文章来源：《经济学人》Mar 4th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目 Tech investing 科技投资

Until last year, venture capital (vc) had been riding high. With interest rates close to zero and little yield to be found elsewhere, large companies, hedge funds and sovereign-wealth investors began ploughing cash into startups, sending valuations upwards. In 2021 alone the amount of money flowing to startups doubled to nearly $640bn. Then soaring inflation and surging interest rates brought the market crashing down. Last year the investments made in startups worldwide sank by a third. Between the final quarter of 2021 and the same period in 2022, the valuations of private startups tumbled by 56%.

直到去年，风投一直顺风顺水。由于利率接近于零，而且在其他地方几乎找不到收益，大公司、对冲基金和主权财富投资者开始向初创公司投入资金，并推高了它们的估值。仅2021年一年，流向初创公司的资金就翻了一番，达到近6400亿美元。随后，飙升的通货膨胀和利率导致市场崩溃。去年，全球对创业公司的投资下降了三分之一。从2021年最后一个季度到2022年同期，私人初创公司的估值暴跌了56%。

The downturn inevitably draws comparisons to the dotcom crash of 2000-01, when deep winter set in and vc investments froze. Luckily for both founders and their backers, conditions are not so frosty today. Startups’ balance-sheets are stronger than they were 20 years ago; valuations are not quite so detached from revenues. In America alone, venture capitalists have about $300bn in dry powder. Nonetheless, the industry that is emerging from the tech slump and into an era of dearer money looks different from the one that went into it. In many respects, vc is returning to the ways of decades past.

这次低迷不可避免地让人将其与2000-2001年的互联网泡沫崩溃相提并论，当时寒冬降临，风险投资冻结。幸运的是，对于创始人和他们的支持者来说，今天的情况没有那么严峻。创业公司的资产负债表比20年前更强健; 估值与收入并不是那么脱节。仅在美国，风险资本家就拥有约3000亿美元的资金。尽管如此，这个正在从科技衰退中走出、进入资金更加昂贵时代的行业，看起来与当初进入时有所不同。在许多方面，风投正在回归几十年前的方式。

One change is a focus on small, profitable firms. This is a habit venture investing sometimes forgot in the boom years, when rapid growth and the hope of big profits tomorrow were prized over profits today. Many backers who were in search of a quick return piled into older, “late-stage” startups, which would probably go public soon and seemed assured of heady valuations.

其中一个变化是关注盈利的小型公司。这是风投在繁荣时期有时会忘记的一个习惯，在繁荣时期，快速增长和对未来丰厚利润的希望比今天的利润更受重视。许多寻求快速回报的投资者纷纷投资于较老的“后期”初创公司，这些公司可能很快就会上市，而且似乎肯定会有令人兴奋的估值。

Today, however, stockmarkets are volatile, making it hard for venture investors to gauge the value of late-stage startups. As interest rates have risen, lossmakers have fallen out of favour: according to an index compiled by Goldman Sachs, the stock prices of unprofitable tech companies have fallen by two-thirds since November 2021. vcs, too, are telling their portfolio firms to tighten their belts and generate cash. Increasingly their new bets are on younger firms, and those which are cutting costs sharply and likely to turn a profit sooner.

然而，今天的股票市场动荡不安，使得风险投资者很难评估后期创业公司的价值。随着利率上升，亏损企业已经失宠: 根据高盛编制的一项指数，自2021年11月以来，不盈利的科技公司的股价下跌了三分之二。风投公司也在告诉他们的投资组合公司勒紧裤腰带赚钱。他们的新赌注越来越多地押在年轻的公司，以及那些大幅削减成本、可能更快实现盈利的公司身上。

A second shift is a renewed emphasis on strategic firms. In an echo of vc’s earliest days, when investors often backed semiconductor-makers that vied to win huge public contracts, many today are eyeing up firms in areas that stand to gain from governments’ new fondness for industrial policy. Administrations in both America and Europe, for instance, plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars supporting chip firms and clean tech.

第二个转变是对战略性企业的重新重视。在风投的早期，投资者通常会支持那些争抢巨额公共合同的半导体制造商，而今天，许多人都盯上了那些有望从政府钟爱的产业政策中获益的公司。例如，美国和欧洲的政府都计划花费数千亿美元来支持芯片公司和清洁技术。

Venture capitalists, understandably, know how to spot an opportunity. Andreessen Horowitz, a stalwart of Silicon Valley investing, has launched an “American Dynamism” fund that partly invests in firms which tap support from Uncle Sam. Other venture investors, including Temasek, a Singaporean sovereign-wealth fund, say they increasingly expect their investments to align with states’ strategic aims.

可以理解，风投知道如何发现机会。硅谷投资的坚定支持者安德森•霍洛维茨公司推出了一只“美国活力”基金，部分投资于那些获得美国政府支持的公司。包括新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡在内的其他风险投资者表示，他们越来越希望自己的投资能与国家的战略目标保持一致。

A final shift in vc’s approach is an emphasis on better governance. In the boom years too much venture money chased too few good investments. The mismatch gave founders the upper hand in negotiations, helping them keep oversight relatively light. After the spectacular blow up last year of ftx, a venture-backed crypto exchange, it became clear that none of ftx’s big venture- and sovereign-fund investors had taken seats on the startup’s board, leaving Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder, and his colleagues entirely to their own devices.

风投方法的最后一个转变是强调更好的治理。在经济繁荣时期，过多的风险资金追逐着太少的优质投资。这种不匹配让创始人在谈判中占据上风，帮助他们保持相对较轻的监管。在去年一家由风投支持的加密货币交易所ftx发生了惊人的暴雷之后，很明显，ftx的大型风险基金和主权基金投资者都没有在这家初创公司的董事会中占据席位，只留下创始人萨姆·班克曼-弗里德和他的同事们完全自由发挥。

Now venture finance is harder to come by. Tiger Global and other funds that were previously hands-off have started to retreat. Other investors say they intend to take up their board seats. That reduces the power of founders to dictate terms and should improve governance. A lack of venture dollars may also encourage startups to go public sooner, as might trustbusters’ greater scrutiny of big tech acquisitions. The knowledge that they might soon face scrutiny in the public markets could also discipline founders.

现在风险投资更难获得了。老虎全球管理基金和其他此前不插手的基金已开始撤退。其他投资者表示，他们打算接手董事会席位。这减少了创始人发号施令的权力，应该会改善公司治理。缺乏风险投资也可能会鼓励初创公司更快上市，反垄断机构对大型科技收购的更严格审查也可能会促使初创公司更快上市。他们可能很快就会在公开市场上面临审查，这一点也会对创始人形成约束。

This new sobriety will not last for ever. Venture capitalists are, by nature, excitable: look at the buzz over generative artificial intelligence. Some hedge funds have left venture investing after previous downturns only to return when valuations adjusted. In time the cycle will surely turn once more, sending vc investments to dizzying heights. For the moment, though, the old ways are back—and that marks a welcome change.

这种新的清醒不会永远持续下去。风险投资家天生就容易激动:看看生成式AI引发的热议吧。一些对冲基金在前几次经济低迷后离开风险投资，只是在估值调整后才回归。随着时间的推移，这个周期肯定会再次转向，将风险投资推向令人眼花缭乱的高度。然而，就目前而言，旧的方式又回来了，这标志着一个可喜的变化。