陷入僵局的议会拒绝支持与欧盟达成的脱欧协议，尽管10月31日是最后期限。英镑因无法达成协议而崩溃的前景而萎靡不振。要想走出这种混乱局面，就需要极其娴熟的政治手腕。然而，保守党已经下了赌注，选择了一位民粹主义领导人，但没有人认为他是可靠的人选。

词汇

Daunted/被威吓的，气馁，畏缩

Rhetorical/修辞学的；夸张的

Deadlocked/僵局的；陷入僵局的

Wilt/枯萎；（人）变得委靡不振

Deft/敏捷熟练的

Populist/平民主义的；民粹主义的

Mr Johnson, who wrote a biography of Winston Churchill and longs for others to see him in that mould, resembles his hero in the sense that he has inherited Britain’s worst crisis since the second world war. Brexit, and a no-deal exit in particular, promises to hurt the economy and leave the country diplomatically isolated in a world where its interests are under threat, as they are right now in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk is existential for the United Kingdom, as Brexit wrenches at the bonds with Scotland and Northern Ireland.

约翰逊先生为温斯顿•丘吉尔写了一本传记，他渴望别人也能看到丘吉尔的这种性格。从某种意义上说，他继承了二战以来英国最严重的危机，这一点与他心目中的英雄颇为相似。英国退欧，尤其是不达成协议的退出，承诺将损害英国经济，使该国在外交上处于于一个其利益受到威胁的被孤立的地位，就像目前在霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)一样。随着英国脱欧对英国与苏格兰和北爱尔兰的债券造成冲击，这种风险对英国来说是生死攸关的。

词汇

Mould/（人的）个性，类型

Existential/存在主义的；有关存在的

 

At a time of national gloom, the Tories hope that Mr Johnson’s ebullience will be enough to “ping off the guy-ropes of self-doubt”, as he put it in his jokey acceptance speech. We hope they are right. But in reality his breezy style seems not so much boldly Churchillian as unthinkingly reckless. To get to Downing Street he has made wild promises about Brexit that he cannot possibly keep. His fantastical approach means he is fast heading for no-deal—and therefore a face-off with Parliament, which seems determined to stop that outcome. Britain should get ready for one of the bumpiest governments in its modern history. It could also be the shortest.

在全国经济低迷之际，保守党希望约翰逊先生的热情足以“消除自我怀疑的心理障碍”，正如他在获奖感言中开玩笑说的那样。我们希望他们是对的。但实际上，他轻松活泼的风格与其说是大胆的邱吉尔式，不如说是不假思索的鲁莽。为了入主唐宁街【引申为竞选首相】，他对英国退欧做出了他不可能兑现的疯狂承诺。他的这种异想天开的做法意味着他很快就会走向不达成协议的境地，因此他将与议会对峙，而议会似乎决心要阻止这一结果。英国应该为其现代史上最糟糕的政府之一做好准备。它也可能是最短命的。

词汇

Ebullience/  奔放；兴高采烈

guy-rope/钢缆；拉绳

bumpiest【bumpy】/颠簸的；崎岖不平的

 

As they waited for the decision of Tory members, ordinary Britons, who had no say in who would succeed Theresa May as prime minister, were left wondering which version of Mr Johnson they would get. Would it be socially liberal, pro-immigration Boris, or born-again Eurosceptic Boris? Chameleon that he is, Mr Johnson has mimicked the increasingly hardline politics of Tory members. In a surprisingly savage reshuffle, he has appointed right-wingers to his cabinet: Priti Patel, a past advocate of the death penalty, is home secretary, and Dominic Raab, an uncompromising Brexiteer, is foreign secretary. Mr Johnson’s belief that Donald Trump could provide a “lifeboat” to Britain as it abandons the EU stopped him from criticising the president, even when Mr Trump belittled the British ambassador to Washington. Such pandering is dangerous at a time when Britain should be standing up to American policy on Iran.

