The world economy

世界经济

Markets are braced for a global downturn

市场已做好迎接全球经济衰退的准备

The signals from bonds, currencies and commodities are increasingly alarming

债券、货币和大宗商品传递来的信号越来越令人担忧

Aug 17th 2019

LOOKING FOR meaning in financial markets is like looking for patterns in a violent sea. The information that emerges is the product of buying and selling by people, with all their contradictions. Prices reflect a mix of emotion, biases and cold-eyed calculation. Yet taken together markets express something about both the mood of investors and the temper of the times. The most commonly ascribed signal is complacency. Dangers are often ignored until too late. However, the dominant mood in markets today, as it has been for much of the past decade, is not complacency but anxiety. And it is deepening by the day.

在金融市场中寻找内涵，就像在汹涌的大海中寻找规律。呈现在世人面前的信息是人们买卖的产物，存在着各种各样的矛盾。价格是情绪、偏见和冷静的计算三者综合的反映。然而，综合来看，市场既反映了投资者的情绪，也反映了时代的情绪。最常见的信号是自满。危险往往被忽视，直到为时已晚才被发觉。然而，与过去10年的大部分时间一样，如今市场的主导情绪不是自满，而是焦虑。而且逐日加深。

词汇

cold-eyed/冷静的；眼光表示冷淡的

complacency/自满；满足；自鸣得意

It is most evident in the astounding appetite for the safest of assets: government bonds. In Germany, where figures this week showed that the economy is shrinking, interest rates are negative all the way from overnight deposits to 30-year bonds. Investors who buy and hold bonds to maturity will make a guaranteed cash loss. In Switzerland negative yields extend all the way to 50-year bonds. Even in indebted and crisis-prone Italy, a ten-year bond gets you only 1.5%. In America, meanwhile, the curve is inverted—interest rates on ten-year bonds are lower than on three-month bills—a peculiar situation that is a harbinger of recession. Angst is evident elsewhere, too. The safe-haven dollar is up against many other currencies. Gold is at a six-year high. Copper prices, a proxy for industrial health, are down sharply. Despite Iran’s seizure of oil tankers in the Gulf, oil prices have sunk to $60 a barrel.

这种焦虑在政府债券——这种令人惊骇的欲望下所追求的最稳定的资产上得以凸显。在德国，本周的数据显示经济正在萎缩，从隔夜存款到30年期债券，利率通通为负。购买并持有债券至到期日的投资者将蒙受一定的现金损失。在瑞士，负利率一直延伸到50年期债券。即使在负债累累、危机频发的意大利，10年期债券的收益率也只有1.5%。与此同时，在美国，曲线是反向的——十年期债券的利率低于三个月期债券的利率——这种特殊的情况是经济衰退的先兆。焦虑在其他地方也很明显。避险货币美元兑许多其他货币走强。金价目前处于6年来的高点。作为工业健康指标的铜价大幅下跌。尽管伊朗在海湾地区扣押了油轮，但油价已跌至每桶60美元。

词汇

Astounding/令人震惊的；令人惊骇的

Peculiar/特殊的；独特的

Harbinger/先驱；前兆

Seizure/没收；夺取；捕获

Plenty of people fear that these strange signals portend a global recession. The storm clouds are certainly gathering. This week China said that industrial production is growing at its most sluggish pace since 2002. America’s decade-long expansion is the oldest on record so, whatever economists say, a downturn feels overdue. With interest rates already so low, the capacity to fight one is depleted. Investors fear that the world is turning into Japan, with a torpid economy that struggles to vanquish deflation, and is hence prone to going backwards.

