土豆的力量：土豆引种、人口增长和城市化（QJE2011）

题目：THE POTATO’S CONTRIBUTION TO POPULATION AND URBANIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM A HISTORICAL EXPERIMENT（土豆的力量：土豆引种、人口增长和城市化）

摘要：We exploit regional variation in suitability for cultivating potatoes, together with time variation arising from their introduction to the Old World from the Americas, to estimate the impact of potatoes on Old World population and urbanization. Our results show that the introduction of the potato was responsible for a significant portion of the increase in population and urbanization observed during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. According to our most conservative estimates, the introduction of the potato accounts for approximately one-quarter of the growth in Old World population and urbanization between 1700 and 1900. Additional evidence from within-country comparisons of city populations and adult heights also confirms the cross-country findings

研究问题：土豆的引种对于旧大陆人口增长和城市化进程的影响效应

研究动机：土豆这种新大陆作物引种对旧大陆人口增长的影响有很多定性的讨论，但由于内生性干扰导致相关定量研究难以开展，所以缺乏定量证据。（Despite qualitative accounts of the benefits of the potato to theOld World, empirical evidence quantifying the overall impact of thepotatois scarce.）

研究设计：以1700年为引种分割时点构建Post，以各国家适宜种植土豆面积这一连续变量为处理强度，构建DID

研究贡献：为土豆引种与人口增长和城市化进程提供定量证据，检验了农业生产力提升与经济增长的关系

特别的点：对于本文方法的详细讨论和基准回归之前的灵活估计，滚动回归

相关视频：

土豆的力量：引言

土豆的力量：研究背景

土豆的力量：概念框架，数据与实证策略

土豆的力量：灵活估计，滚动回归与基准回归

土豆的力量：稳健性检验与结论

土豆的力量：主要结果Stata复现

土豆的力量：稳健性结果Stata复现

注：个人翻译和解读，可能存在疏漏和错误,仅供参考(20220414)。