在等待保守党成员的决定时，普通英国人没有发言权决议谁将接替特里萨•梅(Theresa May)担任英国首相，不禁想知道他们将得到的是哪个版本的约翰逊。是支持移民的社会自由主义者鲍里斯，还是重生的欧洲怀疑论者鲍里斯?约翰逊是变色龙，他模仿了保守党成员日益强硬的政治立场。在一场令人惊讶的野蛮重组中，他任命右翼人士进入内阁:前死刑倡导者普里蒂•帕特尔(Priti Patel)担任内政大臣，毫不妥协的脱欧派人士多米尼克•拉布(Dominic Raab)担任外交大臣。约翰逊认为，在英国抛弃欧盟之际，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可以为英国提供一艘“救生艇”，这一信念阻止了他对总统的批评，即便是在特朗普贬低英国驻华盛顿大使的时候。在英国应该勇敢面对美国对伊朗政策的时候，这种迎合是危险的。

词汇

Mimick/模仿，摹拟

Reshuffle/重新洗牌

 

Most worrying is his otherworldly Brexit plan. Mrs May was undone by making unrealistic promises about the deal Britain would get, pledges she spent two miserable years rowing back from. Mr Johnson has made the same mistake on a larger scale. He swears he will bin the “backstop” designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland, which the EU insists is non-negotiable. He says Britain need not pay the exit bill it agreed on. He has vowed to leave on October 31st, “do or die”. And he says that if the EU does not roll over, it would be “vanishingly inexpensive” for Britain to leave with no deal. Mrs May found the contact with reality hard enough. For Mr Johnson it will be even more brutal.

最令人担忧的是他超凡脱俗的脱欧计划。梅因对英国将获得的协议做出不切实际的承诺而一败涂地，她痛苦地花了两年时间才收回这些承诺。约翰逊在更大范围内也犯了同样的错误。他发誓，他将放弃旨在避免爱尔兰硬边界的“后援”，欧盟坚称这是不可谈判的。他说，英国不需要支付它同意的退出法案。他发誓要在10月31日离开，“要么做，要么死”。他还表示，如果欧盟不支持延期，英国不达成无条件协议就退出欧盟的代价将“低得近乎于零”。梅发现，与现实的谈判已经够艰难的了。对约翰逊来说，这将更加残酷。

词汇

Otherworldly/超脱尘俗的

roll over/翻滚；转存；延缓付款

Vanishingly/难以察觉地；趋于零地

The Brexit rollercoaster has one turning that leads away from disaster. Mr Johnson has such a capacity for flip-flopping that, once in Downing Street and faced with the consequences of his promises, it is conceivable that he may simply drop them. His charm might help guide a slightly modified deal through Parliament. Europe is ready to help. But the chance that he will compromise seems slight. Whereas Mrs May had two years to retreat from her overblown commitments, Mr Johnson has just three months to eat his words. The Conservatives’ working majority is only three (and may go down to one after a by-election next week), with plenty of rebels on both the Brexit and Remain wings. So doing a deal would probably mean working with Labour, whose price is a second referendum. That would be a good outcome for the country, which deserves a chance to say whether the warts-and-all reality of Brexit matches up to the fantasy version it was sold in 2016. But the red lines in which Mr Johnson has entangled himself will probably keep such a deal out of reach.

英国退欧的云霄飞车有一个转折点，可以让人们远离灾难。约翰逊有如此大的转变能力，以至于一旦入主唐宁街，面对自己承诺的后果，他很可能干脆放弃这些承诺。他的魅力可能有助于引导议会通过一项稍作修改的协议。欧洲已经准备好提供帮助。但他妥协的可能性似乎很小。特蕾莎•梅有两年时间可以从言过其实的承诺中抽身，而约翰逊只有三个月时间收回自己的话。保守党的工作多数派只有三个(下周补缺选举后可能会减少到一个)，在脱欧和留欧问题上都有很多反对派。因此，达成协议可能意味着与工党合作，而工党的代价是第二次公投。这对英国来说将是一个好结果，英国应该有机会说一下，英国退欧的种种现实是否与2016年抛出的幻想版本相符。但是约翰逊先生所处的红线很可能会使这样的协议无法达成。