许多人担心这些奇怪的信号预示着全球经济衰退。暴风雨的阴云确实在聚集。本周，中国表示，工业生产正以2002年以来最缓慢的速度增长。美国长达10年的经济扩张是有记录以来最持久的，因此，无论经济学家怎么说，经济衰退似乎早该到来了。由于利率已经如此之低，对抗通胀的能力已经耗尽。投资者担心，世界正在变成日本，日本经济疲软，难以消除通缩，因此很容易倒退。

词汇

Torpid/迟钝的，迟缓的

Yet a recession is so far a fear, not a reality. The world economy is still growing, albeit at a less healthy pace than in 2018. Its resilience rests on consumers, not least in America. Jobs are plentiful; wages are picking up; credit is still easy; and cheaper oil means there is more money to spend. What is more, there has been little sign of the heady exuberance that normally precedes a slump. The boards of public companies and the shareholders they ostensibly serve have played it safe. Businesses in aggregate are net savers. Investors have favoured firms that generate cash without needing to splurge on fixed assets. You see this in the vastly contrasting fortunes of America’s high-flying stockmarket, dominated by capital-light internet and services firms that throw off profits, and Europe’s, groaning under banks and under carmakers with factories that eat up capital. And within Europe’s stockmarkets a defensive stock, such as Nestlé, is trading at a towering premium to an industrial one such as Daimler.

然而，到目前为止，经济衰退只是一种恐惧，而不是现实。世界经济仍在增长，尽管增速不及2018年。它的恢复力取决于消费者，尤其是在美国。工作是丰富的;工资正在上涨;信贷仍然很容易;更便宜的石油意味着有更多的钱可以花。更重要的是，几乎没有迹象表明经济衰退之前通常会出现令人兴奋的繁荣景象。上市公司的董事会及其表面上为之服务的股东一直行事谨慎。总的来说，企业是净储蓄者。投资者青睐那些无需在固定资产上大肆挥霍就能产生现金的公司。你可以从美国股市的巨大反差中看到这一点。美国股市由资本较少的互联网和服务公司主导，这些公司利润微薄，而欧洲的股市则在银行和汽车制造商的控制下呻|吟，因为工厂消耗了大量资本。在欧洲的股票市场中，像雀巢这样的防御性股票相对于戴姆勒这样的工业股票有着极高的溢价。

词汇

Heady/兴奋的；任性的；性急的

Exuberance/丰富，茂盛；健康

Groan/呻|吟；哼哼

If there has been no boom and the world economy has not yet turned to bust, why then are markets so anxious? The best answer is that firms and markets are struggling to get to grips with uncertainty. This, not tariffs, is the greatest harm from the trade war between America and China. The boundaries of the dispute have stretched from imports of some industrial metals to broader categories of finished goods. New fronts, including technology supply-chains and, this month, currencies, have opened up. As Japan and South Korea let their historical differences spill over into trade, it is unclear who or what might be drawn in next. Because big investments are hard to reverse, firms are disinclined to press ahead with them. A proxy measure from JPMorgan Chase suggests that global capital spending is now falling. Evidence that investment is being curtailed is reflected in surveys of plunging business sentiment, in stalling manufacturing output worldwide and in the stuttering performance of industry-led economies, not least Germany.

如果没有繁荣，世界经济亦没有走向萧条，那么为什么市场如此焦虑呢?最好的答案是，公司和市场都在努力应对不确定性。这不是关税，而是（）贸|易|战带来的最大伤害。争端的范围已经从一些工业金属的进口延伸到更广泛的制成品类别。同时，包括技术供应链和本月的货币问题货币在内的新战线已经开放。随着日本和韩国将其历史分歧扩大到贸易领域，目前尚不清楚谁或什么事件将会成为下一个问题点。由于巨额投资难以撤回，企业不愿继续前进。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的一项替代指标显示，全球资本支出目前正在下降。投资减少的证据反映在企业信心骤降的调查中，反映在全球制造业产出停滞中，反映在工业主导经济体(尤其是德国)表现不佳中。

词汇

Curtail/简略；缩减；剥夺

Central banks are anxious, too, and easing policy as a result. In July the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in a decade as insurance against a downturn. It is likely to follow that with more cuts. Central banks in Brazil, India, New Zealand, Peru, the Philippines and Thailand have all reduced their benchmark interest rates since the Fed acted. The European Central Bank is likely to resume its bond-buying programme.

