K型复苏 / K-shaped recovery

「释义」

当经济衰退后，经济的不同部分以不同的速度、时间或幅度复苏时，就会出现K型复苏。这与各领域、各行业、各群体均匀、一致的复苏形成鲜明对比。

K型复苏会导致经济结构或更广泛的社会结构发生变化，因为经济成果和关系在衰退前后发生了根本性的变化。

「应用场景」

过去几十年里，工作一直在不断变化。劳动力市场已日益两极分化，相对于入门级、低技能工作以及要求更高技能水平的高级工作而言，中等技能工作受到了侵蚀。新冠疫情可能加速了这一进程。自1990年以来，美国的每一次衰退之后都是失业型复苏。这一次，随着人工智能、算法和自动化对劳动力队伍的重塑，我们的结局可能更糟糕：K型复苏——那些处于顶端的人前景升腾，而其他每一个人则眼睁睁看着他们的财富暴跌。

Work has been changing over the last few decades. The labor market has grown increasingly polarized, with middle-skill jobs being eroded relative to entry-level, low-skill work, and high-level employment that requires greater skill levels. The Covid-19 crisis has likely accelerated the process. Since 1990, every U.S. recession has been followed by a jobless recovery. This time, as AI, algorithms, and automation reshape the workforce, we may end up with something worse: a K-shaped recovery — where the prospects of those at the top soar, and everyone else sees their fortunes dive.

这种新的数字鸿沟是有机会获得高等教育、领导力指导和工作经验的员工与那些没有机会的人之间不断拉大的差距。在我最近的新书《算法领导者》中，我探讨了一个特别可怕的场景：在为算法工作的大众、拥有设计和训练算法系统的技能和能力的专业特权阶层，以及拥有管理世界的算法平台的少数超级富有贵族之间，存在着阶级鸿沟。

The new digital divide is a widening gap between workers with access to higher education, Leadership mentoring, and job experience — and those without. In my recent book, The Algorithmic Leader, I explore one particularly dire scenario: a class-based divide between the masses who work for algorithms, a privileged professional class who have the skills and capabilities to design and train algorithmic systems, and a small, ultra-wealthy aristocracy, who own the algorithmic platforms that run the world.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2020年12月刊《算法正加剧经济不平等》

迈克·沃尔什(Mike Walsh)丨文

马冰仑 丨编辑