词汇

Rebel/反叛者，叛徒

Entangled/卷入的；被缠住的

 

That means the risk is growing that Mr Johnson will set a course for no-deal, billing it as courageous and Churchillian rather than the needless act of self-harm it really is. Some Brexiteers are following his lead in blustering that the warnings of damage to the economy, the union and Britain’s international standing are fake news. Others argue that those are simply the costs of getting Brexit done. But a no-deal exit would not accomplish even that. Talks with the EU on unresolved aspects of the relationship would have to resume, only with Britain outside the club and negotiating on worse terms than before. As for upholding democracy, there is no mandate for no-deal, which was not in the Leave prospectus, nor advocated by any party in the last election. Indeed, it is opposed by majorities of both Parliament and the public. Some hardline Brexiteers say Parliament should be suspended so that no-deal can be forced through—in the name of democracy. The grotesqueness of this speaks for itself. Yet Mr Johnson has not ruled it out.

这意味着，约翰逊将为“无条件”设定一条道路的风险越来越大，他认为这是一种勇敢的、邱吉尔式的行为，而不是实际上不必要的自我伤害行为。一些脱欧派人士效仿他的做法，大肆宣扬有关英国经济、欧盟和国际地位受损的警告是假新闻。其他人则认为，这些只是完成英国退欧的成本。但即便如此，无协议脱欧也无法实现这一点。与欧盟就双边关系中尚未解决的问题进行的谈判将不得不重启，只需要与欧盟以外的英国重启谈判，并以比以往更糟糕的条件进行谈判。至于维护民主，没有“无条件”的授权，这既不在脱欧纲领中，也不是任何政党在上次选举中所提倡的。事实上，它遭到了议会和公众的多数反对。一些强硬的脱欧派人士表示，应该暂停议会，以便以民主的名义强行达成无条件协议。这种荒诞本身就说明了问题。然而，约翰逊并没有排除这种可能性。

词汇

Bluster/咆哮，气势汹汹地说

Grotesqueness/丑怪；可笑；怪诞

Mandate/授权；命令

If he tries such a reckless gambit, Parliament must stand in his way. It may be that its only course is a vote of no confidence. That would need at least some Conservative MPs to vote to bring down their own government, something that has not happened since rebel Tories helped turf out Neville Chamberlain in 1940. It would mean yet more uncertainty. Today’s polls show a four-party split, making any resulting election a lottery. But wavering Tories should be in no doubt that if Mr Johnson is allowed to suspend democracy to force through a no-deal Brexit that whacks the economy and risks the union, it will not only be a betrayal of the country, it might well spell the end of the Conservative Party. And Mr Johnson should be in no doubt that unless he ditches the fantastical promises and gets serious about doing a deal, he may end up being compared not to Churchill, but to Chamberlain.

如果他尝试这样一种不计后果的策略，议会必须阻止他。或许，它唯一的出路就是投出不信任票。这至少需要一些保守党议员投票推翻他们自己的政府，这是自1940年造反的保守党帮助内维尔·张伯伦(Neville Chamberlain)下台以来从未发生过的事情。这将意味着更多的不确定性。今天的民意调查显示四党分裂，任何选举结果都是难以预测。但是摇摆不定的保守党应该在是否允许约翰逊先生暂停民主力量通过无条件脱欧做出果断抉择，因为这会对英国联邦造成经济损失和风险,这不仅是对国家的背叛,这更可能是对于保守党的终结。约翰逊应该毫不怀疑，除非他放弃不切实际的承诺，认真对待达成协议，否则他最终可能会被拿来与张伯伦(Chamberlain)相比，而不是与丘吉尔(Churchill)相比。

词汇

Gambit/话题；开始；以取得优势的开局棋法

turf out/扔掉（东西）；赶走（人）

lottery/彩票；碰运气的事，难算计的事

whack/重打；猛击；击败；削减