各国央行也感到焦虑，并因此放松了政策。今年7月，美国联邦储备委员会10年来首次下调利率，以防范经济低迷。接下来很可能会有更多的削减。自美联储采取行动以来，巴西、印度、新西兰、秘鲁、菲律宾和泰国的央行都下调了基准利率。欧洲央行很可能恢复其债券购买计划。

Despite these efforts, anxiety could turn to alarm, and sluggish growth descend into recession. Three warning signals are worth watching. First, the dollar, which is a barometer of risk appetite. The more investors reach for the safety of the greenback, the more they see danger ahead. Second come the trade negotiations between America and China. This week President Donald Trump unexpectedly delayed the tariffs announced on August 1st on some imports, raising hopes of a deal. That ought to be in his interests, as a strong economy is critical to his prospects of re-election next year. But he may nevertheless be misjudging the odds of a downturn. Mr Trump may also find that China decides to drag its feet, in the hope of scuppering his chances of a second term and of getting a better deal (or one likelier to stick) with his Democratic successor.

尽管做出了这些努力，但焦虑可能会转变为恐慌，缓慢的增长可能会陷入衰退。三个警告信号值得关注。首先是美元，它是风险偏好的晴雨表。投资者越是寻求美元的安全，他们就越能预见到未来的危险。其次是（）和（）之间的贸易谈判。本周，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)出人意料地推迟了8月1日宣布的对部分进口商品的关税，这增加了达成协议的希望。这应该符合他的利益，因为强劲的经济对他明年连任的前景至关重要。不过，他可能对经济衰退的可能性判断失误。特朗普还可能发现，（）决定拖延时间，希望借此扼杀他连任的机会，并与他的民主党继任者达成更好的协议(或更有可能坚持下去)。

词汇

Barometer/气压计；晴雨表

Scupper/使泡汤；使成泡影

The third thing to watch is corporate-bond yields in America. Financing costs remain remarkably low. But the spread—or extra yield—that investors require to hold risker corporate debt has begun to widen. If growing anxiety were to cause spreads to blow out, highly geared firms would find it costlier to roll over their debt. That could lead them to cut back on payrolls as well as investment in order to make their interest payments. The odds of a recession would then shorten.

第三个值得关注的是美国的公司债券收益率。融资成本仍然非常低。但投资者持有风险较高的公司债券所需的息差(或额外收益率)已开始扩大。如果日益增长的焦虑导致息差扩大，高负债公司将发现延期偿还债务的成本更高。这可能导致他们削减工资和投资，以支付利息。这样，经济衰退的可能性就会减小。

When people look back, they will find plenty of inconsistencies in the configuration of today’s asset prices. The extreme anxiety in bond markets may come to look like a form of recklessness: how could markets square the rise in populism with a fear of deflation, for instance? It is a strange thought that a sudden easing of today’s anxiety might lead to violent price changes—a surge in bond yields; a sideways crash in which high-priced defensive stocks slump and beaten-up cyclicals rally. Eventually there might even be too much exuberance. But just now, who worries about that?

当人们回头看时，他们会发现今天资产价格的配置有很多不一致之处。债券市场的极度焦虑可能看起来像是一种鲁莽行为:例如，市场如何将民粹主义的抬头与对通缩的担忧结合起来?一个奇怪的想法是，今天的焦虑突然缓解可能会导致剧烈的价格变化——债券收益率飙升;高价防御性股票暴跌，被击垮的周期性股票上涨由此导致一种横向崩盘。最终甚至可能出现过度繁荣。但是现在，谁会担心这个呢?

词汇

Recklessness/鲁莽；轻率；不顾一切，不顾后果